
Trump's return to the White House is seen as a potential threat to European security
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Katya Adler
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Alex Ritson
Hello, this is the Global News Podcast from the BBC World Service. I'm Alex Ritson with your weekly bonus from the Global Story, which brings you a single story with depth and insight from the BBC's best journalists. There's a new episode every weekday. Just search for the Global Story wherever you get your pods and be sure to subscribe so you don't miss a single episode. Here's my colleague, Katya Adler.
Jonathan Beale
The re election of Donald Trump marks what's perhaps the most uncertain moment in the history of the NATO military alliance. Well, that is since the last time he was president. But that was before large scale warfare returned to Europe with Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine, aided militarily and otherwise by North Korea, Iran and China. NATO is a transatlantic military alliance and it's largely funded by the United States. But America first. Donald Trump thinks it's a very bad deal.
Donald Trump
NATO was busted until I came along. I said, everybody's going to pay. They said, well, if we don't pay, are you still going to protect us? I said, absolutely not.
Jonathan Beale
With Ukraine on the back foot against Moscow and European security in jeopardy, NATO has got a new chief, Mark Rutter, who's been dubbed the Trump Whisperer. In his first major speech in his new job, he's called for NATO members to switch to a wartime mindset and seriously boost defence spending. Can he save NATO by persuading the incoming US President to stay on board? With me Today is the BBC's defence correspondent, Jonathan Beale. Hi, Jonathan.
Katya Adler
Hi, Katya. From a cold, a very cold Dnipro here in eastern Ukraine.
Jonathan Beale
Jonathan, where you are in Ukraine, I mean, it's a very, very tense situation. I mean, it's, we're talking about survival here. So are people paying attention to a new Secretary General of NATO or a speech he might choose to give?
Katya Adler
Well, Ukraine is watching closely. It's watching closely because all its weapons, pretty much all the ammunition it's getting at the moment is coming from NATO members in Europe. And also the us, obviously, which is its biggest supplier, is also watching closely because Ukraine has made very clear it wants to be a member of NATO. It wants the security guarantees that NATO membership gives. So it's watching what Mark Rutter, NATO Secretary General, is saying very closely, and it's still hoping that somehow it will be eventually a member of NATO.
Jonathan Beale
Yes, because there's a lot of talk right now, isn't there, about possible ceasefires? We'll talk about Donald Trump returning to the White House in a minute and what that could mean. And Ukraine is insisting on security guarantees. It believes that comes from NATO. I mean, Jonathan, just tell us a little bit a potted history about NATO. It was born after the Second World War, wasn't it?
Katya Adler
Yep, born after the Second World War. It is always important to say that NATO is a defensive alliance. That's what it says it is. But it was created because of the concerns of the expanding Soviet empire. It is there to deter any aggressor. And, of course, key to the whole NATO membership is Article 5, which essentially says an attack on one ally or an attack on one member is interpreted as an attack on all. So it gives those countries that are members of the alliance some security guarantees, the kind of security guarantees, obviously, that Ukraine would like as well.
Jonathan Beale
And I mean, when we talk about the allies, I mean, it's a transatlantic military alliance, mainly European, but we have Canada and, of course, the United States, which, and we'll get to this in a moment, of course, foots most of the bill.
Katya Adler
The US is one of the largest contributors, about 15% of the NATO budget. But it is the military clout of America that counts for NATO, in the sense that the US is the largest military in the world. It is the country that spends most on defense, and it provides, most importantly for NATO, the security of that nuclear umbrella. Members of NATO rely mainly on the us. Of course, the UK has nuclear weapons, too, France does, but very much sees theirs as independent to the NATO alliance. But it relies on America for that security guarantee. So without America, NATO would be a shadow of what it is at the moment. At any one given time, There are between 50 to 100,000 U.S. military personnel stationed in Europe. Of course, aircraft carriers come from time to time, but then on top of that, there is a commitment for 800,000 US military personnel to come to NATO's defence if required.
Jonathan Beale
And you say it's a defense alliance. That's why there's this quite a complicated dance that US journalists have to make Isn't there, Jonathan, that when we say NATO is providing military support to Ukraine, that would be incorrect? It's NATO member states providing support. NATO itself can't do that directly.
Katya Adler
No. So NATO has tried to coordinate and is coordinating some of that military support, but NATO itself as an organization does not have arms factories, does not produce weapons, and it is reliant on member states to actually contribute to Ukraine directly. And it's always worth remembering that not every NATO member is providing weapons. So, for example, Hungary, which has always been an awkward member, is against supplying weapons to Ukraine. But Ukraine depends wholly on NATO allies to keep that ammunition flowing, to keep those weapons flowing.
Jonathan Beale
And if we listen though, to Vladimir Putin, he does not see NATO as a defensive alliance. He sees it as an offensive alliance and says there's been steady creep towards the east, towards Russia, and that's why he was forced to take action in Ukraine.
Katya Adler
We told them this NATO expansion, don't do it, it violates our security. Still, they did it. Is that just. There is no justice here and we want to change that and will achieve it.
Jonathan Beale
Sometimes with information warfare going on all around Europe, you do feel a certain sympathy for that argument in parts of Europe. Italy, I've come across it. In Germany, I've come across it.
Katya Adler
There may be some sympathy with President Putin's argument about NATO expanding on his border. The first George Bush presidency, there's a suggestion Russia received private assurances that NATO wouldn't expand eastwards to include countries like the Baltic states. That is something that's disputed, but it is important for NATO to always stress that it is a defensive alliance and it is responding to what he is doing in Ukraine. You know, there were countries outside the NATO alliance, and I'm talking about Sweden and Finland, who have now joined specifically because they feel that Russia's war in Ukraine puts them under threat. So that is their argument. And they do not buy this argument that President Putin should be dictating the terms as to which countries can join. That is something they say that individual countries should be allowed, sovereign nations be allowed to decide for themselves.
Jonathan Beale
Which brings us back to where you are now in Ukraine wants so much to be innate. And it says that, it says that it doesn't accept that it can't join NATO, even if Russia is occupying part of the country. Because when Germany was split east and west after the Second World War, under communism in the east and the Western democracy, the west was allowed to join NATO. So Ukraine says it should be allowed to do that as well. There are voices in Europe who say, well, that will just encourage Vladimir Putin to attack more in Ukraine and elsewhere. In Ukraine, how does it feel where you are?
Katya Adler
There's certain questions as to why NATO hasn't done more. Here in Ukraine, for example, one of the early cries was, NATO, close the skies. Do not let Russia fire missiles or operate jets over Ukrainian airspace. Why doesn't NATO just come in and provide air cover for Ukraine? That has not happened and that will not happen. You've got to remember that NATO is an alliance that works on consensus. So if one country objects to something, then they can't do it. And that is, in a sense, NATO's weakness, that it is reliant on all members agreeing to do something to help another nation. Any attempts at Ukrainian membership could be vetoed by one country or a few countries. And that is why I think it's highly unlikely that NATO will accept Ukraine as a member of the alliance anytime soon. Because there are, you know, significant countries, including the US Under Donald Trump, which would not countenance the idea of Ukraine joining NATO.
Jonathan Beale
And that is looking to the future whether there could be NATO membership for Ukraine. What about present? Donald Trump is returning to the White House. He was no NATO fan. Earlier this year, he said he would encourage Russia to attack NATO members that don't pay their way.
Donald Trump
They asked me that question. One of the presidents of a big countries stood up, said, well, sir, if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said, you didn't pay, you're delinquent. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.
Jonathan Beale
How worried should NATO be? Because Mark Rutter brushed off suggestions that Donald Trump might walk out the NATO door?
Katya Adler
So I think there are certain things that alarm European countries from Donald Trump that he said on the campaign trail, as you said, that if you don't pay your way, you don't get protection. Russia can do what the hell it likes to those countries that don't pay their way. There's a misunderstanding as far as Donald Trump is concerned about what NATO is. He thinks it's like a club and you pay a membership fee. NATO is not that it sets goals as to how much they should spend on defense, but there is no punishment if a country doesn't spend that on defence. And as we know, there are countries in the NATO alliance who do not spend 2%, the goal it set out in 2014, on their military. I think it's Important to say also that Donald Trump is not the first president, when he was president in 2018, who have criticized NATO allies for essentially just relying on the US freeloading on the US for their own defences. And that was particularly true of after the Cold War. The countries stopped spending much on defense, reduced the size of their military capabilities and their militaries. That is slowly changing, but it's been a constant refrain from the US that they are paying for Europe's security.
Jonathan Beale
So we've looked at what's going on in Ukraine and NATO's role. Will Donald Trump stay the course? And could Europe go alone in terms of defence? If it has to?
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Jonathan Beale
You're listening to the Global Story. This is the Global Story. We bring you One Beef International five days a weekday. Follow or subscribe wherever you get. With me is Jonathan Beale. With me, Jonathan Beale. How like Secretary General. How likely is it he will be on board? He does have a nickname as the Trump. He certainly wasn't chosen as a new Secretary General. And because the Netherlands become a Prime minister of the Netherlands has a good track record in defense because it was very known to be low when he was prime minister for four years. When he was prime minister for 10 years.
Katya Adler
Yeah, it took essentially 10 years for the Netherlands when Mark Rutter was the Prime Minister of the Netherlands to reach that 2% target. Even he admits that it took them too long now, and to some, it does seem a bit rich for him to preach this message of spend more on defence when he was so slow to do it himself. But I think Mark Rutter does have a number of things going his way and that is, as you say, a personal relationship with Donald Trump. So when Donald Trump was criticizing European countries in 2018, not spending enough on defence, he wasn't pointing the finger at Mark Rutter, even though he had every right to. He's pointing the finger mostly at Germany. And Mark Rutte was very careful when he was the Prime Minister of the Netherlands to give credit to Donald Trump for forcing countries to spend more on defense of that 2018 NATO summit. And that has played dividends in terms of his personal relationship with Donald Trump. He's already gone as NATO's Secretary General to have a private meeting with Donald Trump at Mar a Lago. So, you know, there is some investment in their personal relationship.
Jonathan Beale
So we're talking about Mark Griffin. So we're talking about Mark, NATO Secretary General. He gave his big first speech just the other day here in Brussels and I sat down with him straight off, sat down with him straight off. The United States, Donald Trump, he says Europe has to pay its way. Are you worried if Europe doesn't up its spending that he could turn his back on this transatlantic alliance but we.
Mark Rutte
Will spend more because otherwise he might.
Jonathan Beale
Turn his back, though.
Mark Rutte
No, I'm not, because it won't come to that. And I don't want to spend more because of Donald Trump. So he's right that we have to spend more. Absolutely. He was right. He's still right. But when you look at the facts, we should not need Donald Trump to decide to spend more on defense. We have to do it because it is on our interest.
Jonathan Beale
I noticed when I spoke, I noticed when I spoke to Mark, he was using a very similar flattery to Donald Trump, the same flattery that he used in 2018. You're right, Donald. Right. You're right. We do, we do a lot more on defense. So even though he was speaking to Europeans here in Brussels, actually, I felt a lot of this message was directed towards the direct states, towards the incoming president. So there's flattery. And also the fact that when he was at Trump mar a logo just at the end of November, he was also using that tactic. Donald Trump wanting to be on top of things, a winner to put America winners. And he was saying, you know, what's happening in Ukraine, what's happening in Ukraine isn't just about Russia, Ukraine, because if there's a bad piece of deal for Ukraine in here, then there's going to be a massive end between Russia, North Korea, China and Iran as well. And so he's hoping the United States that it's the United States interest to remain invested in European security. Donald Trump be persuaded?
Katya Adler
Donald Trump well, yeah, he writes a point out that Marc Ritter is playing essentially to Donald Trump's ego and he has given him the credit for forcing European countries to increase defense spending when the reality probably is that European countries suddenly increased defence spending, most of them after Russia's full scale invasion. So he's essentially giving Credit, where you could debate credit is not due. I think it is important though that what Mark Rutter is doing is also what to some extent President Zelenskyy is doing. Ukraine here knows that things could change dramatically under a Donald Trump presidency. That they could have some of their military aid withdrawn, if not all of it. That there could be peace negotiations or attempts at peace negotiations. And they want to see Donald Trump as a winner too. And part of their calculus is the same as Mark Rutter's calculus, that you appeal to Donald Trump's ego. You tell him that it is his strength that can resolve this crisis and it is making Ukraine strong and keeping it strong that will help resolve this crisis. You want to tell him that he is in a position of power where he can decide the future. And if he wants to win, really win, then that means taking on Vladimir Putin and not allowing him to win this war.
Jonathan Beale
For many in Europe, the war does seem far away. And they don't want, they don't want reduced spending on Social Security, for example, in order to give more, in order to Europe is short sighted because there's not only a threat, not only, but also conventional, but also convention. Four or five years time. They could be long range missiles from Russia, from Russia to the United Kingdom into the Hague, in the Netherlands. How likely is it that, that Russia under Vladimir Putin would roll the tanks into a NATO member state like Poland compared to disinformation, misinformation, cyber attacks or critical infrastructure like those Internet cables for financial transactions.
Mark Rutte
But both, both are true. He did roll his tanks into Ukraine. Why couldn't he roll his tanks into the United Kingdom? Yeah, not a NATO member state. But at the same time, if NATO is not in four or five years able to keep up the deterrence, which is necessary to make sure that Putin will not do that, why would he not roll his tanks in to Poland or fly out his missiles to the United Kingdom or to the Hague? So there is a risk, and you are right also that already at this moment we are faced with, and I hate this word hybrid, but when you look at cyber attacks, look what happens in the UK with assassination attempts in Salisbury. When you look at sabotage, what he is doing with jamming in the Baltics of commercial flights, it is presenting a big risk. So that's happening already.
Jonathan Beale
Do you see that as credible or is this scary? Do you see that as credible or is this scary?
Katya Adler
He's not alone in talking about the dangers of this conflict widening to other European countries. We've heard similar from Boris Pistorius the German Defense Minister. We've had senior British military commanders, senior NATO commanders as well, warning that Russia does not see the end of its goals in defeating Ukraine, which it clearly wants to do, and which is swallowing up all its resources and finances and time at the moment. But that will not be the end of it is the warning. So I don't think you should see what Mark Rutter is saying in isolation, because many other people are saying it, and I think that they're saying it and it's particularly senior military officers saying it, because they know that most European countries are ill prepared for a conflict that they have through the peace dividend, after the end of the Cold War, reduced the size of their militaries, they have reduced the output of their weapons factories. So I don't think we should think of what Margaret is saying is scaremongering, because he's not alone in saying this. But as you say, there is a disconnect which he wants to highlight between what European populations feel and what governments are doing.
Jonathan Beale
If Donald Trump reduces military support, if he does concentrate on Asia, for example, I thought it interesting that Mark said to me, europe goes alone. Yes, there's not a map not just agreeing with 2% of GDP spending, which was agreed 10 years ago, but security 2.5. That's what the UK is aiming for when it comes 3, possibly in the near future, if that's possible. Is that enough? How worried? Like any Europeans or underwater, you have.
Katya Adler
To look at Donald Trump's rhetoric, then compare it with the reality. And I think if you look at last time, there was rhetoric about pulling out of NATO from Donald Trump, but it didn't happen. And I think Europeans hope that will be the case in a second Donald Trump term. I think it's important to say that even if Donald Trump did want for America to leave NATO, if he did follow through on some of the things he said, it would be very difficult for him to do it for the simple reason that last year Congress passed legislation which essentially says no president can suspend, terminate, denounce or withdraw from NATO without either an act of Congress or the approval of 2/3 of the US Senate. Interestingly, that legislation was passed with the backing of Senator Marco Rubio, who is of course Donald Trump's choice as the next Secretary of State.
Jonathan Beale
But could Europe go it alone in terms of defence?
Katya Adler
Europe couldn't go it alone in terms of defence, not least because it doesn't have the nuclear umbrella. Only the UK would be providing a nuclear umbrella for NATO if the US pulled out. I think that's unlikely. As you say, it couldn't do it alone in terms of providing Ukraine with the weapons they need. The US is still by far the largest provider of ammunition and weapons to Ukraine and the weapons they need and even the ones that Europe provides originate from the U.S. they have to get U.S. approval. And Europe doesn't have its own capabilities, the U.S. especially military operations. It doesn't have air defenses, NATO, Europe, missile defenses like the U.S. has. It does not have military that the U.S. has. A lot of European countries, as I mentioned, have cut the size of their military because they are expensive. They're now looking at increasing numbers, talking about conscription, but they cannot fill the numbers, the money, the finance, technical know how, and the nuclear umbrella that the US provides. So Europe can talk about improving its situation, addressing some of those capability gaps. But it'll take him a long time to do that. It doesn't happen overnight.
Jonathan Beale
Jonathan Biel in Ukraine do take care and thank you very much.
Katya Adler
Thank you Katya, good speaking to you.
Jonathan Beale
And thanks so much to you for listening. If you want to get in touch, you can email us@theglobalstorybc.com or send us a message or voice note on WhatsApp. Our number is 44331 23-9480 and you can find all those details in our show notes. Wherever you're listening in the world, this has been the Global Story. Thanks for having us in your headphones. Goodbye.
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If you enjoyed listening to the Global Story and would like to hear more, there's a new episode every weekday. Just search for the Global Story wherever you get your BBC podcasts and be sure to subscribe or follow. We'll have another edition of the Global News Podcast later. Until then, goodbye.
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Global News Podcast Summary
Episode: The Global Story: Does Trump’s Return Threaten the Future of NATO?
Release Date: December 22, 2024
Host: BBC World Service
In this episode of the BBC World Service's Global News Podcast, defense correspondent Jonathan Beale delves into the potential ramifications of Donald Trump's re-election on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The discussion navigates the complexities of transatlantic relations, NATO's strategic positioning amidst ongoing global conflicts, and the future security landscape of Europe and Ukraine.
Jonathan Beale opens the conversation by highlighting the uncertainty surrounding NATO's future following Donald Trump's unexpected re-election. Trump, known for his "America First" policy, has historically criticized NATO, questioning its value to the United States and challenging allies to increase their defense spending.
At [01:37], Trump bluntly states:
“NATO was busted until I came along. I said, everybody’s going to pay. They said, well, if we don’t pay, are you still going to protect us? I said, absolutely not.”
This sentiment encapsulates Trump's skepticism about NATO's financial and strategic viability, posing a significant challenge to the alliance's cohesion and effectiveness.
With Trump's potential return, NATO faces a pivotal moment under the leadership of its new Secretary General, Mark Rutter, whom Beale refers to as the "Trump Whisperer." Rutter's inaugural major speech emphasizes the necessity for NATO members to adopt a wartime mindset and substantially increase defense budgets to meet evolving security threats.
Rutter underscores the importance of sustained commitment from all member states:
“We should not need Donald Trump to decide to spend more on defense. We have to do it because it is in our interest.” [15:16]
This statement reflects Rutter's strategic approach to fortifying NATO's capabilities independent of U.S. political fluctuations.
Ukraine remains a focal point in the discussion, striving for NATO membership to secure vital defense guarantees amidst ongoing conflict with Russia. Katya Adler, reporting from Dnipro, emphasizes Ukraine's reliance on NATO allies for military support:
“Ukraine is watching what Mark Rutter, NATO Secretary General, is saying very closely, and it’s still hoping that somehow it will eventually be a member of NATO.” [02:44]
However, NATO's consensus-driven decision-making process poses significant hurdles for Ukraine's aspirations, especially with key members like the United States potentially retracting support under Trump's leadership.
Beale provides a historical perspective, tracing NATO's origins post-World War II as a defensive alliance aimed at countering Soviet expansion. The United States remains the cornerstone of NATO, contributing approximately 15% of the alliance's budget and offering unparalleled military might and the nuclear umbrella essential for collective security.
Katya Adler elaborates on U.S. contributions:
“Without America, NATO would be a shadow of what it is at the moment. There are between 50 to 100,000 U.S. military personnel stationed in Europe...” [04:29]
This dependence underscores the critical role the U.S. plays in maintaining NATO's strategic stability.
A significant portion of the discussion centers on Europe's defense spending and reliance on U.S. military support. Trump’s return raises concerns about possible reductions in U.S. commitment, which Europe heavily depends on due to historically low defense budgets among European NATO members.
Mark Rutter addresses these concerns by advocating for increased European defense spending not merely to appease U.S. demands but as a strategic necessity:
“We have to do it because it is in our interest.” [15:16]
This reflects a shift towards greater European autonomy in defense, though substantial challenges remain in bridging the financial and capability gaps.
The episode explores various scenarios should Trump decide to pull back from NATO commitments. Katya Adler points out legislative safeguards in the U.S. that make unilateral withdrawal from NATO challenging:
“Congress passed legislation which essentially says no president can suspend, terminate, denounce or withdraw from NATO without either an act of Congress or the approval of 2/3 of the US Senate.” [21:02]
Nevertheless, the possibility of strained relations persists, with European nations contemplating the sustainability of their security frameworks without assured U.S. backing.
NATO's operational effectiveness is further complicated by internal disagreements and varying levels of commitment among member states. The alliance's consensus-based approach can lead to stalemates on critical decisions, hindering swift responses to emerging threats.
Mark Rutter’s engagement with Trump, including their meeting at Mar-a-Lago, signifies efforts to maintain a cooperative relationship:
“He was speaking to Europeans here in Brussels, actually, I felt a lot of this message was directed towards the direct states, towards the incoming president.” [14:32]
Despite these efforts, the sustainability of NATO's unity under a potentially less supportive U.S. administration remains uncertain.
The episode concludes by emphasizing the precariousness of NATO's future amidst shifting U.S. leadership. With Ukraine's security hanging in the balance and European nations grappling with defense readiness, the alliance stands at a crossroads. The interplay between Mark Rutter's leadership and Donald Trump's policies will be pivotal in determining whether NATO can adapt and thrive in the face of evolving global threats.
Donald Trump [01:37]:
“NATO was busted until I came along. I said, everybody’s going to pay... I said, absolutely not.”
Donald Trump [10:11]:
“If we don’t pay, we don’t get protection... I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want.”
Mark Rutter [15:16]:
“We have to do it because it is in our interest.”
Mark Rutter [14:55]:
“Will spend more because otherwise he might... Turn his back, though.”
This comprehensive analysis provides listeners with an in-depth understanding of the potential impacts of Donald Trump's presidency on NATO, the strategic challenges facing the alliance, and the broader implications for global security dynamics.