The United States is fast approaching the end of a lengthy presidential campaign in which the issue of immigration has taken center stage.

Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris for failing to protect America’s borders, with Trump’s misleading claims that immigrants in Ohio are eating people’s pets emerging as one of the defining moments of the race so far. Harris, on the other hand, has gone on the offensive, blaming Trump for sabotaging a bipartisan Senate bill that would have beefed up border protection.

Amidst this back-and-forth, there’s been relatively little attention paid to the changing composition of who exactly is trying to enter the United States without prior authorization. Since 2020, India has emerged as the country of origin for the largest number of migrants attempting to enter the U.S. outside of the Western Hemisphere.

A new analysis by the Niskanen Center, “Indian migrants at the U.S. border: What the data reveals,” digs into what we know—and what we don’t—about this surge from India. The authors of this new analysis, Gil Guerra and Sneha Puri, join Milan on the show this week to talk about their new research.

Gil is an Immigration Policy Analyst at the Niskanen Center, where he focuses on immigration and foreign policy, migrant integration, and demographic trends at the U.S.-Mexico border. And Sneha is an Immigration Policy Fellow at the Niskanen Center, focusing on a wide range of immigration policy issues such as legal migration pathways, employment-based visas, and irregular migration.

The three discuss the data on irregular migration, the surge in Indian “encounters” at the border, and the reasons behind the spike. Plus, the trio discuss the similarities and differences between Chinese and Indian migration, the recent controversies around Khalistani separatists in the diaspora, and the policy options facing the next U.S. president.

Episode notes:

1. Gil Guerra and Sneha Puri, “Indian migrants at the U.S. border: What the data reveals,” Niskanen Center, September 16, 2024.

2. Gil Guerra, “Four countries that will shape migration in 2024 – and beyond,” Niskanen Center, April 1, 2024.

3. Sergio Martinez-Beltran, “Indian migrants drive surge in northern U.S. border crossings,” NPR, September 10, 2024.

4. Sanjoy Chakravorty, Devesh Kapur, and Nirvikar Singh, The Other One Percent: Indians in America (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016).

5. Devesh Kapur and Milan Vaishnav, “Industrial Policy Needs an Immigration Policy,” Foreign Affairs, August 22, 2024.

6. Terry Milewski, Blood for Blood: Fifty Years of the Global Khalistan Project (New York: Harper Collins, 2021).

7. Aparna Pande, From Chanakya to Modi: Evolution of India's Foreign Policy (New Delhi: Harper Collins India, 2017).

8. “Dr. S. Jaishankar on the Future of U.S.-India Relations,” Grand Tamasha, October 2, 2024.

9. “The India-Canada Conundrum (with Sanjay Ruparelia),” Grand Tamasha, November 8, 2023.

Understanding Irregular Indian Migration to the United States