Podcast
Global Trade Deciphered
Hosted by Justin Hayden Miller · EN
Global Trade Deciphered explores global trade and the economy concerning geopolitics and topical news events, featuring expert analysis from leading world-class guests. Hosted by Justin Hayden Miller, a global trade advisor and strategist, former international trade and tax partner at a top-tier European law firm and former senior leader at the Big-4. Essential listening for business leaders, policymakers, and anyone curious about international business and trade policy.
15episodes
Episodes
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EU Killed De Minimus: The Death of Cheap Parcels from July 2026
2w ago00:20:17Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailFrom 1 July 2026 the EU is scrapping its €150 customs de minimis threshold. Cheap parcels just died. Every low-value package from outside Europe now faces a new flat-rate €3 customs duty per product type — plus France’s extra €2 “"taxe sur les petits colis" (TPC) and a potential patchwork of national fees.In this episode I explain exactly why the EU followed Trump’s lead to abolish De Minimus, how Temu and Shein gamed the old system with 91% of small parcels from China, and why even experts can’t keep up with the constant rule changes.The Paradox Bomb: Rules designed to make trade fairer and crush e-commerce fraud are actually making everything more complicated, more expensive, and potentially hurting the very businesses and consumers they were meant to protect. So what for business leaders? Higher friction costs, a massive incentive to shift to EU fulfilment centres instead of direct shipping from the UK, US or Asia. Listen to the podcast for more details.If you send or receive small packages to Europe — e-commerce, cross-border gifts, online shopping — this is essential listening.Keywords / Tags: EU de minimis 2026, end of €150 threshold, low value packages customs, low value consignments, small parcels EU, customs duties July 2026, Temu, Shein , EU rules, e-commerce imports Europe, cheap parcels, EU customs changes 2026, global trade podcast.IMPORTANT NOTE: This episode does not constitute advice in any form. Get expert advice from an expert, specific to your circumstances, before relying on any information contained in this episode. Rules, legislation, practice guidance and thresholds can also change. The content of this podcast is intended only to provide an information resource of interest and does not constitute legal, tax, business, or financial advice of any kind. Should you require advice, engage an appropriately qualified person. Views expressed are my own.Subscribe to Global Trade Deciphered for unfiltered briefings on the policies, trends and geopolitics reshaping global trade. Share with anyone who’s ever cursed at a parcel notification.Photo credit: Photo Credit: Breathe Icon Team: Sebastian Porta, Cory Kontros, Andrew Starr-Bochicchio, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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Digital Tariffs 2026: WTO E-Commerce Moratorium Dies – Customs Duties on Netflix, SaaS & Data Now Possible | Fireside Chat
Apr 1400:19:14Tap to summarizeSend us Fan Mail📌 Digital Tariffs 2026: WTO E-Commerce Moratorium Dies – Customs Duties on Netflix, SaaS & Data Now Possible | Fireside ChatThe 28-year WTO ban on customs duties for electronic transmissions has just lapsed. For the first time since 1998, countries can now tax downloads, streaming (Netflix, Spotify), e-books, SaaS subscriptions, cloud data transfers and every other electronic flow — exactly like physical goods.In this relaxed Fireside Chat, Justin Hayden Miller breaks down:• Why this is “MEGA” for businesses and consumers (and why the US and EU fought so hard to keep it)• The new patchwork of digital border rules that compliance teams will have to track• Why this changes everything we thought we knew about customs in the 21st century• Plus: latest Hormuz crisis update, aversion therapy strategy, Suez & Panama chokepoints, UNCTAD trade figures, and what it all means for global supply chainsA genuine “Paradox Bomb” episode: in the age of seamless digital globalisation, the rules designed to keep data borderless have just crumbled.🎙️ Fireside Chat format — no script, straight talk from the armchair.Send Justin a voice message or fan mail directly from this episode page (link at the top of the description) — he reads and replies to every one.The content of this podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax or financial advice. Always consult a qualified professional for your specific situation.#DigitalTariffs #WTO #EcommerceMoratorium #GlobalTrade2026 #HormuzCrisis #SupplyChainRiskIf you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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Tintin’s Black Gold Warning: Hormuz, Kharg Island, Red Sea Houthi & $150 Shock
Mar 3100:21:31Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailTintin warned us in the 1950s. In 2026 the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz are exploding just like the comic – and $150 oil is no longer science fiction.In this episode I crack open Hergé’s Tintin: Land of Black Gold and show how its 1950s story of sabotaged tankers, exploding fuel and Middle East intrigue is playing out in real time in the 2026 Red Sea Houthi crisis and Hormuz oil shock.Here’s what you’ll hear:• The eerie parallels between the comic’s desert kingdom of Khemed and today’s Red Sea Houthi attacks, Iran tensions, tanker routes and underground facilities• Why a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure or fresh Red Sea shipping disruption isn’t just a shipping headache – it’s a global supply chain shock that could slam trade balances, ignite inflation and hand the next recession its starter’s pistol• How the 1970s oil crises (the ones that forced Europe to invent summer time) are already repeating in the 2026 Middle East oil crisis• The demand-side playbook smart governments and businesses can use tomorrow – no lectures, just pick-and-choose moves that actually work while everyone else waits for calm seasHergé never wrote a sequel to Land of Black Gold.But the sequel to today’s Red Sea and Hormuz events is unfolding every morning in the news.If you’re a business leader, policymaker or anyone tracking energy security, oil prices and global trade disruption in 2026, hit play now.IEA Press Conference Link: https://www.iea.org/events/video-statement-by-iea-executive-director-on-iea-oil-stock-releaseGlobal Trade Deciphered – decoding what matters before it hits balance sheets.If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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Strait of Hormuz Crisis 2026: Customs Compliance Survival Guide with Maersk's William Petty [TOP EXPERT INTERVIEW]
Mar 1600:23:23Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailIn this episode we discuss how businesses might handle the compliance chaos of the Strait of Hormuz blockade—ships stalled, oil prices soaring, supply chains crumbling etc.. How are businesses dodging compliance pitfalls amid this geopolitical storm? Maersk's innovation Lead and expert, William Petty, reveals insider strategies.Strait of Hormuz disruptions: Seafarers at risk, vessels rerouted—what's the real knock-on for your global trade ops?COVID parallels: Bottlenecks, piracy, Suez flashbacks—are we in for another black swan era?Compliance wake-up call: Why your supply chain, logistics, and customs teams must sync now to slash delays and costs.Non-traditional regs exploding: CBAM carbon taxes, EU deforestation rules, US forced labor bans—ready to track geolocated trees or cotton spinners?TariffsTrade fragmentation frenzy: Bilateral deals, sectoral carve-outs—navigating the spider's web of evolving tariffs and borders.AI and tech lifelines: Shrinking the haystack with data analytics—spot misclassifications, prioritize 80/20 risks, unlock duty savings.Digital product passports revolution: Real-time data sharing for friction-free borders—could this transform your imports forever?2026 trends alert: UK CBAM incoming, forced labor regs spreading—opportunities in digital corridors or more compliance headaches?William Petty, Maersk's Trade and Customs Consulting innovation Lead with 20+ years from World Economic Forum to global alliances, joins host Justin Hayden Miller to decipher it all.Global trade pros: Is your business resilient enough? Tune in for actionable hooks on supply chain disruptions, customs compliance strategies, and logistics innovation. #StraitOfHormuzCrisis #CustomsCompliance #SupplyChainDisruptions #MaerskInsights #CBAM #DigitalTrade #GlobalTradePodcastSubscribe on Apple Podcasts for more on geopolitics reshaping trade. Share if this hits your supply chain nerve!If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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Iran War: Oil Crisis - First reactions
Mar 200:12:24Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailIran Hormuz Crisis escalates and is now closed: US-Israel strikes trigger Iranian retaliation, IRGC warnings halt tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz (20% of global oil supply at risk). Brent crude prices surging, with analysts warning $100-150+ if disruptions persist. Major carriers (Maersk, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) suspend transits—shipping chaos compounds delays and fuel costs.At the same time, Trump's defiant response to February Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs: 10% global import duty under Section 122 (effective Feb 24, 150 days max), with indications to hike to 15%. Shadow trade wars emerge via licensing schemes, potential fees, and workarounds bypassing oversight—adding volatility to already strained supply chains.Host Justin Hayden Miller (global trade strategist, ex-Big 4/ top law firm) unpacks the paradox: independent crises amplifying each other. Hear his prescient Nov 2025 warning (Episode 15 clip) on fuel spikes + tariffs—now playing out.Key takeaways & survival guide:Oil hedging, supply chain delays, tariff inflation, rethink strategy, vertical integration, renewables self-sufficiency, onshoring, hyperlocal model, navigate uncertainty, pre-clearance, licensing shifts, multipolar trade realignmentEssential for business leaders, importers, CFOs facing compounded risks. We're in a gale—prepare for the hurricane.Disclaimer: Not legal/tax/financial/business advice—consult qualified professionals concerning your specific circumstances.If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump's IEEPA Tariffs, with US Trade Lawyer, Jeremy Page [TOP EXPERT INTERVIEW]
Feb 2000:21:18Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailSupreme Court Strikes Down Trump's IEEPA Tariffs – Historic 6-3 Ruling BreakdownFebruary 20, 2026: The U.S. Supreme Court rules President Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for tariffs is illegal. No presidential authority for tariffs under IEEPA—Congress holds taxing power. Invalidates 10% baseline global tariffs, higher targeted duties on China, Mexico, Canada, EU, Japan, South Korea, and "Liberation Day" reciprocal tariffs.International rade lawyer Jeremy Page (Page-Fura PC, Chicago) gives expert analysis: Why the Court rejected IEEPA as a tariff/emergency tool, refund possibilities via Court of International Trade: alternatives (Section 232, 301, etc.).The episode discusses the consolidated US Supreme Court cases Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump and Trump v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc.Why this Supreme Court tariff case is historicIEEPA basics: No tariffs mentioned, revenue power stays with CongressTrump's IEEPA uses: Fentanyl, immigration, deficits, Liberation DayCourt: IEEPA Tariffs aren't authorizedUnwinding tariffs & country responsesImporter refunds? CIT role & injunction questions6-3 vote details (Roberts' leading opinion)Plan B: Other tariff statutes exploredEssential for importers, businesses, lawyers tracking U.S. trade policy. Subscribe for more global trade insights!Thumbnail Photo: Supreme Court. Author: Quercusvirginiana. Photograph made available under the Creative Commons Attribution CC01.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication.If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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Gold Surging Past $5,000 in 2026: De-Dollarization & Risks of War
Feb 1700:21:13Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailGold has surged past $5,000 per ounce in 2026, hitting highs above $5,600 in January. What is driving this dramatic rally—and what does it signal for global trade and financial global order?Justin Hayden Miller breaks down the key forces behind gold's explosive move, including surging safe-haven demand, central bank purchases, and growing discussions around de-dollarization. The episode examines renewed calls in Germany, Poland, and Italy to repatriate gold reserves from US vaults—prompted by geopolitical strains in transatlantic relations under the second Trump administration and concerns over asset risks.Drawing on historical patterns of gold accumulation and movements ahead of major conflicts, the discussion explores whether these developments indicate eroding trust in the dollar as the dominant reserve currency and potential fractures in global alliances.Key subjects covered:Germany's push to bring home gold held in the USBroader European repatriation debates and trust issuesHistorical precedents of gold hoarding before military conflictsThe paradox of gold's heightened role in today's free-floating market versus the classical gold standard eraBRICS nations' hedging against sanctions/trade pressuresImplications for dollar dominance, global trade finance, supply chains, and multipolar alliances.Essential listening for business leaders, policymakers, investors, and analysts monitoring geopolitics, reserve currencies, and international trade dynamics.Keywords : gold price 2026, $XAUUSD, gold $5000, de-dollarization, gold repatriation Germany, dollar reserve currency, geopolitics gold, central bank gold, US Europe relations Trump, global trade risks, gold surge 2026.Micro-clip of Marco Rubio leaving for Munich Security Summit: C-SpanIf you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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Mark Carney’s Davos Rupture: Why Global Trade Rules Are Dead (And What Comes Next)
Feb 200:24:24Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailJustin Hayden Miller breaks down Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's explosive Davos speech at the World Economic Forum. From tariffs weaponized as leverage to supply chains exposed as vulnerabilities, explore how great powers are accelerating chaos in international commerce. Is this a rupture or a salvageable transition? Miller unpacks the geopolitics with sharp insights, drawing on analogies from science and history to make sense of the turmoil.Key Topics Explored:The end of the rules-based international order: Carney's blunt take on economic integration turning into coercion.Middle powers' survival strategies: Building alliances, strategic autonomy in energy, food, and critical minerals.Tariffs and trade wars: Reactions from figures like François Hollande on balancing power with the US, plus insights from US trade attorney Peter Quinter on free trade's role in global peace.Geopolitical risks: From EU's anti-coercion tools to the prisoner's dilemma in modern trade negotiations.Forward-looking trade shifts: Multiplex alliances, resource cartels, and the race for critical materials like copper.Featuring audio snippets from Carney's iconic address and a voiceover of François Hollande's advice concerning European trade policy regarding the US.Link to Mark Carney’s speech on the excellent WEF World Economic Forum website: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-special-address-by-mark-carney-prime-minister-of-canada/See also: https://www.weforum.org/stories/2026/01/davos-2026-how-middle-powers-are-reading-the-global-moment/Global Trade Deciphered is essential listening for business leaders, policymakers and anyone tracking global economy trends. Subscribe now on Apple Podcasts for more unfiltered analysis on global trade, geopolitics, tariffs, Davos insights, Mark Carney, World Economic Forum, trade policy, critical minerals, supply chain vulnerabilities, and international relations. Share with your network and join the conversation!Thumbnail image of Mark Carney, © Lëa-Kim Châteauneuf, reproduced by kind permission: licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license, c.c. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2025-11-14_InaugurationREM_Deux-Montagnes_Mark_Carney.jpg ; photo cropped and lightly modified by Global Trade Deciphered.If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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EU-Mercosur Trade Deal Signed: 2026 Farmer Protests, Anti-Trump Pivot & 26-Year Saga
Jan 2000:21:34Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailIn this episode of Global Trade Deciphered, host Justin Hayden Miller discusses and analyses the newly signed EU-Mercosur trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay). Signed on January 17, 2026, after 26 years of negotiations, this landmark deal eliminates tariffs on over 90% of goods, boosts access to critical minerals like lithium, and covers investment, intellectual property, and sustainable development. But is it Europe's strategic move to counter U.S. trade policies under Trump?Justin analyzes the geopolitical implications, including how U.S. foreign policy is pushing nations toward closer ties with China, as seen in Paraguay's president's remarks on strategic partnerships. He explores farmer protests in France and Europe, opposition from countries like France, Poland, and Hungary, and the challenges of ratification—including potential vetoes, European Parliament approval, and even a possible European Court of Justice review.Key discussions include:Tariff reductions on industrial products, cars, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, wine, and agriculture (with quotas for sensitive items like beef).Safeguards for EU standards on labor, environment, and deforestation.Broader trends: Deglobalization, anti-globalization protests echoing 1999, and predictions for 2026 global trade shifts.Audio clips from Paraguay's President Santiago Peña, U.S. President Donald Trump, and EU President Ursula von der Leyen.This episode is essential for understanding 2026 trade policies, EU-Mercosur impacts on global supply chains, Trump tariffs' ripple effects, and the future of international business amid farmer revolts and geopolitical pivots.Timestamps:00:02 – Intro: Arctic Tensions & Episode Overview03:11 – Paraguay President Peña on China Partnerships03:38 – Trump's Policies Pushing Allies Toward China12:15 – Trump on EU Challenges12:26 – EU Decision-Making Complexities14:33 – Von der Leyen on Trade Growth Estimates14:51 – Analyzing the "Substantial" 9 Billion Euro Projection15:10 – Von der Leyen on Investments in Cars & Chemicals15:38 – Putting Trade Figures in PerspectiveEnd – Predictions: Ratification Rollercoaster & Anti-Trump DealsHosted by Justin Hayden Miller, a Paris-based global trade advisor and strategist with 25+ years of experience, former partner at a top-tier European law firm, and senior leader in Big-4 international trade and tax practices. Global Trade Deciphered explores global trade, geopolitics, and the economy with expert insights for business leaders, policymakers, and trade enthusiasts.Reference press articles mentioned during the episode:https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jan/15/greenland-neIf you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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2026 Trade Predictions: Maduro's Capture, Supreme Court Tariff Ruling, Trump Policies & Global Shifts
Jan 500:21:24Tap to summarizeSend us Fan MailMaduro in U.S. custody. Venezuela's oil under American influence. A pending Supreme Court decision that could ignite a new trade war. Welcome to 2026—it's already explosive.Just days into the new year, host Justin Hayden Miller unpacks the geopolitical shockwaves ripping through global trade. From U.S. control of Venezuelan energy to the tariffs showdown at the Supreme Court, this episode delivers razor-sharp analysis on the forces reshaping supply chains, alliances, and power balances in 2026.Why this episode demands your attention right now:How Maduro's capture could hand the U.S. unprecedented leverage over Latin American trade—and why China won't stay silentThe Supreme Court tariff ruling hanging over Trump’s agenda: massive importer refunds or escalating trade war?Why oil is suddenly more critical than ever—and what AI's insatiable energy hunger has to do with itCould the U.S. turn Venezuela into an economic proxy inside Mercosur, upending EU negotiations?Expert takes: Will China absorb Taiwan with barely a ripple? Is globalization crumbling under AI and robotics?2025 predictions that hit the bullseye—and the bold calls for what's nextHighlights include:US International Trade attorney Peter Quinter on why the Supreme Court might force congressional approval on future tariffsShipping expert Simon Ward's provocative outlook on China's growth and TaiwanInsights from former EU Labour leader Richard Corbett and senior BMW executive Dr. Jürgen GuldnerPerfect for executives, investors, and policymakers tracking:#MaduroCapture #VenezuelaOil #TrumpTariffs #SupremeCourtRuling #GlobalTrade2026 #Geopolitics #AIEnergy #TradeWar #ChinaTaiwan #MercosurSubscribe now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite platform. Drop a 5-star review if you're ready for unfiltered insights on the trade battles defining 2026.If you like the podcast, please subscribe so you don't miss any episodes and leave a rating. Also tell friends and colleagues about it so the podcast can grow.*Follow Justin on X: @JustinHaydenM or contact us by email at GlobalTradeDeciphered@gmail.com Sign up to our newsletter. (We won't spam you and will remove your email on your request.) https://substack.com/@globaltradedeciphered*Disclaimer: This podcast is simply for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not in way constitute legal, business, financial or other advice whatsoever. Should you require advice then please seek such from an appropriately qualified professional, explaining your specific circumstances.
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