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Global News Podcast
The Global Story: The US and Israel entered the Iran war together. Is Israel now being sidelined?
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Anton Pfeffer
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Anton Pfeffer
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Tristan Redman
Hey there.
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Asma Khalid
I'm Asma Khalid.
- [01:10]
Tristan Redman
And I'm Tristan Redman. And we're here with a bonus episode for you from the Global Story podcast.
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Asma Khalid
The world order is shifting.
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Tristan Redman
Old alliances are fraying and new ones are emerging.
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Asma Khalid
Some of this turbulence can be traced to decisions made in the United States.
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Tristan Redman
But the US Isn't just a cause of the upheaval. Its politics are also a symptom of it.
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Every day we focus on one story looking at how America and the world shape each other.
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Asma Khalid
So we hope you enjoy this episode
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Tristan Redman
and to find more of our show, just search for the Global Story wherever you get your BBC podcasts. When the ceasefire with Iran was announced last month, it was done so in typical Trump fashion in a post on a Tuesday evening on Truth Social. In a lengthy message filled with quite a few words in all caps and a couple of exclamation points, the US President wrote that it is an honor to have this long term problem close to resolution. The post had 206 words and no mention of Israel, the other key country in this all. In fact, it was hours later when a matter of fact statement was released by the Israeli Prime Minister's office that read in part, israel supports President Trump's decision to suspend strikes against Iran. For the last several weeks there has been this ongoing debate here in the US on both sides of the political aisle about how large a role Benjamin Netanyahu played in convincing the American President to launch a war against Israel's biggest enemy.
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Interviewer
Do you think the public fully grasped just how influential Netanyahu was in President Trump's decision to attack Iran? What have you learned?
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Joe Kent
President Trump was impressed by what he heard. He didn't completely say yes right there, but he did say, sounds good to me, or something to that effect to the prime Minister.
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Interviewer
The United States went to war in Iran at the behest and then the demand of Israel.
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Joe Kent
Joe Kent, director of the National Counterterrorism center, writing, it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.
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Tristan Redman
But when it comes to ending these wars, where's NETANYAHU? From the BBC, I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. and today on the Global Story, Trump and Netanyahu went to war together. But are they still in sync? We'll get the view from Israel.
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Anton Pfeffer
My name is Anton Pfeffer. I'm the Israel correspondent of the Economist.
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Asma Khalid
And you've also written a book, is that right, about the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.
- [03:48]
Anton Pfeffer
I published an unauthorized biography of Netanyahu called Bibi. It's here over my shoulder. Product placement.
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Asma Khalid
Can I ask you on that note, is there something you feel that many people don't understand about him, that you do? Having covered him for a number of
- [04:06]
Anton Pfeffer
years, I'll mention one thing which I think is important to understand about him. You interview a lot of people and you've interviewed politicians, so you know that when you interview a politician, they're on record. And there's, you know, you're recording them or you're filming them, or you've got a notebook open, whatever. And then there's a moment when the interview ends and you're no longer on the record, and you close your notebook, but you're still sitting with the politician. And it's like things are calmer and you can crack a joke. There's this feeling that the politician is no longer on the stage, is no longer putting up an acting, have to be on message and you can say something. And sometimes in that situation, politicians will say things to you which they would never say in public. With Netanyahu, there isn't this sort of thing. Anyone who's ever sat with Netanyahu will tell you that on record and off record are the same. He has his message, he has his way of saying it, but he's totally convinced of it in the moment. And when you're no longer on record, he'll still be saying the same messages. Now, the message may change, but when he's saying it he believes in it. And people will say Netanyahu's not trustworthy. And it's true that there have been many cases when he hasn't been telling the truth, but he believes it. He's a very convincing person. The first person he convinces is always himself.
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Asma Khalid
Well, Angela, I'm here in Washington, D.C. and where I sit, there's been a really active debate, I will say, on both sides of the political aisle, both amongst Republicans and Democrats, about Israel's influence in American politics and in particular influencing the war in Iran. And at the beginning of the Iran war, we heard the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu say that America's involvement was allowing Israelis to do what, or in the words of Benjamin Netanyahu, to do what I have been hoping to do for 40 years. There's been a lot of reporting here in the US Press about Netanyahu's taking an active role in encouraging Trump to launch these strikes. And I wanted to know from your vantage point, what is the sense of the power balance between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump?
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Anton Pfeffer
Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have a long standing relationship. Netanyahu is the only world leader that Donald Trump knows from way back. They go back to the 1980s when Netanyahu was stationed in New York as Israel's Ambassador to the United nations. And Donald Trump was an up and coming real estate tycoon. And so they know each other from back then. Donald Trump went into this war and committed America to this war. I think he's the one who has to be held responsible. But there's no question that Netanyahu had a hand in influencing it. I think originally back in January, and
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Donald Trump
by the way, to all Iranian patriots, keep protesting.
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Anton Pfeffer
When Donald Trump said to the Iranian
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Donald Trump
protesters his help is on its way, you saw that I put tariffs on anybody doing business with Iran. Just went into effect today. And I say make Iran great again.
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Anton Pfeffer
Netanyahu. Hold on, wait a moment. You don't just launch a strike just like that. It has to be properly prepared. And that's when we saw this. Six or seven weeks of a military buildup in the region which led to the war that began on February 28th. Now, when the war did happen, it was quite unprecedented. Cooperation, sort of a joint campaign by America and Israel at the same time. We've seen various points over the last 16 months that time and again, points where Trump sort of loses his patience with Netanyahu, with Netanyahu's policies, and especially with the way in which Netanyahu has been dragging on the various wars in which Israel has been involved in. In each of these cases, there was a point where Trump kind of said, enough is enough.
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Donald Trump
We achieved an epic cease fire agreement as a first step toward lasting peace in the Middle East.
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Anton Pfeffer
In January last year, Trump imposed, basically imposed a ceasefiring gaze on Israel.
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Donald Trump
And this agreement could only have happened as a result of our historic victory in November.
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Anton Pfeffer
The ceasefire collapsed after a month or so. But then in October, Trump said, that's
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Donald Trump
it now at last, not only for Israelis, but also for Palestinians and for many others, the long and painful nightmare is finally over.
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Anton Pfeffer
And he basically said the sides have agreed to a ceasefire even though they hadn't really agreed and imposed on Israel, they cease fire and Hamas to release the Israeli hostages it was holding for two years.
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Donald Trump
Today, the skies are calm, the guns are silent, the sirens are still, and the sun rises on a holy land that is finally at peace.
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Anton Pfeffer
So that was something that Trump did on his own accord.
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Asma Khalid
And how is that perceived?
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Anton Pfeffer
Well, it's perceived as Trump dictating terms on it. And now that's. Israelis are not buying. We're seeing that in the polls, even amongst Israelis who still support Netanyahu. The huge majority in the surveys say, well, this is something that Trump forced upon Netanyahu. And since Israel is a country, I think probably one of the very few, if not the only country where Donald Trump is very popular, it's something that passes. And even though Netanyahu said that this is a decision that we were part of, there's no illusion that this is something that Netanyahu wanted. It's very clear that Donald Trump is imposed two ceasefires in Gaza. Then he basically unilaterally ended the war with Iran back in June. And Iran launching missiles and then Israel, Israel launching a wave of planes. We saw that rant of Trump on the White House lawn where he used the F bomb and said, yeah, what they doing? And called Netanyahu up and said, call the planes back. That was very clear who was calling the shots. And basically, Donald Trump is the only person who can tell Netanyahu, stop wars. And now, finally, just in the last two or three weeks, this war that they began together, Donald Trump is the one who announced that there's a ceasefire.
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Asma Khalid
Yeah, I wanna ask you about that, Anshell. This was on, at least here in the U.S. it was the night of April 7, I believe, late at night, President Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran unilaterally. This is a war, as you say, that Israel and the United States joined together. But it was Announced by only one of those two parties. How was it received in Israel when that announcement first came down?
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Anton Pfeffer
Well, it was very much seen here as if there will be a deal between, you know, with Iran to end this war. This will be a deal between America and Iran. And Israel's not even at the table. The talks, which were in Pakistan, Israel was not there. When Trump finally did announce the ceasefire, he called Netanyahu to notify him. But like I said, that was to notify him. It wasn't to say, are you okay with this ceasefire? Donald Trump, despite the closeness of their relationship, still isn't asking Netanyahu's agreement on whether or not to end this war with a woman.
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Tristan Redman
How do you interpret that?
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Asma Khalid
I mean, was the announcement a blow for Netanyahu?
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Anton Pfeffer
Yes, it's being perceived here as sort of Israel not achieving the aims that Netanyahu presented. Netanyahu said that Israel would basically destroy Israel, Iran's nuclear program and missile programs. And yes, obviously a lot of damage has been done to those programs. But we saw that the Iranian missiles were still being launched even after the ceasefire. So the missile program, the missile capabilities are still there. The 400 plus kilos of weapon grades, or almost weapon grades, enriched uranium, are still underground. And the other aim that Netanyahu stated for this war, to crush the Iranian regime, to prepare the ground for a mass uprising, that hasn't happened yet. So the perception in Israel is that Israel went to war with America and then Donald Trump ended it, or at least hit pause before any of these aims could be achieved. And the deal, if a deal is reached, will be a deal based on Donald Trump's interests and America's interests, and not so much perhaps on Israel's terms.
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Asma Khalid
Angel, I want to follow up on the ceasefire that we were speaking of just a moment ago, the ceasefire that was announced between the United States and Iran. This was on April 7th, late in the night here at US time. And when that ceasefire was announced, there was some confusion about whether Lebanon was part of the agreement. And just to remind listeners, Lebanon was the other big front in the war where Israel had been fighting Iran's proxy Hezbollah.
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Lowe's Store Announcer
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Ryan Seacrest
Explosions in the Middle east threatening a fragile ceasefire.
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Asma Khalid
And in fact, the next day, we saw the Israeli military intensify strikes into Lebanon yesterday.
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Anton Pfeffer
Israeli strikes killing at least 250 people, according to Lebanon's Ministry of Health, saying
- [13:24]
Asma Khalid
that struck around 100 sites in 10 minutes. Can you explain why the Israeli prime minister decided not just to continue strikes in Lebanon after that announced ceasefire, but to intensify them. Almost immediately after the ceasefire, news came through.
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Anton Pfeffer
Well, there was an intention to try and create a clear divide between the situation with Iran and the situation in Lebanon. And and to make it clear that the Iranians couldn't dictate a ceasefire through their talks with America for Israel against Lebanon. So, yes, Netanyahu had no choice but to accept the fact that there was a ceasefire in Iran because that was a war that he was pursuing together with America and America is the senior partner. And Donald Trump says there's a ceasefire, there's a ceasefire. But then he said, but we have an issue here with Hezbollah who have attacked us, and now we're trying to take them, you know, we're trying to destroy their military capabilities and we're not going to accept a ceasefire. So Trump humored him for a few days. But after a few days, he once again announced, as he had done several times before, that there's also a ceasefire in Lebanon.
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Asma Khalid
Yeah, I read this report that in a phone win interview with an Israeli journalist, he told Netanyahu to low key it a bit.
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Anton Pfeffer
That was after a couple of days. But then they did low key it a bit in the sense that they didn't carry out any more attacks on targets in Beirut, but they did continue airstrikes. And then after three or four more days, Trump came out with his announcement. I think it was almost two weeks ago when he said, now is a 10 day ceasefire. And I've spoken to Netanyahu and I've spoken to Lebanese President Aoun, and that's it. And we're going to reach an incredible agreement between Israel and Lebanon. And then he extended that by another couple more weeks. So once again, we're seeing how at some point Trump is saying to Netanyahu, enough is enough. And he basically said in one of his posts on his social media network that Israel is prohibited, and he wrote the word prohibited in block capitals from carrying out strikes in Lebanon. Now, the war in Lebanon is actually continuing in a sort of a low level.
- [15:38]
Asma Khalid
And it still is, you're saying, despite that announcement.
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Anton Pfeffer
Well, they saw Israeli troops on the ground and they're destroying in southern Lebanon, destroying buildings which they say have been used by Hezbollah as bases for attacks on Israel. And Hezbollah is still launching drones and missiles at the Israeli troops. But the wider airstrikes Israel was carrying out throughout Lebanon against what they say were Hezbollah targets, that is basically covered by the ceasefire. That's not happening now. So we still have in that strip of land around about 10 km from Israel's border with Lebanon, we still have on the ground there a conflict, but it's much more of a low level conflict.
- [16:17]
Asma Khalid
Now, you mention that this ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, though it does not involve Hezbollah, like they were not a party to this overall agreement. Nonetheless, though, Israel and Lebanon, two countries that hadn't had formal talks in years, Trump got them together. The Trump administration, President Trump announced that ceasefire. And what I want to understand is the United States was technically not involved in that war, right, between Israel and Hezbollah, nor was he involved in Lebanon. Why would Netanyahu have agreed to the talks?
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Anton Pfeffer
Netanyahu can't say no to Donald Trump. One of the main assets that Netanyahu is presenting to the Israeli voters is that no prime minister has ever had this kind of relationship that I have with such a friendly and such a supportive American president. And once Netanyahu has invested himself so heavily in this relationship, and this is what he's showing to the Israeli public as one of his main assets, that he can't afford to anger Donald Trump. And Netanyahu's biggest nightmare is that some point from now until the election, Donald Trump would openly turn against him and say the kind of stuff we've seen him saying about other leaders around the world. So Netanyahu sees that as a major political liability. And Donald Trump knows that he has leverage over Netanyahu. And as we've seen, Trump doesn't just say to Netanyahu, okay, announce the ceasefire now. Trump announces it himself, basically daring Netanyahu to contradict him. And Netanyahu doesn't dare to contradict him. And the last ceasefire, two weeks ago that he announced in Lebanon, he called up Netanyahu and he said, there's going to be a ceasefire in Lebanon. That's it. And Netanyahu was about to inform his cabinet and maybe hold a vote on it, but obviously it would have been a rubber stamp. But even before Netanyahu could inform the cabinet, Trump had already announced it. So it was quite humiliating for Netanyahu. They say to his ministers, well, there's a ceasefire. And they said, we haven't even discussed it. Well, he said, well, Donald Trump wants it, and that's that.
- [18:32]
Asma Khalid
You know, the ceasefire in Lebanon, when President Trump announced that, how did it go down with the Israeli public? And the reason I'm asking that is that our colleague Nick Beek was out recently reporting, and he interviewed someone who told him that the majority of Israelis don't want the fighting in Lebanon to be over until and unless Hezbollah gives up their arms. I know you were out reporting in the north of Israel. Does that jive with what you've heard?
- [19:00]
Anton Pfeffer
Well, there certainly are people who are saying that, and there are people who are saying that they think that the war in Lebanon is useless, but they're saying in essence that they want a solution whereby Hezbollah can no longer strike Israeli communities in the north. Now, Israelis have lots of views. There's certainly not a consensus on what's the best policy in Lebanon. But whatever people think should be done, whether it should be a devastating campaign or it should be diplomacy, the feeling that none of these things are really happening, what's just happening is that there is someone else sitting in Washington pressing a sort of a play and a pause button.
- [19:39]
Asma Khalid
Is that really how it's perceived, Eshal, that it's. It's someone in Washington who pushes play and pause?
- [19:44]
Anton Pfeffer
No. Donald Trump is making it very clear. I mean, the way in which he's announced the ceasefire is the way in which he said Israel is prohibited from airstrikes, and the way that Netanyahu takes hours and hours to sort of respond and come up with some statement doesn't give Israelis any reason to believe that.
- [20:02]
Asma Khalid
And yet you say President Trump remains enormously popular in Israel.
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Anton Pfeffer
Yes, because Trump has spent so much time praising Israel and saying good things about Israel. In his first term, he carried out policies which Israelis thought were pro Israeli, like moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights and other things like that. And the mood music of the Trump administration has been, this is the most supportive administration ever for Israel. Now, you could argue whether all these policies are good for Israel in the long term, but the perception in Israel is that Trump is someone on their side. But it certainly is putting Netanyahu in a very bad position because he, on the one hand, says, what a great relationship I have with Donald Trump. And there's never been a closer relationship between Israeli prime minister and American president. And at the same time, it's never been so clear that he's not calling the shots and that Trump is imposing cease. I mean, it's not that it never happened in the past that America pressured Israel into ceasefires in previous conflicts, but it was always something that, at least for appearances sake, would be allowed to be seen as Israel making the decisions. Trump, as we've seen, is a different type of president than any of those who preceded him, and he's very interested in showing how he calls the shock.
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- [25:04]
Asma Khalid
You mentioned earlier that there have been these talks, though they seem to not really have materialized lately. The latest iteration of these talks between the Americans and the Iranians in Pakistan to try to get some sort of deal. I wondered why the Israelis were not part of those talks. I mean, I realize Pakistan and Israel don't have a diplomatic relationship and it's worth pointing out that the talks to end the war in Iran, a war started by the US And Israel, were happening in a country in which Israel doesn't have a diplomatic relationship with. And I just wondered why Israel was not part of those talks. And did the Israeli government feel sidelined,
- [25:44]
Anton Pfeffer
interested in having anyone else there? He wants to end the war on his terms and he's did he ask
- [25:51]
Asma Khalid
the Israeli government at all to come? No, he did not. You know that he did not ask.
- [25:55]
Anton Pfeffer
It's simply not an issue for Donald Trump. He is the guy who is going to decide. From his perspective, I'm sure the Iranians will have his say as well. He may take some of Israel's interest into consideration and there certainly will be conversations between him and Netanyahu and other people in his team will be talking to Netanyahu about this. But ultimately Trump isn't interested in someone else helping him to shape the post war. And I think he's also worried that Netanyahu has other interests and he's to some level he's prepared to indulge in Netanyahu's interests, but not all of them.
- [26:34]
Asma Khalid
But Esha, when those talks were happening, right? This was when was this? The weekend?
- [26:38]
Tristan Redman
I think it was April 11, right?
- [26:40]
Asma Khalid
When these talks were happening in mid April in Pakistan. I mean it was a big deal, right? To have the vice president of the United States go, how was that perceived by the Israeli public? I mean, did the Israeli government feel sidelined?
- [26:51]
Tristan Redman
I just wonder what is it like
- [26:52]
Asma Khalid
to be sitting far away watching the news happen and they were not involved in those talks?
- [26:58]
Anton Pfeffer
Well, as you say that they did feel sidelined. And I think it's interesting that J.D. vance is seen here in Jerusalem by the Israeli government as probably the least pro Israel figure of, you know, the senior figure in the, in the administration, really. J.D. vance is seen as sort of the head of the isolationist wings in the administration, and he has a level of relationship with Tucker Carlson, who's now very, very anti Israel. So there's a, you know, there's this quite a lot of concern in Israel whenever JD Vance takes the leadership on foreign policy. I know it's been watching, it's been seen that Trump maybe is kind of setting Vance up for a fall, and that also may be the case. But Rif Rubio was running the show. I think in Jerusalem, there'd be a lot less concerned. So not only is Israel sidelined, but, you know, the main, the chief negotiator for the United States is the figure in administration who Israelis feel least comfortable about.
- [27:59]
Asma Khalid
The final question I have is that we've talked about the fact that here in the United States, the war in Iran is a political liability for President Trump and Republicans. And it could factor into the mood, the overall mood that voters have when
- [28:14]
Tristan Redman
they cast their ballots this November in
- [28:17]
Asma Khalid
the midterms here in the United States. And I'm curious if the wars are a liability for Netanyahu. My understanding is that Israeli elections must
- [28:27]
Tristan Redman
be held by October of this year.
- [28:29]
Anton Pfeffer
So we saw, you know, in the polls in the last couple of weeks, support for Netanyahu going down. We saw his coalition losing a couple of seats. I mean, these are just polls what will happen in the election. But he certainly hasn't emerged well from this war as far as the Israeli public is concerned. I've spoken to political scientists who see these things through theoretical frameworks that what's happened in Israel, like any country which has been attacked, Israel was attacked on October 7, and then October 8 by Hezbollah is rallying around the flag effect. But one of the things that the classic rallying around the flag effect includes is not just support for the war and support for the armed forces and so on. It's also support for the leadership for
- [29:18]
Asma Khalid
the leader, in theory.
- [29:18]
Kohler Cast Iron Ambassador
Right.
- [29:19]
Asma Khalid
I mean, I think of George W. Bush after 9, 11. Yeah.
- [29:21]
Anton Pfeffer
Yes. Because that is the classic thing. If you look at countries where you have the rallying around the flag effect, you'll always see a bump, a major bump of support for the leader. In this case, we didn't see that. So every poll conducted in the last two and a half years has shown a lack of support a lack of trust for Netanyahu, his party and the parties in his coalition polling much worse. So it's a unique phenomenon where the majority of the public in the country support the war but do not support the war leader.
- [29:56]
Asma Khalid
So what happens if these objectives are not achieved by October?
- [29:59]
Anton Pfeffer
I'm not going to predict the outcome of the election because it's in six months and the polls have often been against him and he's somehow managed to turn them around.
- [30:08]
Asma Khalid
Does this moment feel different?
- [30:10]
Anton Pfeffer
Well, everything is different after October 7th in the sense that Israelis are in this traumatic loop that they don't seem able to break. I think if Netanyahu does lose this election, there will be a major period of reckoning in Israel. And that will, you know, that's, that's going to be for a lot of things that have happened that led up to October 7th and happened since. And all these things have been blocked by Netanyahu because he wants to end this in some incredible victory where everyone else will run up white flags and surrender and he will be the great victor of the Middle East. And it looks like time is running out for that to happen, if it ever could happen.
- [31:02]
Asma Khalid
Well, Anshul, thank you for taking the time to speak with us. It's been really informative.
- [31:07]
Anton Pfeffer
Thank you for having me.
- [31:12]
Tristan Redman
That was the Economist Israel correspondent Angel Pfeffer, who's also written a biography of the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He was speaking to us from Jerusalem and as always, a reminder that we, we love hearing from you all, from listeners. So if you all have any story ideas or questions for us, you can send us a note. Our email address is theglobalstorybc.com and here at the Global Story. As you all know, we go deep every weekday on one big story at the intersection of where the world and America meet. If you're also looking for a way to catch up on the latest headlines from around the world, then check out our sister show, the Global news podcast. Today's Episode was produced by Sam Chantarasic and Zandra Ellen. It was edited by China Collins, who's also our senior news editor. It was mixed by Travis Evans. Our video producer was Matt Pintus. And I'm Asma Khalid. That's it for the Global Story today. Thanks as always for tuning in and we'll talk to you again.
- [32:18]
Tim (Electrician)
Yes you can. A five minute quick and easy calorie burning workout. Give it a try. Come join our sweat sesh on TikTok.