GD POLITICS Podcast: Trump’s Iran Gamble Gets More Expensive

Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Gabe Fleischer, author of Wake Up to Politics
Date: March 9, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the domestic political fallout and public opinion dynamics in the U.S. as the war with Iran enters its second week. Host Galen Druke and guest Gabe Fleischer analyze the intersection of foreign policy, energy prices, economic anxieties, legislative responses, and the evolving divisions (or lack thereof) within American political parties regarding Trump’s approach to Iran.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. War Status Update & Economic Impact

• Escalation: The war with Iran intensifies. The U.S. goal is now set as Iran’s "unconditional surrender." (00:32)
• International Fallout: Fifteen nations involved to varying degrees; Ayatollah Khamenei's son is named Iran’s new Supreme Leader.
• Causalities: 7 U.S. service members and an estimated 1,200 Iranians killed.
• Market Reaction: Oil soars to $120/barrel (from $65 pre-war), gas prices spike 50¢ per gallon in a week. (00:32–01:58)
• Congressional Inaction: Congress declined to rein in Trump’s authority despite the escalating costs.
  • "The number of US Service members killed has risen to seven... Markets are falling around the world as the likelihood of this being a short contained operation is fading.” (00:32 – Galen Druke)

2. Public Opinion on Energy Prices and Policy

• Data Center NIMBYism: Fleischer notes rising opposition to local AI data centers as electricity rates climb. This is mirrored by broader energy anxieties, now exacerbated by the conflict. (02:14)
• Gas Prices & Approval: Gas prices are the most visible and emotionally resonant price point for voters. Correlation between presidential approval and gas prices is cited. (04:58)
  • "There is evidence to suggest... an exact correlation between presidential approval ratings and gas prices and showing that is potentially the price… most responsible for shifting people's opinions.” (04:58 – Gabe Fleischer)

3. Historical Parallels: Economic Shocks & Presidential Downfall

• Jobs & Stagflation Warning: Negative jobs report and surging fuel costs create a “five-alarm fire” for Trump’s domestic standing. Comparisons are drawn to Jimmy Carter and Joe Biden’s struggles with inflation and Iran-related crises. (06:37)
  • "Ask Jimmy Carter what high gas prices stemming from a crisis in Iran can do for one's political fortunes. Or Joe Biden, whether it helps to deny the economic realities that people feel.“ (06:37 – Galen Druke)
• Presidential Messaging: Trump’s dismissive stance ("if they rise, they rise" on gas prices) compared unfavorably to Bill Clinton’s "I feel your pain" or Carter’s televised economic acknowledgments. (07:35, 12:59)

4. Presidential Approval & The ‘Rally Around the Flag’ Effect

• No Rally Effect: Despite U.S. military engagement, Trump’s negative 12 net approval rating remains static — the expected “rally around the flag” bump is absent. (06:37)
  • "Usually when the country goes to war, there is a rally around the flag effect... but the fact that his approval rating has not gone up is, in some ways, significant on its own.” (06:37 – Galen Druke)
• Era of Polarization: Approval ratings now appear more fixed; elite partisanship trumps events, even war. Approval shifts are mostly economic, not foreign policy-driven. (12:59–17:43)

5. The Politics of Selling the War

• Unprecedented Unpopularity: U.S. intervention in Iran is net negative (-12 to -16) in polling; no historical precedent for starting a major war with minority support. (16:25, 20:59)
  • "Basically every time the US has gone to war since the advent of polling... there has always been majority support... to have a war start this unpopular... is unprecedented.” (20:59 – Gabe Fleischer)
• Lack of Salesmanship: Trump has not held major public addresses or attempted to vigorously “sell” the war, perhaps signaling he anticipates no public buy-in or is banking on swift success. (22:07)
  • "Trump is sort of imagining… a very quick war that he doesn't even need to sell... kind of keep it somewhat on the back burner.” (22:07 – Gabe Fleischer)
• Legacy vs. Electoral Focus: Suggestion that with a second term secured, Trump may be legacy-focused, aiming for regime change in historical adversaries regardless of public opinion. (25:10–25:58)

6. Congressional Response & Party Divisions

• War Powers Resolution: Recent vote to rein in Trump mostly divided along party lines, with a handful of notable defections:
  • Senate: John Fetterman (pro-Israel) sided with Republicans.
  • House: Vulnerable swing-district Democrats (Golden, Gottheimer, Landsman) sided with GOP.
  • GOP: Only Thomas Massie and Warren Davidson (libertarians) opposed war.
  • Other isolationist Republicans (e.g., J.D. Vance, Josh Hawley) have been silent or quietly supportive. (26:39–28:38)
• Republican Unity: Despite anti-intervention elite voices (e.g., Tucker, Megyn Kelly), polls show up to 85% of Republican voters support Trump’s action in Iran — even “MAGA Republicans” are more pro-war than mainstream GOP. (30:12)
  • “MAGA Republicans are even more likely than other Republicans to support the war.” (32:08 – Gabe Fleischer)
• Elite vs. Base Split: Conservative media and think-tank skepticism doesn’t translate to base voter opinion, which remains loyal to Trump as a personalist leader, not to a set of anti-interventionist principles. (30:12–33:07)

7. Public Opinion on Israel & Growing Polarization

• Democratic Shift: Recent Gallup poll shows Americans now sympathize more with Palestinians (41%) over Israelis (36%), with this largely driven by Democrats/independents. Republican support for Israel has declined but remains strong (70%). (35:11)
• Elite–Voter Disconnect: Changes on the right are mostly elite-driven and not yet reflected in rank-and-file opinion. Among Democrats, grassroots opinion has shifted faster than among elites. (36:38)
  • "Amongst Democrats, voters have led the elites and amongst Republicans, elites or some elites are leading the vote.” (36:30 – Galen Druke)

8. Congressional Prospects: Funding and War Limitations

• Upcoming Resolutions: Democrat-led efforts may surface to re-limit Trump’s war powers, e.g., restricting force after 30 days. (40:30)
• War Funding Challenge: With the war costing $1 billion/day, funding will soon run out. Passing new funding will be difficult in the Senate unless Republicans use budget reconciliation—a process both politically and logistically fraught given slim majorities and internal disputes. (40:30–46:44)
  • "There's no implicit grant of funding to the executive branch unless Congress affirmatively and actively gives him more money.” (42:47 – Gabe Fleischer)
• Legal Maneuvering: Trump could try to reallocate defense funds but would likely face legal challenges; courts may be more deferential because of “foreign affairs” context. (45:00–46:44)

9. How Does the War End?

• Flexible Endgame: Trump’s job is made easier and harder by the lack of clear strategic objectives—he can claim victory through various pretexts.
  • "Trump will use some sort of fig leaf to say we've beat them... some climb down by the president, some kind of declaration of victory and try to market that as a win. I think that's the most likely scenario.” (47:40 – Gabe Fleischer)
• Markets as a Check: Financial markets, more than public opinion, may ultimately force Trump’s hand if economic costs spiral.
• Enemy Gets a Vote: Even with U.S. withdrawal, Iran can force continued escalation by retaliatory action, complicating any attempt by Trump to unilaterally declare success. (47:40–50:29)
  • "James Mattis... saying he was fond of was 'the enemy always gets a vote.'” (49:08 – Gabe Fleischer)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Gas Price–Approval Link:
  “The price of gas is potentially the one that is most indicative of American public opinion. It is literally the price that, if you’re driving around, it’s the place you can’t help but see in huge signs every time you pass a gas station.”
  — Gabe Fleischer (04:58)

• On Trump's Strategic Silence:
  "Trump has not been in front of cameras as much in the run up and during this war as you might expect. I think partially because... a phone interview, while you could splash a quote in an ad, it’s no video."
  — Gabe Fleischer (12:59)

• On War Salesmanship:
  “This is the most unpopular war effort in the modern era... I don't think it would be much of a political benefit... but it would be undoubtedly a huge legacy win for the president.”
  — Gabe Fleischer (24:18)

• On Party Alignment:
  "To be a member of the MAGA movement means to support Donald Trump. You know, it's allegiance to a single politician rather than... a movement of clear ideals or principles.”
  — Gabe Fleischer (32:30)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:32–01:58 — War update, oil shock, and domestic/political overview
• 02:14–04:23 — AI data centers & energy concerns, policy implications
• 04:23–07:35 — Gas prices, public opinion, historical correlations
• 12:59–16:25 — Presidential approval, rally effect, and recent history
• 16:25–22:07 — Polling on Iran war, lack of precedent, war ‘marketing’
• 22:07–25:58 — Trump’s strategy: legacy vs. electoral politics
• 26:39–28:38 — Congressional votes, notable party defections
• 30:12–33:07 — Republican unity vs. elite dissent, “MAGA” war support
• 35:11–39:26 — US–Israel–Palestine public opinion, party and demographic divides
• 40:30–46:44 — Upcoming war powers and funding resolutions, legislative maneuvering
• 46:44–50:29 — War endgames, markets as constraint, Trump’s flexibility

Tone & Style

• Analytical, detailed, and rigorous in exploring both the data and the political context.
• Conversational but intellectually probing, with regular nods to historical precedent, polling data, and political theory.
• Light touches of humor and self-awareness (e.g., Galen’s “hobby horse” on Bidenomics).

Summary for New Listeners

This episode provides a sharp, data-informed look at the domestic impacts of Trump's Iran war, highlighting why soaring gas prices are such a political danger, why Trump's efforts to address related economic pain are being overshadowed, how public opinion is unusually resistant to war messaging, and why Trump's legacy motives may outstrip his political ones. Discussion covers why party bases aren’t rebelling against Trump despite old anti-intervention rhetoric, the unique mechanics of congressional war funding in a polarized age, and why, even in war, presidential approval numbers may be stuck near their floor.

If you want a clear, critical, and context-rich exploration of the biggest political and economic stories emanating from the conflict with Iran — and what they could mean heading into the 2026 midterms — this episode is a must-listen.