Podcast Summary: GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Episode: President Trump's power-first foreign policy with CFR's President
Date: February 14, 2026
Host: Ian Bremmer
Guest: Michael Froman, President of the Council on Foreign Relations

Overview

This episode delves into the dramatic transformation of U.S. foreign policy under President Trump’s second term. Whereas “America First” once implied retreat and disengagement, Trump 2.0 is marked by assertive—often unilateral—uses of American power to reshape international norms and relationships. Ian Bremmer and Michael Froman, President of the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. Trade Representative, discuss what this means for the world order, America’s allies and adversaries, and the future of global governance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The New Trump Doctrine: Power-First, Rule-Last

[00:02 - 04:12]

• Trump’s current term has broken from past policies—abandoning restraint in favor of direct, sometimes unpredictable action.
• E.g., floating ideas of “colonizing Panama and Greenland,” bombing Iran, capturing Venezuela’s leader.
• Froman: The world is “adjusting to Trump’s view of globalism—not happy, but responding.”
• Nations now expect transactional, unilateral American behavior rather than rule-based diplomacy.

2. The Weaponization of Tariffs & Erosion of International Norms

[03:14 - 08:07]

• Trump uses tariffs as a quick lever—not just for trade but for fentanyl, migration, political, and even military leverage.
• Froman: “The Trump administration has basically said they're willing to break agreements, break commitments, to use tariffs as a tool for just about everything...” [05:32]
• Other nations, outside China, largely adapt rather than retaliate, fearing U.S. economic might.
• Growing global “permission structure” for countries to act unilaterally, diminishing the force of global systems that the U.S. originally helped create.

3. The U.S. as Challenger, Not Defender, of the World System

[08:07 - 09:50]

• U.S. now seen as a “challenger,” not the defender, of world order—Froman stops short of calling it “revisionist,” but admits America disregards old rules when convenient.
• U.S. is not alone; other countries (e.g., China) are also advancing competing models.

Memorable quote:

• Froman: “We’ve gone from being the defender of the system to the challenger of the system. ... What we have said is that the old rules don’t necessarily need to apply to us in every instance.” [08:15]

4. Europe’s Predicament & Rising Fractures

[09:20 - 14:13]

• Europe is described by some, including French President Macron, as under “rupture”—with the U.S. potentially seen as adversary.
• Froman: Europeans still rely on the U.S., even as they chafe against American moves. Alignment remains due to overlapping security/market interests.
• Trump favors a “strong Europe,” but on a nation-state basis—opposed to more EU integration.
• Discussion on Europe's long-term weakness: demographics, lack of innovation compared to U.S./China.

Highlight:

• Froman: “He (Trump) wants them to be stronger on defense... not every country needs its own tank, not every country needs its own air defense system.” [12:45]

5. Comparative Innovation: U.S., China, & Europe

[14:13 - 15:31]

• U.S. and China lead in innovation, especially in sectors like biotech and semiconductors.
• Froman: “In biotech, we've seen very significant increases in innovation coming out of China... Now it’s about 30% of new patents.” [14:28]

6. Geopolitical Flashpoints—Deep Dives

Venezuela

[15:31 - 18:18]

• Trump’s dramatic arrest of Maduro—an “awesome use of force” (Froman)—but regime remains in place.
• Froman expresses skepticism about long-term benefits: “We left the regime largely in place... the same criminal regime that existed before.” [15:57]

Cuba

[19:10 - 21:31]

• Little change in decades; Froman sees potential for U.S. action inspired by the Venezuela precedent, but notes higher legitimacy/credibility challenges.
• Domestic U.S. politics (esp. Miami/Florida) would likely support assertive action.

Iran

[22:16 - 24:39]

• Talks ongoing, with U.S. military action on the table as leverage.
• Iranian regime faces existential dilemma—enrichment vs. regime credibility.
• Froman: “My best guess is there may be a limited military action—not to decapitate, but to create more leverage.” [24:08]

Russia/Ukraine

[25:07 - 29:44]

• War grinds on, U.S. shifts pressure to Ukraine as Russia seems willing to absorb costs.
• Effective European-government mechanism: use Russian frozen assets to buy U.S. military supplies.
• Froman: “Sanctions aren’t having necessarily the debilitating effect the West had hoped.” [27:36]
• Summing up the tragic logic: Pressure falls on Ukraine to capitulate, with the U.S. prioritizing quick resolution.

U.S.–China Relations & Taiwan

[29:57 - 33:46]

• Temporary stability, but both sides want to avoid escalation—especially given China’s leverage in critical minerals/pharmaceuticals.
• Tensions muted for now; major summits scheduled.
• Uncertain long-term U.S. commitment to Taiwan—Trump more transactional, less hawkish than his advisers.
• Froman: “At some point ... the US might be willing to evolve in its language about what its commitment to Taiwan is.” [33:17]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Ian Bremmer, on Trump 2.0: “This is not a president who is stepping back from the world stage. This is a president who wants to turn it to his will. And he's cast aside eight decades of global rules and norms in the process.” [00:57]
• Froman on the new international order: “We have created a permission structure ... for countries to act unilaterally, regardless of their international obligations.” [07:06]
• On Venezuela operation: “... really an awesome use of force and on the ground and creative ways... but a lot was put at risk to arrest somebody, right? We've left the regime largely in place.” [15:57]
• On China’s innovation: “If you go back five or ten years, none of the major new patents in biotech were coming out of China, and now it’s about 30%.” [14:28]
• On Russia/Ukraine: “The sanctions aren't having necessarily the debilitating effect that I think the west had hoped.” [27:36]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:02 – 04:12: Framing Trump’s second term approach
• 05:02 – 06:43: Trade policy contrast: Obama vs. Trump
• 08:07 – 09:50: Is the U.S. now a revisionist power?
• 10:57 – 13:36: Trump’s view of Europe and European defense
• 14:13 – 15:31: Global competition in innovation
• 15:57 – 18:18: Venezuela operation analysis
• 22:16 – 24:39: Iran negotiations and U.S. military posture
• 25:07 – 29:44: Russia/Ukraine—stalemate implications
• 29:57 – 33:46: U.S.–China relations and Taiwan question
• 34:07 – 35:08: Lightning round: Underappreciated countries and leaders

Lightning Round: Global Standouts

[34:07 - 35:08]

• Most underappreciated country: Singapore—“punches above their weight” in international debates.
• Leader with more potential: Japan’s new prime minister, who now holds a massive supermajority and could play a larger international role.

Tone & Language

• Conversational, sharp, and at times wry—echoing the frank, analytical and slightly skeptical tone both speakers adopt.

Summary

Trump's second term has inverted America’s role on the global stage. Far from disengaging, the U.S. acts assertively, often flouting the collaborative rules it once championed, sending shockwaves through alliances and adversaries alike. Allies adapt out of necessity, international norms are eroding, and global order is, in Froman’s words, being “challenged.” The world’s resilience is tested in Venezuela, Iran, Ukraine, and Taiwan, with costs and consequences not yet fully known. For now, everyone must adapt—because, as this episode concludes, the rules have changed, and the uncertainty is here to stay.