GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
Episode Title: Iran on the Brink with Carnegie’s Karim Sadjadpour
Date: February 28, 2026
Guests: Karim Sadjadpour (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)
Host: Ian Bremmer
Episode Overview
This episode explores the escalating tensions between the United States and Iran amid speculation of imminent U.S. military action during President Trump's second term. Ian Bremmer sits down with Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour at the Munich Security Conference to dissect the strategic calculations on all sides, the reactions of regional actors like the Gulf states and Israel, and the potential impact on the Iranian people. The discussion is placed within the larger context of the GZERO world—one defined by great power competition and a lack of clear global leadership.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
Why U.S. Strikes on Iran Are "Likely but Not Imminent"
- Current U.S. Stance:
- President Trump appears "still wants to see negotiations through," but optimism for diplomatic resolution is low.
"Not imminent because I think the President has made clear he still wants to see negotiations through. At the same time, I'm not optimistic that these negotiations are going to lead to a resolution."
— Karim Sadjadpour [03:14]
- President Trump appears "still wants to see negotiations through," but optimism for diplomatic resolution is low.
- Iran Crossing Red Lines:
- Iran’s regime has intensified actions, including “driving a giant truck through President Trump's red line” regarding treatment of protesters.
- Administration Debates:
- Discussions ongoing about types of military action—targeted “decapitation” strikes versus more limited actions.
Regional Power Reactions: Gulf States & Israel
- Gulf States' Ambivalence:
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE want Iran’s power degraded but fear direct retaliation due to proximity and exposure.
"They want to see the Iranian government degraded. At the same time, they worry about the fallout. They don't have the luxury of being thousands of miles away."
— Karim Sadjadpour [04:23] - Gulf states desire sustained U.S. presence to contain Iranian retaliation. A one-off strike is viewed as dangerous.
"They want to see the US maintain that residual presence for a while to protect against any blowback."
— Karim Sadjadpour [07:03]
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE want Iran’s power degraded but fear direct retaliation due to proximity and exposure.
- Israel’s Stance:
- Israel’s government (Netanyahu) pushes aggressively for military action, preferring regime change if possible, believing only then will threats from proxy forces, missiles, and nuclear ambitions be solved.
"The Israelis would be happy with an operation which actually attempts to bring down the regime itself..."
— Karim Sadjadpour [07:57] - Israel’s military distance from Iran makes it more hawkish than the Gulf states.
- Israel’s government (Netanyahu) pushes aggressively for military action, preferring regime change if possible, believing only then will threats from proxy forces, missiles, and nuclear ambitions be solved.
Internal Iranian Dynamics
- Waiting Game for Leadership Change:
- There is broad anticipation within the regime and society for Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death, as the political system is designed to suppress dissent.
"Almost everyone inside both the society and the regime are just waiting for Ayatollah Khamenei to die."
— Karim Sadjadpour [09:19] - No major rifts have emerged in Iran’s military or political elite due to high risks and a “system in which there’s so much spying.”
- There is broad anticipation within the regime and society for Supreme Leader Khamenei’s death, as the political system is designed to suppress dissent.
- Risks of External Action:
- Removing Khamenei via external force could martyr him and unify resistance, with unknown consequences.
"Military attack is a gamble."
— Karim Sadjadpour [10:17]
- Removing Khamenei via external force could martyr him and unify resistance, with unknown consequences.
Lessons From Recent History and Iranian Responses
- Impact of Prior U.S. Actions:
- Past escalations—U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Soleimani’s killing, and the 12 Day War—are viewed as “vindicated” by Trump, increasing likelihood of further action.
“He left the nuclear deal in 2018, he killed Qasem Soleimani in 2020, last summer, Operation Midnight Hammer, 12 Day War. So I think in his head...they’ve been vindicated. So I think he's more likely to take action, but no one can predict what comes after that.”
— Karim Sadjadpour [10:49]
- Past escalations—U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Soleimani’s killing, and the 12 Day War—are viewed as “vindicated” by Trump, increasing likelihood of further action.
- Iran’s Regional Threats:
- Iranian proxies like the Houthis and threats to oil infrastructure are escalating, but last year’s war failed to produce meaningful costs for the U.S. or Israel.
"One of the few ways in which Iran can get the world's attention is by trying to spike the price of oil."
— Karim Sadjadpour [12:10]
- Iranian proxies like the Houthis and threats to oil infrastructure are escalating, but last year’s war failed to produce meaningful costs for the U.S. or Israel.
- Iran’s “Regionalization” Warnings:
- Iran has hinted at wider regional war if attacked, but serious moves like closing the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely due to Chinese interests.
"If they try to shut the Strait of Hormuz, they're going to really alienate their chief ally, which is the government of China."
— Karim Sadjadpour [12:39] - China is a key economic partner for Iran but not an actual military ally, and Chinese and Russian interests in Iran diverge:
“China would benefit from an Iran which opens up to the world...Russia wants to see an Iran which is isolated...”
— Karim Sadjadpour [13:58]
- Iran has hinted at wider regional war if attacked, but serious moves like closing the Strait of Hormuz are unlikely due to Chinese interests.
The Human Cost & Iranian Society
-
Who Suffers Most?
- The Iranian people are expected to endure the greatest suffering—economically, socially, and through potential violence.
"It's the society which suffers most."
— Karim Sadjadpour [15:03] - Yet, Sadjadpour remains hopeful for Iran’s future as “one of the most politically mature societies in the region,” with strong underlying pro-American sentiment.
"...Arguably one of the most secular pro-American societies in the region...desperate to live in a country that fulfills Iran's enormous potential."
— Karim Sadjadpour [15:03]
- The Iranian people are expected to endure the greatest suffering—economically, socially, and through potential violence.
-
Lingering Pro-Americanism?
- Despite disappointments, Sadjadpour doubts that fundamental attitudes toward the U.S. will shift unless the regime itself changes.
"I don't think that people's attitudes about the United States change that significantly and that I think most Iranians now recognize that so long as the organizing principle of the state is death to America and death to Israel, it's never going to fulfill its great potential."
— Karim Sadjadpour [16:04]
- Despite disappointments, Sadjadpour doubts that fundamental attitudes toward the U.S. will shift unless the regime itself changes.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Iran as a regional threat:
"The Islamic Republic of Iran is in the business of destruction."
— Karim Sadjadpour [06:15] -
On the risks of regime change:
“One of Kissinger's quotes, that many of the most important decisions in government are 51–49. And really, no one can answer that question, surely...military attack is a gamble.”
— Karim Sadjadpour [10:17] -
On Israeli strategy:
"...from the Israeli vantage point so far, we've always been addressing the symptoms of Iran's malign behavior...but the underlying cause is the nature of the regime."
— Karim Sadjadpour [07:57] -
On Iranian society’s potential:
“This is one of the most politically mature societies in the region, arguably one of the most secular pro-American societies in the region..."
— Karim Sadjadpour [15:03] -
On Iranian hopes for the future:
“Reconciliation with the United States is one of the first prerequisites, I think people understand, for Iran emerging from isolation.”
— Karim Sadjadpour [16:04]
Important Timestamps
- 00:52 – Excerpt of President Trump’s pledge not to allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon
- 03:14 – Sadjadpour explains why U.S. strikes seem likely but not imminent
- 04:23 – Gulf states’ mixed feelings on potential U.S. action
- 07:03 – Gulf states' support for continued U.S. military presence
- 07:57 – Israel’s preference for regime change in Iran
- 09:19 – Internal Iranian regime dynamics and Khamenei’s role
- 10:17 – Risks and unpredictability of external intervention
- 12:10 – Iran’s threats to "regionalize" retaliation
- 13:58 – Diverging Chinese and Russian interests regarding Iran
- 15:03 – Human cost and society’s resilience
- 16:04 – On pro-Americanism among Iranians and future prospects
This episode provides a comprehensive, nuanced discussion of potential U.S.-Iran conflict scenarios, the motivations and anxieties of regional players, and the persistent hope for a more open and prosperous future for the Iranian people. Sadjadpour’s analysis is cautious but candid, making this a must-listen for anyone interested in Middle East geopolitics and U.S. foreign policy at a moment of profound uncertainty.