GD POLITICS Podcast Summary

“We Answer Your Questions On ICE, Iran, And The Senate”

Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Lenny Brauner (Senior Data Scientist, Washington Post)
Date: January 15, 2026

Overview

In this current-events-focused mailbag episode, host Galen Druke and returning guest Lenny Brauner field listener questions about some of the week's most urgent political stories, including the ICE surge in Minneapolis, public opinion on ICE and immigration under Trump’s second presidency, the aftermath of the Renee Goode shooting, major election developments in Alaska and Minnesota, and the chances of Democrats flipping the Senate. With their signature blend of curiosity, rigor, and humor, the pair break down the latest polling data, contextualize headline events, and reflect on how public opinion is evolving in real time.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Alaska Senate Race: Mary Peltola’s Chances

Listener Question: On Polymarket, Mary Peltola is at 53% to win the Alaska Senate. Are you buying, selling, or holding?

• Market Odds & Shifts

  • Polymarket odds dropped from 53% to 46% after news of Peltola entering the race ([04:00]).
  • Betting markets around these races are not especially well capitalized—interpret with caution.

• Lenny’s Analysis:

  • “Given the information you just gave me, I'd be selling, but I think I would be selling either way.” ([04:31])
  • It's an uphill battle for Democrats in Alaska, a state leaning Republican even though Peltola has statewide wins.
  • “I don't think her chances of winning are more than 50% right now and closer to 40%, something like that.” ([04:47])
  • "She’s obviously well-positioned" but fighting an uphill partisan terrain ([05:34]).

• Galen’s View:

  • Betting markets didn’t budge on Democrats’ Senate odds with Peltola’s entry: “Republicans had a 66% chance of holding the Senate before she got in. They still have a 66% chance...after she got in.” ([05:43])
  • The relationship between Alaska and other Senate races like Ohio isn't particularly correlated ([07:00]).

• Candidate Quality & Alaska Specifics:

  • Peltola’s previous campaigns focused on “Fish, family, freedom,” positioning herself as “the only candidate that was pro guns, pro jobs, and pro choice” ([07:25]).
  • Her earlier win benefited from Lisa Murkowski’s endorsement, which this time may go to the sitting Republican senator ([09:03]).

2. Public Perception of ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement)

Listener Question: Is there data on how the public perceives ICE? Has this changed under Trump’s presidency and after the Minnesota incident?

• Recent Polling:

  • Quinnipiac Poll (Jan 8–12, 2026): ICE disapproval at 57%, approval at 40%.
  • Huge partisan split:
    • Republicans: 84% approve, 12% disapprove.
    • Democrats: 94% disapprove, 4% approve.
    • Independents: 33% approve, 64% disapprove—a “bigger difference than expected.” ([09:39])
  • Numbers largely unchanged from six months prior, despite recent news.

• Awareness After Minnesota Incident:

  • “82% of respondents said that they had seen a video of the incident” ([10:20]).
  • In a YouGov poll, 91% had heard about it; 69% had seen the video ([10:35]).

• Attitudes Toward Abolishing ICE:

  • For the first time, a plurality (46%) in a YouGov poll favored abolishing ICE, edging out those opposed (43%)—a striking shift from previous years ([10:50]).
  • In 2025, only 27% supported abolition; the change seems to come from previously undecided respondents moving toward abolition, with opposition steady ([11:14]).

• Interpretation:

  • “A small majority of Americans will answer the question in a way that they oppose whatever the Trump administration is doing” ([11:44]).
  • The pattern: strong partisan divide, with a potentially fluid but still divided middle.

3. Trump’s Approval on Immigration & Issue Salience

• Trump’s Net Approval (on Immigration):

  • Down to -8, which is still better than his overall approval of -12 ([12:36]).
  • Approval was +11 after his first inauguration—a stark fall—yet has held steady since mid-2025.

• Most Important National Issues (Gallup Data):

  • Early 2024: 28% said immigration was the most important issue—near the percentage for the economy ([14:00]).
  • Fall 2025: that fell to 14%; rose again to 19% in December ([14:50]).
  • Galen’s hypothesis: previously, those most concerned with immigration were focused on border influxes; in the current environment, some voters are now worried about harsh enforcement and ICE crackdowns ([15:45]).
  • “I think it’s probably a subset of ... the more liberal wing of the Democratic Party...” ([15:57]).

• Lenny’s Take:

  • Some Democrats are now pointing to immigration as a top issue “because they are concerned with the ongoing crackdown” ([16:04]).
  • The shift in who is worried may complicate interpretation of these trendlines.

4. Political Impact and Democratic Strategy

Listener Questions:

• Should Democrats consider a government shutdown to rein in ICE?

• Would a walkout at the State of the Union be effective? Does the State of the Union change public opinion?

• State of the Union Impact:

  • “No, I don’t think there’s any evidence that the State of the Union impacts public opinion.” — Galen ([17:35])
  • “On my ongoing list of things that journalists care about that no one else cares about, the State of the Union isn’t even on that list anymore...” — Lenny ([17:44])

• Strategic Assessment:

  • “I still would have a difficult time imagining that the marginal voter...is more concerned about this than, for example, healthcare costs...” — Galen ([17:58])
  • However, “the shooting of Renee Goode changes things” because “video evidence really is what can change people’s opinion” ([18:02]).
  • Nuanced views: People can be in favor of border enforcement but object to the perceived overreach or politicization of ICE under Trump ([18:36]).

• Lenny on Evolving Opinion:

  • “We are in the middle of something happening...we should regroup again in a week or two.” ([18:51])
  • As more videos emerge, public opinion may shift, but it’s too soon to fully measure the impact.

5. Polling and Respondent Demographics

Listener Question: Are ICE raids impacting response rates among non-white poll respondents?

• Not Answered Fully:
  • Question raised in the closing moments; Galen and Lenny did not get to answer before the episode preview ended ([19:38]).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “I don't think her chances of winning are more than 50% right now and closer to 40%, something like that.” — Lenny Brauner ([04:47])

• “A small majority of Americans will answer the question in a way that they oppose whatever the Trump administration is doing. ... that is true here, too.” — Lenny Brauner ([11:44])

• “No, I don’t think there’s any evidence that the State of the Union impacts public opinion.” — Galen Druke ([17:35])

• “We are in the middle of something happening. ... we should regroup again in a week or two.” — Lenny Brauner ([18:51])

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |------------------------------------------------|--------------| | Alaska Senate Race & Polymarket Odds | 04:00–09:03 | | ICE Approval Ratings & Recent Polling | 09:03–12:36 | | Trump’s Approval on Immigration | 12:36–16:04 | | Most Important Issues: Immigration vs Economy | 14:00–16:50 | | Democratic Strategy & State of the Union | 16:50–18:51 | | Polling Demographics and Response Rates | 19:38 |

Tone & Atmosphere

The conversation is accessible, data-driven, and witty, with Galen’s self-deprecating humor and Lenny’s straightforward, numbers-first approach. The episode reflects the hosts’ foundational principles: “curiosity, rigor, and a sense of humor.”

Note: The episode preview ends before discussion of Iran, the Senate, and Fed-related questions.