GD POLITICS PODCAST SUMMARY
Episode: We Answer Your Questions On Independents, Never Trumpers, And Zohran Mamdani
Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Lenny Brauner, Senior Data Scientist at The Washington Post
Date: January 19, 2026

Episode Overview

In this listener mailbag episode, Galen Druke and guest Lenny Brauner tackle a fascinating set of questions from listeners, ranging from political “archetypes” and the rise of independents, to polling shifts after the 2025 elections and the nature of Never Trump Republicans. The discussion is rigorous but light in tone, with a sense of humor and open curiosity throughout. Key themes include the shifting identity of American voters, polling methodology, the limits of political rebranding, and the lingering effects of partisanship.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Electability by Profession: The Best Archetypes for Congress and Governor

[01:25–05:28]

• Listener Q: Which professional archetypes have the best chances for Congress and for governor?
• Lenny: Veterans and lawyers are the most commonly elected, citing examples from the 2025 elections. But Congress is disproportionately composed of lawyers, which may not indicate overperformance.
• Galen: Public trust ranks nurses far higher than lawyers—“75% of respondents say that nurses have a very high or high level of honesty and ethical standards” ([03:10]). Suggests nurses should run for Congress, projecting honesty & ethics.
• Lenny: Only three current nursing professionals in Congress, per the American Nurses Association ([04:29]).
• Galen: For governor, “mayor of a big city” or “a business executive” seem to make effective executives.
• Both: Astronauts technically have an outsized win record, but few run.

Notable Moment

“If you were in a lab building somebody to run for Congress... you would [not] choose a lawyer. Also, I think there’s some stats out there that astronauts have an almost perfect electoral record or something—but... there aren’t that many astronauts.”
—Galen ([04:55])

2. The Surge in Independents: Realignment or Just a Polling Artifact?

[06:42–13:38]

• Context: Gallup now finds 45% of Americans identify as independent—well above each major party at 27%.
• Lenny: “Weak parties and strong partisanship are a bad combination.” Most independents continue to display clear partisan leanings ([07:39]).
• Galen: The growth in independents shouldn’t be hand-waved away; it signals dissatisfaction with party brands, even if not true independence.

  “The party brands are toxic and they don’t like these party brands.” —Lenny ([09:48])

• Lenny: Younger cohorts (Gen X, Millennials) aren’t “settling” into party identity as quickly as prior generations. 42% of Gen X and 54% of Millennials still call themselves independents—which is unusual ([12:04]).
• Polling nuance: Once pollsters “push” for lean, only about 10% remain truly independent ([08:52]).
• Potential for Anti-Politics Movements: Galen references Italy’s Five Star Movement, speculating that US politics could see similar anti-establishment campaigns—possibly even successful independent bids.

3. Shifting Polls and Polling Quality after the 2025 Elections

[16:22–18:42]

• Listener Q: Why did Democratic polling surge after the 2025 elections, and has the loss of FiveThirtyEight increased poll herding?
• Galen: Change isn’t herding but a switch in polling methodology—modeling for likely voters in 2026 versus 2024 ([16:27]).
• Lenny: “The future is always bleak for quality polling” ([16:22]).
  A likely mechanism is pollsters adjusting their models in response to actual results, not copying rivals out of fear.
• Enthusiasm/nonresponse: After disappointing elections, some voter groups are less responsive to polls; surprise wins can invigorate those groups and change the pool of respondents.

4. Pathways for Parties & Election Predictions

[18:42–22:09]

• Republican House Chances in 2026:
  • Lenny would “buy” Republican chances at 22% (“My gut would say something like 30%... the further we are from an event happening, the closer we should be to 50/50” ([19:16]))
  • Success likely hinges on Trump’s popularity and national context.
  • Galen: For Rs to hold the House, “Trump becoming way more popular or Trump... shutting up down the final stretch [of the elections]” would help ([20:25]); redistricting could tip the balance.
• Mock Draft Teaser: The upcoming Democratic primary mock draft for 2028 will be covered live at a GD Politics event.

5. Democratic Party Factions & Ideological Frameworks

[23:27–27:44]

• Listener Q: Are the three Democratic “factions”—Left, abundance libs, and resistance libs—a useful model?
• Lenny: The groupings are useful for media/elite thinkers, but not fully for voters ([23:59]). Fractures are present, but lived identities are more complex.
• Galen: Critiques the model for omitting “electability Democrats”—those favoring economic populism plus social moderation.
• Both: The online taxonomy doesn’t map cleanly onto real voters, who are generally choosing who “gets people like me” rather than fitting into neatly labeled thought groups ([27:50]).

6. The Case of Zohran Mamdani's Approval Ratings

[28:55–30:46]

• Data: Post-election, NYC’s Zohran Mamdani had 55% favorable, 31% unfavorable in NYC; 40/40 statewide.
• Will he stay above 50%? Both predict approval will fall: “You get a honeymoon... then things... fade” ([30:15]).
• Historical Patterns: NYC mayors’ approvals trend downward due to the city’s complex challenges.

7. Republican and Democratic Primary Drafts: Party Landscape Considerations

[30:46–32:16]

• Listener Q: How do potential primary candidates change based on Congressional control?
• Galen: Candidate appeal is less about governing context, more about what kinds of politicians disappointed partisans are reactive to after tough losses.

8. Prospects for Reforming the Presidential Pardon Power

[32:18–33:17]

• Listener Q: Could a constitutional amendment reform the pardon power?
• Lenny: “No... the hurdle... is very high, very, very high” ([32:31]).
• Galen: Majority support exists in polling, but it’s far from the supermajority required for amendment ([33:17]).

9. Who Are the “Never Trump” Republicans?

[33:17–37:06]

• Listener Q: Are Trump-disapproving Republicans old-style Never Trumpers, or a shifting group?
• Lenny: These are generally edge-of-party voters unhappy with performance, not long-term ideological dissenters:

  “These are mostly people... who are unhappy with [Trump’s] performance rather than people who are never Trumpers...” ([35:43])

• Galen & Lenny: The sort of “I’m a Republican but not a Trump Republican” voter is exceptionally rare at this point outside of politicians/media.

10. Career Advice for Recent College Graduates in Policy

[37:06–40:12]

• Dos: Develop subject matter expertise and show it publicly; portfolio work matters.
• Galen: “Just do the job that you want” using freely available tools—even if no one is hiring you yet ([38:23]).
• Lenny: “Dress for the job you want, not the job you have” ([40:12]).

11. Do Political Rebrands Ever Work?

[40:12–42:35]

• Listener Q: Can a nationally disliked politician (like Kamala Harris) rebrand and “come back”?
• Lenny: It’s possible in narrow ways, citing Bill Clinton (from liberal to centrist), Reagan (ideologue to optimist), Nixon (loser to elder statesman). But “there’s a lot of people... who have an opinion of her” and a full rebrand is hard for an established national figure ([41:40]).
• Galen: Any rebrand by Harris would risk seeming even more inauthentic; hard to erase the well-set opinions about her ([42:35]).

12. The Hardest Presidential Wins

[43:54–46:53]

• Listener Q: Which president won under the toughest political conditions?
• Jacob Rubashkin (guest via text): Cites Bush in 1988 and Trump in 2016 as recent examples but admits recency bias. It's hard to answer as the national environment is partly defined by the presidential result itself ([44:17]).
• Galen: ChatGPT includes historical cases like Rutherford B. Hayes (1876) for winning a disputed election.
• In summary: The answer is not clear and may be a function of perspective on “difficult landscape.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “The future is always bleak for quality polling. I feel like you can just sort of put that at the end of every episode.”
  —Lenny ([16:22])

• “If you’re in a lab building somebody to run for Congress or governor, you would [not] choose a lawyer.”
  —Galen ([04:55])

• “The party brands are toxic and they don’t like these party brands.”
  —Lenny ([09:48])

• “Just do the job that you want... and there’s a small chance that it sort of takes off organically and that turns into a job.”
  —Galen ([38:23])

• “Dress for the job you want, not the job you have.”
  —Lenny ([40:12])

• “It would be very, very difficult for a national politician to pull that off.” (on rebranding)
  —Lenny ([42:35])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:25] Electability and professional archetypes
• [06:42] The rise of Independents in party ID
• [16:22] Poll shifts after 2025 & state of polling quality
• [18:42] 2026 House forecast & Republican strategies
• [23:27] Democratic Party's ideological factions and frameworks
• [28:55] Zohran Mamdani’s approval & the honeymoon period
• [33:17] Who are anti-Trump Republicans today?
• [37:06] Career advice for policy-minded grads
• [40:12] Can politicians truly rebrand?
• [43:54] Hardest-fought presidential wins

Tone & Style

The episode toggles between nerdy analysis, lighthearted banter, and occasional meta-commentary on political culture (“be slightly less online and then maybe those groupings don’t make a ton of sense” — Lenny). Both hosts deploy substantive data, historical examples, and polling nuance, making this a rich listen for political junkies and casual observers alike.

For Further Listening

Paid subscribers can expect additional content, such as the upcoming Democratic and Republican primary mock drafts, along with more detailed polling discussions and Q&A episodes.

For more, visit www.gdpolitics.com.