GD POLITICS PODCAST Episode: Who Won The Government Shutdown? Host: Galen Druke Guest: Gabe Fleischer (Wake Up To Politics Newsletter) Date: November 10, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Galen Druke and guest Gabe Fleischer break down the end of the longest government shutdown in American history, analyzing who came out on top, how the deal was struck, and the implications for both parties. They discuss the politics and optics behind Democratic and Republican maneuvering, reactions to recent special elections, the internal party divides, and significant Supreme Court developments.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. End of the Shutdown: What Was in the Deal?

• [00:36] The Senate advanced a deal with eight Democratic senators joining Republicans to reopen the government, providing funding through January and restoring programs affected by the shutdown.
• Democrats secured a promise for a vote on enhanced Obamacare subsidies in December, reversal of shutdown-related layoffs, continued funding for the GAO, and its authority to sue the Trump administration.
• All eight Democrats supporting the deal are not up for reelection in 2026 and were criticized by party leaders.

2. Why Did Democrats "Fold" Now?

• [01:55] Despite favorable polling for Democrats and Trump's low approval rating, Democrats agreed to compromise.
• Gabe ([02:40]): "I think...the crucial turning point was this finding that...the shutdown could go on 40 days, 50 days, 60 days, go on for the rest of the year, and still there was no sign there would ever be a healthcare deal that would come out of the shutdown."
• The shutdown became unsustainable without progress on Democrats’ core demands.

3. Was This About the Filibuster?

• [04:11] Matt Yglesias argued the filibuster was central; Gabe counters that neither side had the votes for their maximal outcomes.
• Gabe ([04:54]): "I think, you know, Donald Trump is right that, like, there is no benefit in being the second party to be under, like, post filibuster control...I don't really think it helps Democrats much for Republicans to have ended the filibuster."

4. Did Democrats Really Lose? Messaging and Political Impact

• [06:49] Tim Miller (Bulwark) says Dems won by keeping Obamacare subsidies a campaign issue.
• Gabe ([07:50]): "I don't know if I would phrase it as a win for Democrats so much as not a loss ... that's always kind of the best you can hope for from a shutdown."
• The failure to win on policy preserves the issue for midterms but risks base disillusionment due to mismanaged expectations.

5. Democratic Leadership's Gambit

• [10:03] Schumer, Jeffries, and leadership aimed to align with the disappointed base; blamed "sacrificial" moderate senators.
• Gabe ([11:08]): "My guess is the members of the Democratic base who cared enough about this to be upset at Schumer in March will still be upset at him after this."

6. Obamacare Subsidies – What Happens Next?

• [12:14] Democrats were promised a vote in December; it’s expected to be a messaging bill without bipartisan appeal.
• Gabe ([13:05]): "There are conversations...looking at potential ways to kind of structure the Obamacare subsidies differently...I think these negotiations will continue. And there is certainly some interest on the Republican side on. On putting a deal like this together, but. But with a lot of different reforms..."

7. Historic Perspective: Did Dems Get More than Usual?

• [14:49] Gabe describes the outcome as "pretty equivalent" to past shutdown deals, citing 2018’s DACA shutdown as a parallel.
• Shutdown outcomes rarely yield core demands: “If you look at every single government shutdown in American history, there is not a single example of a party forcing a shutdown and then achieving their core demand.” ([07:50])

8. Internal Democratic Divides

• [17:05] Not a simple moderate-vs-progressive debate; divides more by institutionalists vs. “angry moderates,” age, and who faces political risk.
• Gabe ([18:06]): "There's a lot of truth to that last interpretation...these members are covering for a lot of others...Another important dividing line to note is age."

9. Will There Be Another Shutdown in January?

• [20:48] The deal funds some key programs but the risk of another shutdown looms.
• Gabe ([21:47]): "I think there's a strong reason to think could have another shutdown. The question, of course, being how would another one look any different?"

10. Electoral Results: Impact on D.C. Politics

• [26:01] Democrats swept recent special elections but Gabe warns not to over-read their predictive value.

• Gabe: "I'm personally pretty hesitant...to draw any larger conclusions from what is undoubtedly still a strong Democratic night." ([26:01])

• Republican Reaction – What’s Next for the GOP?

  • [27:19] Some Republicans, notably Vivek Ramaswamy, are calling for introspection.
  • GOP debate about whether to shift focus from social issues to economic concerns (e.g. tariffs, cost of living).
  • Gabe ([31:15]): “I think it's a real mix of diagnoses...the kind of narrative coming out of the Trump White House that, you know, inflation has been solved...maybe that's not a message that's working.”

11. Party Leadership and Cult of Personality

• [34:32] Discussion on whether U.S. presidential politics inherently encourages “cult of personality” leadership styles.
• Gabe ([34:32]): "Maybe the only way to kind of paper over any differences like that is to be like a Barack Obama or Donald Trump–like figure..."

12. Supreme Court: Two Big Developments

a. Obergefell Challenge Not Taken Up

• [38:01] The Supreme Court declined to take up a case challenging same-sex marriage rights; this was widely expected by court watchers.
• Gabe: "I think we've...heard statements from other...conservative justices that would have suggested there...wasn't much of an appetite to revisit same sex marriage."

b. Mail-In Ballots

• [40:43] SCOTUS will rule on whether Mississippi’s grace period for accepting mail-in ballots will stand—a case with significant election implications.

c. Trump Tariffs Case

• [41:55]–[46:31] Justices appeared skeptical of Trump’s broad tariff authority (IEEPA), with Gorsuch and Roberts notably challenging administration arguments.
• Gabe: "Gorsuch...went after him again and again, just really kind of knocking a number of holes in Sauer's arguments."
• The case affects only tariffs imposed under IEEPA, not those under other authorities, so most tariffs would remain even if struck down.
• The Court may try to minimize economic disruption if it rules against the administration.

13. What to Watch in Washington Next

• [50:42] Gabe is watching “bipartisan appropriations negotiations” as a potentially overlooked path to avoiding future shutdown drama.
• Senate appropriations have moved forward more productively than public clashes suggest; more bipartisan "minibus" funding bills may be possible.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Dems’ Shutdown Strategy:

  • “There's a lot of Democrats that were secretly hoping this would lead to the end of the filibuster. I don't really understand that, to be honest.” – Gabe ([04:54])

• On Democratic Messaging:

  • “I don't know if I would phrase it as a win for Democrats so much as not a loss, which I think is always kind of the best you can hope for from a shutdown.” – Gabe ([07:50])

• On Base Frustration:

  • "Any Democratic leaders that were telling their voters that the Obamacare subsidies were going to be extended by this were lying to them." – Gabe ([07:50])

• On Internal Divisions:

  • "I do think a lot of this does come down to this kind of age divide in the party...the longer senators have been there, it does seem like the more they've realized that over the long run it does help them to have the filibuster." – Gabe ([18:06])

• On shutdown politics:

  • "Shutdown brands are strong. So Americans perceive Republicans as the party of shutdowns." – Galen ([23:42])

• On Supreme Court skepticism of tariffs:

  • "There's no question the three liberal justices, you saw skepticism towards the tariffs. I would also put Gorsuch...as a vote probably against Trump in this case." – Gabe ([44:09])

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |----------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Shutdown Deal Summary | 00:36–01:54 | | Why Dems Folded / Public Polling | 01:55–04:11 | | Filibuster’s Role | 04:11–06:49 | | Did Dems Really Lose? | 06:49–10:03 | | Party Leadership/Expectations | 10:03–12:14 | | Obamacare Subsidies — Next Steps | 12:14–14:49 | | Historic Context of Shutdown Outcomes | 14:49–17:05 | | Democratic Divides | 17:05–20:48 | | Will There Be Another Shutdown? | 20:48–23:42 | | Election Results, D.C. Effects | 26:01–27:43 | | GOP Intraparty Debates | 27:43–34:32 | | Party Leadership/Cult of Personality | 34:32–37:17 | | Supreme Court — Obergefell, Mail Ballots | 38:01–41:55 | | Supreme Court — Tariffs Arguments | 41:55–46:31 | | Possible Outcomes of Tariffs Case | 46:31–50:01 | | What’s Next in Congress | 50:42–52:37 |

Episode Tone and Style

The conversation is rigorous but accessible, with a touch of dry humor (“You’re like Forrest Gump. Every topic I bring up, you were in Congress for the shutdown, you were in the Supreme Court for the tariffs.” — Galen [00:09]). Both host and guest blend deep policy analysis with candid reflections on party strategy and the quirks of Washington politics.

This summary delivers a comprehensive look at the causes, consequences, and behind-the-scenes strategies of the government shutdown endgame — and adds political and legal context from recent Supreme Court action and mid-cycle elections. It's ideal for those wanting a clear, in-depth recap of current U.S. political dynamics.