Lower tax payments shift stimulus later into 1H26

We're in the midst of tax season, and BAC data helps us track changes in refunds, payments, and the impact on spending. Refund growth is in the high single digits y/y, but lower tax payments bring total stimulus closer to the ~25% increase we had been expecting. Aditya Bhave explains how lower payments shift the timing of benefits, potentially extending the spending lift through much of the first half of 2026. There's also evidence that higher refunds and lower payments are boosting spend, with a modest inflection since early this year. Middle- and higher‑income consumers appear to benefit most. With much of the lift tied to higher SALT deductions, we examine whether SALT states such as NY, NJ, and CA are seeing stronger spending and how weather and past wildfires may be clouding the data. We finish with whether any further measures could support lower‑income consumers and what to expect from the incoming Fed Chair.

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