GoodFellows Podcast Summary

Episode Title: Trick or Treat? A Fight Between Good and Evil with Michael McFaul
Date: October 29, 2025
Host/Moderator: Bill Whelan
GoodFellows Panel: John Cochrane (Economist), H.R. McMaster (Retired Lt. General, Former National Security Advisor)
Featured Guest: Michael McFaul (Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Hoover Fellow, Author of "Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, America, Russia and the New Global Disorder")

Episode Overview

This episode of GoodFellows dives into the global battle between autocracy and democracy, the evolving competition between China, Russia, and the U.S., and assesses the West’s resolve to confront threats to the international order. Anchored by insights from Michael McFaul—on the day his book releases—the first half focuses sharply on U.S.-Russia relations, Ukraine, and the wider implications for world order. The latter half treats listeners to a lively segment where panelists label current news issues as "tricks" or "treats" in the spirit of Halloween, blending foreign policy with cultural commentary.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Stakes in Ukraine: Framing the Global Contest

• McFaul's Core Message:
  The confrontation in Ukraine is not just about borders or regional struggle; it is, at its heart, a fight between good and evil—democracy versus autocracy. Putin is depicted as a “barbaric imperialist” whose ambitions span far beyond Ukraine.
• Quote:
  “This is a fight between good and evil. Putin is evil. He is a barbaric imperialist... The Ukrainians, they’re on the side of good.”
  (McFaul, 02:45)
• Implications Beyond Europe:
  McFaul draws parallels between Ukraine’s significance and global perceptions, particularly referencing visits to Taiwan where Ukrainian flags were spotted, highlighting the interconnectedness of these struggles for democracies globally.
• Quote:
  “I saw a lot of Ukrainian flags in Taiwan because they understand how these things are intertwined.”
  (McFaul, 03:23)

2. U.S. Policy Toward Russia Through Presidential Lenses

• Consistent Errors:
  McMaster and McFaul reflect on the repeated miscalculations by U.S. administrations—Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden—in underestimating the ideological drivers of Putin’s regime and mistaking his motives as rooted merely in security concerns.
• Quote:
  “What really drives him and makes him more aggressive... is [a] kind of obsession with restoring Russia to national greatness based on the sense of honor lost at the end of the Cold War.”
  (McMaster, 07:31)
• McFaul’s Take:
  Putin’s greatest fear is not NATO expansion but the spread of democracy; he is ideologically motivated, not transactional.
• Quote:
  “It’s democratic expansion. … If there is a democracy in Ukraine, that’s a threat to Putin.”
  (McFaul, 12:37)

3. Weapons and Aid: Slow Response, Strategic Risks

• The Incremental Approach Critique:
  All participants critique the piecemeal approach to arming Ukraine—arguing that decisive early support could have changed the war’s trajectory.
• Quote:
  “I just wish we would have done it all back then... the incrementalism... has not led to good outcomes.”
  (McFaul, 04:24)
• McFaul on Tomahawk Missiles Debates:
  Advocates for providing Ukraine with advanced weapons, deferring military technicalities to Generals, but insisting on greater U.S. and allied commitment.

4. Broader Authoritarian Ambitions: Russia and China

• Putin’s Grand Design:
  Determined to fracture Europe and demolish NATO cohesion, Putin weaponizes ideological and cultural divisions across democracies to weaken resistance.
• Quote:
  “He wants to break down the liberal international order... He absolutely does. He wants to go back to a world of spheres of influence.”
  (McFaul, 17:44)
• Ideological Competition:
  Putinism framed as a genuine ideology—an illiberal nationalist counterweight to Western liberalism.

5. Autocrats vs. Democrats: Book Insights

• Main Thesis:
  The struggle is not just about power, but the nature of regimes (“autocrats vs democrats”) and individual leaders. History shows the West’s collective advantages—if marshaled effectively.
• Comparisons to the Cold War:
  Key difference: China’s economic model is far more competitive than the Soviet Union’s, making the challenge for the West more complex.
• Quote:
  “China is growing today not because of communism, but because they pulled back on communism and introduced market reforms.”
  (McFaul, 24:42)
• Call to Action:
  McFaul urges engaging ordinary Americans—not just elites—in making the case for international leadership and democracy promotion.

6. Willpower, Isolationism, and American Resolve

• Concerns Over U.S. Commitment:
  Persistent worries about the U.S. “pulling back”—isolationism and polarization threaten alliances and staying power.
• Audience Engagement:
  McFaul shares positive reactions during book talks in non-coastal regions, disputing coastal stereotypes of American indifference.
• Quote:
  “When I talk about good and evil... those are the biggest applause lines.”
  (McFaul, 29:43)

7. Guarded Optimism for the Future

• Ending Note:
  McFaul’s book epilogue: “Don’t bet against America yet.” When the free world’s resources and organizational capability are fully realized, democracies still hold the edge.
• Quote:
  “Our ideas are better than their ideas... If we invest in them, I’m confident we will prevail in this new Cold War.”
  (McFaul, 34:52)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• McFaul on Putin’s Evolution (12:37):
  “He was an accidental president... but over time what happened and what really frightens him is not NATO expansion... it’s democratic expansion.”
• McMaster on U.S. Resolve (31:53):
  "The people who went to Afghanistan and Iraq... justly look around and say, what was that for? So, you know, having some persistence in our strategic goals... would do a lot to making people more comfortable."
• Cochrane’s Analogy on Russia/China (22:32):
  “Russia is the Cuba of the Cold War. ... Now China is the issue, of course.”
• McFaul’s Home Truth for Policymakers (28:15):
  “The idea that we're going to crush them through tariffs is absurd. ... It's to reform [the system] and make it more supportive of capitalism, not withdraw.”

Trick-or-Treat Segment Highlights

(Sampled for political/cultural relevance; for full context, refer to timestamps below.)

White House East Wing Demolition (37:41–40:52)

• Treat/Trick?
  Panel agrees it's both symbolic of Washington dysfunction (regulation overload) and the dangers of shortcuts with transparency.

China’s Purge of Generals (41:05–42:59)

• Treat (HR):
  “This is kind of the brittleness of an authoritarian regime like the Chinese Communist Party.”

U.S. Inflation & Gold Prices (43:00–44:04)

• Cochrane:
  “Inflation’s like cockroaches. When you’re down to the last two, that doesn’t mean you’re over.” (43:08)

Argentina’s Economic Reform (44:20–46:36)

• Treat, Cautious Optimism:
  Panel hails Argentine voters for supporting bold reforms, contrasting the U.S.’s current incrementalism.

Tariffs and Trade Policy (47:05–50:38)

• Cochrane:
  “Tariffs are a tax that gets paid by consumers and makes the economy less efficient...but as a geopolitical slap they’re sometimes useful.”

U.S. Citizenship Test Changes (53:06–54:57)

• McMaster:
  “Heck, those who go through the legal immigration process... are our most patriotic citizens. They know more civics than anybody who graduates from any of our universities.”

Key Timestamps

• 02:39 — McFaul: Framing Ukraine as a fight between good and evil, and the need for greater U.S. support.
• 07:13 — McMaster questions the recurring U.S. errors in understanding Putin.
• 12:37 — McFaul details Putin’s evolution and ideological fear of democracy.
• 17:08 — Putin’s broader ambitions, NATO, and dividing the West.
• 22:32 — Cochrane: Russia as "Cuba of the Cold War," China as the real economic rival.
• 28:15 — McFaul argues for positive international economic competition rather than just tariffs.
• 29:43 — Engagement with broader America and the enduring appetite for “good versus evil.”
• 34:52 — McFaul’s “guarded optimism” and why not to bet against America.
• 37:41–44:57 — Trick or Treat segment: White House renovations, China's military purge, inflation, gold.
• 44:20–47:05 — Argentina's political reforms and U.S. economic implications.
• 47:05–50:38 — Tariffs as economic tool and foreign policy weapon.
• 53:06–54:57 — Citizenship test changes: A barrier or a necessary challenge?
• 55:13 — Lighthearted closer: Panel's favorite Halloween candies.

Tone & Language

• Conversational, candid, and occasionally irreverent.
• Academic rigor mixed with personal stories and humor.
• Eagerness to connect broad geopolitical themes to practical policy and the lived reality of citizens.

Resources

• Michael McFaul's book:
  Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, America, Russia, and the New Global Disorder
• Follow McFaul:
  X (formerly Twitter), Substack, Hoover Institution

Conclusion

This episode delivers a rich, urgent, and multidimensional look at the most consequential global struggle of our time: the contest between autocratic and democratic systems, with war in Ukraine as the frontline. The conversation is notable for its candor—about past U.S. mistakes, the complex motivations of adversaries, and the daunting, yet winnable, challenges ahead for the free world. The light-hearted "Trick or Treat" segment offers a creative lens to evaluate current affairs, keeping the conversation grounded and relatable.