IMF downgrades global growth predictions after Trump tariffs

Summary

Global News Podcast Summary
Episode: IMF Downgrades Global Growth Predictions After Trump Tariffs
Release Date: April 23, 2025
Host: Valerie Sanderson & Simon Jack
BBC World Service

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1. Global Economic Outlook: IMF Downgrades Growth Forecast

Timestamp: 01:15 – 05:55

The episode opens with a significant update from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The IMF has downgraded its global economic growth forecasts, attributing the slowdown primarily to President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs. These tariffs and the ensuing uncertainty are predicted to decelerate the global economy, with the United States facing the most substantial impact.

Key Points:

• US Growth Projection: The IMF forecasts that US economic growth could be reduced by nearly 1 percentage point this year compared to previous estimates.
• Chief Economist’s Insight: Pierre Olivier Guernshah, the IMF's Chief Economist, highlighted the tariffs as a "supply shock that reduces productivity and output permanently and increases price pressures temporarily" (02:01).
• Recession Risk: The probability of a US recession has increased from 25% in October to approximately 40% (02:36).

Analysis by Faisal Islam: Faisal Islam, the BBC's Economics Editor, emphasizes that the IMF's forecast is a reflection of global consensus in economics and finance. He notes that the US trade war is disrupting a fragile recovery post-pandemic and ongoing conflicts. The use of tariffs has not only strained relations with trading partners but also led to tangible impacts on US markets, including increased supplier prices and disrupted supply chains.

Notable Quotes:

• Pierre Olivier Guernshah:
  "We are not seeing a recession in our reference forecast. We are seeing the probability of a recession increasing from about 25% back in October to around 40% when we assess it." (02:36)

• Faisal Islam:
  "The US has launched a trade war that wrecks an ongoing recovery from four years of pandemic and war, and one that will damage the US itself the most." (03:09)

US Market Reactions: Following Trump's announcement of progress towards a trade deal with China, US stocks rebounded slightly. President Trump expressed optimism, stating, "We're going to be very nice. They're going to be very nice and we'll see what happens. But ultimately they have to make a deal because otherwise they're not going to be able to deal in the United States." (04:41). Public opinion in regions like rural Arizona remains divided, with some residents supporting the tariffs despite the economic uncertainty they bring.

Quotes from Residents:

• Zing Singh (Arizona Resident):
  "I feel really confident that our president right now is going in the right direction. And I back him 100%." (05:37)

• Faisal Islam:
  "I think everyone should be worried right now." (05:25)

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2. Violent Attack in Kashmir Claims Over 20 Lives

Timestamp: 05:55 – 09:29

A tragic incident unfolded in Pampagam, a renowned tourist destination in Indian-administered Kashmir. Gunmen attacked a group of tourists, resulting in the death of more than 20 individuals and injuring dozens more.

Key Points:

• Attack Details: Multiple gunmen targeted hikers on Tuesday afternoon, creating panic and chaos in a usually peaceful area (06:20).
• Government Response: Indian Prime Minister condemned the attack, promising justice, while Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah led a high-level security meeting and reviewed the situation on the ground (07:21).
• Historical Context: Kashmir has been a conflict zone for over three and a half decades, but such large-scale attacks on tourists are unprecedented, sending shockwaves throughout India (07:27).

Notable Quotes:

• Prime Minister of India:
  "Those behind this heinous attack will be brought to justice." (07:27)

• Yoga Tillamai (South Asia Correspondent):
  "This is an extremely unusual attack because rarely in those three and a half decades have tourists been attacked on this kind of scale." (07:21)

Security and Autonomy Issues: The region, heavily militarized and disputed between Pakistan and India, saw its special status revoked in 2019 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government. While the government claims increased safety, local reports suggest a decline in democratic rights and questions about the efficacy of the heavy military presence (08:40).

Impact on Tourism and Safety: The attack has raised serious concerns about the safety claims made by the Modi administration. With Kashmir being a peak tourist season, the incident is likely to deter future visitors and exacerbate tensions in an already volatile region (08:36).

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3. US Universities Clash with Trump Administration Over Funding

Timestamp: 09:29 – 11:28

A coalition of over 170 US universities has united to oppose the Trump administration's demands for higher education institutions. These demands include intrusive controls over hiring, admissions, and transparency regarding foreign student information.

Key Points:

• Harvard's Lawsuit: Harvard University has filed a lawsuit against the White House after refusing to comply with the administration's conditions attached to freezing $2.2 billion in federal grants (09:29).
• Accusations of Overreach: Universities argue that the Trump administration's actions constitute unprecedented government overreach, targeting what they describe as "left-wing activism and anti-Semitism on campuses" (10:06).
• Impact on Research: The potential freezing of funds threatens critical research endeavors, including cancer research, raising alarms within the academic community (10:48).

Notable Quotes:

• Harvard President, Adam Garber:
  "The Trump administration was essentially looking for an excuse to control Harvard." (10:48)

• Valerie Sanderson:
  "The government's attempt to just cut off funding violated the statute in the most blatant way." (10:48)

Broader Implications: Harvard's legal battle could set a precedent, potentially escalating to the Supreme Court. Other institutions like Columbia University have already acquiesced to the administration's demands to restore funding, highlighting a divide within the academic sector (11:28).

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4. Death of Pope Francis and the Selection of His Successor

Timestamp: 11:28 – 17:54

The global Catholic community mourns the passing of Pope Francis. The Vatican has announced funeral arrangements and the process for selecting the next Pope, a decision that will significantly influence the direction of the Roman Catholic Church.

Key Points:

• Funeral Arrangements: Pope Francis' funeral will take place in St. Peter's Square, attended by world leaders and millions of faithful. His body will be moved to St. Peter's Basilica for public viewings (11:28).
• Selection Process: The conclave to elect the new Pope will involve a diverse group of cardinals, with no clear favorite emerging. Ali McBoul, Religion Editor, discusses potential candidates and the unpredictability of the process (12:59 – 16:00).
• Camerlengo's Role: Cardinal Kevin Farrell, appointed as Camerlengo, oversees the Pope's funeral and the conclave. His deep involvement and close relationship with Pope Francis highlight the importance of his role (14:38 – 16:57).

Notable Quotes:

• Father Gabriel Romanelli (Priest from Gaza):
  "The Pope called for more than one year and a half every day... to give hope." (01:15)

• Ali McBoul:
  "The choice of who succeeds Pope Francis is of course, one that could have a profound impact on the future direction of the Roman Catholic Church." (12:59)

• Cardinal Kevin Farrell:
  "I have to oversee the election process by which the next pope is chosen. You know how it works if you've watched the 2024 Oscar-winning film Conclave." (16:50)

Personal Reflections: Cardinal Farrell shares his personal journey and the influence of Pope Francis on his life and responsibilities, emphasizing the Pope's gentle persuasion and the heavy burden of his current duties (15:35 – 16:57).

Future Prospects: The conclave's outcome remains uncertain, with discussions hinting at potential shifts in church policies and global Catholicism's future.

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5. Myanmar's Civil War Amid Massive Earthquake

Timestamp: 18:42 – 22:56

Myanmar is grappling with both a long-standing civil war and the aftermath of a devastating earthquake that claimed 3,700 lives and left tens of thousands homeless. The military junta is accused of exploiting the crisis to consolidate power.

Key Points:

• Ceasefire Violations: Despite a declared ceasefire to facilitate humanitarian aid, reports indicate ongoing violence, with over 160 airstrikes and 160+ civilian deaths since the ceasefire announcement (19:26).
• Aid Access Issues: The military is restricting aid distribution, preventing international organizations from delivering necessary assistance to opposition-controlled areas (20:05).
• Political Manipulation: The junta is using the disaster to legitimize its rule and normalize human rights abuses, undermining efforts by groups like ASEAN to mediate (21:28 – 21:55).

Notable Quotes:

• Pierre Olivier Guernshah:
  "They are using that aid as weapons, weaponizing it." (20:45)

• Pierre Olivier Guernshah:
  "They are politicizing it... to legitimize, to normalize their act of crimes against humanity." (21:55)

Expert Commentary: Dr. Sassa, representing the exiled National Unity Government, criticizes the military's actions, highlighting the failure to implement a genuine ceasefire and the obstruction of humanitarian efforts (19:26 – 22:56).

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6. China's Cosmetic Surgery Boom and Its Consequences

Timestamp: 22:56 – 27:02

China's cosmetic surgery industry has seen exponential growth, driven by social media and beauty standards. However, this surge has led to a shortage of qualified practitioners and an increase in botched surgeries and financial distress among young women.

Key Points:

• Industry Growth: The cosmetic surgery market in China is projected to surpass $55 billion, with millions opting for procedures annually (22:56).
• Personal Stories: Abbey Wu shares her extensive experiences with cosmetic surgeries, highlighting the personal and financial pressures driving this trend (23:26 – 27:02).
• Regulatory Challenges: Investigations reveal that some surgeons, like Dr. He Ming, are operating without proper licenses, leading to a high incidence of botched surgeries and exploitation through "beauty loans" (23:26 – 27:02).

Notable Quotes:

• Abbey Wu:
  "I don't think I'll ever stop trying to be more beautiful." (23:26)

• Xiaomu (Victim):
  "I can make the money back with a few commissions. At that moment, you really didn't know how to refuse." (26:40)

Investigative Findings: The investigation uncovered a systemic problem where cosmetic surgeons bypass regulations, contributing to the high rates of malpractice and financial debt among patients. Efforts by authorities to regulate the industry have been met with limited response, as highlighted by the lack of accountability from clinics and the Chinese government (27:02).

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7. Thailand's Legal Battle: Prosecutors Convicted in High-Profile Case

Timestamp: 27:02 – 28:39

In a landmark ruling, two former prosecutors in Thailand have been convicted for aiding War Ut Yuritiya, the heir to the Red Bull empire, in evading trial for a 2012 incident where he killed a police officer.

Key Points:

• Case Details: War Ut Yuritiya is accused of driving drunk in a Ferrari, resulting in the death of a policeman. Despite the gravity of the crime, the prosecution faced manipulation, including altering speed data to minimize charges (27:02 – 28:39).
• Public Outcry: The conviction of the prosecutors has ignited public anger, reinforcing perceptions that wealthy individuals can bypass the law in Thailand.
• Court Response: The convicted prosecutors have vowed to appeal the decision, maintaining their stance despite the backlash (27:37 – 28:39).

Notable Quotes:

• Zing Singh:
  "They vowed to appeal the court's ruling. Mr. Worryout has been spotted at luxury events around the world... stoking the widespread belief in Thailand that wealthy people can avoid justice." (27:37)

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8. Reflections on Pope Francis' Final Days and Legacy

Timestamp: 28:39 – 32:01

Further insights are shared regarding Pope Francis' final actions and his enduring legacy, especially his connection with marginalized communities such as those in Gaza.

Key Points:

• Pope's Last Messages: Father Gabriel Romanelli recounts Pope Francis' daily communications, offering hope and prayers amidst bombings (29:12 – 30:37).
• Personal Impact: The Pope's interactions provided significant emotional and spiritual support to the congregation, fostering a sense of mercy and encouragement (30:52 – 31:29).
• Language and Diversity: Pope Francis communicated in multiple languages, including Arabic, to reach out to diverse communities, exemplifying his inclusive approach (31:29 – 32:01).

Notable Quotes:

• Father Gabriel Romanelli:
  "As a pastor here, to feel the closeness to the Pope himself... was a very clear and very strong sign of the mercy of the Lord." (30:52)

• Father Gabriel Romanelli:
  "He pronounced some greetings in Arabic. Salaam alaikum, Alam. So God bless you. How are you? Thank you. Shukran." (31:41)

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Conclusion and Upcoming Content

The episode concludes with a teaser for an upcoming special edition focused on the conclave to elect the new Pope, inviting listeners to submit their questions and engage with the BBC's Global News Podcast.

Closing Remarks:

• Valerie Sanderson & Simon Jack:
  "We're planning a special conclave edition answering your questions around how the new Pope is chosen." (17:16)

Listeners are encouraged to engage via email or social media to participate in the discussion surrounding the future of the Roman Catholic Church.

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End of Summary

Transcript

[Valerie Sanderson]

This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk.

[Zing Singh]

I'm Zing Singh. And I'm Simon Jack. And together we host Good Bad Billionaire.

[Simon Jack]

The podcast exploring the lives of some.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Of the world's richest people.

[Zing Singh]

In the new season, we're setting our sights on some big names. Yep, LeBron James and Martha Stewart, to name just a few. And as always, Simon and I are trying to decide whether we think they're good, bad or just another billionaire that's good. Bad Billionaire from the BBC World Service. Listen now wherever you get your BBC podcasts.

[Simon Jack]

This is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Valerie Sanderson and in the early hours of Wednesday, 23rd April, these are our main stories. The International Monetary Fund downgrades global economic growth forecasts and warns that the risk of a recession in the US has significantly increased. In Kashmir, more than 20 people have been killed after gunmen opened fire on tourists. Also in this podcast, how the next Pope is chosen and the priest from the only Catholic church in the Gaza Strip remembers the late Pope Francis.

[Father Gabriel Romanelli]

The Pope called for more than one year and a half every day with a small message or sometimes under the bombing to give the hope.

[Simon Jack]

We start with the forecast from the International Monetary Fund, the World Economic Outlook. The IMF has downgraded its forecast for global growth, predicting that Donald Trump's tariffs and the uncertainty they've caused will lead to a significant slowdown. The IMF said growth in the US the world's biggest economy, could be almost a full percentage point lower this year than previously predicted. Pierre Olivier Guernshah, the IMF's chief economist, said the US could be the hardest.

[Pierre Olivier Guernshah]

Hit for the United States. The tariffs represent a supply shock that reduces productivity and output permanently and increases price pressures temporarily. This adds to an already weakening outlook and leads us to revise growth down by 0.9 percentage point to 1.8%, with a 0.4 percentage point downgrade from the tariffs only while inflation is revised upwards.

[Simon Jack]

He said the prospect of the US Economy going into recession has significantly increased.

[Pierre Olivier Guernshah]

We were seeing already consumption numbers coming down. We're seeing consumer confidence coming down. So all of that was already factored in. But we are not seeing a recession in our reference forecast. We are seeing the probability of a recession increasing from about 25% back in October to around 40% when we assess it.

[Simon Jack]

Now with his assessment from the IMF's meeting in Washington, D.C. here's our economics editor, Faisal Islam.

[Faisal Islam]

The forecast from the IMF is unusually important, not because of the Numbers. But because of the underlying message, it projects consensus thinking in global economics and finance that the US has launched a trade war that wrecks an ongoing recovery from four years of pandemic and war, and one that will damage the US itself the most. This will form the basis of some difficult discussions now in the round among the G7 advanced nations and the wider grouping of the G20, which includes China. Until now, the US has used tariffs to try to pick off trade concessions with partners individually. But some considerable pushback is likely. Here in Washington. Pleasantries may be dispensed with. Underlying all this may be a perception that, contrary to the White House view, the US now needs to show febrile markets that deals are being done. Main street is now starting to see the first impacts of supplier price increases and pauses of cargoes. The the return of US passenger jets from China to Boeing. Even, even allies are decrying the limited negotiations so far, claiming privately they do not really know what the US wants. And then in the background of these meetings are much bigger realignments of the global economic system. Is the dollar being displaced, at least partly as the globe's reserve currency? Is this in fact part of the US plan in order to weaken its own currency? Could the US engagement with the IMF and its sister organization, the World bank, part of the post war furniture of global finance, now be up for grabs?

[Simon Jack]

Faisal Islam. US stocks have recovered some of their recent losses following White House assertions that it's making good progress on reaching a trade deal with China. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, President Trump said he was optimistic. We're going to be very nice. They're going to be very nice and we'll see what happens. But ultimately they have to make a deal because otherwise they're not going to be able to deal in the United States. And we want them involved, but they have to, and other countries have to make a deal. And if they don't make a deal, we'll set the deal. The US public appears divided on the tariffs. These people in rural Arizona, Trump's heartland, had mixed views on the benefits of, of President Trump's policy.

[Faisal Islam]

I think everyone should be worried right now.

[Simon Jack]

You know, there's a lot of uncertainty.

[Faisal Islam]

When there's a lot of uncertainty, it.

[Zing Singh]

Creates panic in the market, other countries taxing us and putting high tariffs on.

[Simon Jack]

Our goods that we don't even know about.

[Zing Singh]

And I think the fact that now it's coming to light, I feel really confident that our president right now is going in the right direction. And I back him 100%.

[Simon Jack]

We got to take a little bit of a hit to be able to get to the other side. If it hurts, it hurts a little.

[Zing Singh]

Bit, but it's going to hurt a.

[Simon Jack]

Lot more later if we don't. Some views from Arizona in the United States, the resort of Pal Gam in Indian Administered Kashmir is normally known as a tranquil and remote beauty spot. But it's become the scene of a violent tragedy. More than 20 tourists who were hiking there have been shot dead by gunmen. I heard more from our South Asia correspondent, Yoga Tillamai, who's in Delhi.

[Yoga Tillamai]

Well, what we're being told by sources in the police department is that there were multiple gunmen who came out and started shooting at a group of tourists who were visiting the Pehalgam area. This happened on Tuesday afternoon. As far as we know. We're still to get exact details of how many attackers were there and indeed how many have been killed and injured. But locals say that dozens of people have been rushed to nearby hospitals with gunshot wounds. There are videos on social media of people pleading for help. You can see what look like people who were either injured or killed in the attack lying on the ground behind them in those videos. To give you context, Pehalgam is one of the most popular tourist spots in Indian Administered Kashmir. It's known for its rolling meadows, for its lush green valleys. This is peak tourist, peak domestic tourist season in India because it's school holidays for most people in India. And so there would have been lots and lots of people in the whole of Kashmir, but also lots of people visiting Pehalgam.

[Simon Jack]

Has anything emerged about who carried out the attack or where they came from? Did they come from India?

[Yoga Tillamai]

It's unclear at the moment. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. We know that the area has been cordoned off and that a search has been launched for these attackers. We have had word from the Prime Minister who's condemned what he refers to as the terror attack in Pehalgam. He said those behind this heinous attack will be brought to justice. The Home Affairs Minister, Amit Shah has chaired a high level security meeting in Delhi and he's now gone to Kashmir to review the security situation on the ground. This region, of course, no stranger to conflict, it's faced an armed insurgency for more than three and a half decades now in which tens of thousands of civilians and security forces have been killed. However, even with against that backdrop, this is an extremely unusual attack because rarely in those three and a half decades have tourists been attacked on this kind of scale. And so it's something that sent shock waves through Kashmir, but through the whole of India. In fact, we've had the chief minister of the region, Omar Abdullah, also saying that he's really shocked by this attack because it's the largest attack that they've seen which is directed at civilians in this manner.

[Simon Jack]

And there had been increased security in the area, hadn't there?

[Yoga Tillamai]

Well, it's one of the most militarized areas in the world. It's a conflict zone. It's a region that is disputed between Pakistan and India and as I said, has faced three and a half decades of an insurgency. So there's always been a lot of military presence, a lot of troop presence. In 2019, the region was stripped of its special status, the relative autonomy that it enjoyed by the government run by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. That was a very contentious move. The government claimed that it made the region safer. People on the ground who we've spoken to have repeatedly over the years told us that it's come at the cost of democratic rights. What will happen after this attack is that there will be serious questions raised about the government's claims that Kashmir has become safer.

[Simon Jack]

Yogurt LEMAI More than 170 universities have banded together in the US to oppose the Trump administration's demands on higher education institutions, saying political interference is a danger. It comes as Harvard filed a lawsuit against President Trump's government after it froze federal grants worth billions of dollars. When the school rejected a list of propos, they were said to include giving up control over hiring and admissions and providing information about foreign students, which Harvard called breathtakingly intrusive. Our North America correspondent, Noma Iqbal has sent us this report.

[Valerie Sanderson]

In the letter, the universities accused the White House of unprecedented government overreach as President Trump targets what he describes as left wing activism and anti Semitism on campuses. The institutions, including Ivy League schools such as Princeton and Brown, say they must reject what they call the co coercive use of public research funding. Yesterday, Harvard sued the White House after the Trump administration announced it would freeze $2.2 billion in funding because the university was refusing to accept demands to curb diversity initiatives. Its president, Adam Garber, said the Trump administration was essentially looking for an excuse to control Harvard, a view echoed by one of his predecessors, Larry Summers.

[Simon Jack]

The government's attempt to just cut off funding violated the statute in the most blatant way. It's just a power statement that funding on which scientists have relied to do their research on cancer and the like is going to be summarily cut off.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Harvard's lawsuit could take years to play out and end up at the Supreme Court. The Trump administration has already rolled back diversity, equity and inclusion programs, arrested international students and revoked their visas at universities. Last month, another Ivy League university, Columbia, complied with demands in order to restore its federal funding.

[Simon Jack]

Nomir Iqbal More details have emerged of the final moments of the life of Pope Francis, the Vatican said. Among his last words was a thank you to his nurse for encouraging him to greet easter worshippers in St Peter's Square on Sunday. The pontiff became unwell just a couple of hours before his death, with the Vatican saying the end was quick and he didn't suffer. His funeral will be held in the square on Saturday and will be attended by dozens of world leaders and tens of thousands of Roman Catholics. On Wednesday morning, his body will be moved to St. Peter's Basilica to allow the faithful to pay their respects for three days. Miriam Mishiri is there behind me in the square. There are three or four giant screens. They have a black background and on them there's written that the basilica will be open from 11 on Wednesday morning. Now it will be open until midnight. It reopens again 7am on Thursday morning. It's going to be extremely busy. Already we're seeing tens of thousands of people filing through the square to pay their respects. Organizers are expecting there to be huge queues here over the next few days as people try to catch a glimpse of the Pope as he rests in state. Cardinals who met at the Vatican on Tuesday to plan Pope Francis funeral will also choose his successor next month. The process may be long and drawn out. There are more cardinals than ever before from more countries, and there's no clear favourite for the role. Our religion editor Ali McBoul has the details.

[Ali McBoul]

The choice of who succeeds Pope Francis is of course, one that could have a profound impact on the future direction of the Roman Catholic Church, affecting an estimated 1.4 billion followers of the faith. But this conclave promises to be a highly unpredictable and open process. That's because around 80% of the cardinals who can take part in the voting process were appointed by Pope Francis himself during his 12 year papacy. Given they're based all over the world, for the first time ever fewer than half coming from Europe and given many are relatively new to their roles, some don't know each other well at all, making it hard to work out who they'll coalesce around. That said, some are being talked about as front runners. Cardinal Pietro Parolin was essentially the right hand man to Pope Francis. He's an Italian and and 213 of the 266 popes there have already been come from Italy. But he is seen in many ways as a pragmatist and diplomat. Unlike him though, Cardinal Luis Tagle from the Philippines has decades of being more of a pastoral figure in social outlook. Someone described to have a position close to that of Pope Francis. And then there's Cardinal Peter Turksen from Ghana, a former funk band guitarist and hugely influential conservative across Africa and beyond. In this contest though, even more than any other, be prepared for a complete outsider to come out on top. And have no doubt that while the conclave isn't officially convened for a couple of weeks, conversations between cardinals over Rome dinners at least about the type of person needed have already begun.

[Simon Jack]

Ali McBoul One man, Cardinal Kevin Farrell now carries the heavy responsibility of overseeing the Pope's funeral and managing the conclave that will elect his successor. The Irish American cardinal is known as the Camerlengo or chamberlain. And the world first got a glimpse of him when on Monday he announced the death of Pope Francis. Ella Bicknell reports. Alejore sette trente cinque de cuesta martina.

[Valerie Sanderson]

The world watched as he delivered the news, one of the many responsibilities now facing the 77 year old Cardinal and close confidant of Pope Francis. Born In Dublin in 1947, Kevin Farrell studied theology in Spain and Rome. After ordination he served as chaplain at the University of Monterrey in Mexico before moving to the United States, later being appointed Bishop of Dallas. In 2016, he was called to Rome, a personal appointment by Pope Francis.

[Ali McBoul]

I got a telephone call from the Pope himself and he told me what he was thinking and I told him.

[Simon Jack]

That, you know, I would do whatever.

[Ali McBoul]

He wanted but he should really think this out again. I mean, I'm too old for that kind of a job and he convinced me that I needed to do this. He has a very kind, gentle way of twisting your arm.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Three years later, he was elevated to the role of Kamalengo. Four years after that he became President of the Supreme Court of Vatican City State. As Karmalengo, Cardinal Farrel is responsible for overseeing the period of mourning. He certified the Pope's death on Easter Monday. Before sealing Pope Francis residence in the Vatican's St. Martha Guest House, he destroyed the Pope's ring and lead seal to ensure no one else can issue documents in his name. He helped lay the Pontiff's body in his coffin and will lead the procession to St. Peter's Square on Once morning is over, he will oversee the election process by which the next pope is chosen. You know how it works if you've watched the 2024 Oscar winning film Conclave.

[Simon Jack]

Why did the Holy Father, in his.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Last official act as pope, choose me.

[Simon Jack]

To run this conclave?

[Valerie Sanderson]

Farrell's role was portrayed fictionally by Ralph fiennes, coordinating all 135 eligible cardinals to vote in secret inside the historic Sistine Chapel. And if you're wondering, could the camerlengo become pope himself? Technically, yes, but it's only happened twice in the history of the papacy.

[Simon Jack]

Ella Bicknell. And if you have any questions around how the new pope is chosen, we're planning a special conclave edition. We'll examine the process, the timetable, who looks likely to succeed Pope Francis, and what changes might be in store for the Roman Catholic Church. Send us a voicemail or an email to globalpodcastbc.co.uk and you can also find us on X@BBC World Service. Use the hashtag globalnewspod. Still to come, I have had six.

[Abbey Wu]

Nose jobs, four fat grafts, two liposuctions and three double eyelid surgeries.

[Simon Jack]

We hear how China's cosmetic surgery industry has exploded.

[Zing Singh]

I'm Zing Sing. And I'm Simon Jack. And together we host Good Bad Billionaire, the podcast exploring the lives of some.

[Simon Jack]

Of the world's richest people.

[Zing Singh]

In the new season, we're setting our sights on some big names. Yep, LeBron James and Martha Stewart, to name just a few. And as always, Simon and I are trying to decide whether we think they're good, bad or just another billionaire that's Good Bad Billionaire from the BBC World Service. Listen now, wherever you get your BBC podcasts.

[Simon Jack]

Forces fighting the military junta in Myanmar's civil war have accused the generals of using the crisis caused by the recent massive earthquake to strengthen their grip on the country. The earthquakes led to the deaths of 3,700 people and tens of thousands were made homeless on Tuesday. The ceasefire declared after the earthquake to allow humanitarian aid was extended by the military just before it was due to expire. But there have been widespread reports of continuing violence. The BBC's Paul Henley spoke to Dr. Sassa, as he calls himself, a representative of the exiled national unity government from Myanmar, formerly known as Burma. So does he think the military government will respect its own ceasefire?

[Pierre Olivier Guernshah]

We are facing, Paul, the military that announced ceasefire, but violates ceasefire. The day that they announced, the minute that they announced, the second that they announced ceasefire, they start bombing the villagers, people, civilians. Now, since the day that they Announced ceasefire, right? We have, we have recorded at least 126th time of airstrike against the people of Burma. 160 plus people, civilians have been killed, including the pastors, women and children. Even today as we speak Istanba, they bomb at least three places in Burma.

[Valerie Sanderson]

What effect is that having on the efforts to help people affected by the earthquake?

[Pierre Olivier Guernshah]

What we have seen is the military are stopping the AIDS to go to the people most in need. And they are not allowing, if the money or the AIDS come true to Yangon or Naypyidaw and then they will not allow that to go to energy control or opposition control area. And that's why we are saying it has to be border across aid as well. Not just only the aid coming through international airport or seaport, it has to be to balancing through border cross assistance.

[Valerie Sanderson]

And is aid reaching the people who need it, including through you, through the national unity government.

[Pierre Olivier Guernshah]

Not in the way that it needed. It's coming through a very, very small amount. Basically, most of the AIDS that is coming to opposition control area are peoples to people support, not international big donor organizations. Of course, these are under the permissions of the military. So when all those aid come true under the military framework, they are using that AIDS as weapons, weaponizing it. So the aid that is coming true to us is very, very minimum.

[Valerie Sanderson]

You met last week with the chair of the ASEAN bloc, the association of Southeast Asian Nations. Can they mediate? Do you have faith in their ability to do that?

[Pierre Olivier Guernshah]

Asean, they have got opportunity to make this senseless killing of the people of asean. And you know, this is something that they can do it, but they are not able to do it. Yes, the meeting was positive notes. But again, our belief is that this ceasefire, this must be extant, this must be implemented, right? There has to be some kind, some level of monetary mechanism of the ceasefire.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Do you think that the crisis that followed the earthquake has actually helped the military junta?

[Pierre Olivier Guernshah]

That is what we are seeing is that they are politicizing it. That means that they are making the most of it. Before the earthquake happened, they cannot meet with ASEAN chair right after the earthquake happened, they are able to meet it and they are able to meet with other international aid organizations. And then they are using it to legitimize, to normalize their act of crimes against humanity. And they are trying to normalize human rights abuses. That is our main worry. And the red line is that we are suffering two crisis. One is a man made crisis and it's a nature crisis. And now this nature crisis is now become again so this should not be allowed by the military to use as weapons against its own people and get legitimacy through these operations that they are talking to international actors.

[Simon Jack]

Dr. Sassa of the exiled Unity government for Myanmar. In the last decade, China's cosmetic surgery industry has exploded, fueled by new social media and beauty platforms. Every year, millions are opting for cosmetic procedures. The market is expected to surpass US$55 billion. But the surge in demand has led to a shortage of qualified practitioners and licensed clinics. As BBCI's Natalia Zhu uncovers, Abbey Wu.

[Abbey Wu]

Has become a poster girl for China's cosmetic surgery boom. On her social media, she talks openly about the surgery she's had and how much it all costs her. More than half a million US dollars so far. The number is still going up and up. I don't think I'll ever stop trying to be more beautiful. Her mother took her for her first procedure when she was just 14 years old. In the past 20 years or so, I've had probably over 100 procedures. I have had six nose jobs, four fat grafts, two liposuctions and three double eyelid surgeries. In the last decade, China's plastic surgery industry has exploded, fueled by new social media and beauty platforms. But the surge in demand has led to a shortage of qualified practitioners and licensed clinics. In one high profile case, actress Gao Liu says she nearly lost her nose after cosmetic surgery went wrong. I was so scared, I broke down. It ruined my career as an actor, as someone who really cares about appearance. I thought my entire life was ruined. When she shared her story on social media, it went viral. Within weeks, the regional health body announced they were sanctioning those responsible. But I've been investigating the surgeon who did that operation, Dr. He Ming, and discovered that he only became a licensed plastic surgeon a few years after operating on Galiu. And that license should not have been granted to him because he was sanctioned at the time. To find out whether he has been presenting himself as a properly qualified plastic surgeon, we go undercover. Dr. Herman confirmed that he has been doing nose surgeries for over 10 years. One of his staff told us that he's been called the region's nose king. According to an industry report, about 40,000 cases of botched surgeries and treatments happen every year. Our investigation has found that now young women are undergoing costly procedures and trapped into debt. We've spoken to dozens of young women across China who share similar experiences of being scammed or pressured into so called beauty loans. Xiaomu was just 18 years old when her employer pressured her to take out a high interest loan to pay for a cosmetic procedure, she told me. I can make the money back with a few commissions. At that moment, you really didn't know how to refuse. Seven years on, she's still in debt despite working multiple jobs to pay it off. Authorities in China are trying to regulate the industry. We put our allegations to Dr. He Ming Qingya Clinic and the Guangdong Provincial Health Commission. They did not respond. The Chinese Embassy in the UK told us the Chinese government consistently requires enterprises to operate in strict compliance with national laws, regulations and relevant policy provisions.

[Simon Jack]

And you can hear the full investigation. Make Me Perfect on BBC Sounds or wherever you get your podcasts. Just search for BBC the documentary Two former prosecutors in Thailand have been found guilty of helping the heir to the Red Bull energy drink empire avoid standing trial on allegations that he ran over and killed a police officer 13 years ago. These are the first convictions related to the case, which has sparked fury in the country because of perceptions that rich people are able to skirt the law. Our Asia Pacific regional editor Celia Hatton reports.

[Zing Singh]

In a killing that dates back to 2012, War ut Yuritiya is accused of driving at high speed in his black Ferrari while drunk and slamming into a policeman dragging his body for 100 meters. The officer later died in hospital. The heir to the Red Bull drink fortune now lives in exile and has ignored multiple court summons to return. And in a twist that has infuriated many in Thailand, many of the charges against him have expired. But the case lives on. A Bangkok court has found the prosecutors, one of them a former deputy attorney general, had minimized the charges against Worryut Yuvitaba, in part by altering the speed at which his car had been driving. They vowed to appeal the court's ruling. Mr. Worryout has been spotted at luxury events around the world in recent years, stoking the widespread belief in Thailand that wealthy people can avoid justice.

[Simon Jack]

Celia Hatton let's return to the reaction following the death of Pope Francis. In previous podcasts, we reported that the Pope, in his final speech, his Easter message read out on Sunday, asked for an immediate seal and the release of all remaining hostages. It was also widely reported that he was in constant contact with a group of Palestinian Christians in the Gaza Strip at the Latin Rite Church of the Holy Family in Gaza. The priest there is Father Gabriel Romanelli. He spoke to the BBC's Rebecca the.

[Father Gabriel Romanelli]

Pope call for more than one year and a half every day. Sometimes, especially in the last months, he can't call us, but all the time with contact us with a small message or Sometimes under the bombing, to give a hope, to ask about us, about the situation, to offer the prayer for all Catholic, Orthodox, even our neighbors Muslims, because all feel like the Pope Francis as their father. In the same time, we hope that the wall will receive the last appeal for peace from the Pope Francis.

[Abbey Wu]

When was the last time you spoke to him?

[Father Gabriel Romanelli]

It is Saturday, before the vigil, the Holy Mass. He called us and gave the blessing. He taught us thanks for our prayers for him. When he called us on Saturday, we are in the church. So many children's, teenagers, families were gathering around me and Father Youssef and the sisters. And so they hear the voice of the. The Pope, very simple message. This was the last time, so two days ago.

[Abbey Wu]

And what did his regular phone calls and messages mean for you? The leader of your congregation living under awful circumstances, how did it help you in. In your leadership and role there?

[Father Gabriel Romanelli]

Yes, because it's not easy live here. So as a pastor here, to feel the closeness to the Pope himself and to say him thanks, Father, thanks for all the work you have for the poor. We help thousands and thousands of families here, the poor families. So for us was a very clear and very strong sign of the mercy of the Lord and the encouragement to serve the Lord in his church.

[Abbey Wu]

And there are clips of him speaking to you. I think it may have been from hospital. When he was there, he was speaking some Arabic as well. Was that something that he used to do?

[Father Gabriel Romanelli]

Yes, he pronounced some greetings in Arabic. Salaam alaikum, Alam. So God bless you. How are you? Thank you. Shukran. So it's very kind from His Holiness, Father Gabriel Romanelli.

[Simon Jack]

And that's it from us for now. But there will be a new edition of the Global News podcast later and we're planning a special conclave edition answering your questions around how the new Pope is chosen. We'll examine the process, the timetable, who looks likely to succeed Pope Francis and what changes might be in store for the Catholic Church. Send us a voicemail or an email to globalpodcastbc.co.uk. you can also find us on XBCWorldService. Use the hashtag Global Newspot. This edition was mixed by Caroline Driscoll. The producer was Marion Strawn. The editor is Karen Martin. I'm Valerie Sanderson. Until next time.

[Abbey Wu]

Bye.

[Simon Jack]

Bye.

[Zing Singh]

I'm Zing Singh. And I'm Simon Jack. And together we host Good Bad Billionaire.

[Simon Jack]

The podcast exploring the lives of some of the world's richest people.

[Zing Singh]

In the new season, we're setting our sights on some big names. Yep. LeBron James and Martha Stewart, to name just a few. And as always, Simon and I are trying to decide whether we think they're good, bad, or just another billionaire. That's good. Bad billionaire from the BBC World Service. Listen now, wherever you get your BBC podcasts.