GD Politics Podcast Summary

Title: The Parties Craft Their Midterm Messages
Host: Galen Druke
Guests: Jacob Hrabashkin (Deputy Editor, Inside Elections) and Leah Askarinam (Reporter, Associated Press)
Release Date: July 7, 2025

1. Introduction and Acknowledgments

Galen Druke opens the episode by expressing solidarity with those affected by the flash flooding in Texas, emphasizing the severity of the situation and the hope for everyone's safety as more floods approach.

2. Republican Passage of the Tax and Spending Bill

Negotiations and Internal Dynamics

Leah Askarinam provides an in-depth analysis of how Republicans managed to pass a contentious tax and spending bill, previously known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act." Despite significant opposition within both the House and Senate, the bill was signed by July 4th.

• Key Factors:
  • Leadership Influence: "Donald Trump, the President… Add on Mike Johnson, Speaker Mike Johnson to that as well, who is in kind of constant communication with the president throughout this entire process" (03:30).
  • Diverse Republican Coalitions: The bill's passage involved a complex coalition of suburban Republicans concerned about state and local tax (SALT) deductions, members worried about Medicaid cuts, and the Freedom Caucus.
  • Negotiation Tactics: Constant negotiations were likened to "everybody was a Joe Manchin when Democrats had that narrow majority."

Role of Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson

Leah highlights President Trump's directive to pass the bill by July 4th as a pivotal moment that exerted immense pressure on Republican members, leading to the bill's eventual passage despite internal disagreements. Speaker Mike Johnson played a critical role in keeping the negotiations alive until the deadline.

• Notable Quote: "They had to pass a bill by July 4th because Donald Trump said they had to pass a bill by July 4th." (06:16)

Members' Reactions and Strategic Decisions

Jacob Hrabashkin discusses the behavior of specific Republican members, such as Victoria Spartz, who initially opposed the bill but ultimately supported it under political pressure. His analysis suggests that political consequences outweighed ideological stances for many members.

• Notable Quote: "Victoria Spartz … say adamantly that she is against something and then very quickly change her mind and come around on whatever leadership needs her to do." (07:18)

3. Republican Messaging Strategy on the Bill

Economic Benefits vs. Medicaid Cuts

The discussion shifts to how Republicans intend to sell the recently passed bill to the public. Galen Druke raises concerns about the negative perceptions surrounding the bill, especially related to Medicaid cuts and healthcare restrictions.

• Messaging Focus: Republicans are likely to emphasize tax cuts and border security as primary benefits, downplaying or avoiding discussions on Medicaid and healthcare to prevent backlash.
• Democratic Counter-Messaging: Democrats are expected to highlight the negative impacts on healthcare and argue that the bill favors the wealthy over the poor.

Public Perception and Historical Comparisons

Jacob Hrabashkin draws parallels between the current bill and past legislation like Obamacare and the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, suggesting that the timing of the bill's implementation may not shield Republicans from a midterm backlash.

• Notable Quote: "Obamacare was only 3 points underwater in November of 2010. … But this bill is significantly less popular than Obamacare was in, in either 2010 or 2014." (28:06)

4. Elon Musk's America Party Announcement

Potential Optimistic Scenarios

Elon Musk's announcement to start the "America Party" is examined, with Leah Askarinam and Jacob Hrabashkin discussing possible best-case outcomes.

• Leah's Perspective: A new third-party option could energize specific voter bases and elevate particular issues onto the national stage.

  • Notable Quote: "Something that, like chocolate vanilla, but you can get like a chocolate vanilla swirl… more options are great." (31:31)

• Jacob's Perspective: Drawing parallels to Ross Perot's movement, he outlines how significant financial backing and issue-focused platforms could lead to modest electoral successes.

  • Notable Quote: "Ross Perot wins 19% of the vote in the 1992 election… that's kind of the high watermark of any third party." (32:44)

Potential Pessimistic Outcomes

The guests also explore worst-case scenarios where the America Party fails to register, potentially acting as a spoiler in key races and inadvertently aiding Democratic victories.

• Notable Quote: "The biggest role that a third party plays is a spoiler candidate… end up with, actually if you had to choose one of the two other options, the one that you like less ends up winning." (37:02)

5. Trump's Liberation Day Tariffs

Market Reactions and Political Implications

The conversation turns to the status of President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs. Galen Druke notes the betting markets' strong belief that tariffs will be removed before the 90-day deadline, labeling it as a likely "taco."

• Leah's Insight: Despite mixed economic indicators, Trump’s messaging around tariffs appeals to his base by emphasizing strength and fairness in international trade.
  • Notable Quote: "It's a way of performing that strength… appealing to some of his base and also to some people who… subscribed to the more social, cultural movement around Trump." (42:27)

Messaging and Public Perception

Jacob Hrabashkin analyzes the disconnect between economic indicators and public perception, noting that despite a market rebound, public approval of Trump's handling of trade remains low.

• Notable Quote: "Trump is negative 12 on jobs in the economy, he's negative 20 on trade and he's negative 23 on inflation and cost of living… I don't think that that's tenable." (44:25)

6. Trump's Influence on the Republican Party

Impact on Midterms and Beyond

The discussion highlights the intertwined fate of Trump and the Republican Party, especially as Trump is unlikely to run for president again. His continued influence, both financially and politically, remains a significant factor for Republicans' midterm strategies.

• Jacob's Analysis: Trump's active involvement in endorsing or opposing Republican members can sway electoral outcomes, keeping the party's direction closely aligned with his preferences.
  • Notable Quote: "Trump… is not a passive actor in all of this… he's already going after one sitting member of Congress of his own party… He is going to project his messaging through a whole bunch of other means." (51:19)

Democrats' Strategy Against Trump-Linked Republicans

The guests debate whether Democrats should focus on discrediting Trump to undermine Republican support or shift the narrative to target congressional Republicans independently.

• Leah's Insight: Democrats may need to adopt a comprehensive messaging strategy that addresses multiple issues, including Medicaid, to build distrust in the Republican Party as a whole.
  • Notable Quote: "That's going to be like a mix of Medicaid conversations and the plane and, you know, whatever else is going on this time next year." (54:03)

7. Conclusion

Galen Druke wraps up the episode by acknowledging that the podcast did not cover all planned topics, such as the America's semi-quincentennial birthday trivia game. He encourages listeners to become paid subscribers for expanded content and thanks his guests for their insights.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• "They had to pass a bill by July 4th because Donald Trump said they had to pass a bill by July 4th." — Leah Askarinam (06:16)

• "Victoria Spartz … say adamantly that she is against something and then very quickly change her mind and come around on whatever leadership needs her to do." — Jacob Hrabashkin (07:18)

• "Obamacare was only 3 points underwater in November of 2010. … But this bill is significantly less popular than Obamacare was in, in either 2010 or 2014." — Jacob Hrabashkin (28:06)

• "Something that, like chocolate vanilla, but you can get like a chocolate vanilla swirl… more options are great." — Leah Askarinam (31:31)

• "The biggest role that a third party plays is a spoiler candidate… end up with, actually if you had to choose one of the two other options, the one that you like less ends up winning." — Leah Askarinam (37:02)

• "It's a way of performing that strength… appealing to some of his base and also to some people who… subscribed to the more social, cultural movement around Trump." — Leah Askarinam (42:27)

• "Trump is negative 12 on jobs in the economy, he's negative 20 on trade and he's negative 23 on inflation and cost of living… I don't think that that's tenable." — Jacob Hrabashkin (44:25)

• "Trump… is not a passive actor in all of this… he's already going after one sitting member of Congress of his own party… He is going to project his messaging through a whole bunch of other means." — Jacob Hrabashkin (51:19)

• "That's going to be like a mix of Medicaid conversations and the plane and, you know, whatever else is going on this time next year." — Leah Askarinam (54:03)

Note: The timestamps reference the minutes and seconds within the provided transcript.