Podcast Summary: GD POLITICS

Episode: "What If Every State Gerrymandered To The Max?"

Host: Galen Druke
Guest: Jeffrey Skelly, Chief Election Analyst at Decision Desk HQ
Date: August 25, 2025
Podcast Link: gdpolitics.com

Main Theme & Purpose

The episode explores the escalating "gerrymandering wars" in U.S. politics, asking: what if every state gerrymandered as aggressively as possible? Host Galen Druke and guest Jeffrey Skelly analyze the evolving landscape of redistricting in states like Texas and California, the potential national consequences, the implications for both parties, and the increasing lack of competitive congressional districts. The conversation also branches out to the high-drama New York City mayoral race and the 2026 midterm election environment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State Gerrymandering Wars – Texas & California

Texas:

• Impact of New Maps: Texas is likely to flip three Democratic seats to Republican in 2026, with two more seats made more competitive for Republicans.
  • “In the long run, they're in a good, good place to probably get all five [seats].” (Jeffrey, 04:10)
  • Shift in Latino electorate, especially in South Texas, remains a wildcard.

California:

• Process Difference: California’s new maps go to a public vote, not just legislative approval.
• Polling Insights: Among regular voters, 55% support the new maps vs. 34% opposed. Success is more likely due to Democratic alignment and the ability to frame the issue as a fight against Trump.
  • “Gavin Newsom, the Democratic governor, can make this all about Trump,” (Jeffrey, 11:03)
  • Skepticism remains due to historic voter hesitancy on complex ballot measures.
• Historical Context: The independent redistricting commission was not initially a Democratic effort but aimed at disrupting incumbent protection.

Broader State Actions:

• Next battlegrounds: Missouri, Ohio, Indiana, Florida (Republican gerrymandering); New York, Illinois, Maryland (Democratic gerrymandering).
• States with Democratic control but limited redistricting upside (Oregon, Illinois, Maryland) have nearly maxed out their favorable seats.
• Immediacy Factor: “From an immediacy standpoint, Republicans are in a much better spot to quickly act.” (Jeffrey, 19:23)

2. Potential Consequences of Maximal Gerrymandering

• Geographic distribution of parties is less lopsided than in the 2010s, giving Democrats a potentially better long-term position.
• “Friend of the pod Nate Silver...makes a couple cases there, which is that in the 2010s there was a differential concentration between Republicans and Democrats that made it easier for Republicans to gerrymander...” (Galen, 16:29)
• Many blue states self-imposed constraints with commissions, which may slow their ability to fight back.

Deep South Speculation:

• If Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is overturned, Republicans could further dismantle Black-majority districts in Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana—potentially picking up even more seats.

3. New York City Mayoral Race Drama

Current Polling (pre-Labor Day 2025):

• Mamdani: 39%
• Cuomo: 25%
• Curtis Sliwa: 15%
• Eric Adams: 11%
• Jim Walden: 1.5%

Analysis & Color:

• Fragmented Field Favors Mamdani: “If all these candidates remain in the race, I don't see how Mamdani loses.” (Jeffrey, 30:44)
• All Candidates Disliked: Cuomo (-20 favorability), Adams (-40), Sliwa (-15 but a Republican in deep blue NYC).
  • “They're all pretty disliked.” (Jeffrey, 29:22)
• Scandal & Shenanigans: Bribery attempt with a bag of cash ("gesture of friendship and gratitude in Chinese culture")—“The stories with Adams, they're bordering on farce.” (Jeffrey, 35:53)
• Ethnic Politics:
  • Galen describes a tweet: "Mamdani calling Cuomo, Habibi. Cuomo calling Mamdani, Paisan. Adams calling himself Dominican. Ethnic politics will never die in New York City." (Galen, 34:41)

Democratic Party Stand-off:

• Establishment slow to endorse Mamdani, fearing national implications of being tied to a Democratic Socialist.
  • “I do think Democrats are maybe exaggerating the extent to which Mamdani is going to capture voters’ attention to that extent.” (Jeffrey, 37:40)
• Skelly suggests the real national focus will remain on President Trump, not Mamdani, in 2026.
• Mamdani’s campaign has refocused political discourse on affordability; even if his policies are “pie in the sky,” they've forced others to address the issue:
  • “Sometimes pie in the sky ideas mean that you're attracting voters' attention...you get to set the terms of the debate.” (Galen, 42:45)

4. 2026 National Political Environment

Democratic Prospects:

• Generic Ballot: Democrats lead by 2.5 points—good position for this “early” in the cycle.
  • “If they can gain a few more points...that's a really good sign for them.” (Jeffrey, 45:11)
• Midterms Usually Favor Party Out of the White House: Biden/Trump dynamic may shape turnout and energize Democrats.

Republican Prospects & Warning Signs for Democrats:

• NYT Reports Dem Voter Registration Crisis: Dems lost ground everywhere, especially among men and younger voters.
  • “It's unquestionably not good to be on that side of the trend.” (Jeffrey, 47:11)
• Voter Registration = Lagging Indicator: Switches may reflect past sentiment, but the trend among new registrants (particularly young men moving toward GOP) is concerning.
• Independents Growing: Makes both parties' futures less certain—independent registrations up, but their leanings differ by state and context.

Redistricting and House Control:

• Republicans likely benefit in short term from redistricting and are not defending many blue-leaning seats.
• “For Democrats, they're going to have to win and win some, some at least light red seats to win a majority.” (Jeffrey, 55:45)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps):

• On Texas Gerrymandering:
  “They definitely have turned three Democratic held seats into seats that Republicans will flip in 2026.”
  — Jeffrey (04:10)

• On Latino Voters in South Texas:
  “Oftentimes when there are these coalitional shifts, it'll be like, okay, the last ones in are the first ones out...”
  — Galen (05:36)

• On Ballot Initiative Dynamics:
  “Undecided voters… tend to vote no because they're like, I don't know, this is a lot of text and things seem to be fine the way that they are already.”
  — Galen (09:21)

• On California’s Commission History:
  “A lot of the effort that this independent commission was fighting against was bias in terms of keeping incumbents in their seats as opposed to any sort of, like, Democratic or Republican gerrymandering.”
  — Galen (14:35)

• On the Changing Political Map:
  “From an immediacy standpoint, Republicans are in a much better spot to quickly act.”
  — Jeffrey (19:23)

• Ethnic Politics in NYC:
  “Mamdani calling Cuomo, Habibi. Cuomo calling Mamdani, Paisan. Adams calling himself Dominican. Ethnic politics will never die in New York City.”
  — Galen (34:41)

• On Scandal in the NYC Race:
  “The stories with Adams, they're bordering on farce. Because, I mean, the idea that an Adams associate would just hand a potato chip bag with another little bag inside of it with, you know, a few hundred dollar bills—it’s just…”
  — Jeffrey (35:53)

• On Pie-in-the-Sky Ideas:
  “Pie in the sky ideas...sometimes just being like against it, against it, against it can be a trap in and of itself when your median voter is more worried about affordability...”
  — Galen (41:40)

• On Generic Ballot Positivity:
  “That’s a really good sign for them in terms of outdistancing Republicans and having a chance at winning a majority…”
  — Jeffrey (45:11)

Timeline of Key Segments

• 03:00 – 16:30: Deep dive into the new gerrymandered maps in Texas and California, how the coalitional and turnout dynamics in these states (especially among Latino voters) could disrupt expectations.
• 16:30 – 22:00: Geographical concentration shifts, long-term party advantage, and why Democrats have a harder time retaliating in the redistricting war.
• 22:00 – 27:00: Breakdown of prospects in IL, MD, OR, FL, and what could happen if court decisions or Voting Rights Act changes further open possibilities for GOP gains.
• 29:00 – 37:00: The wild and fractured NYC mayoral race, the challenge of a unified "anti-Mamdani" coalition, and the circus-like political environment.
• 37:00 – 44:00: The national ramifications of Mamdani’s left-populist campaign, the Democratic establishment’s hesitation, and the broader lesson about political messaging and “explaining vs. winning.”
• 44:00 – 54:00: Setting the 2026 midterm table: advantages, warnings, and the significance of generic ballot numbers, registration trends, new independent voters.
• 54:00 – End: The House map, competitive seats, and closing reflection on where each party stands for 2026.

Conclusion

This episode provides a thorough, data-driven, and often humorous examination of the new front lines in America’s gerrymandering war, the (dys)function of city politics in New York, and what it all means for the next major national elections. If gerrymandering continues unchecked, the country could see even less competition and more “safe” districts, raising questions about representation—and about the incentives for reform down the line. The conversation also underscores the new terrain for both parties: Democrats are battling demographic erosion and registration woes, while Republicans’ structural advantages are tested by evolving coalitions and urban-suburban shifts.

The podcast is highly recommended for anyone seeking to understand both the technical details and human drama of election politics in 2025.