Matthew Amrolliwola (3:08)

Caroline, is this the biggest threat to the Islamic Republic since its inception?

Caroline Hawley (3:14)

It's certainly a huge threat. And they have responded in kind. They've clearly felt that they are fighting for their life. They, as you know, have blamed this on. On rioters inspired by Donald Trump and Israel. But we've had many cycles of unrest before and uprisings. There was 2009 over disputed elections, 2019 over fuel prices, 2022, of course, over women's rights, and after the death in custody of a young woman, Mahsa Amini, who was accused of not wearing her hijab properly. And then These began on December 28th as an economic protest. But it very, very quickly spiraled into people expressing their anger over everything that they hate about the Islamic Republic and their economic, political, social problems. And I think what is different this time is that the Iranian regime is under pressure from inside and out. It has been weakened by the war in June when Israel attacked with the US the nuclear facilities. So it is a moment of great peril for the Islamic regime, or has been. And they have been using what I've been told is really unprecedented force to try to control the streets. So it has come at a huge cost to Iranians. We don't know, as Cvash said, the full picture, because we're only getting little pieces of the jigsaw.

Matthew Amrolliwola (4:45)

Yes.

Caroline Hawley (4:45)

The Iranian regime is trying to kind of control the narrative now, putting out pictures of its own supporters on the streets. But we. We just don't know the full picture. And I think a lot is yet to emerge about what's been happening over the past few days.

Matthew Amrolliwola (5:00)

Paul, to you in Washington. A number of questions about whether Donald Trump will intervene, giving some of the recent warnings he's given to the regime. What is Donald Trump saying?

Paul Adams (5:11)

Yeah, Matthew, before the latest reports of mass casualties emerged, he did indeed warn that there could be an American response and that it would be dependent on how the Iranian authorities responded. He also has spoken about his desire to rescue the protesters, as he's put it now. He flew back to Washington from Florida yesterday, and aboard Air Force One, he said that he was looking at what he described as some very strong options, presumably military options. He is going to. He's expected to receive a briefing on those options tomorrow at the White House. But he also said that the Iranian regime had on Saturday reached out to. To Washington to try and negotiate. He didn't again, didn't say exactly what about, and he said the two sides were working on arranging a meeting. But he also said, and I'm quoting here, but we may have to act because of what's happening before that meeting. So clearly a strong warning that America might be poised to take action fairly soon.

Matthew Amrolliwola (6:17)

I'll come back to that point. But C. Vash, Caroline was touching on it. This was sparked by inflation and economics at the end of December. It is now morphed into something entirely different, with so many of the protesters on the street calling for the end of the regime. But tell me more about how the regime itself is portraying it. What is appearing on state television, for example.

Sivash Ardalan (6:40)

Well, on the first day of the protests, you had the government saying that they recognize these protests because it was a strike by shopkeepers that come out in the streets protesting against inflation and the way the currency market works, which is really to their detriment. And then, as the pattern usually is, it morphed into something bigger than the other people joined the protests, and it became against the entire system. The government's narrative so far has been, we recognize the protests. We'll sit down and talk with those genuine protesters. But very soon separated the protesters from what it called the rioters. And then when the crackdown turned very violent and the protests turned very massive, the rioters became armed terrorists trained by the Mossad and by the CIA to sow discord inside the country. And now with these high numbers of deaths that have emerged ever since this crackdown, what the government is saying, that most of these people who have been killed are the security forces and innocent private citizens killed by the protesters, which the government calls terrorists.

Matthew Amrolliwola (7:44)

Caroline, let's go back to something you were mentioning a little earlier, because the Internet blackout is making it very difficult to actually find out the facts of what is happening on the ground. But it has a wider impact, too, from all of those desperately around the world trying to find out about loved ones who are living in Iran.

Caroline Hawley (8:03)

That's right. It's not just the Internet blackout is also the international phone lines have been cut. So imagine how terrifying that is for people who have been unable to get hold of relatives back home wanting to know what's happening to them. Obviously, the Internet blackout is designed as well to. To keep Iranians from talking to each other so that it makes it harder for them to organize. But yet we are still getting voices out, although just one little anecdote. On Thursday night, I was trying to speak to a woman who I've been speaking to over an encrypted app since 2022 and the WomenLife freedom protests. And she just said, I'm been out on the street for an hour, the crowds are unbelievably huge. And then she said, I can't say anything more. Delete our conversation. She's never, never sounded that scared. But I've. So obviously I've been unable to contact her again. But I've just been speaking to a UK based activist and she told me that a friend of hers in Shiraz had somehow managed to make contact today. Had said that there are still protests going on. Very interesting, actually, what this man told her. He has apparently been shot himself by pellet guns. And he said what the authorities there have been doing is shooting everyone wildly. This is his account, with tear gas and with pellet guns. And then if there's anyone who dares to confront the authorities by, for example, throwing stones, stones at security forces, that's when they open fire with live ammunition. Now, I've not heard that account before, but that's, that's just one account that I'm hearing via a UK based activist from Shiraz in Iran.

Matthew Amrolliwola (9:58)

Paul, let's pick up on something that you said in your earlier answer. You made the point that the Iranians are saying they are willing to negotiate with the US but only on an equal basis. But in terms of the Trump administration, do you get any sense that he is seeing this as an opportunity to topple this regime?

Paul Adams (10:17)

Well, look, Matthew, I'm sure that's on his mind. Donald Trump has been ambivalent about this in the past. It has mostly obviously been about Iran's nuclear ambitions and America's keen desire, along with Israel, to curb Iranian activities around the Middle east. Though after the 12 Day War last summer in which both Israel and the United States attacked and delivered serious blows to Iran, Donald Trump did post on social media the phrase make Iran great again and sort of hinting at the possibility that regime change was on his mind. And we've heard some of the similar rhetoric in the last few days. Just on Saturday, he said Iran is looking at freedom perhaps like never before. The usa, he said, stands ready to help. And he called the leaders in Iran violent. I don't know if you call them leaders. They rule through violence. So the idea of removing that leadership, I think is on his mind. Although I'm sure that many, many voices in Washington will be advising him to be very, very careful if he decides to go down that route.

Matthew Amrolliwola (11:27)

A quick postscript on just that, because Jackson has contacted us to say, would U.S. allies be supportive of any strikes in Iran?

Paul Adams (11:37)

You know, Iran, despite its many, many recent setbacks, is still a large, complex, important regional player. And I think the possibility of regime change is one that needs to be looked at incredibly carefully because I think the consequences of it could be highly unpredictable, both within Iran, which has a complex ethnic makeup, but also across the region. What would be the impact, for example, on a place like Iraq, which is where Iranian influence has been great in recent years? What would be the implications for Iran's various proxies around the region? Of course, Israel would be delighted to see the head of the snake as it sees it, defeated in the wake of the blows delivered to people like Hezbollah, the Houthis, Hamas, and, of course, the end of the Assad regime in Syria. Iran's regional influence has been hugely dented and damaged by events over the past 18 months or so. And so there are strong voices certainly in Israel, saying that it is time to finish the job. But I think the consequences could be so complex that I think the notion of regime change will be one that the Trump administration, even with its enthusiasm for taking abrupt and robust action around the world, will be fairly careful before embarking on.

Matthew Amrolliwola (12:58)

Yes, you're absolutely right. Iran's tentacles have stretched across so many countries in that wider region. Siivash, just on the possibilities of a conflict, your assessment of how people, protesters, even feel about a possible war?

Sivash Ardalan (13:15)

Well, in the very beginning days of the protest, President Trump warned that he will intervene if the regime starts killing protesters. Now, some protesters were trusting that warning, thinking that if they go out to the street, they will be protected by the United States somehow believing that the US has an actionable plan to prevent a crackdown. Obviously, that didn't happen. The regime completely ignored President Trump's warning and went ahead and carried out one of the biggest killings in the past year. So a lot of people may have lost faith in President Trump's warning. Now that the killings have taken place, the question is whether the protesters demand some of them for regime change will be met. From what President Trump said, the Iranians contact me, wanted us to negotiate. We might negotiate with them, but we might hit them as well. So he's not saying he's going for regime change, and he's not saying that he will not hit Iran. Many protesters are hoping that will lead to regime change. Others are just worried about the prospect of plunging from one crisis to another.

Matthew Amrolliwola (14:16)

A real quick one on this because Iran's parliamentary speaker said Tehran would consider US bases and Israel as targets if they detected signs of an impending attack. So again, they are watching very, very closely any sort of potential action from Israel, from the US and then deciding what they might do.

Sivash Ardalan (14:37)

Absolutely. They have their own scenarios in mind. They initially had warned that Iran might even carry out preemptive strikes in anticipation of an Israeli or a U.S. attack. But today Iran's foreign minister ruled that out yet said we're very ready for a war, even more ready than we were back in June when Israel attacked Iran.

Matthew Amrolliwola (14:56)

I'm going to come to Caroline in a moment, but Paul, I just want to ask you one more question. If we go down this particular route, because it is unclear, isn't it, as we're talking now, what sort of arsenal that Iran has left after the conflicts of 2025.

Paul Adams (15:12)

Yes. I mean, Donald Trump at the time was trumpeting America's success, saying that Iran's nuclear program had been completely obliterated. I think all the intelligence assessments since then, or at least what we understand of those intelligence assessments, suggest that the damage was very significant but not necessarily terminal. Iran's nuclear program and indeed its entire military infrastructure is quite diffuse. Elements of it are extremely well protected. And it is not thought that the nuclear effort kind of ground to a halt as a result of the attacks of last summer. So elements of it persist. Clearly, you know, it wasn't just the operation, the 12 day war. The Israelis had already launched attacks before that which had had a devastating effect on Iran's air defenses. And so Iran is in a very weak position, whatever the leadership may suggest. And even though the US doesn't have a huge flotilla of ships and aircraft carriers and so forth in the region, it's got enough and we know that it can do things from a distance to deliver more blows. Not necessarily kind of Venezuela style helicopter borne operations to capture elements of the Iranian regime, but certainly the ability to destroy barracks, to go after the besieged militia that is responsible for so much of the repression on the streets and to launch kind of symbolic attacks that could even kill or target elements of the Iranian leadership.

Will Chalk (16:47)

This is a special edition of the global News podcast. On 12 January 2026, you are listening to Caroline Hawley and Paul Adams, two of the BBC's diplomatic correspondents, and Sivash Ardlan from BBC Persian, answering questions about the anti government protests in Iraq.

Helena Merriman (17:11)

If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed. In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that sparked chilling theories. Helena I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau, Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

Matthew Amrolliwola (17:48)

I've got eight or nine questions still to go. Caroline, let me put one of them to you. The former Shah of Iran's son has been very outspoken. Is he being considered as one of the people who could take over if the regime was to fall?

Caroline Hawley (18:01)

That's a really interesting question. And there are many people now who are putting their minds to what would happen the day after. Who would rule Iran, how would it be governed? I think the key problem with Iran is because of the political repression there. There is no formal opposition in Iran. It's simply not allowed. There are very significant figures who fought against the regiment, battled for human rights, like Nages Mohammadi, who won the Nobel Peace Prize. Now she's a very significant player in Iran. Then. What you've had recently during these protests is calls for which we've heard before in previous uprisings and previous protests, death to dictate to the dictator. But new this time, very new, were calls for the monarchy to be restored and for the crown Prince, former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, to return to Iran. People saying, long live the king. And this had not happened in previous bouts of unrest that I've heard of. Now, he's an unpopular figure among many Iranians. He's very controversial, links with Israel, that kind of thing. So there are many questions about him. But what I've been hearing from people is that they are so desperate to see an end to this regime that some have, some say, yes, we need a rallying point, and he has become that rallying point. And so when he last week called for people to turn out on the streets on Thursday and then again on Friday, that seems to have paved the way. And Sierra Bush may have a better sense of exactly how key he, Reza Pahlavi has, has, has been in all of this. But he called for people to come out and they did. And then they were cracked down on Sivash.

Matthew Amrolliwola (19:57)

Pick up on that point because two points. How much support does he have within Iran? And it is always risky, Caroline, ending with that point. People outside of Iran calling for people inside Iran to take to the streets, given all the risks we know about.

Sivash Ardalan (20:13)

Well, the issue of the Iranian opposition is very complex at the moment. If you want to divide them in two categories, you have the monarchists led by Reza Pahlavi, and you have the non monarchists, the Republicans. The Republicans are very fractured, composed of various groups. But the monarchists, owing to a very powerful campaign, not just against the regime in Iran, but against also the Republicans and the opposition, other opposition forces, they have managed to rally the people, the protesters. In fact, in a way that surprised really many, many observers in Iran, providing a positive vision, not just something against a dictatorship, but really through AI images that have proliferated inside the country with social media, that people have a vision. And that vision is becoming a powerful country, economically prosperous, something like Iran's neighbors in the south, like, like UAE and Saudi Arabia. And that kind of image is what the young people are yearning for. So the more support he has gained, that kind of had seemed to to spread out more because people are seeing that he is the only person who managed to inspire enough people to come out in such huge numbers out on the street. But whether to give you a percentage wise, it's very, very difficult.

Matthew Amrolliwola (21:30)

Caroline, a quick question, because a couple of questions have come in. People asking what Iran was like before the Islamic Revolution.

Caroline Hawley (21:36)

Well, I never visited, unfortunately, but definitely it was more socially liberal. And footage has sort of re emerged of, of women wearing miniskirts and that kind of thing. But it was also extremely repressed, repressive with secret police. The Shah of Iran was seen as an autocrat and he was deeply unpopular and ultimately overthrown. But I never visited.

Matthew Amrolliwola (22:01)

Paul, let me ask you about what the Iranian Foreign Ministry have recently said. They have summoned the French, the German, the Italian, the UK envoys over support for these protests. There will be worry, won't they? Not just what is happening within Iran, but how the rest of the world is responding.

Paul Adams (22:21)

It's a very difficult dilemma right now. I mean, look at Donald Trump's situation. He has spoken about his willingness to rescue the protesters. He runs a real risk now of doing nothing and being seen by a large part of the Iranian population as being full of hot air, but not willing to follow through with action and consequently experiencing a large loss of face, something that Donald Trump does not like doing, or of going in and doing too much and triggering, you know, huge levels of internal instability and regional instability too. And perhaps to create a kind of situation which might suck back Western and in particular American militaries to a part of the world that frankly, none of them want to go back to that must be a specter that is in his mind. You know, this is not an easy one. This is not Venezuela. This is a much, much more complicated situation. And so there will be people saying, you know, think hard before doing too much. But also, frankly, given the rhetoric so far, you can't be seen to do nothing.

Matthew Amrolliwola (23:30)

Sivach, let's loop back round to the scale of what we're seeing, because it is not just Tehran and a few other cities. It is in so many different places now, isn't it?

Sivash Ardalan (23:40)

Well, let's be careful in using the present tense, because we don't know whether the protests are still ongoing. They may have completely been put out after this crackdown. But what we did see on the 8th of 9th of January, which was historical, is people taking out to the street and very large number. This is not just like the previous protests where you had youngsters confronting the security forces in scattered pockets of the city. But this is people from all age categories, all walks of life, coming out to the street and challenging the system. This is what it takes to start a revolution. And we were in the initial phases of that. So this protest was historically very important.

Matthew Amrolliwola (24:17)

It's really important, isn't it, not to underestimate. You have the Supreme Leader, you had the Revolutionary Guard. You have decades of the tightest grip from this regime over its people.

Sivash Ardalan (24:29)

People simplify the overthrow of this regime. There are so many layers of security. The security apparatus is so powerful. So much investment has gone into consolidating this. It's not as if people come out in the streets and the Revolutionary Guards will suddenly melt away. More killings, according to the estimates that we're getting, have taken place in such a short span of time that even during Syria's civil war, so we have a very powerful force that is prepared to fight to the end. And if it feels cornered, it might even take, you know, risks or do things that might seem suicidal.

Matthew Amrolliwola (25:06)

I'll come back to you in just a moment for a final thought. Paul, a final thought from you, because it does feel, feel like we're reaching a crossroads, a crunch moment. But we've seen with the Trump administration, they have moved extraordinarily quickly at times. You think of hitting Iran's nuclear facilities, you look at what happened in Venezuela only recently, things may well move on this remarkably at speed.

Paul Adams (25:29)

Yes. And look, this is an administration very much buoyed up by its recent successes. Donald Trump has spoken of America's unrivaled military prowess, the ability of the American military to carry out operations whenever and wherever it wants. But he also referred the other day to Operation Eagle Claw in 1980, the operation that Jimmy Carter launched to try and rescue American diplomats held in Tehran after the Iranian revolution. That operation ended in disaster as helicopters collided in the Iranian desert. That is a specter which still hangs over America when it comes to dealing with Iran. And it is something the president, this president is aware of. It will be just one of many reasons why he will be thinking hard.

Matthew Amrolliwola (26:18)

SEV Ash, just 20 seconds. What are you looking out for in the next couple of days?

Sivash Ardalan (26:22)

I don't think given the the severity of the crackdown, more protests will be taking place or they'll expand. I think what we have to look for is the possibility of a US Attack, where it will hit and how the Iranians will take it, whether that might embolden some Iranians to go back out on the street.

Will Chalk (26:39)

Thanks for listening to this special edition of the Global News Podcast. That is all from us for now, but there will be a new edition of the Global News Podcast later. If you want to comment on this podcast or the topics we've covered, you can send us an email. The address is globalpodcastbc.co.uk. you can also find us on XBCWorldService. Use the hashtag globalnewspod. I'm Will Chalk until next time. Goodbye.

Helena Merriman (27:11)

If journalism is the first draft of history, what happens if that draft is flawed? In 1999, four Russian apartment buildings were bombed, hundreds killed. But even now, we still don't know for sure who did it. It's a mystery that spirit sparked chilling theories. I'm Helena Merriman, and in a new BBC series, I'm talking to the reporters who first covered this story. What did they miss the first time? The History Bureau, Putin and the apartment bombs. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.