GoodFellows: Conversations on Economics, History & Geopolitics

Episode: Coercive Diplomacy: Venezuela, Iran, and . . . Greenland?

Date: January 8, 2026
Host/Moderator: Bill Whelan
Regulars: Niall Ferguson (Historian), John Cochrane (Economist), H.R. McMaster (Retired Lt. General, former NSC Advisor)

Overview

This episode of GoodFellows zeroes in on the US-led military action against Venezuela’s Maduro regime, examining its historical parallels, motivations behind it, the concept of "coercive diplomacy," and the regional/global ramifications—including a sudden focus on Greenland. The conversation also pivots to unrest in Iran and the precarious future for several authoritarian regimes. The panelists blend deep historical reflection with sharp contemporary analysis, constantly questioning whether recent bold action marks a productive new doctrine or simply opens a fraught new chapter.

Key Discussion Points

1. The US “Raid” on Venezuela: Why Now? What Changed?

[00:18 – 08:31]

• Moderator Bill Whelan frames the discussion with H.R. McMaster (HR) about the recent US operation to remove Nicolás Maduro and his wife, transporting them to the US for trial.
• HR traces the trajectory from Trump’s first term, noting persistent regional pressure and the continual exodus of Venezuelans affecting US domestic politics.
• Decision-making dynamics: Biden’s border policies and surges in Venezuelan migration compounded the crisis and catalyzed action.
• Trump administration’s approach: Attempted to negotiate with Maduro via diplomatic envoy before resorting to force.
• The current operation is seen as “coercive diplomacy” rather than full-fledged regime change; the US intentionally avoided "boots on the ground" or direct occupation.

Notable Quote:

“What you also see with [Trump] is he wants to make a deal first... But Maduro turned out to be intransigent, like the Iranians were intransigent…”
— H.R. McMaster, [03:29]

2. Historical Context: The 'Trump Corollary' and Precedents

[08:31 – 10:17]

• Niall Ferguson draws a parallel between the Roosevelt Corollary (1904)—US right to intervene in “badly run” hemispheric governments—and what he calls the “Trump Corollary.”
• US intervention in Venezuela is both a continuation and an evolution of this legacy: swift, precise force without prolonged entanglement.
• Concerns about the aftermath: history teaches that interventions are easier than building stable, legitimate governments.

Notable Quote:

"It's very difficult to come in and get rid of the president you don't like and then create the president you do like and expect it all to run smoothly."
— Niall Ferguson, [07:20]

3. Will This Succeed or Spawn Chaos?

[10:17 – 14:28]

• John Cochrane offers a “gloomier forecast,” predicting Venezuela could spiral into civil war and chaos given entrenched criminal networks, the remnants of the regime, and a fragmented opposition.
• The US appears uninterested in nation-building or extensive involvement beyond targeting immediate US interests (cartel influence, foreign adversaries’ presence).

Notable Quote:

“So that looks like a recipe for civil war and chaos. And I don't see any likelihood of the US putting boots on the ground and actually doing something…”
— John Cochrane, [11:16]

4. Objectives, Tools, and Limits of Coercive Diplomacy

[14:28 – 18:19]

• HR emphasizes that “coercive diplomacy” works only with clear goals. The US wants to alter Venezuela’s behavior (narco-trafficking, foreign presence), not necessarily change its entire political system.
• There are doubts among all panelists about how much the regime (with deep criminal ties and support from adversarial powers) can or will change without a wholesale replacement.

5. Oil, Geopolitics, and Real Estate Politik

[16:36 – 20:12]

• The panel discusses Trump’s fixation on oil—viewing Venezuela as a business opportunity for US firms and a strategic asset, especially as China previously benefited from Venezuelan oil.
• Niall Ferguson dubs Trump’s worldview “real estate politik”—seeing international affairs in terms of deals and assets, not just power or ideals.
• The Venezuelan move fits a pattern: hitting “weak links in the axis of authoritarians.”

Notable Quote:

“That's why I came up with the term of real estate politik as opposed to realpolitik, because for Donald Trump, realism is there's a deal to be done…”
— Niall Ferguson, [18:40]

6. Potential Ripple Effects: Greenland Distraction and 'Great Power' Reaction

[20:12 – 23:22]

• The panel turns to Trump’s revived interest in Greenland, seeing it as both a possible diversionary tactic and an extension of competition against China and Russia in the Arctic.
• The conversation underscores the global chess game—actions in Venezuela could bolster or embolden adversaries elsewhere (notably over Taiwan or Ukraine).

7. Broader Latin American Trends and Next Targets

[30:39 – 36:53]

• Panelists weigh which regimes are most vulnerable next—Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, and Nicaragua are in the crosshairs due to their ties to Venezuela, exposure to US pressure, or internal instability.
• Niall Ferguson: Cuba is in “a very, very strong position to be the next shoe to drop” given the loss of Venezuelan support and mounting internal pressures.
• The panel debates the potential for a hemisphere-wide swing away from leftist regimes due to failures in governance and external pressures.

Notable Quotes:

“I think Cuba is really worth watching at this point. Marco Rubio is Secretary of State and national security adviser simultaneously…”
— Niall Ferguson, [30:48]

“There was a pink wave in the hemisphere in the last eight years or so, and it's going to swing back because of the failure of these far left progressive governments.”
— H.R. McMaster, [32:59]

8. The Limits of US Power and the Reality of Intervention

[36:53 – 39:02]

• Analysis of US successes and failures in interventions: when the US merely creates space for local actors to reassert democracy (Panama, Dominican Republic), it can work; direct occupation is costly and complex.
• Venezuela is much bigger and more fragmented than past cases; “coercive diplomacy” is an attempt to balance minimal engagement with maximal effect.

9. Iran: On the Edge, or Eternal Resilience?

[39:02 – 47:20]

• The episode closes with a focus on Iran: ongoing protests, economic meltdown, and possible further US/Israeli strikes are discussed.
• Niall Ferguson: skepticism remains about the immediate fall of the regime given its longstanding efficacy at brutal repression.
• HR notes Trump’s support for Iranian protesters, suggesting potential for more military action, especially in coordination with Israel targeting Iranian missiles and leadership.
• Cochrane observes that Iran’s attempt to “helicopter drop” money to quell unrest is a sign of desperation, not actual relief.

Notable Quotes:

“I won't really believe that the regime's in trouble until I see members of the security forces switching sides. I haven't seen that yet.”
— Niall Ferguson, [40:01]

“Iran's currency is falling because Iran, the government of Iran is out of resources and spreading money to cover its bills. And the more money it prints and hands out, the more the inflation goes up.”
— John Cochrane, [45:07]

10. 2026: A Great Year for Freedom or Status Quo Endures?

[47:20 – 52:01]

• As the US marks its 250th year, the panel ponders if the world is at an inflection point for democracy, or if entrenched regimes will muddle through with only superficial change.
• Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane are cautiously pessimistic in the short run, more optimistic in the long run about possible openings for freer societies.

Notable Quote:

"Even although the United States is celebrating 250 years and we would love to see all the authoritarians crash down right on cue, there's another, a quite plausible scenario in which they hold on. The United States doesn't find a magic solution to the problems..."
— Niall Ferguson, [49:19]

11. Closing Wisdom: Focus on What We Can Control

[50:44 – 52:01]

• H.R. McMaster closes with Aristotelian pragmatism: the US should focus on strengthening itself and its alliances, recognizing both the limits and opportunities of intervention abroad.

Memorable/Notable Moments

• John Cochrane's Real Talk on Drug Legalization (25:00):

“Imagine drugs were legal in the US.... There would be a lot less crime because drugs would be free and a swath of the rest of the world. We'd undercut the narco terrorists...”

• Ferguson’s Real Estate Politik (18:40):

“For Donald Trump, realism is there's a deal to be done.”

• Panel’s Sober Warning on Coercive Diplomacy (38:00):

“To have the kind of peace you need to even hold an election would require immense US Military intervention. I don't see that happening.” — John Cochrane

• Generational Perspective on Regime Collapse (46:39):

“North Korea shows, if they're willing to be ruthless, they can keep going a long time into abject poverty.” — John Cochrane

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• US Venezuela Operation & Military Logic: [02:50–08:31]
• Roosevelt/Trump Corollary, Historical Parallels: [06:07–08:31]
• Forecast for Venezuela: Gloom vs. Optimism: [08:31–11:39]
• Oil and Real Estate Politik: [16:36–18:40]
• Greenland as Distraction or Deep Strategy: [20:12–23:22]
• Next Dominoes: Cuba, Nicaragua, Colombia: [30:39–36:53]
• Iran: Regime Stability & Prospects for Change: [39:02–47:20]
• 2026: Year of Freedom or Disappointment?: [47:20–52:01]
• McMaster's Summation on 'Control': [50:44–52:01]

Conclusion

The GoodFellows deliver a rich conversation, blending history, economics, strategic analysis, and a dash of dry wit. The Venezuela operation is dissected as both daring and deeply fraught, with panelists referencing the ghosts of past US interventions and the enduring unpredictability of coercive diplomacy. The panel signals caution on easy talk of democratic openings—highlighting the resilience of authoritarian regimes, the complex calculus of US power, and the enduring unpredictability of geopolitics in 2026.