Nick Marsh (3:13)

Nine days into the war, Donald Trump gives an interview to CBS News.

Celia Hatton (3:18)

I just spoke with President Trump a

Liz Doucet (3:20)

short time ago and he said that

Celia Hatton (3:22)

he thinks the war is very complete. Pretty much.

Nick Marsh (3:28)

So understandably, the price of oil plummets because there's the prospect of the Strait of Hormuz completely reopening and world oil flows getting back to what they were. That statement was first reported on X at 16 minutes past 3 Eastern Time on the 9th of March, 47 minutes before there's a very, very noticeable spike in oil contracts being traded worth millions and millions of dollars. That's unusual for that time of day on a Monday. These traders who put this money on oil basically will have made an awful lot of money from it through a strategy known as short selling. You know, when the price of oil goes down, probably don't have time to get into that, but rest assured, they will have made an awful lot of money through that.

Celia Hatton (4:19)

So, Nick, how did you find this information? Was it easy to find? And is it the same traders placing these, these suspicious trades each time?

Nick Marsh (4:28)

Well, look, this is publicly available information and there are other market analysts who have been pointing this out all throughout Donald Trump's presidency that there are unusual trade activities that have, that have occurred in terms of who placed these trades. Very difficult to know. The only people who know who place these trades are the traders themselves, potentially anyone that supplied them with the information on which these trades were placed. And also crucially, the US Financial regulators, they do have the ability to investigate and find out who were placing these trades. I reached out to the cftc, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. They didn't respond to me, but their chair has been speaking recently about the need to crack down on insider trading. The same goes for the securities and Exchange Commission, which look after the stock market. But when I specifically put these specific instances which, you know, were analyzed in my report, I didn't get any updates on to how those investigations were going or indeed whether they had even started.

Celia Hatton (5:38)

And experts are split, Nick, on whether this is evidence of insider trading.

Nick Marsh (5:44)

Well, look, there's a school of thought that some people, you know, very, very sophisticated market operators are getting really good at trying to anticipate when Donald Trump will say something, when he'll intervene. They'll look at the market conditions and say, well, he's got to do something because it's not looking good for him. So he'll say something maybe today, maybe tomorrow, and then place trades Based on that, bets placed on the stock market are based on a huge range of information and intuition and things like that. But there are a lot of experts, many, many market analysts, many people who look at the consistent pattern of spikes in trade before the US President says something and moves markets and say this is unusual.

Celia Hatton (6:25)

So, Nick, what has the Trump administration said?

Nick Marsh (6:28)

Well, I received no response when I contacted the White House. But you have had spokespeople in the past making it clear they strenuously deny any form of insider trading. There was one spokesman who told another outlet last month it didn't tolerate any administration official in illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge. There was an email actually circulated to White House staff quite recently warning them not to place bets on these predictions markets based on insider information. But again, at the time, the White House spokesman told us that any suggestion that insider trading was happening was false reporting.

Celia Hatton (7:08)

Nick Marsh and Nick's full investigative story is available on the BBC news website. Let's take a look now at the US War with Iran and the prospect of peace talks to end that conflict. The Pakistani government is preparing to host a second round of negotiations, but it's still unclear if they'll actually go ahead. President Trump said on social media on Sunday that his representatives are going to Islamabad and would be there by Monday evening. And the Iranian president, Masoud Pezeshkian, has said that every rational and diplomatic path should be used to reduce tensions. But Tehran has not confirmed it, sending anyone to talks. We'll be hearing from Liz Doucet in just a moment who is reporting for us from Tehran. First, here's Caroline Davies who's in the Pakistani capital about the latest prospects for any talks.

Caroline Davies (8:00)

We have seen a lot of preparations underway here in Pakistan. There have been further road blockades, a large amount of the diplomatic area, the Red Zone has been essentially sealed off at the moment. So a lot of preparations underway. We've also just heard that Pakistan's interior minister has met the Iranian ambassador here in Pakistan who has been quite vocal throughout the course of these back and forth negotiations. The sort of messaging that we're getting from that is again Pakistan saying to Iran that they advocate for a peaceful solution, to have these discussions, to have these talks. It's what we've heard repeatedly from Pakistan throughout the course of these discussions. We know Pakistan has of course been running this back channel between the two countries and re emphasizing again that all the necessary security arrangements have already been put in place. Same time we're hearing a lot of escalatory language that is coming from both from the US and from Iran, of course, and particularly from President Trump, who said that if there wasn't a deal found between the US And Iran, that he was standing ready to hit every bridge and every power plant inside Iran. Iran on the other side have been saying that they don't think that the US Is serious about negotiations. And at the moment, they haven't made a decision about whether or not they will come here.

Celia Hatton (9:16)

Caroline Davies in Islamabad. As I mentioned, our chief international correspondent, Liz Do Said is in the Iranian capital, Tehran. Liz has been allowed to report from inside the country on condition that her material is not broadcast on the BBC's Persian service. Similar restrictions apply to all international media working in Iran. I spoke to her earlier and I began by asking her about the Iranian flagged cargo ship that was seized by the United States on Sunday.

Liz Doucet (9:44)

It just seemed it was going to be a matter of time before confrontation like this took place. You have the two rival buildup, you have the buildup of U.S. military force in the Gulf. You have those two rival blockades. And from what we understand, and this is according to the American account, that they had given warnings for six hours to the Iranian flagged vessel. The warnings, they say, were ignored. So the US Navy opened fire at the ship, disabling the engine, and then they boarded it and took custody of the ship. This is the first time an incident of this time has happened since the blockade, US Blockade of Iran's port came into force. And even though the Iranian military, its joint command has threatened to retaliate, we were just hearing that they are holding off for now until they are sure that the crew on board the Tuska, the name of the ship, is safe. So there's a bit of a pause there. There was that post on social media by President Trump in which, you know, in exclamatory tones, we've got the chip. We're going to have a look at what they've got on board. So we're still waiting to get more clarity on exactly what happened. But what is clear is that it has had an impact on the already uncertain possibility as to whether the Iranians were ready to go and join those talks in, in Islamabad.

Celia Hatton (11:05)

It's interesting that you tie the two together, Lise. I mean, we just heard from Caroline Davies in Pakistan. But you're in Iran. What's the mood on the ground when it comes to any possible talks with

Liz Doucet (11:17)

the U.S. well, there's been a press conference at the Foreign Ministry here a short time ago, and the Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Ismail Bagai had said that they have no plans so far. I mean that's, that's the important phrase so far to go to Islamabad. And we have to bear in mind that even before this incident, Iranian officials kept silent in response to that swirl of media reports on Sunday, including posts and interviews by President Trump saying that the talks were going to happen, saying that he was sending his envoys. And the Iranian officials said nothing. But Iranian media said that no decision would be taken on the talks for as long as that US Naval blockade was in force. And now as we've been discussing, not only is the blockade still in force, there has been this incident. And to add to the mix, the Iranians had also had concerns that the two sides simply weren't ready for high level talks. The Iranian account of what they agree with the Americans public statements, yes, some progress was achieved in those first high level face to face talks in Islamabad the first time. But they talk about many gaps that fundamental issues remain. There is talk of a framework of understanding. We understand that from their perspective, it's not quite right. What you have here is not just a chasm, of course, in two very different political cultures, two very different endgames, two countries with their own red lines, but also two very different negotiating styles. The Iranians like to take the long view. They like to take as long as possible before they make what are really difficult political concessions. President Trump likes to take as little time as possible. He likes to do the big deal. He's even been talking about a deal within days, which just doesn't seem possible. Whether they can find a point in the middle for the kind of serious and sustained negotiations that create the possibility of the give and take compromises by both sides for what they could call a win win situation just isn't clear.

Celia Hatton (13:23)

Liz, you've been there for a few days. How are people coping in general assuming that this, this CONF conflict continues for a while?

Liz Doucet (13:34)

Well, we've been in Tehran now for several days. Our last visit was in February. What can I say? That the situation which was hard in February is even harder now. We were stunned by the, the level of inflate inflation here was at 60% in February. Now we went to see, pharmacy prices are even higher now. Some of the imported medicines are in short supply. The near total Internet blackout is still in force. There's not a single Iranian that we've spoken to has said they believe that this fragile ceasefire meant to expire on Wednesday is going to last. This is a country bear in mind 92 million people, of course there's going to be a vast range of views. And you, you hear, for example, some people have said to us, we don't want the talks to succeed. We want to keep fighting. These are the kind of hardline comments they want to punish the United States not ready to give in to President Trump's demands. But you also have, we've also had Iranians saying to us, we don't want the talks to succeed because they don't want anything which would help keep this system, which is now dominated by hardliners, in power. But I think in the middle, you get so many Iranians who really are exhausted. They're still shaken by those weeks of war, shaken by the crackdown with lethal force in January which killed tens of possibly tens of thousands of people. And they just want sanctions to be lifted. They want to get on their lives. They want to have something which could be approaching what we would all regard as a normal life, not constantly in a standoff with the West.

Celia Hatton (15:12)

Lise Doucet reporting from Tehran, Staying with the war in Iran and the effects it's having far beyond the region. Countries in East Africa now facing mounting economic pressure. Because of that conflict, there are disrupted trade routes, rising freight costs and fuel shortages. Kenya's tea estates and flower farms are just some of the businesses affected. Caleb Moggis reports from Nairobi.

Caleb Moggis (15:39)

Fresh green tea leaves being processed for preservation before packaging for export. With ongoing conflict in the Middle east disrupting air and sea transport routes to key markets, Kenyan farmers and exporters are worried. The country's horticulture sector, which is worth over $800 million annually, has been hit hard. Jay Hirani, sales manager at Primarosa Flowers, says his company is losing thousands of dollars per day.

Jay Hirani (16:09)

We export to a lot of countries in the Middle east, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq as well. Our losses can be anywhere between 30 to $50,000 a day, and that is a huge amount considering 80% of our market is Middle East.

Caleb Moggis (16:31)

Kenya's tea sector is also feeling the pressure. The country is reporting weekly losses of up to $1.4 million from tea export since the U. S. Israel war on Iran began. This is Limuru, a place about 30km from Kenyan capital, Nairobi. Large plantations here support thousands of farmers and workers as Kenya heavily relies on tea export to the global market. But the ongoing conflict in the Middle east is disrupting this trend. Samuel Kariuki, who manages Gatoni park farm in Limuru, is concerned about operational costs.

Samuel Kariuki (17:09)

The freight charges and the shipment cost stuff will also be skyrocketing. So that would mean that we're able to export less of our tea. We are going to have another surplus of the tea because so many people and farmers will be producing tea, but you do not have like a natural market to take it to.

Caleb Moggis (17:28)

According to East Africa Tea trade association, 8 million kg of tea has been stuck in warehouses in Kenya's port city of Mombasa for weeks, threatening export earnings and farmer incomes. George omuga is the association's managing director.

George Omuga (17:45)

The Middle east takes an average of 20, 25% from this auction and Pakistan, which also neighbours Iran, buys 40%. So we are talking about a market share of 65%. Should this war continue, the negative consequences will be more severe.

Caleb Moggis (18:04)

With a fragile ceasefire, smooth passage through one of the world's most important shipping lanes, the Strait of Hormuz, may not be guaranteed and exporters in the region fear that the worst is yet to come.

Celia Hatton (18:16)

Caleb Mogis in Nairobi still to come

Sana Carigani (18:20)

in this podcast, we've been hearing from banks saying that they've run Mythos and found a year's worth of patches and security things that they need to update. Banks should really be be taking this to the top table kind of immediately.

Celia Hatton (18:33)

The UK Security Agency issues warnings over powerful new AI technology.

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Trace Dominguez (21:12)

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Celia Hatton (22:44)

This is the global news podcast. Let's move to Japan, where a big earthquake has struck off the country's northeastern coast. The underwater quake caused a tsunami, and people living near coastal areas and rivers were warned to immediately move to higher ground and watch for further quakes. This was an ANNOUNCER ON the Japanese broadcaster nhk Shortly after the quake hit,

NHK Announcer (23:07)

there are offshore tsunami observed off the coast of Iwate Prefecture. This means that waves are approaching Iwate Prefecture and there are tsunami warnings in place also for Almori's Pacific coast and Hokkaido's central Pacific coast. If you are in these areas, you must evacuate now. Go to higher ground, do not go back, do not stay near the coastline or near riverbanks because tsunami can cause waves to go inland.

Celia Hatton (23:34)

Quite a strong warning there. The initial alert was for a possible 3 meters tsunami. Did that happen? Here's the newsroom's Mickey Bristow.

Mickey Bristow (23:42)

A short time ago, the authorities downgraded those warnings to advisories. No longer they expecting waves of 3 meters. It's down now to about a meter. In fact, some of those waves have already hit. Having said that, evacuation orders do remain or seem to remain in place in some areas. 170,000 people have already fled their homes for centres or higher ground. And people are being told to stay away from coastal areas and river estuaries, that kind of thing. And interestingly, the authorities have said that over the next week there could be increased or further seismic activity. This earthquake, magnitude 7.7, might not be the biggest over the next few days. So the authorities are advising residents to be alert and keep supplies nearby just in case they have to evacuate at short notice.

Celia Hatton (24:33)

Mickey Bristow to Hong Kong now and the scene of the territory's deadliest fire in decades, which engulfed an apartment complex in November. 168 people were killed. For the first time since that fire, residents at the complex have been allowed to return to retrieve their belongings. Our reporter in Hong Kong, Martin Yip, has more details.

George Omuga (24:54)

This will be the first time in nearly five months that these displaced residents would have a chance to see firsthand on what has left in their homes. Speaking to Hong Kong's Government controlled broadcaster RTHK, Deputy Chief Secretary Church says some 6,000 people have registered to go in in the next two weeks. Families in groups of four at most are assigned each with a three hour time slot to pack up. Officials told them to prepare themselves both physically and mentally. Those who live in higher floors are faced with tough hikes as there are no lifts. Some might well come across the very spots where their loved ones had drawn their last breath. Some have given up to go in altogether. Pictures revealed by the government earlier suggest some units are so damaged that walls and even cellings have fallen off with virtually nothing left. A few non government organizations were offering counselling sessions or even landing out robotic Exoskeleton Lake to help pensioners who would like to walk up the stairs to go home for maybe one last time. But there are reports of some services being canceled in last minute under government orders, which the administration is yet to comment on. On the other hand, officials are denying claims that they are banning volunteers from helping out residents on sites. They have also said that some claims of ransacking were just misunderstanding. These all add to people's frustration, but officials say it is important to follow their lead.

Celia Hatton (26:37)

Martin Yip in Hong Kong. And last here in the UK, the government's domestic security agency MI5 is warning that a new technology created by the artificial intelligence giant Anthropic is very powerful and could be dangerous in the wrong hands. Claude, Mitho's preview is so good at finding weaknesses in cybersecurity systems that its American developer has decided it's too dangerous for general release. Our reporter will chalk has more.

BBC Announcer (27:07)

This is the latest iteration of the already popular chatbot Claude. Made by the AI giant Anthropic, Claude

Trace Dominguez (27:15)

is a powerful, intelligent collaborator that amplifies

Celia Hatton (27:18)

your capabilities across all of the your work.

Liz Doucet (27:20)

Claude brings AI.

BBC Announcer (27:21)

And like with most AI tools, its purpose, at least on paper, is benign. It's designed to analyze software code and find problems with it. The issue with that though is that once these problems have been identified, they can either be fixed or exploited. So releasing this software to the world could be good news for hackers. And this is where we got that chilling warning from Anthropic two weeks ago, saying they decided not to release it because the risk was too great. They claimed Methos was so good, it found vulnerabilities in every major operating system and web browser in the world, including some that have been missed by humans for 27 years. Now, this would mean transport systems, medical records, social media, chats, hospitals, schools and potentially governments could be vulnerable. But it is important to stress there are plenty of people skeptical about this, including Professor Wendy Hall, a member of the UN's High Level Advisory body on artificial intelligence.

Professor Wendy Hall (28:22)

My message is always don't panic. A lot of this is is hyper marketing from the companies that have to keep their keep the money flowing in. This tool could be very useful for people. I mean it will help and I'm sure that's part of what Anthropic want. They want people to buy this tool.

BBC Announcer (28:41)

But on the basis of this warning from MI5, it appears there is also a serious threat couched within the hype. The UK's AI security agency has had access to Methos. It's reported to the government and the government has then put out a warning to both critical national infrastructure as well as private businesses, saying you're going to need to buck up your defenses. Sana Carigani is a professor of practice in AI at King's College London.

Sana Carigani (29:07)

I think we've got a window of opportunity here, right? We've been hearing from Banks saying that they've run Mythos and found a year's worth of patches and security things that they need to update. Banks should really be taking this to the top table kind of immediately. We're at a watershed moment where we should be using this to fix our systems.

BBC Announcer (29:27)

For as long as we have been talking about AI, there have been these sci fi esque fears about it taking over or massively altering the world we live in. And wherever this story goes from here, I think it's clear there are there are plenty of people in the know who think this tech, if used irresponsibly, could make those fears a reality.

Celia Hatton (29:46)

Will chop and that's all from us for now. If you want to get in touch, you can email us@globalpodcastbc.co.uk you can also find us on X@BBC World Service. Use the hashtag Global Newspod. And don't forget our sister podcast, the Global Story, which goes into in depth and beyond the headlines on one big story. This edition of the Global News Podcast was mixed by Philip Bull. The editor is Karen Martin. I'm Celia Hatton. Until next time. Goodbye.

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