GoodFellows: Drones, Dictators & Debt: India Flirts, Ukraine Fights, Trump Takes on The Fed
Hoover Institution | September 5, 2025
Panelists: Bill Whalen (moderator), Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, H.R. McMaster

Overview

In this episode, the GoodFellows—Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane (economist), Niall Ferguson (historian), and H.R. McMaster (retired Lt. Gen., former National Security Adviser)—dive into current geopolitical and economic flashpoints: India’s diplomatic balancing act, the dynamic evolution of the war in Ukraine and its heavy reliance on drones, Trump’s assertive stance toward the Fed and tariffs, and broader anxieties about the direction of American democracy. The episode is wide-ranging, with pointed analysis, historical analogies, and welcome doses of skepticism and wit.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. India’s Strategic Maneuvering: Between East and West

(Timestamps: 02:42–14:02)

• Background: Recent U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and sanctions for oil purchases from Russia prompted Indian Prime Minister Modi to join a summit with Putin and Xi.
• HR McMaster:
  • India’s behavior is not aberrant, rooted in its non-aligned traditions and deep defense ties to Russia.

    “It’s consistent with what I described … as India’s schizophrenia between fear of abandonment and fear of entrapment.” (02:51)

  • India is hedging: seeking strategic space versus China/Pakistan while calculating its long-term interests still favor stronger Western alignment.
  • Predicts eventual U.S.–India convergence: “Gravity was in our favor ... India recognizing that its long term interest lies with free market economies and representative governments like their own.” (05:29)
• Niall Ferguson:
  • This is likely more symbolism than substance. India has a pattern of “having it both ways.”

    “I can remember...Jay Shankar boasting ...about how India was so clever ... simultaneously...go to the BRICS summit and then Modi could come to Washington. ...We're not non-aligned, we're polyamorous.” (06:31)

  • Predicts Indian posturing will not lead to real alignment with China.
• John Cochrane:
  • Zero-tariff offers from India present a historic opportunity for economic reform and mutual advantage.

    “When you’re saying protect Indian agriculture, you mean keep people working the land by hand in miserable poverty for another generation...” (12:02)

  • Advocates that the U.S. accept India’s trade overtures, seeing agricultural reform as essential for Indian modernization.

2. Ukraine’s War: Drones, Attrition, and Morale

(Timestamps: 14:32–31:51)

• Niall Ferguson:
  • On the ground perspective: Upcoming trip to Kyiv; current missile and drone attacks threaten cities more than ever.
  • Emphasizes that summitry with Russia produced “nothing”—Putin desires not land, but a non-viable Ukrainian state.

    “There really isn’t any basis for a ceasefire or a peace that I can see.” (16:18)

  • Noted shift: the war is now a drone war, less dependent on manpower, potentially favoring Ukraine technologically.

    “It’s more and more a drone war, in which both sides are deploying ever larger numbers of drones ...and this is a war the Ukrainians can actually hold out in...” (16:52)

• HR McMaster:
  • Compares battlefield innovation to WWI evolutions.
  • Ukraine excels in technological adaptation: drone warfare, flexible manufacturing.

    “What they’ve done, their manufacturing base too is unbelievable. ...These people can innovate.” (21:13)

• John Cochrane:
  • On negotiation failures: The Alaska summit demonstrated irreconcilable aims—Russia seeks Ukraine’s destruction; West wants a viable independent Ukraine.
  • Praises Ukrainian effectiveness with drone swarms and posits this as a fundamental shift, raising questions about whether the U.S. defense industry can adapt as nimbly.

    “Is this the next phase? ...Ukraine is bombing Russian energy facilities...Is this...the next phase of the war?” (24:09)

  • Historical lessons: Bombing rarely breaks civilian morale.
• On Russian Economy & Chinese Support:
  • Sanctions have not worked as predicted—Chinese support and sanction leakage via third countries have shielded Russia.

    “China's support for Russia's war economy is absolutely crucial to the fact that the strains and stresses have not been as great as anticipated.” (28:17)

• On Ukrainian resilience: Remarkable capacity to repair infrastructure even amid brutal attacks.

3. Transatlantic Relations and European Instability

(Timestamps: 29:29–34:40)

• HR McMaster:
  • Recent U.S.–Europe alignment, especially after thwarted Russian efforts at the Alaska summit, has solidified, but underlying European instability remains.
• Niall Ferguson:
  • Political turmoil in Germany, France, and UK threatens transatlantic unity.

    “Your transatlantic relationships are only as good as the European allies are stable. And at this point there has to be something of a question mark over that.” (33:13)

• John Cochrane:
  • European debt crisis is looming; only robust economic growth and reduced trade barriers can resolve it.

    “For us to be united politically, it would be awfully nice to be united economically.” (34:18)

4. Trump, The Fed, and the 'Imperial Presidency'

(Timestamps: 34:40–42:08)

• John Cochrane:
  • Fed Drift: The Federal Reserve’s expanding political and fiscal role threatens central bank independence.

    “The Fed has, as predictably of all semi-independent agencies, steadily increased what it does, taken on more and more powers, started telling more and more people what to do, wandered into political causes that has no business doing.” (36:05)

• Niall Ferguson:
  • Lewd for a broader frame—Trump’s pressure on the Fed is part of larger expansion of executive authority.

    “I keep coming back to Arthur Schlesinger’s idea of the imperial presidency. ...How powerful a president is President Trump gonna be by the time he comes to the end of this second term?” (38:12)

• Dual challenge: Both right (Trump) and left (progressives like Elizabeth Warren) want to rein in Fed’s autonomy from opposite angles.

5. Fascism, Dictatorship, and U.S. Democratic Norms

(Timestamps: 48:11–62:32)

• Prompted by media and elite concerns comparing Trump to interwar fascism.
• Niall Ferguson:
  • Historical comparisons are vastly overstated; actual fascist states were much more violent, militaristic, and repressive.

    “If you think this is fascism, then come to my time machine. We’ll go to Berlin in 1938...I think you’d find a pretty different place from any American city in 2025.” (52:19)

  • Legal challenges and checks persist in the U.S.; expansion of executive power is a decades-long bipartisan trend.

    “Everything that is happening under this president is being challenged in the courts. And that is not what was happening in Germany, I can assure you.” (54:45)

• John Cochrane:
  • Main risk is not fascism, but excessive concentration of executive power: “...we're going and seeming to accept a system where we elect a king for four years ...and that is not [the Founders' design].” (61:46)
• HR McMaster:
  • Fascism analogies remove agency from the American people, who retain sovereignty and the ability to vote leaders out.

6. Industrial Policy: U.S. Buying into Intel

(Timestamps: 42:08–47:46)

• John Cochrane:
  • Government equity in Intel is poor policy: leads to inefficiency, politicized management, and has failed elsewhere (“You want to see where this leads? Look at our friend France”). (42:47)
• HR McMaster:
  • Government support was deemed a national security necessity—tied to semiconductor supply chain vulnerabilities due to reliance on Taiwan.
• Niall Ferguson:
  • State capitalism and government picking corporate winners yields convergence with adversaries, not competitive advantage.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Indian foreign policy:

  "We’re not non-aligned anymore; we’re polyamorous."
  —Niall Ferguson (06:37)

• On executive power and fascism:

  "Everything that is happening under this president is being challenged in the courts... we're not even close to knowing how many of these cases that the administration is going to lose."
  —Niall Ferguson (54:54)

• On the drone war:

  "...they're manufacturing base too is unbelievable... These people can innovate."
  —H.R. McMaster on Ukraine (21:13)

• On central bank roles:

  "The Fed kind of broke that, and now all hell breaks loose."
  —John Cochrane (36:47)

• On Europe’s debt threat:

  "We may be on the edge of the widely anticipated European wide sovereign debt crisis."
  —John Cochrane (33:37)

• On popular analogies to fascism:

  “If you think this is fascism, then come to my time machine. We’ll go to Berlin in 1938.”
  —Niall Ferguson (52:19)

• On populist government:

  "We are not a democracy that elects a king every four years who can do whatever he wants. And that I think, is the danger."
  —John Cochrane (61:46)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• India geopolitics & tariffs: 02:42–14:02
• Ukraine: Drones and strategy: 14:32–31:51
• European instability & transatlantic relations: 29:29–34:40
• Trump, tariffs, and Fed independence: 34:56–42:08
• US govt stake in Intel, industrial policy: 42:08–47:46
• Defining fascism, executive power worries: 48:11–61:46

Tone and Style

The conversation is intellectually rigorous, playful, and direct. Panelists challenge each other's assumptions, cite historical evidence, and land complex arguments in accessible, at times wry, language.

Summary Takeaway

The episode vividly illustrates the complexity of today’s global and domestic landscape. India’s diplomatic flexibility, Ukraine’s technological adaptation, and the structural debates over the nature of the American executive and central bank reveal a world in flux, but not chaos. The panel consistently counsels skepticism toward alarmist analogies, underlines the strength of democratic institutions, and—through their banter—suggests the value of open, informed debate in navigating times of uncertainty.