GoodFellows: "California Dreaming with Rick Caruso"
Podcast: GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution
Date: July 24, 2025
Guests: Rick Caruso, John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster, Bill Whalen (moderator)
Brief Overview
In this episode of GoodFellows, the Hoover Institution’s roundtable tackles the chronic challenges plaguing major American cities—homelessness, high living costs, education decline, and public safety—with a focus on Los Angeles in the wake of catastrophic wildfires. Special guest Rick Caruso, real estate magnate and former Los Angeles mayoral candidate, joins senior fellows John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, and H. R. McMaster for a candid conversation about urban governance, rebuilding after disaster, leadership, and California’s future. The latter half of the show shifts to the state of the prolonged Ukraine war, unpacking the dynamics of US, European, and Chinese involvement and the larger geopolitical repercussions.
Key Discussion Points and Insights
1. Urban Crisis and Leadership Deficits
[00:00 - 05:32]
- Fire Catastrophe as Wake-Up Call: Rick Caruso castigates local government incompetence in disaster response, using the 2025 LA wildfires as a prime example.
- “The reality is...we all got the warnings of disastrous catastrophic winds that could kill people...and the preparation just wasn't right. It wasn't enough.” (A, 00:00)
- Evolution of Big City Mayors: Discussion contrasts historic, tough-on-crime mayors with today's leaders, often ideologically driven rather than focused on competence.
- “There's been a bit of a history of electing people not on competence but on ideology. And I'm hoping that we've hit a turning point...” (A, 04:06)
- Competence vs. Ideology: Voters have often supported ideological platforms out of frustration but crises are prompting a renewed demand for competent governance.
2. Challenges Within Cities: Housing, Homelessness, Education, Crime
[05:32 - 08:29]
- Structural Obstacles: John Cochrane outlines the gridlock caused by restrictive zoning, union power, and entrenched interest groups, lamenting the scarcity of practical public services for ordinary people.
- “Actual poor people in cities want better schools...they want the cops to come, not to defund the police, they want actual services.” (D, 05:34)
- Hope for Sensible Reform: Caruso remains optimistic that common-sense, moderate leadership—regardless of political party—can move the needle, provided the 'silent middle' of voters engage.
- “Every one of those issues...can be tackled and are solvable.” (A, 06:40)
3. San Francisco's Turnaround and LA’s Lag
[08:29 - 11:04]
- Dan Lurie in San Francisco: The group analyzes the reform trajectory under moderate leadership, highlighting the crucial advantage of a repopulating tech industry—a luxury LA’s downtown lacks.
- Downtown Crisis in LA: LA faces a nearly 40% downtown vacancy rate, linked less to work-from-home and more to safety and cleanliness failures.
- “Here's the scary part about downtown LA. We have almost a 40% vacancy rate in downtown LA now.” (A, 09:03)
- The Importance of Optimism: Returning optimism, even with incremental wins, is seen as essential to reversing decline.
4. The Wildfires: Private Sector Step-In for Civic Failure
[11:04 - 17:52]
Government Failures:
- Leadership Vacuum During Crisis: Mayor and department heads caught unprepared, with basic errors like empty water tanks and absence of emergency planning.
- “...we got word that my daughter's house was on fire...the reason it's on fire is because the firefighters had no water in the hydrants and they can't put out the homes...which in today's world just seems like an impossibility...” (A, 11:46)
- Systemic Underfunding: A graveyard of unused fire department equipment, chronic underinvestment by city leaders.
Private Solutions:
- Steadfast LA Nonprofit: Caruso describes forming an independent, privately-funded group to rebuild affected areas, deploying best-in-industry talent and AI for rapid home plan checks.
- “The goal is to support the city, the county, the state, take problems, put the team around the problem, solve the problems, and deliver a package...that they can employ to move things along...with urgency, with innovation, and at no cost to the city or the county.” (A, 13:40)
- “We've got a team of people...We're rebuilding parks, we're helping rebuild the schools. We developed an AI model to plan check people's homes in a matter of hours rather than months.” (A, 15:40)
- Infection of Optimism: “The energy is contagious. And we're planning on reopening our village next year. The amount of restaurants and retailers that want to come back is inspiring. People want to be part of a story that says good is going to happen and it can happen.” (A, 17:06)
Quote Highlight:
- “Our motto at Steadfast is we're going to work with the elected officials. We're going to work around the elected officials or we're going to work through the elected officials. But we're going to.” (A, 17:06)
5. Reflections on Civic Leadership and Potential Political Future
[17:52 - 24:48]
- Caruso’s Role Models: Credits Tom Bradley, Dick Reardon, and especially Jim Hahn as exemplars of principled mayoral leadership.
- “The unsung hero that I learned a lot from was Jim Hahn...the message was, don't worry about getting reelected or reappointed, you can really make a difference. And that's what we've got to bring back.” (A, 18:12)
- Running for Mayor or Governor?: Caruso confirms he’s weighing another mayoral run or possibly a gubernatorial bid for California—emphasizing optimism and fixable problems.
- “I am optimistic. I mean, California should be leading this country.” (A, 20:02)
- Motivations to Serve: Caruso recounts his personal investment in Los Angeles and frustration with solvable city problems being allowed to fester.
- “I know you can solve the homeless problem. I know you can solve the crime problem. I did many of these things when I served for three mayors.” (A, 22:00)
6. Structural Obstacles to Reform
[24:48 - 28:45]
- Entrenched Interests: Cochrane spotlights the deep-rooted power of zoning boards, planning offices, and public sector unions, which make change difficult.
- “You have to fight some extraordinarily entrenched interests who benefit off the current dysfunction....” (D, 26:29)
- Caruso’s Philosophy: “It's a job worth doing. And that's what leadership is all about.... You’ve got to be able to compromise...But you’ve got to be setting a goal and getting everybody...to walk with you down that road together.” (A, 27:30)
7. LA and the 2028 Olympics: Capacity for Civic Success
[28:45 - 29:54]
- Lack of Optimism: Caruso expresses doubt about LA city government’s ability to deliver for the 2028 Olympics.
- “Not very. Sadly, not very. ...We can't figure out how to repair sidewalks. How are we going to be ready for the Olympics?” (A, 29:10, 29:34)
8. Ukraine War: Pessimism, Strategy, and Great-Power Rivalry
[30:07 - 40:36]
Strategic Reality and the US Role
- Stalemate or Russian Momentum?: Niall Ferguson warns the war isn’t static; Russia retains the strategic initiative if Western aid is not decisive.
- “It’s not a stalemate. I think that’s something of an illusion....the balance of forces very clearly favors Russia if the war lasts much more than six months more.” (E, 31:40)
- Limits of Sanctions: Discussion on whether Trump-style tariffs or piecemeal aid can alter Putin’s calculus—HR McMaster and Cochrane remain skeptical about Russian offensive power but see the West’s wavering as a danger.
China’s Role and Geoeconomic Tensions
- China’s Commitment to Russia:
- “Wang Yi...told his European counterpart, we are not going to let Russia lose this war. And so China’s commitment to Russia’s war effort continues, and it doesn’t vacillate the way our commitment to Ukraine has vacillated.” (E, 38:13)
- Possibility of Expanded Sanctions:
- “I think what’s going to happen is...a greater realization of how the war in Ukraine is connected to this broader competition with the axis of aggressors.” (C, 41:20)
The Perilous Path Forward
- Long, Costly Stalemate or Sudden Collapse?: Panelists agree that neither Russia nor Ukraine has a guaranteed path to victory, but Ukraine's vulnerabilities are mounting.
- “I don’t think it’s going to outlast the presidency because I don’t think Ukraine can fight that long.” (E, 47:06)
- “It is possible for Ukraine to lose but it’s impossible for Russia to win.” (C, 48:39)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Leadership and Courage:
“Don’t worry about getting reelected or reappointed, you can really make a difference. And that’s what we’ve got to bring back.”
— Rick Caruso (18:12) -
On Wildfire Response:
“When we got word my daughter's house was on fire...the firefighters had no water in the hydrants...in today's world just seems like an impossibility…”
— Rick Caruso (11:46) -
On Private Sector Civic Action:
“Our motto at Steadfast is we’re going to work with the elected officials. We’re going to work around...or we’re going to work through...But we’re going to.”
— Rick Caruso (17:06) -
On Mayoral Mindset:
“If you don’t worry about getting reelected or reappointed, you can really make a difference.”
— Rick Caruso (18:12) -
On Ongoing Urban Problems:
“Downtown LA...almost a 40% vacancy rate...not about back to work rules...because it’s clean, it’s safe, all of these kind of things that are just basic things…”
— Rick Caruso (09:03) -
On 2028 LA Olympics:
“We can’t figure out how to repair sidewalks. How are we going to be ready for the Olympics?”
— Rick Caruso quoting Rick Cole (29:34) -
On US Commitment to Ukraine:
“Because the Trump administration has blown hot and cold about this war… that has, I think, created an uncertainty about the US commitment.”
— Niall Ferguson (31:40)
Timestamps for Key Segments
| Timestamp | Topic | |-------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00 | Opening, wildfire disaster critique | | 04:06 | Ideological vs. competent city governance | | 06:40 | Issues facing cities: housing, homelessness, crime | | 08:29 | San Francisco’s reforms, LA’s unique challenges | | 11:04 | Wildfire response: systemic failure & private sector steps| | 13:40 | Steadfast LA, AI-driven private rebuilding | | 17:52 | Civic leadership: past mayors, the virtue of courage | | 20:02 | Possible Caruso run for mayor/governor | | 22:00 | Caruso’s motivations and campaign reflections | | 24:48 | Entrenched interests and barriers to reform | | 28:45 | LA and the 2028 Olympics | | 30:07 | Ukraine war update: US, EU, Russia, China roles | | 41:20 | “Axis of aggressors” and expanded sanctions | | 47:06 | War outlook: Is a long war sustainable for Ukraine? |
Tone and Dynamic
The tone was a hybrid of urgency and optimism, laced with moments of frustration over government dysfunction but punctuated with hope for practical problem-solving and civic renewal. The group’s analytical style blends policy realism, empathy for citizens, and wry humor (e.g., anecdotes about mayors, McMaster’s effect on property values, British air conditioning woes). Caruso’s language is frank, accessible, and imbued with a private-sector “get it done” ethos.
Useful for Listeners Who Haven't Heard the Episode:
- Expect sharp critiques of urban mismanagement, but also real-world stories of grassroots rebuilding, innovative nonprofit efforts, and why civic leadership matters.
- Learn about the intersection of local disasters and larger themes of American urban decline and what can be done to fix them.
- Get an insider’s take on California’s political future, including the rumblings of a possible Caruso run for higher office.
- Hear seasoned geopolitical analysis of the Ukraine war—the limits of Western aid, the China factor, and the risks of a drawn-out conflict.
End of Summary