GoodFellows: Turning Points – Kyiv, Kirk, Kimmel, and the Sundance Kid

Podcast: GoodFellows: Conversations from the Hoover Institution
Episode Air Date: September 19, 2025
Guests: John Cochrane, Niall Ferguson, H.R. McMaster
Host: Bill Whelan

Episode Overview

This episode of GoodFellows explores "turning points" through major global and American moments. The panel dives into three headline topics: the evolving war in Ukraine following Niall Ferguson’s recent trip to Kyiv; the political and cultural fallout from conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s assassination; and a reflection on the legacy of Robert Redford. The discussion emphasizes shifts in warfare technology, the state of American civil discourse, the role of government censorship, and the decline of shared cultural and media institutions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The War in Ukraine: Kyiv as Europe’s War

Timestamps: 01:22 – 14:28

Atmosphere in Wartime Kyiv

• Niall Ferguson recounts his fourth visit to Kyiv during wartime, describing a city now shaped by nightly Russian missile and drone strikes—far more intense than in earlier phases (01:22).
  • “The war is so much more a part of life in the capital city than it was previously... these are drone strikes, but also strikes with cruise missiles. They're now happening pretty much nightly.” – Niall Ferguson [01:22]
  • “It's very sobering... to see an entire apartment building taken out by a missile. Not by accident, of course... 23 Ukrainian men, women and children died in that one strike.” – Ferguson [01:51]
• The mood has shifted from the Ukrainian optimism in 2022 to a somber war-weariness: “The mood is much more somber in Kyiv today.” – Ferguson [02:01]

Russian Tactics and the Drone War

• Russia deliberately targets civilians to undermine morale, a tactic at odds with WWII-era theories that such bombing doesn't work—yet the psychological toll seems genuine in 2025 (04:32–05:51).
  • “There's a determined Russian effort to undermine Ukrainian morale, and it's had an effect... but I saw no sign that Ukrainians were willing to fold.” – Ferguson [05:51]
• Militarily, Ukraine has shifted to relying on drones, leveraging qualitative technical superiority even as Russia tries to overwhelm them quantitatively (06:44–09:11).
  • “A war of men is a war... hard for Ukraine to win because they’re just outnumbered. But they can hold their own in a drone war.” – Ferguson [08:00]

Military Stalemate and Technology

• H.R. McMaster reinforces that both sides lack offensive mobility, likening the static front to WWI, but with drones now extending the ‘no man’s land’ (09:11):
  • “Essentially neither side can gain... the ability to sustain offensive operations. Ukrainians have substituted drones for manpower.” – McMaster [09:15]
  • “The next iteration is going to be swarm drones... this new form of warfare has not replaced the old, it’s been grafted on.” – McMaster [10:25]

European Responsibility & Future Outlook

• With diminished U.S. aid, Ferguson says Ukraine’s fate now depends on European rearmament, but warns against buying outdated systems instead of future-ready tech (13:10).
  • “It’s Europe’s war, and Europe has to figure out how exactly it can give Ukraine victory. Because a draw, a tie isn’t a very appetizing prospect.” – Ferguson [14:18]

2. The Assassination of Charlie Kirk and American Civil Discourse

Timestamps: 14:28 – 32:48

Significance of Kirk’s Murder

• Ferguson: For Europeans, the event represented America’s slide toward political violence reminiscent of the 1960s/1980s, and was “a terrible moment in modern American political history” (15:16).
  • “Everybody around that table realized this was a terrible moment... a disturbing tendency for the United States to revert to patterns of political violence.” – Ferguson [15:57]

Global and Domestic Ramifications

• McMaster fears such violence will embolden adversaries (China, Russia, Iran) by signaling internal instability:
  • “It communicates weakness to our adversaries... this cycle of violence communicates lack of confidence in our system and our political institutions.” – McMaster [17:03]
• John Cochrane highlights the tragic irony—Kirk stood for peaceful debate—while noting disturbing celebratory reactions from some on the left (18:34):
  • “A particular tragedy is... what Charlie Kirk stood for is respectful, peaceful... dialogue in place of political violence.” – Cochrane [18:34]

The Media Response: Jimmy Kimmel’s Suspension

• The panel discusses comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s on-air comments and subsequent suspension, raising concerns about both “cancel culture” and government threats to free expression (20:55–24:00).
  • “It would be a bitter irony if the murderer of Charlie Kirk... were to furnish a pretext for free speech violations by government agencies.” – Ferguson [20:55]
• They stress the difference between private and government censorship, and the dangers of expanding federal regulatory power (24:11):
  • “Government shutting you up is the violation of First Amendment... When the government has the power, it's going to use it.” – Cochrane [24:11]

Institutional Decline in Media

• The loss of nonpolitical, unifying media institutions like late-night TV is noted as symptomatic of deeper polarization. McMaster shares a personal anecdote about media booking demands for anti-Trump remarks (26:56).
  • “There is kind of an orthodoxy now... even comedians... you have to condemn President Trump and recommend that nobody vote for him.” – McMaster [26:56]

3. Is This a Watershed Moment?

Timestamps: 28:33 – 32:39

• McMaster references Governor Spencer Cox’s appeal for a national choice: “Do we go down the path of going to the bar fight with the bumping up with the next weapon, or do we decide... let's be civil to each other?” [28:50]
• Cochrane is skeptical these events will trigger true change: “I wish this wonderful young man's life could attain more mythic status. But, I don’t think so...” [29:59]
• Ferguson hopes Kirk’s commitment to free speech will inspire a recommitment to civil discourse across the spectrum: “The best turning point... is that everyone... gets the message that the United States of America is about free speech, civil discourse, not civil war.” [30:32]
• Cochrane warns against “catastrophism” as fuel for extremes and violence: “What justifies these kinds of extreme feelings is the rhetoric of a catastrophe is coming... Notch down the rhetoric a little.” [31:46]

4. Remembering Robert Redford & Cultural Common Ground

Timestamps: 33:23 – End

• The hosts reflect on Redford’s iconic legacy and the disintegration of shared, cross-generational cultural touchstones.
  • “He played paratroopers, he played politicians, he played spies... He never played an economist.” – Cochrane [35:39]
  • “All the President’s Men... inspired a generation of journalists... also to believe that they could be as good looking as Robert Redford, which no journalist has ever been or will ever be.” – Ferguson [36:10]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “There’s a determined Russian effort to undermine Ukrainian morale, and it's had an effect... but I saw no sign that Ukrainians were willing to fold.” – Niall Ferguson [05:51]
• “The next iteration is going to be swarm drones... this new form of warfare has not replaced the old, it's been grafted on...” – H.R. McMaster [10:25]
• “This is now Europe’s war because the United States is no longer supplying aid to Ukraine... Only with European support can Ukraine prevail.” – Niall Ferguson [13:15]
• “It communicates weakness to our adversaries... China, Russia, and Iran in particular tried to bend this assassination in the direction of their interests.” – H.R. McMaster [17:03]
• “There was instead an outpouring, primarily from the left... of great, how wonderful that this guy got it. He deserved it.” – John Cochrane [18:34]
• “It would be a bitter irony if the murderer of Charlie Kirk... were to furnish a pretext for free speech violations by government agencies.” – Niall Ferguson [20:55]
• “We are in an era, unfortunately, of escalating tit for tat... at what point do we say enough is enough?” – John Cochrane [24:11]
• “There is kind of an orthodoxy now, you know, that has gripped even comedians...” – H.R. McMaster [26:56]
• “The best turning point... is that everyone... gets the message that the United States of America is about free speech, civil discourse, not civil war.” – Niall Ferguson [30:32]
• “We also need to stop catastrophism... If you believe that, well then... that would justify political violence.” – John Cochrane [31:46]

Episode Tone, Structure, and Takeaways

The tone is thoughtful, direct, and often somber—echoing the gravity of both the war in Ukraine and the epochal sense of American political violence. Yet the banter among panelists provides moments of warmth and wit, especially in their reminiscence about Robert Redford.

The conversation threads a consistent warning: that both western security and American civic life hinge upon reconnecting with principles of honest debate, institutional humility, and caution against either fatalism or hysteria. This episode stands out for its firsthand insights, big-picture reflections, and clear-eyed skepticism regarding both progress and decline.

For listeners who missed the episode:
You'll come away understanding not only the evolving tactical and psychological landscape of the Ukraine war, but also the complexities and risks in America's battered information and political culture, all framed by a sharp, relatable, and at times nostalgic roundtable.