Global News Podcast: Iran Special — Q&A

BBC World Service | Aired January 12, 2026

Host: Matthew Amrolliwola (with Will Chalk)
Guests: Caroline Hawley (London), Paul Adams (Washington), Sivash Ardalan (BBC Persia)

Overview

This "Iran Special: Q&A" episode responds to urgent questions from listeners amidst the unprecedented anti-government protests in Iran, sparked by economic grievances and escalating into widespread calls for regime change. Amid severe crackdowns and an internet blackout, the BBC's diplomatic correspondents and Persian service journalist provide expert insight into the protest dynamics, the regime's response, the potential for US intervention, and the uncertain future of Iranian governance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Scale and Nature of the Protests

• Origins & Escalation:

  • The protests began in late December over inflation and economic crises but rapidly expanded to include broad anti-regime sentiment.
  • Sivash Ardalan describes haunting scenes: “A video clip, very heart wrenching and horrific… hundreds of bodies were piled upon each other and relatives or families of these people searching for their loved ones.” (02:20)

• Comparisons:

  • The crisis is compared to Syria’s civil war and recent situations in Gaza due to the scale of repression.

• Regime’s Narrative & Control:

  • Caroline Hawley notes the Iranian regime blames unrest on “rioters inspired by Donald Trump and Israel”, but this is a pattern following past major protests (2009, 2019, 2022).
  • She emphasizes: “What is different this time is that the Iranian regime is under pressure from inside and out… it has been weakened by the war in June when Israel attacked with the US the nuclear facilities.” (03:14)

• Information Blackout:

  • Both internet and international phone lines are down, with the regime working to “control the narrative” through state media.
  • Caroline shares an activist’s chilling real-time account from Shiraz: “I've been out on the street for an hour, the crowds are unbelievably huge. And then she said, I can't say anything more. Delete our conversation. She’s never, never sounded that scared.” (08:03)

2. The Regime's and Protesters' Perspectives

• Official Framing:

  • Initial recognition of the protests by the government, then swift recharacterization of protesters: “The rioters became armed terrorists trained by Mossad and by the CIA to sow discord inside the country.” — Sivash Ardalan (06:40)
  • The government now claims most deaths are among security forces and “innocent private citizens killed by the protesters.”

• On the Ground:

  • The crackdown has instilled a sense of despair and terror—"Everyone knows someone who has been killed," says Ardalan.
  • Caroline describes a new pattern of violence: “Authorities… shooting everyone wildly. This is his account, with tear gas and with pellet guns. And then if there’s anyone who dares to confront the authorities... they open fire with live ammunition.” (08:03)

3. International Reactions and US Policy

• Donald Trump's Stance:

  • Trump warns of "very strong options" and references military intervention, with a White House briefing imminent.
  • Adams: “He also said, and I’m quoting here: ‘but we may have to act because of what’s happening before that meeting.’ So clearly a strong warning.” (05:11)

• Prospects of US Military Action:

  • Trump administration weighs options with unpredictability about support from US allies.
  • Adams on regime change: “There are strong voices certainly in Israel, saying that it is time to finish the job. But I think the consequences could be so complex… even with its enthusiasm for taking abrupt and robust action… [the Trump administration] will be fairly careful before embarking on.” (11:37)

• Protesters’ Faith in Western Support:

  • Initial hope among protesters for US intervention has waned: “A lot of people may have lost faith in President Trump's warning. Now that the killings have taken place, the question is whether the protesters demand… will be met.” — Sivash Ardalan (13:15)

4. Iran's Military and Regional Position

• Current Strength and Readiness:

  • Iran’s nuclear facilities severely damaged but not eliminated after US-Israeli attacks; military remains “diffuse” and some capabilities persist. (15:12)
  • Iran’s regional influence is weakened, but any external action risks further destabilization in Iraq and among Iran’s regional proxies.

• Iran’s Threats of Retaliation:

  • Tehran warns it will target US bases and Israel if provoked, but rules out preemptive strikes.
  • Ardalan: “They have their own scenarios in mind… Iran's foreign minister said we're very ready for a war, even more ready than we were back in June when Israel attacked Iran.” (14:37)

5. Succession and the Future of Governance

• Possible Leadership if Regime Falls:

  • Discussion on Reza Pahlavi (son of former Shah, living in exile):

    • Caroline Hawley: “New this time, very new, were calls for the monarchy to be restored… Reza Pahlavi has become that rallying point.” (18:01)
    • His popularity is controversial and not universally shared, but some see him as a needed figurehead in the regime’s absence.

  • Opposition Dynamics:

    • Ardalan: "Monarchists, owing to a very powerful campaign... have managed to rally the people, the protesters. In fact, in a way that surprised really many, many observers in Iran, providing a positive vision…" (20:13)

• Historical Reflections:

  • Before the Islamic Revolution, Iran was more socially liberal, "but it was also extremely repressed, repressive with secret police. The Shah of Iran was seen as an autocrat and he was deeply unpopular." — Caroline Hawley (21:36)

6. Prospects and Next Steps

• The Protest Movement's Future:

  • Scale is unmatched; masses took to streets in historical numbers across Iran, not just in major cities, signaling the “initial phases of… revolution.” (23:40)
  • Still, the regime’s security apparatus is deeply entrenched and prepared to use more force: “People simplify the overthrow of this regime. There are so many layers of security… so much investment... It’s not as if people come out in the streets and the Revolutionary Guards will suddenly melt away.” — Ardalan (24:29)

• Critical Juncture:

  • Paul Adams on a potential US response: “This is not Venezuela. This is a much, much more complicated situation. And so there will be people saying, you know, think hard before doing too much. But also, frankly… you can’t be seen to do nothing.” (22:21)
  • Historic references to failed operations hang heavy, e.g., “Operation Eagle Claw… that is a specter which still hangs over America when it comes to dealing with Iran.” (25:29)

• Imminent Priorities:

  • Ardalan concludes: “I think what we have to look for is the possibility of a US Attack, where it will hit and how the Iranians will take it, whether that might embolden some Iranians to go back out on the street.” (26:22)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Sivash Ardalan on grassroots horror:

  “Everyone knows someone who has been killed. So the situation is one that you would associate with the Syria civil war or with Gaza today.” (02:20)

• Caroline Hawley on regime’s existential crisis:

  “It is a moment of great peril for the Islamic regime... And they have been using… unprecedented force to try to control the streets. So it has come at a huge cost to Iranians.” (03:14)

• Paul Adams on US options:

  “He also has spoken about his desire to rescue the protesters, as he's put it… But we may have to act because of what’s happening before that meeting.” (05:11)

• Sivash Ardalan on hopes and fears:

  “Many protesters are hoping [US threats] will lead to regime change. Others are just worried about the prospect of plunging from one crisis to another.” (13:15)

• Caroline Hawley on Pahlavi’s emergence:

  “Very new, were calls for the monarchy to be restored and for… Reza Pahlavi to return to Iran. People saying, long live the king. And this had not happened in previous bouts of unrest I’ve heard of.” (18:01)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 02:20 — On-the-ground reports and video evidence of mass killings (Sivash Ardalan)
• 03:14 — Threat level for the regime; historical context of uprisings (Caroline Hawley)
• 05:11 — Trump administration’s reaction and warnings (Paul Adams)
• 06:40 — Regime’s evolving narrative and propaganda (Sivash Ardalan)
• 08:03 — Daily fear under blackout, activist anecdotes (Caroline Hawley)
• 11:37 — US/Israel intentions and risks of regime change (Paul Adams)
• 13:15 — Protesters’ perception of Western intervention (Sivash Ardalan)
• 15:12 — State of Iran’s military/nuclear program (Paul Adams)
• 18:01 — Role and support for Reza Pahlavi (Caroline Hawley)
• 20:13 — Complexity among opposition groups (Sivash Ardalan)
• 23:40 — Historic scale of protest movement, revolution beginnings (Sivash Ardalan)
• 24:29 — Deep challenges of dismantling regime apparatus (Sivash Ardalan)
• 25:29 — Weighing US historical failures in Iran (Paul Adams)
• 26:22 — Anticipation of new US actions, future of protests (Sivash Ardalan)

Conclusion

This special Q&A captures a nation on a knife-edge—devastated yet defiant, with a regime showing no willingness to share or relinquish power, an opposition whose leadership is muddled but hopes rising, and a world weighing the cost of intervention. Unprecedented repression collides with unprecedented dissent, leaving Iran’s fate—and that of the wider region—uncertain and deeply perilous. The episode offers essential, first-hand, and analytical insight into a crisis with vast implications well beyond its borders.