GD POLITICS: The Texas Senate Primaries Get Messy
Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Patrick Svitek (Political reporter, Texas/national politics)
Date: February 9, 2026
Overview
This episode dives deep into the unusually competitive and turbulent Texas 2026 U.S. Senate primaries for both Republicans and Democrats. Host Galen Druke and guest Patrick Svitek analyze why these Texas races are unusually volatile, the evolving coalitions in both parties, and what’s at stake for November. The episode also explores broader shifts in Texas’s political landscape, Latino voter trends, identity politics, and why both parties are fighting over the state’s shifting electorate. Expect candid talk about messy party divisions, dramatic candidate personalities, and the uncertain road to the general election.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Texas Political Climate Today
[03:18]
- The political landscape is more competitive than many realize.
- Recent Tarrant County special Senate election saw a 30-point swing left in a Trump+17 district—a "wake-up call" for Republicans.
- New U.S. House seats drawn as "safe R" may actually be competitive.
- Latino Vote: Critical in several districts; moderate Latino Democrats fending off GOP advances.
“This was a wake up call to Texas Republicans... shows that they have work to do if they want to avoid further upsets in the midterms in the state.”
— Patrick Svitek [03:23]
Republican Senate Primary: A Party Divided
Main Contenders:
- John Cornyn: Incumbent, establishment, big-spending, embodies traditional moderate Texas GOP.
- Ken Paxton: Trump-aligned, bombastic, scandal-laden, appeals to the MAGA/Tea Party base.
- Wesley Hunt: Younger, ‘next gen’ Trump conservative, wild card with some anti-establishment energy.
[05:43 - 11:56]
- Cornyn’s Vulnerability: Not sufficiently pro-Trump for the current base; faces skepticism over loyalty.
- Paxton’s Immunity: Close ties to Trump helped him survive an impeachment trial; legal controversies continue but aren’t fatal politically—yet.
- The New Texas GOP: Shift from pro-growth, urban-focused, diverse coalition (Bush/Perry era) to Tea Party and Trumpist populism.
- Coalitions:
- Paxton voters: MAGA, low-propensity conservatives, anti-establishment.
- Cornyn voters: Purist/traditional conservatives, suburbanites, socially moderate.
- Hunt voters: Tired of drama, want Trump-aligned youth, wary of Paxton’s scandals.
- Spending Surge: Cornyn and allies have already spent ~$50 million—record primary spending. Big dollars mainly aimed at shaping the runoff.
“He’s been able to survive political scandals and controversies because of how closely he has tied himself to Trump.”
— Patrick Svitek on Paxton [06:37]
“You do see in this race how the Texas Republican Party has changed over the years... the style became more pugilistic and more willing, more confrontational.”
— Patrick Svitek [08:27]
“Cornyn wants to face Paxton in the runoff. Paxton wants to face Cornyn in the runoff... Hunt is more of a wild card.”
— Patrick Svitek [13:53]
Democratic Senate Primary: Electability & Identity
Main Contenders:
- James Talarico: Early entrant, establishment-favored, white, moderate, big-tent inclusive strategy, serious fundraising.
- Jasmine Crockett: Late entrant, Black woman, progressive, higher name ID, running a nontraditional (“lightweight”) campaign.
[15:12 - 26:35]
- Polling: RealClearPolitics average has them tied; individual polls vary widely.
- Electability Debate:
- Talarico’s theory: Must run Beto O'Rourke-style inclusive campaign, win some GOP votes.
- Crockett’s theory: D turnout is all that matters, expand Dem base, less focus on GOP crossover.
- Name v. Campaign: Crockett relies on name recognition; little fundraising/spending, few ads—a “political science experiment.”
- Identity Politics:
- Crockett seen as mobilizing Black voters (23% of TX Dem primary electorate).
- Talarico polling strong with Latino voters (28% of TX Dem primary).
- Racial tensions surfaced (e.g., “mediocre black man” controversy).
- Vulnerabilities:
- Crockett: History of inflammatory comments, light campaign infrastructure.
- Talarico: Must delicately handle race/identity dynamics, avoid alienating Black electorate.
“You cannot afford in Texas to act like any part of the electorate is worth casting aside... you have to go for all of it as a Democrat in Texas.”
— Patrick Svitek [17:22]
“Jasmine Crockett derives a lot of her support from black voters in Texas, which we've seen in multiple polls... if you’re James Talarico...this is an incredibly sensitive issue for you to navigate.”
— Patrick Svitek [23:34]
“The primary amounted to a political science experiment set to test how much campaigns even matter in a Democratic primary.”
— Democratic operative, as read by Druke [20:53]
Cross-Cutting Issues: Immigration and Latino Vote
[26:35]
- Both parties see shifts in Latino preferences as central battleground.
- Dem candidates speak more aggressively on ICE; GOP surprisingly muted (potential liability, even in Texas).
- Crockett’s past comments about “slave mentality” among Trump-backing Latinos could become an ad war flashpoint.
“I would not be surprised if...we see some very targeted ads toward the Hispanic community with those comments.”
— Patrick Svitek [26:13]
Does Primary Winner Matter for the General?
[28:00]
- Both polls and operatives think the race will be close no matter the nominee—a “single digit” contest either way.
- Vulnerabilities:
- Paxton: Endless personal scandal could explode.
- Crockett: Unfiltered, controversial utterances and disregard for GOP crossover may backfire statewide.
“They do have a credible case... there could still be more, more layers to this, this onion.”
— Patrick Svitek on Paxton’s vulnerabilities [29:27]
“They believe that the nominee is going to have to consider it a priority to reach out to Republican voters.”
— Patrick Svitek on Dems opposed to Crockett [31:20]
The Texas 2026 Context: Trump, Abbott, Suburbs
[31:27]
- Trump’s approval in Texas: Net -1 (49/50).
- On immigration: Trump +4 approval in TX, but net negative nationally.
- Inflation: Trump underwater in Texas (-12), a rare cross-partisan concern.
- “Not a Wisconsin or Pennsylvania dynamic”—Texas remains fundamentally Republican.
“People in Texas, I think, have pretty much settled on their opinion of Donald Trump. Not much that’s going to change that.”
— Patrick Svitek [32:26]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | |-----------|-------|---------| | 03:23 | “This was a wake up call to Texas Republicans... shows that they have work to do if they want to avoid further upsets in the midterms in the state.” | Patrick Svitek | | 06:37 | “He’s been able to survive political scandals and controversies because of how closely he has tied himself to Trump.” | Patrick Svitek (on Paxton) | | 08:27 | “You do see in this race how the Texas Republican Party has changed over the years... the style became more pugilistic and more willing, more confrontational.” | Patrick Svitek | | 13:53 | “Cornyn wants to face Paxton in the runoff. Paxton wants to face Cornyn in the runoff... Hunt is more of a wild card.” | Patrick Svitek | | 17:22 | “You cannot afford in Texas to act like any part of the electorate is worth casting aside... you have to go for all of it as a Democrat in Texas.” | Patrick Svitek | | 20:53 | “The primary amounted to a political science experiment set to test how much campaigns even matter in a Democratic primary.” | Democratic operative (quote read by Druke) | | 23:34 | “Jasmine Crockett derives a lot of her support from black voters in Texas...if you’re James Talarico...this is an incredibly sensitive issue for you to navigate.” | Patrick Svitek | | 26:13 | “I would not be surprised if...we see some very targeted ads toward the Hispanic community with those comments.” | Patrick Svitek | | 32:26 | “People in Texas, I think, have pretty much settled on their opinion of Donald Trump. Not much that’s going to change that.” | Patrick Svitek | | 35:57 | “The political landscape of Texas has been shifting... I’m looking to see, for example, how hard they’re fighting over Tarrant County... what messages they’re deploying.” | Patrick Svitek |
Important Segment Timestamps
- [03:18] – State of play: Texas political competitiveness and midterm risks
- [05:43] – Why Cornyn is vulnerable and Paxton's MAGA-powered resilience
- [08:06] – The identity shift: Old guard vs. new Trumpist Texas GOP
- [13:21] – Mega-spending in the GOP primary; the runoff chess match
- [15:12] – Democratic primary: Talarico’s case, Crockett’s surprise entrance
- [17:22] – Big-tent v. turnout: Electability debate in the Democratic Party
- [20:53] – Money & name ID: Can Crockett win “no-campaign”?
- [23:34] – Race controversy: Identity politics in the Dem primary
- [26:35] – The Latino vote and ICE: How key issues are playing
- [28:00] – Does it matter who wins? Primary v. general contestability
- [31:27] – Texas is still Texas: Trump’s standing, statewide Republican context
- [35:57] – What to watch: Key counties and campaign strategies for November
Broader Implications and Takeaways
- Texas is not the red stronghold it once was—both parties are recalculating their strategies to reach new, crucial segments (especially Latino voters and newly-competitive suburbs).
- Both primaries are “messy” not just because of candidate personalities, but because they reflect deeper, still-evolving splits in each party’s identity and approach.
- High-dollar and high-drama don’t guarantee clarity: both races remain extremely unsettled just weeks out.
- The general election, even with different nominee combinations, looks unusually close—Texas may truly be a national battleground in 2026.
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