Lebanon ceasefire Special

Summary

Global News Podcast: Lebanon Ceasefire Special – Detailed Summary

Release Date: November 26, 2024
Host: Valerie Sanderson
Producer: BBC World Service

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1. Introduction

In this special edition of the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service, host Valerie Sanderson delves into the pivotal developments surrounding the recently approved ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Amidst escalating tensions and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, this episode provides an in-depth analysis of the ceasefire's implications, the roles of key international players, and the profound impact on civilians in the region.

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2. Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Agreement

Announcement and Terms

On Tuesday, November 26, 2024, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially sanctioned a ceasefire with Hezbollah, slated to commence at 10:00 AM local time on Wednesday. This move follows weeks of intensified conflict, including recent Israeli airstrikes in Beirut.

Netanyahu emphasized the conditional nature of the ceasefire, stating:

“If Hezbollah breaks the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to resume the terrorist nonsense near the border, we will attack.” [00:24]

He further clarified that the duration of the ceasefire hinges on Hezbollah's adherence to the terms:

“The duration of the ceasefire will depend on what will happen in Lebanon. This is a complete understanding with the United States. We are continuing with our freedom of action.” [00:34]

Conditions and Enforcement

The ceasefire aims to:

• Halt all hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah.
• Prevent Hezbollah from rearming or launching attacks.
• Facilitate the safe return of civilians to their homes in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

Netanyahu outlined three primary objectives for the agreement:

1. Focus on the Iranian Threat: Allowing Israel to redirect attention towards Iran.
2. Military Resupply: Enabling the Israeli military to replenish weapons and supplies.
3. Separation of Conflicts: Decoupling the Lebanon conflict from the ongoing issues in Gaza.

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3. US Mediation and Support

President Biden’s Role

President Joe Biden played a crucial role in brokering the ceasefire, emphasizing the necessity of ending hostilities for lasting peace:

“Lasting security for the people of Israel and Lebanon cannot be achieved only on the battlefield.” [06:30]

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s Insights

At the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting in Italy, Secretary Antony Blinken highlighted the ceasefire’s significance:

“It will make a big difference in saving lives and livelihoods in Lebanon and in Israel.” [02:04]

Blinken further elaborated on the impact, stating:

“It will make a big difference in creating the conditions that will allow people to return to their homes safely.” [02:10]

He also addressed the broader regional implications:

“We would love it to be the case [that normality returns]. We have every hope that the citizens in Lebanon would want the same as us. They want peace, they want to go out.” [13:00]

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4. Reactions and Analysis

Frank Gardner’s Analysis from Jerusalem

Security correspondent Frank Gardner provided a comprehensive overview of the ceasefire's prospects and challenges:

“I think when it goes before the full cabinet tomorrow, it's likely to be a formality. So it's been essentially green lighted... The hard part is going to be the implementation and avoiding any infringements. This is going to be a very fragile deal.” [02:35]

Gardner drew parallels with the 2006 Lebanon-Israel War, noting the fragile nature of ceasefire agreements and Hezbollah's history of non-compliance:

“...Hezbollah filtered south, dug tunnels, built caves, stored weapons, and then fired them at Israel. Israel responded with devastating airstrikes...” [04:18]

Skepticism About Durability

A prevalent skepticism exists regarding the ceasefire’s longevity, given past precedents where Hezbollah violated agreements. Gardner remarked:

“A lot of people don't expect this to hold because we've been here before under slightly different circumstances.” [04:42]

Gideon Levy’s Commentary

Israeli political commentator Gideon Levy expressed cautious optimism while highlighting ongoing challenges:

“It's a very important agreement and it's really a positive development. But Gaza is the main story. Yeah.” [07:25]

Levy also critiqued Netanyahu's political maneuvers:

“Netanyahu has now a problem with his political base and therefore he's doing this enormous effort to convince everyone how big are the Israeli achievements, forgetting some price that Israel had paid...” [07:25]

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5. Human Impact

Lebanese Civilians in Beirut

Leena Sinjap, the BBC’s correspondent in Beirut, reported on the dire situation awaiting civilians:

“People in Beirut are really hopeful that this ceasefire will last and this will be the end of the war.” [10:16]

Despite the ceasefire, many residents remain hesitant to return:

“I'm advising people not to come back because it isn't going to be safe yet.” [04:49]

Northern Israel’s Displacement

Residents like Hillel and Sarah, displaced from northern Israel, shared their apprehensions:

“The real desire that I think people have is to return to a sense of normality so people can go about their businesses and to protect their businesses.” [13:00]

However, ongoing rocket fire and instability continue to breed uncertainty:

“We have every hope that the citizens in Lebanon would want the same as us. They want peace, they want to go out.” [14:11]

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6. Hezbollah's Position and Lebanese Politics

Support Levels Within Lebanon

Blinken addressed the complex sentiments in Lebanon towards Hezbollah:

“The majority of the people who've been affected are of the Shia community, but not necessarily supporters of Hezbollah... people became defendant and defiant in support of Hezbollah.” [11:48]

Despite criticism, many Lebanese civilians feel Hezbollah dragged the country into an unwanted war:

“It was the only party that decided on behalf of the country to drag it into this war, that nobody wanted.” [11:52]

Hezbollah’s Capabilities and Challenges

Jeremy Bone, the podcast's international editor, analyzed Hezbollah's weakened state:

“Hezbollah was the strongest part of Iran's strategy of forward defense through allies and proxies... Now that strategy is broken.” [17:11]

The faction's ability to sustain its operations remains uncertain, especially after the loss of key leaders like Hassan Nasrallah:

“Nasrallah himself has been assassinated.” [17:11]

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7. Political Implications

Netanyahu’s Political Challenges

The ceasefire puts Netanyahu in a delicate position. While it addresses immediate security concerns, it also raises questions about his handling of prolonged conflicts:

“He forgot some price that Israel had paid, including in turning into a para-state in those months of fighting both in Lebanon and in Gaza.” [07:25]

Comparison with Gaza Conflict

Jeremy Bone highlighted the distinct nature of the Gaza conflict compared to Lebanon:

“Gaza is different. The war there is about more than the security of the border and Israeli hostages. It's also about revenge, about Benjamin Netanyahu's political survival and his government's absolute rejection of Palestinian aspirations for independence.” [17:44]

This underscores the multifaceted challenges Israel faces on multiple fronts.

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8. Conclusion

The Lebanon Ceasefire Special provides a nuanced exploration of the fragile truce between Israel and Hezbollah. While the agreement marks a significant step towards de-escalation, historical precedents and ongoing regional tensions cast doubts on its durability. The ceasefire's success hinges on meticulous implementation and genuine commitments from all parties involved. Meanwhile, the human toll in Lebanon and northern Israel underscores the urgent need for lasting peace solutions. As international actors like the United States play mediating roles, the path forward remains uncertain, with the broader geopolitical landscape continuing to evolve.

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This summary captures the key discussions, insights, and perspectives presented in the podcast episode. For more detailed accounts and personal stories, tuning into the full episode is recommended.

Transcript

[Valerie Sanderson]

This is the global news podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Valerie Sanderson. And in this special edition on Tuesday 26 November, the headlines. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved a ceasefire with Hezbollah to begun on Wednesday after weeks of intensifying conflict. But.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

If Hezbollah breaks the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to resume the terrorist nonsense near the border, we will attack.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Earlier, Israel launched two fresh waves of air attacks on Beirut. At the White House, President Biden says the deal is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has approved a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The truce, which will be formally approved by the Israeli Cabinet, is expected to come force at 10am local time on Wednesday. Mr. Netanyahu said the deal would enable Israel to focus on the threat from Iran. But he said how long the ceasefire lasted would depend on the actions of the Lebanese group. His words are spoken here by translator. Tonight I will bring to the Cabinet's approval an outline for a ceasefire in Lebanon. The duration of the ceasefire will depend on what will happen in Lebanon. This is a complete understanding with the United States. We are continuing with our freedom of action. If Hezbollah tries to rearm or attack, we will strike back. If a rocket will be launched, if a tunnel will be dug, if a truck with arms will be brought in, we will strike. Against this background, the Israeli military had earlier launched at least two waves of airstrikes on what it said were Hezbollah targets in the capital, Beirut. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, who's at the G7 foreign ministers meeting in Italy, told reporters that a ceasef far would be very significant.

[Antony Blinken]

It will make a big difference in.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Saving lives and livelihoods in Lebanon and in Israel.

[Antony Blinken]

It will make a big difference in.

[Frank Gardner]

Creating the conditions that will allow people.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

To return to their homes safely in.

[Antony Blinken]

Northern Israel and in southern Lebanon.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

And I also believe that by de.

[Frank Gardner]

Escalating tensions in the region, it can.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Also help us to end the conflict in Gaza.

[Frank Gardner]

In particular, Hamas will know that it.

[Antony Blinken]

Can'T count on other fronts opening up in the war.

[Valerie Sanderson]

I spoke to our security correspondent Frank Gardner, who's in Jerusalem and asked him if this was a done deal.

[Frank Gardner]

I think when it goes before the full cabinet tomorrow, it's likely to be a formality. So it's been essentially green lighted, although they have stopped just short of saying so. But everyone assumes from the words of the Prime Minister, who has gone on record, gone on national tv, to say that it's happening. I think we can assume that from Israel's side it's agreed. And Lebanon's foreign minister has already said he supported it. So I think it's going to go ahead. The hard part is going to be the implementation. And avoiding any one word would be hiccups, but I think a stronger word, infringements. Because this is going to be a very fragile deal. A lot of people don't expect this to hold. Why? Because we've been here before under slightly different circumstances. But in the end of the 2006 Lebanon, Israel war, which was a pretty short war that ended after 33 days, that ended with a Security Council resolution that was supposed to keep Hezbollah north of The Litany River, 30 km north of the border, and that didn't happen. They filtered south, dug tunnels, built caves, stored weapons and then fired them at Israel. And Israel then ultimately responded, as they have now in this war, with devastating airstrikes on the city of Beirut and Baalbek, blowing up houses in south Lebanon, moving its forces into Lebanon. So there is a rather sort of weary view, I think in some quarters in Israel, particularly in the north, that this is merely kicking the can down the road. But you've got to start somewhere. And if the 60 day ceasefire holds, there are reasons for optimism. But I think there are plenty of people, certainly in the north of Israel, who've been saying we would have liked this to go on longer, to see Hezbollah defeat, you know, utterly defeated, so that it removes the threat more permanently. They think Hezbollah isn't going to abide by at least the spirit of this, that they are going to rearm and come back and hit northern Israel again.

[Valerie Sanderson]

We understand it's going to start being implemented at 10am local time on Wednesday. I mean, will people be able to return to their homes?

[Frank Gardner]

Well, that's up to them. The Israeli government can't force them to. I think a lot of people are going to be very hesitant about that. So, for example, the head of the town council for the town of Metallurgical, which is the northernmost town in Israel, right up on the Lebanese border, he has said, I'm advising people not to come back because it isn't going to be safe yet. Well, look, if 60 days passes and Israel withdraws, Hezbollah withdraws from south Lebanon and UNIFIL come back in in force and the Lebanese army is there in force and nothing happens, then I think we will see residents starting to return. But you know, the big fear that people have had, it's not just the rockets which have been landing on People's farms and kibbutzes and businesses and homes in the north of Israel. The big fear is that Hezbollah was planning something similar to what Hamas did in the south of Israel. In other words, puncturing that border fence, either with tunnels or a hole in the border fence, pouring in, kidnapping and killing and raping, as they did in the south in October 7th last year. That's the fear in that sense, I think, you know, some people have been quite cynical about it. But nevertheless, it's, you know, it must be a mercy for the people of Lebanon who have endured so much already in this short but extremely violent war that has cost nearly 4,000 lives, mostly on the Lebanese side.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Frank Gardner. Well, the ceasefire was brokered by the United States. And a short time ago, President Biden had this to say at the White House.

[Frank Gardner]

Lasting security for the people of Israel.

[Valerie Sanderson]

In Lebanon cannot be achieved only on the battlefield.

[Frank Gardner]

And that's why I directed my team.

[Valerie Sanderson]

To work with the governments of Israel and Lebanon to forge a ceasefire to.

[Antony Blinken]

Bring a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah to a close. Under the deal reached Today, effective at.

[Frank Gardner]

4:00Am tomorrow local time, the fighting across.

[Valerie Sanderson]

The Lebanese Israeli border will end. Will end. This is designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.

[Frank Gardner]

What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed. Well, I emphasize we'll not be allowed.

[Valerie Sanderson]

To threaten the security of Israel again, President Biden. Well, Gideon Levy is an Israeli political commentator and a columnist for the Haaretz newspaper. He gave this reaction to the ceasefire deal to the BBC's Ben Brown.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

I have no doubt it's going to be accepted because the powers who want it are much stronger than those who don't want it. Netanyahu has now a problem with his political base and therefore he's doing this enormous effort to convince everyone how big are the Israeli achievements, forgetting some price that Israel had paid, including in turning into a para state in those months of fighting both in Lebanon and in Gaza. But the main problem remains Gaza, and Gaza is not closer this evening through to a solution than before this agreement. So it's a very important agreement and it's really a positive development. But Gaza is the main story. Yeah.

[Frank Gardner]

And in fact, he did talk, Mr. Netanyahu, he gave three reasons for going along with a ceasefire now in Lebanon. He said, number one, to focus on the threat from Iran, number two, to allow our forces, our military, to refresh and replenish weapons supplies, and number three, to disconnect the two arenas of Lebanon and Gaza so that Hamas would be left alone. On the battlefield was what he said. Does all of that make sense to you?

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Yeah, but it shows that Israel was in a problem because he hinted also about shortage in ammunition and arms flow from the United States, which now will be renewed, which was another reason for Israel. It's very clear that the Americans didn't leave any choice for Netanyahu but to sign on this agreement. And he did well when he did it. But it's very clear, again, it was proven that when the United States really wants something from Israel, when the United States is really ready to take measures, then Israel has to obey.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Gideon Levy, as we said earlier on this podcast, throughout the days the region waited for the ceasefire announcement. Israel carried out a barrage of airstrikes on the capital, Beirut, and across southern Lebanon. The BBC spoke to Amy, who lives in Beirut.

[Antony Blinken]

We heard like two big strikes happening. I can see the black cloud and a lot of traffic at the moment, people getting stuck around the area. Also we hear, of course, the Red Cross going back and forth to rescue people. I believe these are very big explosions and then even shake the house. Yeah, I mean, the sound is really harsh, actually. It's being very stressful. We don't have a normal life. It's been months going through that. But we are hoping that this will bring us a long term peace.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Our correspondent in Beirut is Leena Sinjap.

[Antony Blinken]

There hasn't been any response yet or any official response yet. The government here has been talking about this ceasefire deal coming into effect soon. Everyone is anticipating and waiting for the details and for this to come into force. But while this waiting is happening, the city is really on high alert. There's a panic mood over the city. I can still hear the drones hovering over the sky. Some airstrikes still continue. And the fear is that from people, until this comes in force tomorrow on Wednesday at 10:00am, Beirut, the South and many other places may still be under strike until the start of the ceasefire deal.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Because this war has been devastating for Lebanon, hasn't it, Lina?

[Antony Blinken]

It was a shock for many people on many levels, although they've been talking about it, expecting it, but no one had expected this to be at this scale. And that's quick. First, a big blow to Hezbollah, but then a series of assassinations. Targets in the city, in the south, you know, more than 1 million displaced and, you know, infrastructure destroyed, people's homes and buildings and neighborhoods have been, you know, reduced to rubbles. So there's a lot to pick up after this period of time. And people are really hopeful that this ceasefire will Last and this will be the end of the war.

[Valerie Sanderson]

How much support does Hezbollah have still in Lebanon?

[Antony Blinken]

This is a very debatable question. The majority of the people who've affected and had to flee their homes and their towns are of the Shia community, but not necessarily of, you know, supporters to Hezbollah. But because of this, you know, what they see as brutal reaction, brutal attacks by the Israelis, people became defendant and defiant and in support of Hezbollah. Even those who are critic of Hezbollah in Lebanon, like, felt that this is the time to focus our, for, you know, criticism to Israel, not to Hezbollah. Although there are lots of speculations and criticism to Hezbollah as well within the Lebanese community that it was the only party that decided on behalf of the country to drag it into this war, that nobody wanted.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Lina Sinjab In Beirut, well across the border in northern Israel, the conflict has displaced tens of thousands of people from their homes. Hillel and Sarah both live in the north and they spoke to the BBC's Mark Lohan about what the cease could mean for them.

[Antony Blinken]

The real desire that I think people have is to return to a sense of normality so people can go about their businesses and to protect their businesses. I mean, we have family and friends in Shlomi. Some have been evacuated, some have remained. Shlomi is much closer to the border and their town is like a ghost town.

[Frank Gardner]

Well, you talk about that sense of normality, Sarah, do you believe that will.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Be achieved by this ceasefire deal that is being discussed?

[Antony Blinken]

We would love it to be the case. We have every face that the citizens in Lebanon would want the same as us. They want peace, they want to go out. But unfortunately, the citizens of Lebanon are not in charge. If Hezbollah is anything to go by, we are very cautious about what this means, but we don't know what's going to happen in 60 days. Are they going to be able to re arm? But we really don't know the full extent of Hezbollah's capabilities, whether Iran is still going to be able to fund it and keep the terror going.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Hillel, are you optimistic about the ceasefire?

[Frank Gardner]

To be honest, as a very moderate individual, in terms of my political views, given the situation, I don't. I don't hold out much hope, unfortunately, for a ceasefire. We all want to see an end to the fighting. We want to see Lebanese civilians being able to go back to life as normal Israeli citizens going back to life as normal and peace. When you have an organization like Hezbollah, who's basically holding Lebanon hostage at this point, I think Israel needs to take a very, very hard line against Hezbollah, unfortunately, like a very. A very strong military response. This is a war with an organization that does not recognize the legitimacy of Israel's right to exist and does not care about its own civilians, let alone Israeli citizens.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Sarah, do you believe that your friends and colleagues who have evacuated will come back if there is a ceasefire?

[Antony Blinken]

Sorry, we have a siren. We have to. And we're just going to go into my protected space. Sorry, we're under rocket fire.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Just tell me, just explain what you've had to do there, what the protected space is.

[Antony Blinken]

There's rocket fire in the area and we've just entered our safe space, our communal safe space with our dogs and our neighbors.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Sarah and Hillel ending that report as they shelter from Hezbollah rocket fire just before the announcement of a ceasefire deal. Well, let's end this podcast with our international editor, Jeremy Bone.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

A ceasefire cannot come quickly enough for all parties inside Lebanon. Thousands of innocent Lebanese civilians have been killed by Israel. It strikes destroyed the homes of tens of thousands of others. Hezbollah's surviving leaders and their patrons in Iran want a ceasefire, too. Hezbollah was designed to deter Israel not just from attacking Lebanon, but also from attacking Iran. But before Hezbollah could use the most powerful weapons Iran had provided, Israel delivered a series of devastating blows to its leadership and its arsenal. Hezbollah is still firing into Israel and fighting the Israeli invasion. But the organization built and led by Hassan Nasrallah failed to recognize that the mindset and determination in Israel changed profoundly after the Hamas attacks on 7 October last year. Nasrallah himself has been assassinated. Hezbollah was the strongest part of Iran's strategy of forward defense through allies and proxies, known as the axis of resistance. Now that strategy is broken. A ceasefire in Lebanon is not necessarily a precursor to one in Gaza. Israel has a more limited agenda in Lebanon. It wants to push Hezbollah back from its northern border to damage Iran indirectly and to allow civilians to return to border towns. President elect Trump has also indicated that he wants a ceasefire in Lebanon before he takes office in the United States. Gaza is different. The war there is about more than the security of the border and Israeli hostages. It's also about revenge, about Benjamin Netanyahu's political survival and his government's absolute rejection of Palestinian aspirations for independence.

[Valerie Sanderson]

Jeremy Byrne. And that's it from us for now. But there'll be a new edition of the Global News podcast later. If you want to comment on this podcast or the topics covered in it, send us an email. The address is globalpodcastbc.co.uk you can also find us on X globalnewspod. This edition was mixed by Caroline Driscoll. The producer was Liam McSheffrey. The editor is Karen Martin. I'm Valerie Sanderson. Until next time.

[Frank Gardner]

Bye.