GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Episode: Gaming out a US-Venezuela war with ambassador James Story
Date: November 22, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, Ian Bremmer sits down with Ambassador James Story—who uniquely served as U.S. ambassador to Venezuela under both Trump and Biden administrations—to explore the dramatic escalation in U.S.-Venezuela tensions. The discussion covers the likelihood and risks of U.S. military intervention, the geopolitical and regional consequences, and the complexities of potential regime change. Utilizing Story’s diplomatic experience, the conversation “games out” several scenarios, evaluates historical analogies (Iraq, Panama, Libya), and considers how any intervention would affect Venezuela’s shattered institutions and wider Latin America.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Shift Toward Military Action

• Likelihood of Military Intervention:

  • Previously, Story estimated a 10% likelihood of U.S. strikes on Venezuela; now he sees an 80% chance, while Bremmer asserts it’s near-certain.
  • “You're either going to use [America's military assets], or there's going to be a net negative if you don't.” (James Story, 02:52)

• Escalation Indicators:

  • Buildup of military in the Caribbean, arrival of specialized forces, and deployment of aircraft carrier Gerald Ford signal serious consideration of kinetic action.

Motivation and Goals for Intervention

• What's Changed?

  • Shift from diplomatic engagement to a more militarized stance, with the Trump administration sending mixed messages—ultimatums, deployment, and overt pressure.
  • “The Cubans, this is an existential problem... they’re going to ensure that [Maduro] doesn’t get weak in the knees and leaves just because there happens to be 10% of the US Navy off his doorstep.” (James Story, 03:48)

• Likely Demands:

  • Any ultimatum from Trump would likely hinge on Maduro’s departure, but given Cuban support and vested criminal interests, it’s unlikely to work without force.

Regime Change: Easy to Remove, Difficult to Rebuild

• Military Victory vs. Post-Conflict Challenges:

  • Removing Maduro seen as “the easy part”; the real challenge is state reconstruction after two decades of institutional decay.
  • “For 25 years, the institutions in that country have been systematically destroyed. And how do you trust any part of a government whose sole purpose was keeping a criminal organization functioning?” (James Story, 05:33)
  • Former criminal networks, dissident armed groups (FARC, ELN, Hezbollah, etc.), and general lawlessness mean the military is needed post-intervention for security.

• Who Decides Venezuela’s Future?

  • Ambiguity over U.S. role—whether the U.S., interim opposition, or international coalition would manage the transition.
  • Reference to “Pottery Barn Rule”—if the U.S. breaks it, “they own it” (Colin Powell principle). (09:04)

Public Support and Regional Politics

• Venezuelan Sentiment:

  • Story believes most Venezuelans, desperate for change after failed negotiations, elections, and protests, would support U.S.-led action—“even inaction.”
  • But, public support depends heavily on “how it’s done.”
  • “So I do believe that there's an overwhelming majority that would like to see [Maduro] gone and are okay with the United States doing it. The question really becomes, well, how does the United States do it?” (James Story, 10:41)

• Regional and International Pushback:

  • Latin American neighbors (Colombia, Chile, Brazil, even Mexico) haven’t explicitly supported U.S. policy.
  • Legal and moral concerns raised by UK and others about extrajudicial killings and lack of due process. Intelligence cooperation with allies is already strained.

Negotiation Failures and Maduro’s Strategy

• Failed Dialogues:
  • Previous U.S. attempts at negotiation (via Rick Grenell, others) were either exploited by the regime or led to no meaningful change.
  • “Dialogue to [Maduro] is monologue to any other human. What he really wants is just to tell us how it's going to be.” (James Story, 15:12)
  • Migration remains a major destabilizing factor for the region—largest movement in hemisphere’s history, with 9 million Venezuelans displaced.

Rebuilding and the Question of Amnesty

• Role of Opposition Leader Maria Corina Machado:
  • She’s positioned as the transition’s face, but Story urges her to articulate a clear, inclusive transition plan—especially for officials who could become allies in stabilizing the country.
  • “I would be very, very public in my plans on how we're going to put together a government for all Venezuelans in the future.” (James Story, 20:29)
  • Amnesty: Partial, not blanket. Those guilty of crimes against humanity likely excluded; necessary to reassure non-criminal officials.

Is Military Regime Change a Good Idea?

• Moral and Practical Concerns:

  • Story: Regime change is good for Venezuela and the region—but direct U.S.-led intervention is risky, and success depends entirely on execution.
  • “I think it's a good idea for regime change to happen in Venezuela... The question is, is it a good idea for the United States to actually bring about that regime change? Very, very different question.” (Ian Bremmer / James Story, 23:50-24:01)

• Lessons from History:

  • References to Panama and Noriega, Iraq and de-Ba'athification, Haiti, Libya—U.S. must avoid earlier mistakes, and rebuilding will be “hard work.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Escalation:
  “You're either going to use [America's military assets], or there's going to be a net negative if you don't. These are big, powerful resources that are just simply too powerful to go after narcotics trafficking boats.”
  — James Story, (02:52)

• On Rebuilding:
  “The easy part would be getting rid of Maduro... The hard work happens after that.”
  — James Story, (05:33)

• On Maduro’s Support:
  “The majority of people in Venezuela are so desperate for change... So I do believe that there's an overwhelming majority that would like to see him gone and are okay with the United States doing it.”
  — James Story, (10:41)

• On Failed Negotiations:
  “Dialogue to him is monologue to any other human. What he really wants is just to tell us how it's going to be.”
  — James Story, (15:12)

• On Opposition’s Message:
  “I would be very, very public in my plans on how we're going to put together a government for all Venezuelans in the future.”
  — James Story, (20:29)

• On Regime Change:
  “I think it would be a bad idea [for U.S. military intervention], depending on how you go about it. I think it's a good idea for regime change to happen in Venezuela... The question is, is it a good idea for the United States to actually bring about that regime change? Very, very different question.”
  — James Story & Ian Bremmer, (23:21–24:01)

Timestamps & Segment Guide

• [00:02] – Episode introduction, U.S.-Venezuela tensions overview
• [02:18] – Ambassador Story's assessment of military likelihood and shifts in U.S. strategy
• [03:34] – The potential for a Trump ultimatum, Cuban stakes in Maduro’s survival
• [05:33] – Post-conflict challenges: institutions, security, criminal groups
• [07:10] – The dilemma of trusting or disbanding Venezuela’s military
• [09:04] – Who should lead the transition? U.S. role, opposition input, Pottery Barn analogy
• [10:23] – Public opinion in Venezuela about U.S.-led regime change
• [12:17] – Why did diplomatic attempts (Rick Grenell) fail?
• [14:31] – Migration, refugees, and the humanitarian dimension
• [18:21] – Regional and international legal/moral objections to U.S. policy
• [19:55] – What Maria Corina Machado and the opposition need to do
• [22:43] – Is intervention a good or bad idea? Moral, strategic, historical frames
• [24:01] – How replacing key figures might tip the regime; rebuilding Venezuelan democracy
• [26:43] – Closing thoughts: Transparency, unanswered questions, and risks

Conclusion

The episode offers a deeply informed, nuanced exploration of the risks, ambiguities, and potential blowback of U.S. military action in Venezuela. Ambassador Story repeatedly underlines the unpredictability and grave challenges of rebuilding the country after intervention. Historical analogies to Iraq and Panama highlight the stakes. Ultimately, everyone agrees: the headlines may change overnight, but the hard work of restoring Venezuela will be generational.

For listeners seeking a sophisticated, real-world “wargame” of Venezuela’s future, this is essential analysis.