Kashmir crisis questions

Summary

Global News Podcast: Kashmir Crisis Questions
Release Date: May 7, 2025
Host: Oliver Conway
Guests:

• Aruna Day Mukherjee (Delhi)
• Farhad Javad (Muzaffarabad, Pakistani-administered Kashmir)
• Lise Doucet (Chief International Correspondent)

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Introduction

In this special edition of the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service, host Oliver Conway delves into the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan over the disputed Kashmir region. With insights from experts and on-the-ground reporting, the episode provides a comprehensive overview of the crisis, its historical roots, and its potential global implications.

Historical Context of the Kashmir Conflict

Aruna Day Mukherjee provides a detailed historical background, tracing the origins of the conflict to the 1947 partition of British India into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority Pakistan. She explains:

"Kashmir was left to decide on its own where it wanted to join. Initially, Kashmir sought independence, but the local Hindu ruler chose to accede to India amid a Pakistani tribal invasion, igniting the long-standing conflict."
[01:46]

Mukherjee highlights that since 1947, both nations have claimed Kashmir in its entirety but only control parts of it, leading to two wars and ongoing insurgencies. India's longstanding allegation is that Pakistan supports separatist groups in Kashmir, a claim that exacerbates tensions.

Recent Attack and Its Impact

The episode focuses on a recent attack on April 22, where 26 civilians, predominantly tourists, were targeted—marking a shift from previous attacks aimed at security personnel. Mukherjee notes:

"This was different from past attacks targeting security forces; civilians were attacked, leading to widespread shock and anger."
[03:50]

Prime Minister Narendra Modi responded vehemently, promising to pursue the perpetrators relentlessly, which has intensified the political pressure on his government to act decisively against terrorism.

Perspectives from Pakistan-Administered Kashmir

Farhad Javad, reporting from Muzaffarabad, describes the region's beauty juxtaposed with the harsh realities of conflict:

"Muzaffarabad is as picturesque as Indian-administered Kashmir, but the people here suffer immensely during conflicts, especially those living near the Line of Control."
[04:34]

He details the aftermath of the latest attacks, including the destruction of a mosque and the fear among residents of further strikes:

"Families were forced to flee overnight, leaving homes unsecured, with children screaming and women crying. The uncertainty and fear are palpable."
[06:27]

Farhad also touches on the public sentiment in Pakistan, noting that while Kashmir is a significant issue taught from a young age, it doesn't receive the same politicization as in India.

International Implications and Flashpoint Potential

Lise Doucet provides a broader geopolitical analysis, highlighting the dangerous potential of Kashmir as a global flashpoint:

"Kashmir is not just a regional issue; it's entangled with major powers like China, the United States, Russia, and Iran, making it a highly volatile flashpoint."
[09:28]

She traces the evolution of militant groups and the shifting alliances, noting China's increasing influence as the U.S. reduces its involvement. The complexity is further heightened by each nation's nuclear capabilities, raising the stakes of any military engagement.

The Possibility of Escalation to Full War

The discussion shifts to the risk of full-scale war between India and Pakistan. Mukherjee suggests that while the current rhetoric is aggressive, both nations likely seek to avoid a total war, despite intense posturing:

"Both countries would certainly look to avoid a full-blown war, especially given the international pressures and the significant consequences of such an escalation."
[16:18]

She references the 2019 Pulwama attack, where India's retaliatory airstrikes in Pakistan led to a temporary ceasefire, illustrating the fragile nature of de-escalation mechanisms.

Overview of Current Geopolitical Alliances

Doucet elaborates on the current geopolitical landscape, emphasizing the shift in alliances:

"Pakistan's traditional military backer, the United States, has been replaced by China, altering the balance of power in the region."
[09:28]

She explains how China's role as an ally to Pakistan and its increasing influence contrasts with India's growing ties with the United States, positioning India as a regional power countering Chinese dominance.

Conclusion

The episode concludes with reflections on the emotional and historical depth of the Kashmir conflict. Doucet poignantly remarks:

"Kashmir is paradise now bloodied by conflict, an enduring symbol of the deep animosities between India and Pakistan."
[21:22]

The Global News Podcast underscores the urgency for a peaceful resolution, highlighting the human cost and the broader implications for regional and global stability. With the international community watching closely, the future of Kashmir remains uncertain, with the hope that dialogue and diplomacy can bridge the enduring divide.

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Notable Quotes:

• Aruna Day Mukherjee on historical tensions:

  "It all began in 1947... Kashmir was left to decide on its own where it wanted to join."
  [01:46]

• Farhad Javad on living in conflict zones:

  "Families were forced to flee overnight, leaving homes unsecured, with children screaming and women crying."
  [06:27]

• Lise Doucet on global implications:

  "Kashmir is not just a regional issue; it's entangled with major powers like China, the United States, Russia, and Iran."
  [09:28]

• Lise Doucet on the emotional depth of Kashmir:

  "Kashmir is paradise now bloodied by conflict, an enduring symbol of the deep animosities between India and Pakistan."
  [21:22]

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This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the Kashmir crisis, its historical roots, the current state of affairs, and its global significance.

Transcript

[Oliver Conway]

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[Oliver Conway]

This is a special edition of the Global News podcast from the BBC World Service. Hello, I'm Oliver Conway and in this episode we'll be exploring the relationship between India and Pakistan as tensions flare between the two nuclear armed neighbors. I'll be joined by Aruna Day Mukherjee in Delhi, Farhad Javad in Mazafrabad in Pakistani administered Kashmir and our chief international correspondent, Lise Doucet. So we'll start with you Arun. Why is there so much tension between India and Pakistan over Kashmir?

[Aruna Day Mukherjee]

Well, that's a question that we know we really need to go back a few decades to understand where it all began. And it all began in 1947 when Britain, which ruled over this territory, divided up the region it ruled over into Hindu majority India and a Muslim majority Pakistan. Now at that time, Kashmir was essentially left to decide on its own where it wanted to join. Now initially Kashmir wanted independence, but then later on, the local ruler of Kashmir at that time, a Hindu, decided to accede to India at a time when a Pakistani tribal army invaded the region. So since then the conflict really began. Now both countries, India and Pakistan, claim the territory in full, but control only in part. They fought two wars over Kashmir. They've also fought a limited conflict as well in 1999. But essentially what has happened is this entire region has seen an armed separatist insurgency for decades now against Indian rule which has claimed the lives of thousands of civilians as well as security personnel. Now India for all these decades has maintained one allegation, that all these separatist groups operating in Indian administered Kashmir have the backing of Pakistan because of this bloody history that goes back to 1947 and those wars and conflicts that were fought over Kashmir for. So essentially this time is no different again now on the 22nd of April when you saw this particular attack take place, it was different from the attacks that we've seen in the recent past because most of them, case in point 2016 when 19 army soldiers were killed, killed, 2019 when 40 paramilitary personnel were killed. These were all targeted attacks on security personnel. But this time the difference was these were civilians, 26 civilians, most of them tourists, were targeted in that deadly attack. Now that's what changed the dynamics of it all. Which is why you've seen this kind of outpouring of shock and anger in the country which is why there's also been considerable pressure on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party government, which is in alliance with a few other parties to really do something about it. Especially because this party has always championed this very muscular brand of nationalism, talking tough on terror. So they had this pressure to act as well. You heard the Prime Minister Narendra Modi using words like we will pursue the attackers and their backers till the ends of the earth. That has now translated into what we saw transpire overnight. So this area has always seen a lot of conflict, this time with a difference given the targeting of civilians, which is why you're seeing this kind of response which is dominating headlines.

[Oliver Conway]

And farhat, for people who've never been to Pakistani administered Kashmir or indeed Indian administered Kashmir, just describe for us what the region looks like.

[Farhat Javad]

So I am in Muzaffarabad which is the capital of Pakistan administered Kashmir. This region is as picturesque and as beautiful as the part of Kashmir which is administered by India is. It's a beautiful valley, nestled in the mountains, lush green. And I have been doing quite a lot of reporting in, you know, to covering conflict around line of control in different parts of Pakistan administered Kashmir. So I have come here quite often. I have always been, you know, mesmerized by the beauty this region has but at the same time painful stories and the struggles that people go through whenever there is a conflict in this region, whenever there is a cross border firing, it's I think the people who are living on very close to these borders, they are the one they suffer the most.

[Oliver Conway]

And what is the view of people in Pakistan of the unrest in Kashmir?

[Farhat Javad]

In Indian administered Kashmir, people are usually concerned. Yes, that is true. Kashmir, Indian administrative Kashmir. This subject has been part of Pakistan's school curriculum in colleges, universities. This is what Kids as young as 5, 6 years old are taught what is happening in Kashmir, their human rights violations, etc. This is part of textbooks that Pakistani children, you know, grow up reading. But at the same time, Kashmir issue in Pakistan is not as much, I mean, analysts believe that it is not as much politicized as it is in, in India. So that also stands as a fact. And many believe that Kashmir is part of, you know, a political party's manifesto before every election. But it doesn't get as much hype as it gets in India.

[Oliver Conway]

And what is the feeling in Muzaffarabad after this latest increase in tensions between the two nations?

[Farhat Javad]

Yes, I am in Muzaffarabad and I am standing right in front of one of the mosques which was targeted in Pakistan and Pakistan administered Kashmir. It is completely damaged. Three people who were inside this mosque, they were killed in this attack. But not only this mosque is damaged, it is located right in the middle of a residential area. So the houses which were adjacent to this mosque, they are also partially damaged. Families, they left their homes overnight. We have spoken to some of the family members who came back in the morning to assess the damages to their properties and to lock their doors because they didn't have time to lock the door. They ran away barefoot. And you know, they told me that children were screaming, there were women who were crying and it was, they could see, you know, they could not only they could hear these loud explosions, they could see flashes of light whenever there was a strike. So it was quite a horrifying experience for them. It doesn't happen in Muzaffarabad. We are talking about the capital of Pakistan administered Kashmir, under 100 kilometer away from the line of control where usually strikes or cross border firing happen. So people were not expecting that. It was quite shocking for them. And there still is quite a lot of uncertainty and fear. And they feared that if this place right in the center of Muzaffarabad has been targeted now, it could be their turn any other day. So there definitely is a fear and uncertainty and they are worried. I have seen so many people standing in groups, in small groups and they are talking about the updates. They are also sharing rumors. They are also sharing their worries. I mean, what would happen next? So they are concerned whether there would be more strikes or there will be a war or the worst is over already. So they are constantly asking these questions. I have been meeting shopkeepers here who would be asking me like, do you know what will happen next? Of course, it's too early to say anything What Pakistan would do, what sort of retaliation would that be and how India would respond to that. But people here in this region, because they are, you know, they are the ones who basically become main victims in this crisis, they are quite worried. And at the same time we have spoken to some people, some specially those who are the members of civil society, they also feel that whenever something happens, the Kashmir issue, this dispute is overlooked and it goes beyond that. And people start talking more about what is between India and Pakistan and not what is happening in Kashmir region. There is this war fatigue as well. They do not want this. They are tired of these escalations and the kind of trouble it brings to their daily life.

[Oliver Conway]

Now, Liz, the whole Kashmir region is disputed by India and Pakistan and even China controls parts of it. Tell us how dangerous a flashpoint Kashmir is for the world.

[Lise Doucet]

Well, I'll begin by saying hello to Farhat and Aruna Day. I was the BBC Pakistan Correspondent in 1989 and saw, witnessed myself at the line of control, the first stirrings of Kashmiri militancy which were indigenous groups, the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front, jklf, who did this long march to the border. And I had just, I had come from Kabul, which of course was the Cold War battle between the Soviet backed communist government in Kabul, the American backed Mujahideen working with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. And I remember writing at the time, why doesn't the world care about Kashmir? Why isn't Kashmir getting the attention of other countries? And that is because, and we heard from Aruna today, a little capsule history is that the militancy has waxed and waned over time. And in fact the most militant groups emerged out of the Cold War. The Cold War battles out of links with Al Qaeda. Pakistan banned groups like Lashkari, Toiba and Jeshu Mohammed in 2002. But India's accusation is that they are very much still based in the Punjab region of Pakistan. They have taken on different guises and some of the places which India has hit this time are linked to one other of those groups. The current group that is most dominant in Kashmir is the resistance front, the trf. But India says they are a front for Lashkari Taiba, which Pakistan denies. Where are we now? You know, I kind of gave a little sketch about who were the main players before, but where we are now is that Pakistan's main ally, main military backer who used to fund and arm the Pakistan military was the United States, which could pick up the phone and speak to the Pakistan military, which literally calls the shots in 2025, the United States has been displaced by China. China is the all weather friend of Pakistan going back decades. Now it is playing an increasingly important role with the retreat of the United States, which is now closer to India. So you have one side, Pakistan, very close to China, The Pakistani military armed by China. You have the Indian government, as we heard from Aruna Day, increasingly militant backed, very close personal and political relationship with the United States, particularly under President Donald Trump. You have Russia somewhere in the mix as well. Iran as well has been trying to mediate. So not only do you have two nuclear superpowers, you have these other major powers who are watching on. And I think the commentary today when many are asked this question, who can stop it, Is that no one has both the ability and the will to be able to pull these two sides back from this brink.

[Oliver Conway]

And of course, there are huge dangers. Aruna Day, just take us back to 2019 when there was a similar escalation and an Indian fighter pilot was shot down over Pakistan.

[Aruna Day Mukherjee]

That's right. That was 2019, where it was one of the worst attacks that India said was targeted at its security forces. This was a paramilitary force operating in Indian administered Kashmir. There was a convoy that was passing through the town of Pulwama in Indian administered Kashmir. And that's when there was an attack which claimed the lives of 40 paramilitary personnel. Now, that's when we saw the Indian government respond. And their response was airstrikes deep inside Pakistani territory in a place called Balakot. Now, you know, again, the Indian government at that time said that they were targeting militant camps as well, charges that Pakistan denied. Following that, there was, there was sort of a dogfight between Indian aircraft and Pakistani aircraft in which one of the Indian pilots had to eject and was captured by Pakistani forces. It was heavily publicized and he was handed over to the Indian side after negotiations. So it was an interesting turn of events because, you know, on one side you had this sort of aggressive stance and posturing from the Indian side. And then you also had Pakistan handing over this pilot who had ejected and found himself in Pakistani territory. But what went on behind closed doors, well, that's something, we don't know what negotiations took place. But the end result was that this pilot found his way home, handed over by Pakistan to India. After that, we saw a ceasefire which has largely held over the line of control, the de facto border, barring a few incidents. But this time around, I think, you know, the difference is the scale of the operations that India has carried out. I think there was always an assessment that There would be something that would happen given the kind of tough talk that we heard from the Indian side. But this scale is what has surprised many, which is why this time around the kind of tough talk, the responses that you're hearing is what is making things a little more uncertain and unsettling. You know, India carrying out what did naming this operation with a very loaded term, Operation Sindur. Sindur essentially is vermilion that is applied by Hindu married women and the parting of their hair to basically symbolize marriage which is sacred in the Hindu religion. Operation Sindur was that loaded statement to send another message along with the military message that this is a response to all those widows who lost their husbands in that attack on the 22nd of April. So it's interesting, sorry I deviate but it's such a complex story to tell and it's all moving very fast. But you know, just the way in which the press conference was carried out by India, they showed a capsule of all the recent attacks in India which have claimed civilian lives, which have claimed security forces lives as well. It was a capsule that was shown just ahead of the press briefing. India positioning itself as a country which has always been a victim of what it said were these terror related incidents which have been sort of backed by Pakistan. And then India made that argument that look, this essentially was an act of self defense, a preemptive strike which was calculated, which was targeted based on credible evidence and it was something that India had to do to ensure that India doesn't remain vulnerable. So that is the argument that India will continue to give. And from its point of view, you know, I was just looking at the Indian army handle on X, you know, their hashtag was justiceserved. So if you look at that, it seems to suggest that India at least is trying to communicate that it has achieved what it set out to achieve. So in a sense now the ball is in Pakistan's court when it says that Pakistan now reserves the right to respond at a time and place of its own choosing. We're entering this dangerous phase of what could be, you know, very risky tit for tat retaliatory measures.

[Oliver Conway]

Yeah, a dangerous phase. Of course India and Pakistan have fought full blown wars over Kashmir. We're not thinking that it would descend into that kind of situation, are we?

[Aruna Day Mukherjee]

You know the opinion, you know, over here it's very hard to say what's going to happen. Like I said, I think taking off from my last point there that you know India from India's point of view, what military experts and a Lot of analysts who we've been monitoring and we've been speaking to seem to suggest that, you know, India's achieved what it had to do. So they, you know, the kind of language that they use, that this was calculated, this was a measured response, this was a proportionate response, these words are important, which kind of suggests that, look, we were just looking to target certain specific camps which were a threat to India, which is what we've gone after. We've not targeted military installations. This is India's side of the story. We've not targeted civilians. India is very categorical about that, which of course Pakistan is denying, citing numbers of dead civilians that Pakistan has said, India of course denying that. So a full blown war is something that I think both countries would perhaps try to avoid. I think the rhetoric though that is carrying on is, is a lot of tough posturing, is a lot of sort of flexing of muscles. Whether it actually goes on to the next phase is something that would be very hard to assess or speculate about. You know, so far, any kind of attack that we've seen in the past, we've seen limited military operations. 2016 with those, what India called were surgical strikes. 2019, those airstrikes. Now 2025 you have these airstrikes taking place. A full blown war, well, is anyone's guess. But at the moment both countries would certainly look to avoid that. And also given the kind of international pressure that might be coming in, as Lis was mentioning, you also have to understand we've got, you know, Iran's foreign minister who just visited Pakistan, he's going, he's due to be in India in the week ahead. You've got India trying to position itself on the global platform as a, which is trying to secure trade deals with countries like the UK which just was finalized yesterday, which is on Tuesday. You've got India working very hard to finalize another trade deal with the US positioning itself as that global regional power, countering the growing Chinese influence here in the region. So India would also be looking to continue position itself in that way. You also have to understand very quickly as I speak, just something that came to mind, a very popular Indian cricket tournament is currently going on in the country. That is the Indian Premier League which attracts, attracts hundreds of foreign players in the field of cricket. It's league cricket, it's very popular. You've got foreign coaches, foreign commentators who are here in the country. India just hosted a big media summit in the city of Mumbai, the financial capital, called the Wave Summit. So India's trying To position itself simultaneously as that country which has arrived on the global stage. It continues to be one of the fastest growing economies. So coupled with that, the military operations that we saw today, India would also look to try and limit that, to show itself or at least project itself as a responsible power here in the region.

[Oliver Conway]

Aruna Day, thank you, Liz. In your time in Pakistan, did people you spoke to, did they feel strongly about the issue of Kashmir?

[Lise Doucet]

I think Farhat and Aruna De Wu would agree with me that of all of the issues which divide India and Pakistan and have divided them since partition in 1947, Kashmir is the most emotional of all. It runs very, very deep. And now these passions are running at a very high level at a time where you have 24 hour news channels in both countries, passionate commentators, many on both sides, who would like to give a black eye to their neighbor. This will be the kind of pressure that will be behind the leaders of India and Pakistan when they try to make these fateful decisions. Pakistan is always looking over its shoulder at India. India is always looking over its shoulder. Not necessarily Pakistan, but it likes to say it looks over its shoulder at China, the two Asian giants, in a way of India kind of trying to diminish Pakistan and saying, you're not my equal. So there has been this tit for tat. Sometimes it's just in war of words. There have been efforts over the years depending who's in power. And in Pakistan, it's often the case, whoever's the military leader that they can actually have the ability to reach out to India. It often depends on who's in power in India as well, whether they want to try to try to heal these wounds. And there was a moment where a young generation of Indians and Pakistanis, why is our past ambushing our future? Why can't we move on? Because what a great region it was. Because with trade, you know, you sometimes have cultural delegations, journalists, human rights activists, civil society goes back and forth trying to say, listen, we're, we have more that unites us than divides us. But moments like this remind you about just how deep the animosities run. And they run through the beautiful rivers of Kashmir. May I just say you started off about Kashmir. When I first moved to the region, I was told Kashmir is paradise. And it is paradise. But it is a paradise now, which has been very bloodied.

[Oliver Conway]

Yeah. Why is it such an emotive issue? It can't just be because of its.

[Lise Doucet]

Natural beauty, I think. Well, it is because of the origins of it that under the rules of partition that roughly Muslim majority states went to Pakistan because it was a state established for Muslims under Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the first leader. And the majority Hindu states would go to India. But it was left to the Maharajas, the heads of these princely states, who took a rather radical decision to remain in India, not to join Pakistan. That immediately precipitated, as we already heard from Aruna Day and I remember over the years, that I don't know what the current, if you did, it would be impossible to hold a proper public opinion poll. But what percentage in Pakistan administered Kashmir and Indian administered Kashmir, how many want to be part of Pakistan, how many want to be part of India and how many want to be independent? There was a moment when Paul said most Kashmiris would want to be independent, but of course there's been generations after generations now. And in 2019 when Narendra Modi removed the semi autonomy, a state of Kashmir that bounded even more tightly into India. And so that UN resolution calling for Kashmiris to be allowed to choose their own future is being buried and buried under layers of dust and history.

[Oliver Conway]

And we've had some questions on social media that we're going to put to our chief international correspondent, Lise Doucet. Lise, first of all, who administers Kashmir?

[Lise Doucet]

That's a very good question. And I would urge our listeners and viewers to be very conscious of the language and conflicts. Language really, really matter. And when the BBC refers to on the Indian side, it's Indian administered Kashmir and Pakistan administered Kashmir. Pakistan would call it Azad Kashmir, which means free Kashmir. But there are two sides of Kashmir and both administered by these neighboring states, these rivals, longtime rivals as well. And India recently changed the status of what we call Indian administered Kashmir by removing its semi autonomous status, which has as a way to bind Kashmir more closely into India. Hence the anger of those on the Pakistani side who would like Kashmir to be united and difficult one.

[Oliver Conway]

Now, who started this conflict?

[Lise Doucet]

This is an explosive question. All I will say is that it goes back to the origins of the state of India and the state of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, which came out of the partition of the Indian subcontinent during British colonial rule when it was decided to set up a state for Muslims and a state for Hindus to try to deal with these tensions of these communities under the rules of partition. It was generally to try to divide them and it was very messy and bloody. Muslim majority parts of the Indian subcontinent would go to Pakistan, Hindu majority would go to India. But the question was left to the maharajas who were head of the princely states. And one maharaja decided that that his Muslim majority state would stay in India. And that has been an open wound ever since. And time and again, decade after decade, the question has come up, what would Kashmiris really like to do? Would they like to be part of India or Pakistan or would they like to be independent? And to this day, they have never been given that choice.

[Oliver Conway]

Now, looking at this latest conflict, Pakistan says it shot down five Indian warplanes. Is that true?

[Lise Doucet]

Well, as we are recording at it's 3 o' clock British Summer Time, BBC is still trying to confirm that claim, India denies it. There is a question as to whether or not Pakistan may have shot down drones rather than fighter jets. So far, at least at the time of recording, there hasn't. We haven't seen the evidence yet that five fighter Indian fighter jets were shot down. And I should also emphasize that as we're recording, the tensions haven't subsided. So a lot more couldn't still happen, sadly.

[Oliver Conway]

Lise Doucet, our chief international correspondence, thanks also to Aruna de Mukherjee in Delhi and Farhat Javed in Mirzafrabad. And that's all from us for now. But the Global News podcast will be back back very soon. Our studio producer was Chris Kuzaris and this edition was mixed and produced by Isabella Jewell and Holly Gibbs. Our editor was Paul Day. I'm Oliver Conway. Until next time. Goodbye.