GD Politics Podcast Summary

Episode: What Americans Think About SCOTUS, Iran, And The 'Big Beautiful Bill'
Release Date: June 30, 2025
Host: Galen Drake
Guests: Mary Radcliffe, Lenny Brauner

1. Supreme Court's Ruling on Nationwide Injunctions and Public Opinion

The episode begins with Galen Drake highlighting a significant Supreme Court decision that restricts the use of nationwide injunctions by lower federal courts. This ruling affects the implementation of presidential orders, such as Trump's attempt to end birthright citizenship, which faced a nationwide injunction. The decision halts such injunctions for 30 days, allowing for potential new cases to be filed.

Key Discussions:

• Understanding Nationwide Injunctions: Lenny Brauner explains that while most Americans might not be familiar with federal injunctions specifically, there is a broader perception about the balance of power among government branches. A recent AP poll from May indicates that half of Americans believe the President holds too much power, whereas only 30% think federal courts are overreaching. However, perceptions vary sharply along party lines, with 50% of Republicans feeling federal courts possess excessive power compared to 17% of Democrats.

• SCOTUS and Public Opinion Alignment: Mary Radcliffe introduces the SCOTUS Poll, a collaboration among Harvard, Stanford, and the University of Texas, which assesses how Supreme Court decisions align with public opinion. Notably, in recent cases:

  • Parental Choice in Education: "77% of respondents agreed that schools should have to give parents the option to opt their children out of gender and sexuality instruction." (11:15)
  • Age Verification for Adult Content: "80% of respondents support states requiring websites to verify users' ages for adult content." (11:55)
  • Medical Treatments for Transgender Minors: "64% agree that states should be able to ban certain medical treatments for transgender minors." (12:01)

These findings demonstrate that the Supreme Court's recent decisions largely reflect public sentiment on these issues.

Notable Quotes:

• "Most Americans don't believe that the courts have too much power. They generally believe that it's the president who has too much power." — Lenny Brauner (04:09)
• "In the SCOTUS poll, it was 64% said that birthright citizenship should stand." — Mary Radcliffe (08:36)

2. U.S. Strikes on Iran and Shifts in Republican Support

The discussion shifts to the recent U.S. military actions against Iran's nuclear facilities and the ensuing public opinion, particularly within the Republican Party.

Key Discussions:

• Polling Challenges and Reliability: Lenny Brauner expresses skepticism about the reliability of issue polling, noting that unlike election polls, issue polls rarely have definitive outcomes to validate their accuracy. Mary Radcliffe counters by emphasizing that increased polling on Iran since the strikes provides a more substantial data set, suggesting that observed shifts may reflect genuine changes in opinion rather than polling inaccuracies.

• Shift in Republican Support: Following the U.S. bombings of Iran, Republican support for such military actions surged by 30 percentage points. This shift is attributed to persuasive efforts by Republican leaders and trusted figures who advocated for the strikes. Mary Radcliffe points out that before the strikes, a significant portion of Republicans were uncertain or opposed to the actions, but the actual events and subsequent messaging led to increased support.

• Concerns Over Broader Conflict: Despite increased support for the strikes, there remains substantial concern among Americans about the possibility of the U.S. being drawn into a larger conflict. A Washington Post poll indicated that 74% of respondents were very or somewhat concerned about a full-scale war resulting from the strikes (19:43).

Notable Quotes:

• "Polling that we're doing that we talk about a lot... might not be as strong as we like to believe." — Lenny Brauner (14:37)
• "As people get more information, their unsureness drops and they choose a position based on that information." — Mary Radcliffe (18:37)

3. The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' and Public Opinion on Legislation

President Trump’s push to pass the 'One Big Beautiful Bill' by July 4th is examined in terms of public support and its implications.

Key Discussions:

• Public Opposition to the Bill: According to CNN's analysis of four recent polls (Washington Post, Fox News, KFF, and Quinnipiac University), the bill faces significant public disapproval. On average, 55% of Americans oppose the legislation, making it the most unpopular major bill since at least 1990 (28:38). Political Science Professor Chris Warshaw from George Washington University notes that the bill is "24 points underwater" in public support.

• Understanding Public Awareness: Mary Radcliffe highlights that Americans have a clearer understanding of the bill's implications compared to more nuanced foreign policy issues. For instance, a YouGov CBS News poll revealed:

  • "55% of respondents knew that this bill would increase the federal deficit." (30:00)
  • "50% knew the bill would decrease the number of Americans with health insurance." (30:45)

• Complexity of Policy Platforms: Lenny Brauner discusses how political parties present a combination of issues, leading voters to weigh different components of legislation. While individual aspects of the bill may have varied levels of support, the overall package suffers due to conflicting provisions and strong partisan associations.

Notable Quotes:

• "This makes the bill more unpopular than any piece of major legislation passed since at least 1990." — Galen Drake (28:38)
• "People have very nuanced opinions and are able to differentiate between just sort of blindly thinking like, this is something I support, and seeing it in context of this whole bill." — Lenny Brauner (29:48)

4. Analysis of Special Elections: Democratic Overperformance

Lenny Brauner presents an analysis of recent special elections, revealing that Democrats are outperforming expectations, particularly in traditionally Republican (red) states.

Key Discussions:

• Democratic Surge in Special Elections: Democrats are overperforming by a median of 13 percentage points compared to their performance in the 2024 general election. This outperformance surpasses previous special election cycles, where the median overperformance ranged from 2 to 6 percentage points (34:13).

• Geographic Disparities: The Democratic overperformance is more pronounced in red states. For example, in states that Donald Trump won, Democrats are overperforming by 21 points, whereas in blue states won by Kamala Harris, the overperformance is only 6 to 8 points (35:13).

• Potential Reasons for Overperformance:

  • Mean Reversion: Possible backlash in heavily partisan areas leading to increased Democratic support.
  • Electorate Composition: Special elections tend to attract higher-educated, high-propensity voters who lean Democratic.
  • Changing Coalitions: Shifts in voter demographics and priorities may be contributing to the altered performance.

• Implications for Midterms: Historically, special elections have been reliable indicators for midterm performance. However, Lieber Brauner notes that the current trend deviates from the historical pattern, suggesting that the relationship between special election results and general election outcomes may be weakening (35:11).

Notable Quotes:

• "Democrats are doing very well in special elections. They're overperforming how they did in the 2024 election by 13 percentage points." — Lenny Brauner (34:13)
• "These are the people who are turning out to vote. These are high-educated, high propensity voters, who have very strong opinions about issues." — Lenny Brauner (44:09)

5. New York City Mayoral Primary and Polling Discrepancies

The podcast delves into the recent New York City mayoral primary, highlighting significant discrepancies between pre-election polls and actual election results.

Key Discussions:

• Polling Misalignment: Mary Radcliffe points out that pollsters focused on "triple prime voters" (those who voted in the last three mayoral elections) failed to account for a surge in turnout among less engaged voters. This oversight led to inaccurate predictions of the election outcome.

• Turnout Dynamics: Galen Drake notes that in districts where candidate Zoran Mamdani performed well, there was a 30% increase in voter turnout. In contrast, areas favoring Cuomo saw no significant change in turnout, suggesting that Mamdani successfully mobilized previously inactive voters (46:41).

• Strategic Implications for Pollsters: Mary Radcliffe emphasizes the need for pollsters to adapt their likely voter models to consider variations in voter engagement, especially in races with charismatic or populist candidates who can dramatically influence turnout.

• Future Polling Considerations: Lenny Brauner reflects on historical patterns where populist right-wing candidates tend to overperform polls. He raises questions about whether similar trends will emerge with left-wing populist candidates like Mamdani and how pollsters might adjust their methodologies in response (49:00).

Notable Quotes:

• "When you have a candidate that's motivating pretty significant turnout among voters that would not be classified as triple prime, you're not going to catch that movement." — Mary Radcliffe (49:20)
• "Donald Trump... overperformed the polls." — Lenny Brauner (49:59)

6. Concluding Insights and Future Implications

In the closing segments, the hosts touch upon the interconnectedness of public opinion, polling methodologies, and political strategies. They underscore the importance of understanding voter behavior, especially in an era of increasing partisanship and shifting coalitions.

Key Takeaways:

• Representative Democracy Challenges: The podcast highlights the inherent complexities in representative democracy, where voters rely on elected officials to make informed decisions on myriad issues without direct referenda.

• Evolving Political Coalitions: As voter demographics and priorities change, so do the performance patterns of political parties, necessitating continual adaptation in political strategies and polling techniques.

• Importance of High-Quality Polling: Accurate polling remains crucial for gauging public opinion and shaping effective political campaigns, especially when traditional models may fall short in dynamic political landscapes.

Notable Quotes:

• "You have to fight it out in public in order to find out what Americans really think." — Galen Drake (24:30)
• "These high propensity voters are the only group of voters that Democrats did better with in 2024 compared to in 2020." — Lenny Brauner (35:11)

This episode of GD Politics offers a comprehensive analysis of recent Supreme Court decisions, shifts in public opinion regarding foreign policy, legislative challenges, and the nuances of electoral performance in special elections. Through insightful discussions with experts Mary Radcliffe and Lenny Brauner, listeners gain a deeper understanding of the intricate dynamics shaping American politics in mid-2025.