Global News Podcast – "The US ran a war game on the aftermath of Maduro’s fall – it predicted chaos"

Host: BBC World Service
Date: January 11, 2026

Episode Overview

This bonus episode of the Global News Podcast explores the aftermath of the dramatic US-led capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, and why American officials proceeded despite war-game exercises consistently predicting chaos if his regime collapsed. Asma Khalid interviews Douglas Farah, former Washington Post journalist and current national security consultant. Farah has participated in US government war games around regime change scenarios in Venezuela across multiple administrations.

The episode offers behind-the-scenes insight into how governments plan for regime collapse, why Venezuela posed such unique challenges, and why every "war game" scenario ended with fragmented chaos—foreshadowing the very instability unfolding after Maduro's real-world capture.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Why Does the US Run War Games on Venezuela?

• Nature of War Games:
  • Governments regularly run "war game" scenarios for potential crises worldwide.
    "It's where you sit down and you look at, okay, what happens if the regime changes? How would it happen? What follows?" (Douglas Farah, 02:36)
  • Participants role-play major actors—US (blue team), adversaries (red team), and neutral countries (e.g., Brazil).

Venezuela’s Geopolitical Significance

• Why a Focus for Contingency Planning:
  • Rising criminal and terrorist activities, connections to international actors like Iran, Russia, and China.
  • The evolution of powerful internal organizations like "cartel de los Soles" and FARC (Colombian guerrilla group).
  • Venezuela represented a "national security concern" due to these interlinked threats.

Obama Administration War Games (2008–2016)

• Main Focus:
  • Economic collapse and social unrest stemming from hyperinflation.
    "Was that going to bring down the regime?" (07:00)
• Findings:
  • The regime wouldn't fall from economic collapse alone, but mass migration was inevitable.
  • Underestimated the scale (8 million) as Maduro facilitated an exodus, even releasing prisoners.

Trump Administration Scenarios ("Day After" Planning, 2016–2020)

• Key Events:

  • 2019 "Opposition President" Juan Guaidó recognized internationally; humanitarian aid efforts at Venezuelan border.
  • Maduro remained entrenched, burning food aid and blocking relief.

• War Game Scenarios:

  • Scenarios included regime continuity, popular uprising, and "decapitation" (removal of Maduro).
  • "The least likely scenario was a popular uprising... There was no structure for the opposition to achieve power." (10:32)
  • Main conclusion: Even without Maduro, security apparatus would fragment, leading to "general chaos."
  • "The regime can probably control Caracas and maybe the main airports, but you have so many armed groups that are so fragmented... no one could come in and control the interior of the country without an enormous amount of troops and effort." (11:30)

• No "Clean" Win:

  • "Not civil war because it's too fragmented. Just general chaos." (12:17)

Biden Administration – A Different Approach

• Shifting Focus:
  • Biden administration deprioritized regime change; focus shifted to monitoring criminal organizations and the impact of sanctions.
  • Analysis covered financial networks sustaining Maduro and his elites, e.g., oil revenues funneled through shell companies worldwide.
    "If you buy into the assessment as I do, that the primary motivation over time was financial, not ideological, for Maduro, then, to cut off the financial flows is what would really damage them." (18:01)

The Unthinkable: US Capture of Maduro

• Never War-Gamed:

  • A US special ops mission to capture a sitting Latin American head of state was never seriously anticipated.
  • "The possibility of kidnapping a sitting head of state in the Western Hemisphere did not cross any of our minds really... It would be like thinking about why don't elephants fly? Like it just didn't—there was no reason to think about it." (20:07)

• Douglas Farah’s Personal Reaction:

  • "I was really stunned... The fact that they could do it didn't surprise me. The fact that they did it surprised me enormously." (21:02)
  • Warns that unless the US has a humanitarian plan, the operation will quickly lose legitimacy.
    "People get very hungry very quickly. And what they say almost immediately is: Well, we were better off before. Why did you take Maduro when at least we could buy bread?" (21:41)

The Drug Trade: Realities vs. Rhetoric

• US Policy on Drugs:
  • Trump administration claims Venezuela is a drug nexus.
  • Farah’s response:
    • US Coast Guard could interdict drugs effectively if resourced.
    • Venezuela is less central in cocaine production; trafficking routes are flexible.
    • No evidence Venezuela's involved in the fentanyl trade; precursors come from China to Mexico.
      "Again, if you just go after Venezuelan drugs, all you've done is kick the anthill and move folks to do something a little bit differently." (23:40)

Are There Any Good Policy Options?

• Longstanding Dilemma:
  • All scenarios end poorly:
    "We didn't have any scenarios where we thought, oh, this will play out well, here... Everything requires not only a political alignment... but an enormous amount of resources to come in behind." (27:06)
  • Only possible hope: more aggressive, targeted sanctions to economically squeeze regime elites, and a comprehensive, multi-country regional strategy.
  • "We never developed a cohesive comprehensive financial strategy... That is what would have broken the backs of the elites and made it unsustainable for any of them to stay in power." (25:27)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the futility of simple regime change:
  "In these various scenarios that you mapped out, no successor of Maduro’s, even if it came from within his orbit, could successfully control the country." (16:12)

• On why the US didn't foresee the capture operation:
  "It would be like thinking about why don't elephants fly? Like it just didn't—there was no reason to think about it." (20:07)

• On current US actions and legitimacy:
  "If we don’t have a plan to come in and meet those felt needs of the population very quickly, everything we’ve done will lose legitimacy very quickly, because people get very hungry very quickly." (21:41)

• On the realities of anti-drug operations:
  "If you just go after Venezuelan drugs, all you’ve done is kick the anthill and move folks to do something a little bit differently." (23:40)

• On why every scenario ended in disaster:
  "That’s exactly right. We didn’t have any scenarios or we thought, oh, this is...what, you know, this would play out well here, because everything requires...an enormous amount of resources to come in behind." (27:06)

Key Timestamps

• [02:36] What are war games and how do they work?
• [05:17] Why Venezuela: strategic concerns and formative threats
• [06:36] War games under Obama—hyperinflation, mass migration
• [08:09] Trump administration: coups, opposition movements, military splits
• [10:16] Humanitarian efforts and Maduro's defensive maneuvers
• [11:30] Why even a post-Maduro regime would lose control—fragmented armed groups
• [12:17] Chaos, not civil war—the real forecast
• [14:09] Why opposition can't seize real control
• [18:01] Biden years: criminal networks and economic lifelines
• [20:07] Never war-gamed: US kidnapping Maduro
• [21:02] Farah’s reaction and warnings about popular legitimacy
• [22:33] Drug routes: myth vs. reality
• [24:54] Are there any good options?
• [27:06] All scenarios end in disaster

Episode Takeaways

• US "war games" repeatedly showed that removing Maduro would likely trigger chaos, not democratic renewal.
• No administration planned for the kind of dramatic operation that just took place—a sign of how unpredictable real-world policy decisions can be.
• Venezuela’s complexity is rooted in fragmented armed groups, criminal networks, deep economic crises, and the geopolitical involvement of global powers.
• Humanitarian concerns and legitimate governance are urgent, but military action without a comprehensive plan can quickly backfire.
• There are no easy wins—only hard choices and complex trade-offs.

For more on the evolving world order and future crossover podcasts, listeners are invited to write in with questions or topics to globalpodcast@bbc.co.uk.