Podcast Summary

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer
Episode: Singapore's Global Moment, with President Tharman Shanmugaratnam
Date: January 31, 2026
Host: Ian Bremmer
Guest: Tharman Shanmugaratnam (President of Singapore)

Episode Overview

This episode delves into Singapore’s unique position at the crossroads of global power competition, focusing on how it navigates an era marked by increasing uncertainty and the decline of traditional international order. Host Ian Bremmer and President Tharman Shanmugaratnam discuss challenges arising from U.S. and China rivalry, Singapore’s approach to technological innovation (particularly in AI), and the evolving landscape of global governance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The GZERO Era and Radical Uncertainty

• Tharman describes the current global moment as an unprecedented period of uncertainty and fluidity, where the established post-Cold War order has unraveled.

• Rather than transitioning to multipolarity, the world lacks a new balance or shared sense of responsibility.

• He emphasizes the need for all countries, big or small, to construct new frameworks for rules-based cooperation, promoting "coalitions of the willing."

  "All the old verities are now past us and we don’t know where we’re heading to... There is no transition to some new world order... We are no longer in a world where a single dominant power oversaw global security, open global markets, and global public goods."
  — Tharman (02:00)

  "We’ve got to construct multiple alliances of the willing... to address these issues even if we’re not anywhere close to that old world order."
  — Tharman (03:44)

[00:50-04:23] Discussion of the open question: Is this the most uncertain global moment?

2. U.S. and China: Disruptive Powers

• Ian raises the challenge that powerful players (notably the U.S. and China) are themselves undermining the rules-based order.

• Tharman acknowledges this, but notes a new energy among the vast majority of other countries seeking to move forward with new alliances and cooperation out of necessity.

  "The vast majority of countries believe in the international rule of law, believe in open markets... and are now wanting to do more to liberalize their own markets and strike up alliances..."
  — Tharman (05:19)

• The major powers’ lack of leadership has prompted smaller and middling countries to accelerate coalition-building.

  "There's so much inertia in the system... And that’s now dissipating precisely because of the urgency of the moment."
  — Tharman (06:24)

[04:23-07:32] The effects of U.S. and China behavior and the momentum among other nations.

3. Concrete Examples of New Alliances

• EU-MERCOSUR trade deal and expanded trade agreements like the CPTPP, with ASEAN engagement, are cited as efforts to create new frameworks for economic cooperation.

• There’s an increasing urgency to develop governing frameworks in critical global domains, especially AI.

  “ASEAN’s also getting involved in discussions with CPTPP, and that’s in trade... but in other areas, too, in global health, on everything to do with the climate. And increasingly... developing some form of global governance around AI…”
  — Tharman (07:40)

[07:32-08:39] Growth of domain-specific alliances and urgency for AI governance.

4. The Security Challenge

• Ian observes that while economic rules and cooperation are evolving, security governance isn’t as adaptable due to concentration of hard power.

• Tharman stresses that U.S. and China cooperation is essential, especially on nuclear issues and AI-driven warfare.

  "It is possible for the US and China to come to some understanding where they will... collaborate in some fields, because it'll be in their common interests... Both the US and China want to rule out AI driven nuclear warfare."
  — Tharman (09:28, 10:19)

• Suggests optimism for limited but crucial collaboration, even during economic and technological rivalry.

[08:39-12:35] The challenge of achieving security cooperation amidst competition.

5. AI Governance: The Defining Challenge

• Ian: Is the core problem the speed of AI, the dominance of private companies, or the loss of U.S.-China scientific trust?

• Tharman: All of the above, and unlike Cold War arms control, AI is not wholly within state control.

• States can count warheads, but "counting algorithms" is nearly impossible.

  "It is quite different from the remarkable pacts that were arrived at during the Cold War... It's not being developed or monopolized by states, but by the private sector. It's moving very fast, much faster than states are capable of comprehending."
  — Tharman (13:38)

  "If we are realistic about how we go about this... [if we] want to control the worst, to guard against the worst that AI could bring, something can be achieved."
  — Tharman (14:23)

• Small and neutral countries like Singapore can play a crucial convening role, bringing together stakeholders from major powers and fostering collaborative regulation and standards.

  "Getting together the best minds, both the scientists, the engineers and entrepreneurs from the US and China is unfortunately no longer easy. But it's a role that small neutral countries like Singapore can play..."
  — Tharman (15:30)

[13:03-16:56] AI as a unique regulatory challenge; the need for new models of cooperation and Singapore’s convening role.

6. Singapore as a Model for Technology Adoption and Adaptation

• Singapore's rapid AI adoption (60% diffusion) means it faces challenges sooner, but past experience in rapid upskilling and adaptability is a strength.

  "Every city or economy or firm that's more exposed to AI is going to face a challenge. We will face the challenge faster... But our advantage is that we've always faced the challenge faster than other countries."
  — Tharman (17:30)

• The key, he argues, is mass investment in human capability, ensuring the workforce—especially white-collar workers—is continually upskilled.

  "If you build up people's capabilities, something works out. It works out for them and it works out for your whole economy."
  — Tharman (19:56)

• Singapore’s SkillsFuture program invests in lifelong learning, viewing technological change as a supply-side opportunity for “mass flourishing,” not as a threat.

  "We have Skills Future... to ensure we invest at periodic intervals through a person's life. And it's going to be more important than ever before."
  — Tharman (19:23)

[16:56-20:33] Singapore’s proactive approach to tech disruption; upskilling as national strategy.

7. Government and Private Sector Dynamics in Singapore

• Singapore’s economic policy is not government vs. business, but about the government creating and nurturing ecosystems where business and people thrive.

  "Our whole model... was quite different from the traditional model... It was never about government versus private enterprise. It is about creating ecosystems where private enterprise can do well for itself, but most importantly, where our people can be part of the prosperity."
  — Tharman (20:44)

[20:33-21:39] Partnership model between government and business.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the shift in world order:
  "We're not anywhere close to [multipolarity]... All we have is that we are no longer in a world where a single dominant power oversaw global security... We are no longer in that world, and we don't know what replaces it."
  — Tharman (02:00)

• On agency in global affairs:
  "Everyone is now having to sit up and realize that we have to exercise agency... Most of the largest problems in the world no longer require leadership by a single dominant power, but... enough of a solid core of countries..."
  — Tharman (06:01-07:01)

• On AI governance complexity:
  "It's much more difficult to count algorithms and the manyfold effects of algorithms [than nuclear warheads]..."
  — Tharman (14:00)

• On Singapore’s model:
  "It was never about government versus private enterprise. It is about creating ecosystems... where our people can be part of the prosperity."
  — Tharman (20:44)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:50–04:23 — Setting the context of global uncertainty and the end of the old world order
• 04:23–07:32 — How other countries are responding to U.S./China disruption; new alliances
• 07:32–08:39 — Examples: EU-MERCOSUR, ASEAN-CPTPP; need for AI governance
• 08:39–12:35 — Security concerns: can multilateralism work with consolidated hard power?
• 13:03–16:56 — Challenges and prospects for global AI governance; Singapore as a convenor
• 16:56–20:33 — Singapore’s approach to AI, upskilling, and preparing for future disruption
• 20:33–21:39 — The ecosystem model: government and private sector collaboration

Conclusion

This episode provides a sobering but constructive look at how global order is remaking itself in real time. President Tharman's insights underscore the proactive role that small, agile states like Singapore can play—both as innovators and as conveners bridging the divides of the GZERO world, especially in critical domains like AI and workforce adaptation. Above all, he stresses that the future will rely on broad coalitions and a relentless investment in human capital, not on waiting for a single global leader to re-emerge.