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A
Hey there listeners.
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Before we get started, I wanted to let you know that we have a live show coming up on Wednesday, March.
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4Th at the Comedy Cellar in New York with Nate Silver and Claire Malone.
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If you're an elections nerd, you might have noticed March 4, the day after.
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The Texas primaries, which is also the.
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Topic of today's podcast. But that means we are going to have results from the primaries in Texas. It is the kickoff to the 2026 primary cycle.
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I'm sure there will be plenty of.
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Drama to discuss at the live show. We're we may also get around to our 2028 GOP primary draft. In any case, I'm going to drop a link in today's show notes and.
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I hope to see you there.
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Hello and welcome to the GD Politics Podcast.
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I am Galen Daruk.
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2026 primary season is starting with a bang in just 33 weeks, Texans will weigh in on the Democrat and Republican they'd like to see face off in a potentially competitive Senate election this fall. Arkansas and North Carolina will also head to the polls on March 3, but few contests across the country quite compare to the matchups in Texas. On the Democratic side, it's primarily State Representative James Talarico and Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. On the Republican side, it's incumbent Senator John Cornyn, State Attorney General Ken Paxton and Congressman Wesley Hunt. Both Republican and Democratic primaries feature some similarities a better funded and more mild mannered establishment favorite on one side in Talarico and Cornyn, and a more bombastic presence known for riling up the base on the other in Crockett and Paxton. Of course, there are plenty of differences too, which we will get into today. For one, the Republican primary looks likely to be heading to a runoff. This is all coming shortly after a special state Senate election in historically Republican Tarrant County, Texas resulted in a 30 percentage point swing to the left. That gives Democrats some hope in their pursuit of winning a Senate race in Texas for the first time since 1988. But there's plenty of disagreement within the party over what that path might look like and whether it's possible altogether. So today we're going to take a look at both Senate primaries in Texas and as well as the broader political environment in the state at a time when one of Republicans biggest success stories, gains with the Latino electorate, looks seriously imperilable. Here with me to do that is Patrick Svitek. He's a political reporter who's long covered Texas at the Texas Tribune and Houston Chronicle and most recently covered national politics.
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At The Washington Post.
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So, Patrick, welcome to the podcast.
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C
Thanks so much for having me.
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I also want to say, Patrick, I'm sure plenty of listeners heard that there were big layoffs at the Washington Post last week. About a third of the staff was let go. And I'm sad to say that, Patrick, you were one of those people. It's a really big loss for the Post. I, I can say I know how it feels. Happened to me about a year ago. Exactly. So I wish you all the best and I'm sure that you're going to land on your feet in no time. And I'm very happy that you were still able to, to take the time to join me here today. So thanks, Patrick.
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Yeah, thanks so much. I appreciate you thinking to me.
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Absolutely.
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Okay, so let's talk about Texas.
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There's been plenty of chatter about that special Senate race in Tarrant County.
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So I just want to start with really broad terms.
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How would you describe the political environment in Texas today?
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C
Look, I think it's, it's very competitive. And the special election upset that you just referenced was the latest example of that. This was a state Senate district that Donald Trump in the most recent presidential election carried by 17 percentage points. And the Democrat not only won, but won by a pretty comfortable margin. And so I think this was a wake up call to Texas Republicans. Some of them even said that publicly on the record afterward. And it shows that they have work to do if they want to avoid, you know, further upsets in the midterms in the state, either in the statewide contests or, you know, even in some of these newly drawn U.S. house seats in Texas that they were supposed to draw them so that they would, you know, be safe Republican. But I think three out of five of those new House seats, you could make a credible case that they're going to be competitive in a general election in this current environment.
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A
And is that specifically because of the Latino electorate?
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C
Two out of the three seats that I just referenced are deep in South Texas. At least two out of those three, the third, you can make a case whether it's South Texas or not. But two out of three are deep in South Texas, are predominantly Hispanic districts, and they feature Latino Democrats in Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar, who are very much in touch with the Hispanic voters in their district. They're generally more moderate Democrats, and they've been able to survive politically over these past few cycles, even as some of the Latino voters in their districts have shifted toward the Republicans. So I would not bet against them, even though their districts have been Redrawn.
- [04:52]
A
I want to talk a little bit about how some national issues are reverberating through Texas politics, like immigration, cost of living, and things like that. But let's talk about the primaries before we get carried away with some of that stuff. And we'll begin on the Republican side because the drama has been simmering there quite a bit longer than on the Democratic side. So according to the Real Clear Politics average, ken Paxton has 30% support amongst Republican primary voters in Texas.
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John Cornyn has 28% support, and Wesley.
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Hunt has 20% support. And I want to emphasize here that there's a lot of differentiation in the polls underneath those averages, but either way, it looks somewhat competitive at this point. We'll talk about everyone. But just to start, why is incumbent John Cornyn so vulnerable?
- [05:43]
C
I think you could, you know, many would say, many of his critics would say is that he's. He's fallen out of step with the current political moment in the Republican Party. You know, while he has been generally supportive of Donald Trump over the years of his policies, of his campaigns, he has not been as vocal or aggressive in his support for Trump and his policies as, say, someone like Attorney General Ken Paxton, one of his primary opponents. Paxton, among the statewide officials in Texas, has been one of Trump's most vocal cheerleaders and has really, over the years, I think, been able to survive political scandals and controversies because of how closely he has tied himself to Trump. For example, Paxton in 2023 was impeached by the State House for allegations of abuse of office, and that then went to a impeachment trial in the State Senate, where he was ultimately acquitted. And I think a big part of that was because Trump got involved in the impeachment trial by urging senators to vote to acquit Paxton. And he, you know, Trump made it almost like a referendum on, you know, whether you support Trump in Texas. Are you going to acquit or convict Ken Paxton? So that's all just to say. And we could talk about many of Ken Paxton's scandals, but that's all just to say he's been a uniquely pro Trump figure in Texas. He's, you know, for example, he spoke at the rally before the January 6 riot at the Capitol. You know, he filed the lawsuit asking the Supreme Court to overturn the 2020 election results in four battleground states. So he's had this. This really close public association with Trump over the years that has allowed him to persevere politically and get through a number of political setbacks that may have been more Fatal. Politically speaking to other politicians, my impression.
- [07:37]
A
Of Texas Republicanism has historically been a little bit different. You know, George Bush, Rick Perry, they're probably build, baby, build, drill, baby, drill, whatever, kind of pro growth, that kind of stuff. Not always getting so mired down in the culture wars, still capable of winning large swaths of Hispanic voters and a highly diverse, highly urban state. And Cornyn, to me, somewhat represents that brand of Republicanism. Is this a story of Texas changing the Republican Party?
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Changing Cornyn himself changing, changing. You know, like, it's in some ways.
- [08:11]
A
Hard to imagine John Cornyn being so vulnerable, spending so much money, being, you know, currently pulling worse than Ken Paxton. But at the same time, then you describe sort of all that that Paxton provides in. In this sort of new strain of the Republican Party. And it also makes sense as well.
- [08:27]
C
Yeah, I mean, I think this story or this. This race definitely puts on display how the Texas Republican Party has changed and shifted away from the political identity of someone like John Cornyn, who histor more focused on fiscal conservatism, national security, a sound foreign policy where we support our allies. And then you look at someone like Ken Paxton, who is echoing Trump in terms of political retribution, is more skeptical of US Involvement in foreign affairs, and takes a much more aggressive line on border security, aggressive attack on border security, for example. And so you do see in this race how the text Texas Republican Party has changed over the years. And, you know, I would argue that this has been a gradual change, that, you know, the first chapter of it was really the Tea Party movement in Texas as a massive red state. The Tea Party movement obviously had an outsized impact in a place like Texas, and it gave us Republican celebrities in Texas, like Ted Cruz, for example. And with that introduced, you know, a much more aggressive form of conservatism that certainly stuck to some of the more traditional principles we were just talking about. But definitely the style became more pugilistic and more willing, more confrontational and less willing to compromise with not just Democrats, but some members of their own party. And so I think that's a key step in all of this. Obviously, that's played out nationally, but especially in Texas. The Tea Party movement, the rise of people like Ted Cruz, and then the advent of Trump and Trumpism, you know, I think has really, you know, those are the chapters of this political transformation that we're describing. And I should note that Ken Packer Buxton is an original, almost original Tea Party star in Texas. I mean, he was elected state attorney general in 2014, beating a clearly more establishment Republican politician in the primary. He benefited from at least the perception of support from Ted Cruz at the time, who was riding high after defeating an incumbent in the 2012 Senate race. And so, you know, this political trajectory we're talking about, you know, goes back, you know, definitely pre Trump in Texas to that Tea Party movement, and that, that moment in Texas.
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A
Are the divisions within the Texas Republican Party clear in the primary electorate? Like, is it clear who a Cornyn supporter is versus a Paxton supporter versus a Wesley Hunt supporter?
- [10:57]
C
Yeah. Paxton would tell you that he's trying to capture that Trump coalition in Texas, which are, yes, you know, more MAGA aligned voters in terms of the ideology we just talked about, but also those more low propensity voters that President Trump has been able to reach in his presidential elections and overperform with. And, you know, Cornyn would tell you, you know, or maybe he wouldn't tell you, but I would tell you that he's certainly, you know, trying to probably carve a more traditional path through this primary electorate, you know, trying to obviously get the support of the more traditional Republicans and then get the support of the traditional conservative Republicans, which I would separate as a different block who are uneasy with supporting Ken Paxton, even if they may have some ideological overlap with him. And the reason they'd be uneasy is because of just all his ethical, personal, moral lapses in judgment over the years and different scandals that he's been through. So, you know, that's, I think, probably the coalition that Cornyn's looking at and.
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A
Who'S a Wesley Hunt voter.
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C
I think it's someone who is really fatigued by how much fighting has already gone on between John Cornyn and Ken Paxton. It's someone who definitely does not view themselves as a more traditional Republican like John Cornyn, maybe views themselves as more ideologically aligned with Ken Paxton, but still doesn't like his personal baggage. And maybe they're concerned about his ability to win the November election. That's kind of the Wesley Hunt supporter right now. And in terms of the positive case that person would make for Wesley Hunt, they would say, you know, he's really good on Trump. He's been very loyal to Trump. He's, you know, got a conservative voting record and he's young. I mean, Wesley Hunt has increasingly made the case that, you know, he's the youngest, by far, far the youngest of these three candidates, and that he would represent kind of the next generation of pro Trump conservatism in Texas. And so, you know, you put that all together and you totally see why Someone like Wesley Hunt would be, you know, enticed to enter this race relatively late like he did.
- [12:54]
A
The spending differential is pretty phenomenal in this case. I'm going to quote from a recent New York Times article. Allies of Mr. Cornyn have spent about $50 million on advertising on his behalf since last July, an unheard of sum to support a fourth term incumbent running reelection in a primary contest. What impact has all that money had? $50 million in a primary before it may even go to a runoff?
- [13:21]
C
Yeah, I mean, it looks like the spending was being somewhat effective this summer and this in early this fall in terms of at least propping Cornyn up a little bit and boosting his, his numbers a little bit. But then Wesley Hunt got in the race, and I think Wesley Hunt scrambled a lot of this. He made it much more likely that there would be a primary runoff here. And so, you know, point, I think the effect of the spending is a little fuzzier. Now. What we're seeing, I think, is an effort by both Paxton and Cornyn and their allies to make sure that Wesley Hunt does not make it into the runoff. And so I think right now, as of as we're sitting today, some of the, you know, a good chunk of the money is being directed against Hunt to make sure he doesn't make it in the runoff. Because let's be clear, Cornyn wants to face Paxton in the runoff. Paxton wants to face Corn in the runoff. That is the biggest contrast here. They both think they have a shot against each other in the runoff. Hunt is more of a wild card in the runoff. And so you could understand why both Cornyn and Paxton and Slash or their allied groups are trying to keep Hunt out of the runoff.
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A
Okay, let's talk a little bit about the Democratic primary and then we'll come back and put the two pieces together and talk about what a general matchup could look like. According to the Real Clear Politics average, James Talarico and Jasmine Crockett are exactly tied at 41%. And I'll say the same thing here that I said with the Republicans. There's a lot of variation underneath that. So our University of Houston poll that came out today showed Crockett with a pretty healthy lead, I think about 10 percentage points. A week or two ago, the reverse was the case. So really there's one, not a ton of polling in these primaries. And also the polling that does exist is pretty varied. You published a profile of James Talarico actually today. He's been running a bit longer than Jasmine Crockett. He announced his campaign back in September. What is his sort of theory of the case?
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C
It's interesting you mentioned the profile because we started putting that together months ago, even before Crockett got into the race. And I kind of had to reorient it a little bit. It just shows how impactful Crockett's entrance into the race has been. She got in on the last day of filing and really shook up this race and, you know, took this debate about electability in the November election, which was already simmering in the primary when Talarico was in it, and turned it into an all out, I guess, boil, to extend the metaphor. And so, you know, this has become, you know, an incredibly competitive and heated primary ever since she got in.
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A
Folks may be familiar with some of the debates going on within the Democratic Party about electability. James Talariko talks about building a big tent party. Crockett says it doesn't matter when you have a D in front of your name, no matter what. Folks pay attention to that when they're in the voting booth, and it's more important to juice turnout. This isn't a new debate within the Democratic Party. Do you sort of, based on your own familiarity with the state and its demographics, have an idea of which theory better suits the state?
- [16:22]
C
This is a very unsatisfying answer, but given how, given how long Democrats have been locked out from statewide office in Texas, I think you can make a credible case. You can argue a credible case. Either way, in the absence of a recent Democratic statewide victory in Texas, the next best thing we could probably look at is who's come the closest in recent history. And you look at the name that comes to mind immediately is Beto O'. Rourke. In 2018, he came within 3 percentage points of beating Ted Cruz, also in a midterm environment, much like the one that we're currently in now. So, you know, so that's what I think about in terms of the metric to maybe judge them against just even just anecdotally. And you look at you. So you ask yourself then, okay, if Beto O' Rourke in 2018 is the metric to maybe look at here, to judge them by what kind of campaign did Beto o' Rourke run? And the answer is, it was a very inclusive campaign. It was a campaign where he had town halls, where they didn't vet the attendees, where, you know, I don't think they vetted questions. Maybe, maybe at the very height of the campaign, you know, they were looking at some of the questions. But for the most Part these were come one, come all town halls. He had, there were Republicans there, self identified Republicans there who confronted him about various issues. They had some heated moments. And so, you know, I look back at that and I think of how Inclusive Better Works campaign is and it, it showed that, you know, you cannot afford in Texas to act like any part of the electorate is, is, is worth casting aside or saying it's not worth chasing that vote. You have to go for all of it as a Democrat in Texas. And so look, I mean some people think that obviously Jasmine Crockett is, is not running in that mold, that she is not being, you know, as inclusive because she's been dismissive of the need to win over Republicans. You know, her argument would be, of course, you know, maybe I'm not chasing Republicans as hard as James Talarico, but I'm trying to activate new voters that are out there. And look, you know, that's, we've heard that from Democratic statewide candidates in Texas for a long time and it's not gonna be true until it's true. So, you know, it's not gonna, you know, it's something to be skeptical of because it hasn't necessarily led to statewide victory in the past. But you know, it is not a non credible case for her to make for her electability that, you know, we've been chasing Republican voters for too long. Maybe we expanding the electorate. But it is going to take, you know, anyone who wants to chase that, that dream of expanding the electorate, it is going to take a lot of money, more so than we've seen, you know, people like Beto o' Rourke raised before a lot of money, a lot of discipline and a lot of commitment to a statewide organizing program. And so it's, it's definitely, I think, an uphill battle to center your campaign on trying to activate a new electorate as a priority over reaching out to Republican voters. Now, you asked about James Talarico. He would tell you that, you know, he's focused on all of it, that he's focused on reaching Republicans, he's focused on turning out Democrats and he's focused on finding new voters. So, you know, that's probably what he would say about it. But it's no doubt. It's just, it's a debate that has been just coursing through Texas politics over these last several statewide election cycles of what is the best way to do that. And you know, again, I look back at better work in 2018, it was a pretty inclusive campaign and you know, a hallmark of it was how he was willing to talk to pretty much anyone who was interested in hearing his message.
- [19:49]
A
You mentioned the amount of money that it would take to boost turnout, particularly for a Democrat who might argue that the pathway to statewide victory is through reducing turnout as opposed to winning over swing voters. Notice published a report today about the differential in how much Talarico and Crockett are raising and spending. And so I just want to quote from them. Here they write, Representative Jasmine Crockett's post Senate campaign announcement fundraising surge never materialized. She's been outspent nearly 19 to 1 on political ads this year and hasn't run a single broadcast ad as of early February. And some Democrats in communication with her campaign aren't sure who exactly is in charge of it. Even by her own advisor's admission, Crockett is not running a traditional campaign. They want to say Talarico's spending edge so far in the primary is alarming to some Crockett supporters.
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B
His campaign has spent almost 4.9 million this year, according to Ad Impact, compared.
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A
To 260,000 from Crockett's campaign. Now, the real kicker from this whole.
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B
Report reads as follows.
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A
The contrast with Talarico's campaign is so stark that the primary amounted to a political science experiment set to test how much campaigns even matter in a Democratic primary. And that was a quote from a Democratic operative to notice. I guess the question here is, can Jasmine Crockett win a Democratic primary and maybe even a general election based on her name recognition, her name ID alone? What do you make of that, as somebody who's covered Texas politics for a long time?
- [21:25]
C
Well, I think the polling tells us that obviously she has higher name ID than James Talarico. And the ballot test in, in polling, including polling that we saw hours before this podcast was taped, shows that she can win on the ballot. You know, and the high name idea is obviously an asset in that, you know, what's going on with her campaign right now. You know, I view as probably a byproduct of her late entrance in the race, which by her own admission publicly was not decided up until the last minute. It was, we know it was announced the last minute, but she's even said publicly it was not decided up until the last minute. And, you know, know, even if you have high name ID in Texas, the primary is so early, it's March 3, you know, that you cannot rest on your laurels, you know, if you get on in on the last day, you have to take advantage of that space between, you know, I think it's the second Monday in December, which is usually the filing deadline. And you have to take advantage of the space between that, that date and through the holidays and get ready to run a really serious and sophisticated primary campaign in those next two months. And so I think some of the things you're reading in that story are maybe just because of the last minute decision to not last minute decision to get into the race. But, you know, obviously James Talarico has had more time to put together a more sophisticated campaign, and I think you're seeing that right now, and that's reflected in that piece.
- [22:43]
A
One of the first major points of drama in this primary was over the issue of race and that Colin Allred, the Democratic nominee from the last Senate race in Texas, was accusing James Talarico of calling him a mediocre black man, which brought to the fore that Jasmine Crockett is a black woman, James Tallarico is a white man, and which again, gets at some long running debates within the Democratic Party of whether, like, who is more electable, whether or not it's fair to really emphasize those considerations, whether, you know, the Democratic Party is in a new space from where it was, say, even five years ago, where identity was front and center, yada, yada, yada. How is this controversy being processed within Texas politics?
- [23:34]
C
I think that, you know, Texas Democrats are watching this play out, maybe cringing at it, but they're also, you know, just cringing at watching the two candidates go after each other or their supporters go after each other in some cases, on such a sensitive and personal issue. You know, but I, I, you know, I do think it's, it's relevant. You know, as in other states, black voters are a very key voting bloc in Texas, especially in Democratic primaries. And Jasmine Crockett derives a lot of her support from black voters in Texas, which we've seen in, in multiple polls, including the one that just came out hours before our taping. And so, you know, if you're James Talarico, you know, this is an incredibly sensitive issue for you to navigate. And even if, you know, you privately don't like the way that Crockett or her supporters are handling this issue or trying to leverage it against you. If you're James Talarico, you have to, you know, you have to publicly be sensitive to this and ultimately deferential and not seen as doing anything that could alienate black voters because it is just such a sensitive issue inside the Democratic primary.
- [24:42]
A
The Democratic primary electorate in Texas. The University of Houston had to sort of model what it would look like demographically when it published the poll that you're talking about that came out Monday, February 9th. And so they project that likely voters in the Democratic primary, 44% of them are white, 28% are Latino, 23% black, 5% other. So, of course, black voters play a big role in the primary. That's about, you know, a Democratic primary. Nationally, black voters make up about 20%. Latino voters make up a much larger portion of the Democratic primary electorate in Texas than they do nationally. Nationally, it's something like 10%. In Texas, it's closer to 30%. Is it clear the role that Latino voters are playing in the Democratic primary?
- [25:35]
C
Some of the polling has shown that James Talarico is polling more strongly with Hispanic voters. And we've seen some very early and obvious efforts for him to reach out to Hispanic voters in terms of where he's campaigning and who he's campaigning with. I think that he clearly sees a path to winning the nomination, his party's nomination, that runs through Hispanic voters. Now, at the same time, that's not to discount anything that Jasmine Crockett has been doing. I know that her campaign has gotten increasingly serious about Hispanic voter outreach, but I do think Hispanic voters will be key. Ultimately. I assume you will see some actual paid advertising highlighting the comments that Jasmine Crockett made either last year or the year before in a magazine interview where she seemed to suggest that, you know, some of Hispanic voters of Trump had a, quote, you know, slave mentality. I know she's since then said it's taken out of context. I sought to clarify in other ways, but I would not be surprised if, you know, as part of the last minute avalanche of ads that we see in the race, we see some very targeted ads toward the Hispanic community with those comments.
- [26:35]
A
How has the increase in salience of the issue of immigration and immigration enforcement tactics affected the Democratic primary and frankly, the Republican primary for that matter as well?
- [26:46]
C
In the Democratic primary, it has led both Crockett and Talarico to take, you know, similarly and newly aggressive rhetorical tones toward ice. You know, I don't think either, I'm going to say talking about abolishing ice, the agency, but they are echoing other Democrats and saying they want to tear down, you know, Donald Trump's ice, the way that Donald Trump is using ice, and they don't, they don't want to, to continue in this form. And so, you know, it's obviously influenced the intensity of the rhetoric against ICE on the Democratic side and on the Republican side. You know, I'VE actually been surprised, I think, that Cornyn and Paxton and Hunt have not been more vocal in support of ice. I think they've recently been, you know, supportive of ICE and trying to, you know, align themselves with the administration and the administration's messaging on ICE right now. But I think it goes to show, you know, just the political peril right now in backing ice, that the Republican candidates in this Senate primary in such a red state are not, like, going all out to defend ice. And so that's what I've noticed as that issues come to the fore.
- [27:52]
A
How much does it matter who wins the primaries for who ultimately holds this Senate seat in the next Senate?
- [28:00]
C
You know, I think it matters a lot who's the nominee. You know, the thing that I think has become increasingly frustrating to some of the candidates is the polling shows that this could be a competitive race no matter who the nominee is. So I guess that's actually the counterfactual. The counter argument to what you just said is that maybe it doesn't matter who wins the primary. It's gonna be a competitive race no matter what. But the. The University of Houston poll that recently came out, you know, showed that, you know, it tested a number of configurations for the general election. Right. It was like Crockett versus Corn, Talarico versus Cornyn, Talarico versus Paxton, Crockett versus Paxton. And. And they were all like single digit races in November. And I think that obviously, if that polling continues, again, that's just one poll, so I don't want to read too much into it. But if that polling continues, that obviously robs Cornyn of the argument that he's the most electable Republican in November. It robs Talarico of his electability argument. And so it matters, obviously, because Crockett's a different. Different style of Democrat from Talarico, and Cornyn's obviously a different style of Republican from Paxton.
- [29:05]
A
Yeah. And of course, you have to actually see the general election play out and have all those attack ads cut and whatnot. You mentioned one of the reasons that Ken Paxton is seen as more vulnerable in a general election because of his impeachment trial. What is the broader argument for why Ken Paxton is, you know, it would be. It would be so dangerous for Republicans to nominate Ken Paxton.
- [29:28]
C
And. Well, look, I mean, the argument that, you know, D.C. republicans and Cornyn's allies are making is that Paxton just has too much personal baggage. And we don't even know yet the extent to which Paxton has personal baggage. And that was, I think, evidenced by the fact much earlier in this race that seemingly out of nowhere, his wife announced on Twitter one day that they were getting divorced. So, you know, they have, they do have a credible case to make that, like, there could still be more, more layers to this, this onion, you know. And so that's their, their main argument for why Ken Paxton would be vulnerable in a general election to a Democrat, more vulnerable than Cornyn, who doesn't have, as far as I know, at least as many, you know, ethical or moral issues to grapple with.
- [30:11]
A
As far as Jasmine Crockett goes, some of her comments have gotten her into trouble. She called Governor Greg Abbott, Governor Hot Wheels. He uses a wheelchair. She called Marjorie Taylor Greene or referred to her as bleach blonde, bad built, butch body in Congress. Is it generally that she says offensive things? Is it something more specific to James Tallarigo's theory of the case as to sort of why he is more electable? Like, what are, what are the vulnerabilities that Democrats who don't want to see Jasmine Crockett make it to the general election that they'd emphasize for the Democratic.
- [30:48]
C
Skeptics of Crockett's electability? It is two pronged. It is those comments, like the ones you reference, will make it just difficult to run a race day to day because of the Republicans constantly bringing up those comments and broadcasting them to the Texas electorate. But number two, I think they're just troubled by what she has said publicly about what she views as her path to winning this race, the dismissive comments she's made about prioritizing, reaching out to Republican voters, for example. And so to Talarico's supporters, who obviously have a bit of a different theory of the case, that that is alarming. I mean, they believe that the nominee is going to have to consider it a priority to reach out to Republican voters.
- [31:27]
A
And that University of Houston poll did give us some good insight into, you know, just how Republican Texas remains as compared to the rest of the country. So Donald Trump's approval rating in that poll was net negative one. So 49% of Texans approve, 50% disapprove. That compares nationally to Donald Trump's approval rating being net negative. Right. You know, on issues like immigration and border security, Trump is fully underwater nationally. He's still above water in Texas. So 51% approve, 47% disapprove. The place where he gets into a lot of trouble in Texas, according to this polling at least, is, you know, inflation on the cost of living. So he's, you know, net negative 12 on inflation, on the cost of living, with 43% approving, 55% disapproving. But I mean, I guess just to give some insight into this is not, this race isn't being run in, you know, Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. This is a, this is a different animal, right?
- [32:27]
C
Yeah, absolutely. And honestly, this has been in the polling that I've followed in Texas for many years. This is, you know, Trump's image has been, you know, relatively stable compared to other states that I track, especially battleground states. You know, people in Texas, I think, have pretty much settled on their opinion of Donald Trump. And, you know, there's not much that's going to change that. And so to your broader point, y, they are not running this race against the backdrop of a Republican president who's overwhelmingly popular or unpopular in the state. And I think that has to probably factor into how they think about reaching out to his supporters in Texas.
- [33:00]
A
So Trump won't be on the ballot this November, but Greg Abbott will be. What other races are you focused on in Texas this fall?
- [33:08]
C
Yeah, I mean, I'm actually speaking of statewide contests. I'm actually interested in the contest to replace Ken Paxton as Attorney General. The Attorney General's office in Texas is a highly regarded stepping stone to higher office number one in terms of politics. But also, I mean, it employs a lot of people. It is, you know, kind of considered the tip of the spear in conservative legal circles nationwide. And, you know, it can be a very strong ally during a Republican administration and it can be a very effective thorn in the side of a Democratic administration or a Democratic led, you know, Congress, for example. So, you know, who holds that office is, is very important for, you know, politically and legally. And so and you have a, you have a very competitive race to replace Paxton, the Republican primary. It includes Congressman Chip Roy. It includes a former Paxton staffer, Aaron Reitz, includes a state senator, Mace Middleton, another state senator, Joan Huffman. Paxton has endorsed his former staffer. You know, Chip Roy benefits from very high name ID because of, you know, how outspoken he's been on various issues in Washington. You know, obviously, Chip Roy has to contend with having differences with Donald Trump in the past. And so I'm very interested in, in that primary as well, just because it's such an, it's such an important office for politics and the law in Texas and nationally. A few other races that I'm interested in are some of the incumbent primary challenges that are happening at the House level in Texas. Tony Gonzalez, who's a Republican who represents parts of south and West Texas is in a rematch against Brandon Herrera, a gun rights activist who almost defeated Gonzalez last time in a primary runoff. This time, unlike last time, Gonzalez's, Gonzalez has Trump's endorsement, which he very actively, you know, sought. And so we'll see if that makes a difference this time. And then you just have, you have a couple of incumbent challenges that respond by redistricting. For example, longtime Congressman Al Green in Houston, you know, is running against newly sworn in much younger Representative Christian Menife in the Houston area. And that was something that was, you know, sparked by redistricting, more or less. And that is, you know, puts on full display the generational divides in the Democratic Party right now. So those are some of the other races that I'm focused on.
- [35:29]
A
Final question here. I'm not going to ask you to predict whether, you know, a Democrat can win this fall, but what are you looking for to understand how competitive this race will be, whether it comes to, you know, how different groups in the electorate are voting, what issues rise to the top? You know, if this is going to become one of the races that we are really focused on in the final throws of the 2026 midterms, what will have happened to get us to that point?
- [35:57]
C
This is just one category of what I'm looking for, but is like, where the candidates actually campaign in Texas. I mean, the political landscape of Texas has been shifting, you know, in some areas pretty dramat since 2016. And so, you know, I'm looking to see, for example, you know, how hard they're fighting over places like Tarrant county, which, you know, is, has been known historically as the biggest red county in the country. But it's, it has become much more politically competitive in recent years. So I'm, you know, watching out for how hard they're, you know, fighting over Tarrant County. What are the messages that they're deploying specifically in Tarrant County? And in that area, you also have, have very critical suburban counties like Williamson county, which is just north of Austin. I'd be curious to see again how hard they're campaigning there, what kind of messages they're using specifically for that audience. And then you have more diverse suburban counties like Fort Bend county outside of Houston that, you know, it's, it's politically competitive. But also there's a number of key, you know, minority voting blocks there that, you know, is, is kind of like a, you know, a place where you can test different messages and see what is resonating with those individual groups that could prove crucial to the election in November. So Those are some of the places at least I'm watching.
- [37:12]
A
All right, well, we're going to leave things there. Thank you so much for joining me today, Patrick.
- [37:15]
C
Thanks so much for having me.
- [37:17]
B
My name is Galen Daruk. Remember to become a subscriber to this podcast@gdpolitics.com and wherever you get your podcasts. Paid subscribers get about twice the number of episodes. You can also join in our paid subscriber chat and pass along questions for.
- [37:29]
A
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- [37:31]
B
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- [37:44]
A
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