Green & Red Podcast #470
Title: Trump's Aggression Against Iran Continues
Guest: Professor Eskandar Sadeghi (University of St. Andrews)
Date: February 25, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode features historian Bob Buzzanco in conversation with Professor Eskandar Sadeghi, a scholar of Iranian history and politics at the University of St. Andrews. The discussion centers on the aftermath of the recent escalation between the U.S., Israel, and Iran—particularly following what’s become known as the "12 Day War"—and explores the impact of sanctions, internal unrest, and the interplay of regional and international actors. Sadeghi debunks simplistic media narratives, contextualizes Iran's domestic dynamics, and challenges prevailing perspectives on regime opponents and protest movements.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Aftermath of the "12 Day War" and International Maneuverings

• [02:02] Sadeghi details the June conflict: Israel’s Operation "Rising Lion" was an unprovoked attack featuring the assassination of top Revolutionary Guard commanders and an attempt on Iran’s chief negotiator.
• Attack occurred just before planned US-Iran talks in Oman, suggesting a calculated effort to disrupt diplomacy.
• Confirmation (even in mainstream U.S. sources) that the attack was coordinated to catch Iran off guard.
• Despite Israel’s superior air power, Iran managed to hit Israeli targets, inflicting unexpected costs (e.g., the Weizmann Institute); while Iranian casualties were over 1,000, Israeli losses were relatively minor but notable.

  "Iran was able to launch a significant number of missiles and able to penetrate the Iron Dome...I don't think Israel had previously really experienced [such a cost]." – Sadeghi [03:33]

• Post-war: Increasing pressure from the Trump administration, enhanced cooperation between Netanyahu and Washington, escalation in sanctions, and mounting economic woes for Iran due to over a decade of "economic warfare."

2. Domestic Repercussions: Sanctions and Protests

• [08:12] The severe depreciation of Iran’s currency and worsening living conditions have fueled widespread protests.
• Sadeghi explains that sanctions are not only designed to target the state but deliberately inflict hardship on ordinary Iranians, exacerbating class divisions and empowering corrupt, well-connected elites.

  "Sanctions...are designed to do this. The architects of empire are very frank...We are doing this to impoverish the population so they will rise up." [10:56]

• He references Richard Nephew’s book The Art of Sanctions to highlight the granular, intentional harm inflicted (e.g., spiking poultry prices around holidays).
• Protests are both political and socioeconomic in origin; grievances are varied and regionally distinct.

3. The Organic Nature of Protests and Influence of Foreign Narratives

• [15:24] While some accuse all protest of being foreign-orchestrated, Sadeghi stresses the genuine, grassroots origins—though external actors seek to exploit and amplify unrest.
• Iranian protest movements span workers, teachers, women, and various ethnic groups (e.g., Kurds, Baloch). While not always centrally organized, these protests often explode from local issues into nationwide actions.
• Key historic protest waves: 2017-18 (economic/political), 2019 (fuel subsidy removal), and 2022’s "Woman, Life, Freedom."

  "Where does organizing end and spontaneity begin? ...No one is planning to launch protests that encompass 100 cities overnight." [15:55]

• The Iranian state deploys violence to suppress dissent but also alleges foreign meddling; Sadeghi warns against reducing these complexities to "conspiracy theories."

  "Conspiracy theory offers us a simplistic answer...Reality is we have multiple social forces at play—domestic and international." [22:34]

4. Nationalism, External Threats, and the Regime's Legitimacy

• [23:07] Even those critical of the Islamic Republic often oppose outside intervention, especially in wartime.

  "Most people...are very skeptical about the U.S. being able to 'liberate' them, quote unquote." [23:53]

• Wartime Israeli and U.S. tactics have fueled both resistance and, paradoxically, some support for the government, as people rally against foreign attack.

5. The Diaspora, Reza Pahlavi, and "Monarchist" Revisionism

• [30:22] Sadeghi assesses the role of exiled opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi, the late Shah's son, in diaspora and international propaganda.

  "He's essentially a scarecrow, used by the Israelis for anti-regime purposes...But despite some uptick, the idea he could actually return to power is far-fetched." [33:48]

• Discussion on the state-endorsed destruction of internal opposition, mirroring tactics used by regimes like Assad’s Syria—leaving only extremes as "choices."
• Israeli and U.S. amplification of Pahlavi is strategic, but he’s not seen as a credible alternative by policy-makers.

6. Greater Israel, Regional Dynamics, and Gulf Arab Cautiousness

• [38:25] Israel’s regional ambitions and recent U.S. bellicosity have spooked Gulf states—but they lack leverage with Washington.

  "The Israelis have more power of persuasion than the Gulf states...even the UAE, a close ally, is unwilling to allow attacks from their soil." [41:04]

• Even tactical anti-Iranian cooperation is measured, as the Gulf states fear the fallout of major conflict.

7. Potential for Broader War and Iranian Calculus

• [43:31] Supreme Leader Khamenei has warned of regionalizing any future conflict if attacked ("they will regionalize the conflict").
• Sadeghi suggests the approach may shift from calibrated deterrence to more direct, costly reprisals, possibly targeting U.S. bases and assets.
• Iran is preparing for large-scale conflict, including potential decapitation strikes by the U.S./Israel.

8. U.S. Domestic Politics and Groupthink

• [48:28] In the U.S., there’s bipartisan support for hawkish policy; military skepticism is a rare moderating force.

  "In a lot of ways, the only—even if not moderate—the only force for less than total destruction is the U.S. military establishment." – Buzzanco [48:46] "There's real danger of groupthink, especially after successes like the kidnapping of Maduro in Venezuela." – Sadeghi [49:18]

• The administration is moving enormous firepower into position, raising doubts about mere posturing.

9. Lack of Policy Rationale and the Diminishing of Liberal Pretense

• The stated rationales (nuclear threat, human rights) are increasingly unconvincing, even acknowledged as pretexts by U.S. officials.
• Sadeghi highlights the role of donor and media pressure (e.g., Fox News, Israeli government, major GOP donors) in perpetuating U.S. escalation.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Sanctions:

  "Sanctions are invisible...they're not like bombs, but we know even from WWI—economic blockades killed more people than gas or bombings." – Eskandar Sadeghi [12:04]

• On Foreign Meddling and Protest:

  "The reality is, I have seen footage of people with rifles, clearly organized, with guns armed as well, who aren't from the state...But the catastrophe is a state which has killed thousands of its own citizens." – Sadeghi [20:45]

• On Reza Pahlavi:

  "He's essentially being used as a scarecrow...the Israelis have a concerted strategy to push him." – Sadeghi [35:16]

• On Israeli Strategic Aims:

  "Now there's this idea of Greater Israel...Israel is unchecked, that's what they need to worry about." – Sadeghi [40:12]

• On U.S. Policy:

  "There’s not even any pretense anymore...even need to dress it up in the language of liberalism or the international rules-based order.” – Sadeghi [53:34]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• [00:06] – Introduction and profile of Eskandar Sadeghi
• [02:02] – The 12 Day War, aftermath, Israeli actions, U.S.-Iran talks
• [08:12] – Economic crisis in Iran, impact of sanctions, protest dynamics
• [15:24] – The structure, spontaneity, and regional diversity of protests
• [23:07] – State use of nationalism, parallels to other regimes
• [30:22] – Discussion of Reza Pahlavi, external propaganda, diaspora politics
• [38:25] – Regional context: Israel’s rhetoric, Gulf states’ response
• [43:31] – Possibility of wider war, Iran’s potential responses
• [48:28] – U.S. political consensus, military reservations about escalation
• [53:34] – The erosion of policy pretense, U.S. motives and media complicity
• [59:04] – Military mobilization and public preparedness in Iran
• [61:07] – Will Gulf states try to mediate or contain a conflict?
• [65:51] – Lighthearted closing on military mishap, wrap-up and resources

Additional Notes

• Sadeghi discusses his newly written introduction for Fred Halliday’s Dictatorships and Development, reflecting on the need to revisit marginalized scholarship amid new waves of monarchist "revisionism." [67:19]
• The tone, as throughout Green & Red, is radical, irreverent, and deeply critical of both Western imperial strategies and authoritarianism within Iran.
• The discussion avoids simplifications, insisting on the interplay of structural oppression, foreign interference, and grassroots agency in shaping the crisis.

For Further Reading & Listening

• Eskandar Sadeghi’s writings in New Left Review and London Review of Books
• The Art of Sanctions by Richard Nephew (for insights into U.S. sanctions policy)
• Fred Halliday, Dictatorships and Development (new edition, introduction by Sadeghi)

This summary captures the essence and complexity of the conversation—grounding analysis in historical context, challenging dominant narratives, and reflecting the voices and concerns within and beyond Iran’s borders.