Syria special

Summary

Global News Podcast: Syria Special Summary

Release Date: December 7, 2024
Host: Oliver Conway
Source: BBC World Service

The BBC World Service's Global News Podcast featured a special edition focusing on the escalating crisis in Syria. Hosted by Oliver Conway, the episode delved into the rapid advancements of rebel forces toward Damascus, the implications for President Bashar al-Assad's regime, and the diminishing support from key allies Russia and Iran. Below is a detailed summary of the discussions, insights, and analyses presented during the episode.

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1. Escalation of Rebel Forces Surrounding Damascus

At 00:34, Oliver Conway sets the stage by highlighting the significant momentum of rebel groups closing in on Syria's capital, Damascus, from both the north and south. Despite government claims of a robust defensive perimeter, insurgent forces have reportedly advanced to within 10 kilometers of the city, stirring widespread protests in the suburbs.

Key Points:

• Rebel Groups: Predominantly Islamist insurgents from the HTS group, an offshoot of Al-Qaeda, are spearheading the advance.
• Strategic Locations: Recent captures include Aleppo and Hama, with Homs being the next critical target due to its strategic linkage to the Alawite heartland on the Mediterranean coast.
• Civil Unrest: Protests in Damascus suburbs include acts of defiance such as toppling statues of Assad’s late father and attacking presidential portraits.

Notable Quote:

“Amid that anger from ordinary people, government forces are on the back foot.” — Oliver Conway [00:34]

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2. On-the-Ground Reports from Lina Sinjab, Beirut

Correspondent Lina Sinjab provides an in-depth analysis from Beirut at 03:07, detailing the rebels' rapid encirclement of Damascus and the resultant civilian anxieties.

Key Insights:

• Economic Strain: The Syrian pound has devalued sharply, leading to scarcity in basic commodities and closed marketplaces.
• Public Sentiment: Residents express fear over an uncertain future, with divisions in opinion regarding Assad’s potential resignation.
• Government Defense Efforts: Despite claims of bolstering defenses, the Syrian army struggles to halt the rebels’ progress.

Notable Quote:

“People are worried, are watching with cautiousness. Many people are still staying home.” — Lina Sinjab [03:07]

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3. Diminishing Support from Russia and Iran

At 06:38, Lina Sinjab discusses the weakening stance of Assad’s long-time allies, Russia and Iran, amid the advancing rebel forces.

Key Points:

• Iranian Withdrawal: Reports indicate Iran is evacuating non-essential personnel and families from Syria, signaling a potential retreat.
• Hezbollah’s Decline: Hezbollah forces are reportedly weakened in Lebanon, limiting their support capabilities in Syria.
• Russian Priorities: Russia remains preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine and expresses frustration over Assad’s reluctance to engage in peace talks with Turkey.

Notable Quote:

“The rebels are not united. There were divisions before,” — Jackie Leonard [11:55]

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4. Southern Front and Strategic Positions with Mahmoud Ali Hamad

BBC Arabic correspondent Mahmoud Ali Hamad provides perspectives from Dara, a pivotal southern region, at 08:04.

Insights:

• Safe Corridor: A secure passage has facilitated rebel forces' unimpeded movement toward Damascus.
• Strategic Takeovers: The seizure of T4 airport, a crucial military hub previously under Russian control, has significantly weakened the regime’s defensive capabilities.
• Linking Fronts: Rebels aim to connect northern and southern advances to consolidate their hold on Damascus.

Notable Quote:

“This is probably the easiest takeover of a city in modern history.” — Mahmoud Ali Hamad [08:22]

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5. Analysis of Government Control and Assad's Position

Middle East regional editor Sebastian Arsha, along with host Jackie Leonard, explores the current state of government control and the resilience of Assad’s regime.

Discussion Points:

• Core Loyalists: The survival of Assad is increasingly dependent on a dwindling circle of loyal elites and militias.
• Public Perception: State media efforts to project strength contrast sharply with the reality of rapid rebel advances.
• Potential Leadership Outcomes: Speculations include Assad remaining for a transitional period before possibly stepping down, though uncertainty remains high.

Notable Quote:

“If they go, yes, they've got money, yes, they can go outside, but I mean, that could be frozen.” — Jackie Leonard [11:55]

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6. International Diplomatic Efforts and Future Prospects

Despite ongoing talks in Doha involving Turkey, Russia, and Iran, there is skepticism about their effectiveness in stemming the rebel tide. The episode underscores the gap between diplomatic rhetoric and the tangible shifts on the ground.

Key Considerations:

• Peace Roadmap: Unconfirmed leaks suggest a potential six-month extension for Assad, transitioning power to an interim government.
• Reality vs. Rhetoric: Rapid rebel advancements challenge the feasibility of negotiated settlements, raising doubts about the alliances’ capacity to salvage the regime.

Notable Quote:

“From the look of it, it is actually very Bad situation to be in for the Syrian regime.” — Lina Sinjab [06:38]

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7. Conclusion and Outlook

Oliver Conway concludes the special edition by emphasizing the unprecedented speed of developments in Syria, suggesting that traditional power structures may be on the verge of collapse. The episode promises further updates as the situation evolves.

Final Remarks:

“It feels like the rapidity of this, as Lina was saying, is so intense that it can't be withstood.” — Jackie Leonard [11:55]

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This comprehensive overview provided by the Global News Podcast underscores a critical juncture in the Syrian conflict, highlighting the fragility of Assad’s hold on power and the potential for significant geopolitical shifts in the region.

Transcript

[Jackie Leonard]

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Hello, Jackie Leonard here from the Global News Podcast. Did you know there is an easy way to get new episodes automatically? Whether it's the Global News Podcast or indeed any of your other favourite BBC World Service podcasts, just find the show on your podcast app and then just click Follow or Subscribe. And if you switch on notifications, you'll get a reminder too. It's that easy. Follow or subscribe and never miss an episode.

[Oliver Conway]

You're listening to a special edition of the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. Hello, I'm Oliver Conway. We're recording this at 18 hours GMT on Saturday, 7 December. Rebels in Syria are bearing down on the capital Damascus, from the north and south. Government forces say they've put a strong cordon around the city, but the insurgents are reported to have closed to within 10km and there have been protests in the suburbs. We'll ask, is this the end for President Assad or can his Russian and Iranian allies save him once again? Ever since the uprising sparked by the Arab Spring nearly 14 years ago, the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad has maintained his grip on power. He's faced opposition from pro democracy activists, various jihadist groups, including Al Qaeda and ISIS and other militants. But with the help of his allies from Russia and Iran and a devastating bombing campaign, he held on. For the past few years, there has been an uneasy stalemate. But now, after a lightning advance by Islamist insurgents, there are real questions over whether President Assad can survive. On the outskirts of the capital itself, there have been reports of protests, footage on social media of demonstrators toppling a statue of President Assad's late father Hafez, in a Damascus suburb. Other videos showed portraits of the president himself being attacked and the Syrian flag being pulled down at a busy intersection just eight kilometres from the city centre. Amid that anger from ordinary people, government forces are on the back foot. In central, southern and eastern Syria, rebels from the south are said to be just 10 kilometers from Damascus. In the east, the Kurds took control as the authorities pulled out. But the main threat has come through the heart of the country, from Islamist insurgents of the HTS group, which arose out of the Syrian branch of Al Qaeda. After taking Aleppo and Hama, they are now moving into Homs, a strategic city that links the capital to the Assad Alawite heartland on the Mediterranean coast. Well, for the latest, I'm joined by our Middle east correspondent, Lina Sinjab in Beirut. Lina, tell us about the threat to Damascus.

[Lina Sinjab]

The rebels are Advancing in quick pace. We're hearing reports that they're really surrounding Damascus from different parts. They certainly came from the south, from Dara and other parts of the south approaching the city, something that the government in Damascus is still denying. But talking to residents in Damascus, in the capital itself, people are worried, are watching with cautiousness. Many people are still staying home. The markets, shops are closed, Syrian pound devaluated, Basic commodities are scarce. So it's really a chaotic scene, and people are worried. They feel things will not go back the same at all after. But what's going to happen after? Nobody knows. Some reports and some people suggesting Assad should go, others are saying that he's staying put and he's going to defend until the last minute. And in between the two versions of the story, people are worried about violence erupting mainly by the government, so that they protect their positions.

[Oliver Conway]

Yeah. The Syrian army says it is boosting its defenses around Damascus, but so far they haven't been able to slow the advances, certainly so.

[Lina Sinjab]

And we're also hearing reports from Homs that the rebels are advancing. And Homs was like a very crucial city for the regime because they thought if they control Homs, they control the highway to Damascus, they control their links to the coastal cities. And if Homs falls, it means that the roads are cut to the coastal sides. And that's where many of the Alawite supporters of President Bashar Al Assad are located. I'm also hearing that many of the Alawites who are in Damascus are worried. Some have already fled to the coastal cities. Things are really hotting up on the ground. While meetings are ongoing in Doha between the Turks, the Russians and the Iranians, there are some talks about a peace roadmap that should be followed. We're hearing some leaks that President Assad may stay for six months in power and hand over power to an interim government to be elected. But all this is hard to confirm now, as we have to see what the president comes out and speak about officially to his own people, something that he hasn't done yet.

[Oliver Conway]

Yeah. And looking at that central city of Homs that you mentioned, a rebel commander say they've overrun an army camp there and a string of villages. Are government forces putting up a defense?

[Lina Sinjab]

They have been putting up some defense until this morning. I've been talking to people inside Homs, some of the Alawites family who opposed Assad, but secretly and decided to stay. They're hearing some shooting, some fighting, sometimes sporadic artillery shelling. But they also know that the rebels have Advanced. There is communication going on between Alawites outside and those who decided to stay inside. They are communicating also with the rebels to give assurances to the Alawites who stayed. And I've also heard from them that there are a couple of towns where the rebels have entered, where there are Alawites living there. No attacks to civilians, no records of any violations against civilians from the Alawites. So things are moving so fast to be able to grasp what's going to happen next. But obviously Assad has lost, you know, many cities and the final call is actually in Damascus. What happens in Damascus will decide the fate of the coastal cities where the Alawites are based.

[Oliver Conway]

And briefly, he was saved before by his allies Russia and Iran. Any sign of them that has changed?

[Lina Sinjab]

I think the whole operation started at the moment the rebels have seized because Iran and Hezbollah are weakened. Weakened in Lebanon, weakened in Syria with continuous Israeli airstrikes against their military bases, their weapons preventing them from crossing into Lebanon and sending weapons into Lebanon. And now we've heard reports that Iran Iranians have ordered all their non essential personnel and families to leave. We've had reports about them leaving via airport in Damascus and via Lebanon. Hezbollah is already weakened in Lebanon. And the few fighters who remain in Syria, we hearing reports that they are in Kusair, close to the border between Syria and Lebanon. Russia is very busy with Ukraine, but also upset with Assad that they have been asking him for sitting down on the table with the Turks and he has been refusing. So it seems that the table has changed. But we just have to wait to see what officially is going to come out as what's going to happen. Many people I speak to on the ground, they say the distance is big between what the politicians are talking about in these meetings and the reality on the ground with the fast advancement of the rebels.

[Oliver Conway]

Lina, many thanks indeed, Lina Sinjab from Lebanon. Well, let's talk now to Mahmoud Ali Hamad from BBC Arabic. We were talking briefly about the south. Now you are from Dara, which was one of the centers of the original protest movement and that has fallen to opposition forces. What are you hearing from there?

[Mahmoud Ali Hamad]

What we are hearing is that the whole province has been left to the rebels. There's been a safe corridor that ensured those forces would reach Damascus with no issues. So this is probably the easiest takeover of a city in modern history.

[Oliver Conway]

And are they the forces who are now pushing up towards Damascus?

[Mahmoud Ali Hamad]

No, I think so far we are ignoring the fact that the borders with Jordan that's down south is quite different from what we are witnessing on the Turkish borders where there is lines of logistical support coming through the borders and the freedom of movement that the fighters there enjoy. This cannot be said about Daraa. Daraa's borders are under the direct control of the Jordanian and the coalition forces led by the United States. And there's a military base in the Tanf which is very close to Daraa province. So I think at this point the rebels in the south are trying to stabilize the front, maybe hoping, if you think about the military objective is to link with the rebels forces coming from the north. We've heard about the takeover of the T4 airport, a very important military airport to the Syrian regime and was to the Russian up until 2018 before they withdrew their ass from there to send to Ukraine. So that airport to the east of the capital has been taken over. So now the capital is vulnerable from the north and the east. The south now is just waiting to create that linkage where they can actually get more ammunitions, more military hardware if they are ever going to have a chance of advancing into the capital. We know that the capital is not really controlled by the army itself, the traditional regular Syrian army. There are still some Iranian allied militias and from the Iraqi militias are stationed in very important intersections in the capital, guarding the palaces, guarding sensitive institutions such as the Syrian television, state television, and there is the security compounds that have traditionally ruled the city. So now the regular forces that have pulled back from Homs, they are trying to concentrate their forces south of Jaydet Tartuz, which is the northern gate to the capital. And we have heard from our contacts in Damascus, people who live actually less than 2km away from Jayt Artuz. And they are telling us that they can hear the fighting approaching the city, which is creating a sense of apprehension. But there's no lawlessness. So far things seem to have gone to plan or even better than what's been planned by the rebels, the regime. If you watch what they are putting on social media or on state national tv, I mean, it has become a pastime entertainment for me to watch the Syrian state TV in the last 48 and 72 hours. And it's quite bizarre. It's like they are living in a parallel world. And obviously you understand why they're putting out such statements. It's because the only thing that is left for them is to reassure that population of the capital that we are still here, it's not over yet. And maybe they are trying to buy time because from the look of it, it is actually very Bad situation to be in for the Syrian regime.

[Oliver Conway]

Mahmoud Ali Hamad of BBC Arabic well, we're also joined by our Middle east regional editor Sebastian Arsha said there are all these different groups approaching Damascus from the north and from the south. They've lost control in the east. I mean, what does the government still control in Syria?

[Jackie Leonard]

We don't know 100%. I mean, I think as Mahmoud was saying there, I mean the real key is the hard core Praetorian Guard essentially around President Assad. Is that going to hold? I mean, forget about the government forces. I think that is an issue that's finished essentially. They haven't shown any appetite for the battle in any of the places so far, whether it's the south, the east or the north. But you would think there are very, very strong vested interests obviously that have developed over the war that already existed, but even more so, which are allied both to the economic and the military support President Assad and it's basically, are they going to stage a fight? Do they think there's still something to fight for or are they basically going to get out while they still can? And President Assad, we don't know if he's there. We don't know if he's not. I mean, there are rumors flying around. We had the President's office saying that he is denying rumors that he'd left, saying that essentially he is about his official business. I would say that looking at what happened in the past, I mean, there were moments like in 2014, 2015, when it looked like President Assad was about to lose before the Russians came in and he didn't leave then. I would say that going by that pattern, it may well be that President Assad is still there. He is still perhaps holding to a belief, but there is this circle of steel as the interior Minister was talking about. Mahmoud says that it's been almost like a fantasyland hearing about that, that they're still using those words and there may be some reality to that still. I mean, the real, as I say, hardcore that has surrounded President Assad. We do not know if that is broken yet. And there may be a sense that they feel they can hold out and if they can buy time again, as Mahmoud said, that could change the situation. The rebels are not united. There were divisions before. It wasn't just for Russian and Iranian support. It was the fact that the rebels were fighting amongst each other, that they didn't get support from outside, et cetera, et cetera. All of that could still be holding up hope for President Assad and the elite around him that they can stay the course and they've got a huge amount to lose. If they go, yes, they've got money, yes, they can go outside, but I mean, that could be frozen. There can be all sorts of issues. So I think they will hold on for as long as they believe that there is a chance. And I don't think they might have reached that stage yet where they feel the final chance is snuffed even as we watch from outside. And it feels like the rapidity of this, as Lina was saying, is so intense that it can't be withstood.

[Oliver Conway]

And that is all from us for now, but we'll have an update in our regular edition of the Global News Podcast in a couple of hours. This special was mixed by Derek Clarke and produced by Nicky Verico. Our editor's Karen Martin. I'm Oliver Conway for now. Goodbye.

[Jackie Leonard]

Hello. Jackie Leonard here from the Global News Podcast. Did you know there is an easy way to get new episodes automatically? Whether it's the Global News Podcast or indeed any of your other favourite BBC World Service podcasts. Just find the show on your podcast app up and then just click Follow or Subscribe. And if you switch on notifications, you'll get a reminder too. It's that easy. Follow or subscribe and never miss an episode.