GZERO World with Ian Bremmer – "The biggest geopolitical risks of 2026 revealed"

Date: January 8, 2026
Host: Julia Chatterley (moderator for this episode)
Guests: Ian Bremmer (Eurasia Group, GZERO Media), Cliff Kupchin (Eurasia Group), Risa Grais-Targow (Eurasia Group Director for Latin America), Gerald Butts (Eurasia Group Vice Chair), Mitch Rahman (Eurasia Group Managing Director for Europe)

Overview

This special edition dives into Eurasia Group’s annual “Top Risks” report for 2026—a landmark 20th edition that reflects a world at a tipping point. Expect analysis of the U.S.’s new foreign policy posture, the fading confidence of global alliances, energy competition with China, the destabilizing role of AI, and granular risk assessments for Venezuela, Europe, China, and beyond. With the U.S. capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro as breaking news, the episode foregrounds America’s aggressive interventionism under President Trump and the sweeping consequence for the GZERO world order.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Venezuela Shock and the “Don Roe Doctrine”

• [00:02–07:33]

  • Venezuela’s Maduro captured: A surprise U.S. operation to bring down President Nicolás Maduro has global repercussions, particularly across Latin America and among U.S. allies.

  • The “Don Roe Doctrine” explained:

    • Under Trump, U.S. policy prioritizes absolute control over the Western Hemisphere with a heavy reliance on military—not economic—tools, extending even to places like Greenland.
    • Quote (Ian Bremmer, 03:40):
      “Trump has decided that the Don Row Doctrine is what he's doing and he's just had this wild, even if short term success with capturing… President Maduro… means that he's now going to do more of that… Also, last year, the principal tool that President Trump used… was an economic tool. It was the tariff tool… That is not what we're going to see in 2026… It’s going to be much more about the big stick, the security tool.”

  • Defining a new interventionism:

    • The U.S. now asserts “offshore coercive governance” rather than long-term nation-building.
    • Quote (Cliff Kupchin, 07:39):
      “We got to have a new model of US Interventionism… kind of offshore coercive governance… sitting offshore on an aircraft carrier and… telling Delsey, the vice president, that she better do what we say or else.”

2. Aftermath and Delsey Rodríguez's Precarious Position

• [08:58–17:15]

  • Risa Grais-Targow details Delsey Rodríguez’s installation as interim president, her alignment with the U.S., and the volatile power-sharing with regime hardliners and fragile public trust.

    • Internal fissures and uncertainty about new, free elections could drive further instability.
    • Quote (Risa Grais-Targow, 09:31):
      “Trump has announced this plan to run Venezuela… about coercing Delsey into cooperating with US Interests… And so far, it seems to be working, which isn’t surprising as Delsey has a literal gun to her head… she has a lot of potential tripwires ahead.”

  • Ian Bremmer dubs this “regime roulette,” emphasizing no well-formed U.S. plan for Venezuela beyond Maduro’s removal.

    • Quote (Ian Bremmer, 13:34):
      “It’s not regime change, it’s regime roulette. Right. They removed Maduro and then it’s okay, well, whoever they put in next, we’re just going to work with them unless they do something we don’t like and then we’re going to hit them hard with the military.”

3. Macro Outlook: A World at a Tipping Point

• [17:34–23:43]

  • The U.S. has become less reliable for allies, leveraging power more transactionally—either meting out severe consequences (“FAFO”—Fuck Around and Find Out) or retreating if adversaries can hurt U.S. interests (“TACO”—Trump Always Chickens Out).

    • Quote (Ian Bremmer, 18:02):
      “There is a spectrum of American action, and it goes from fafo to taco… you can be Canada or you can be Venezuela, but you get fafoed, right?”

  • Rise in populism is identified as a structural driver of risk both in the U.S. and Europe.

    • Quote (Cliff Kupchin, 22:36):
      “Parts of the populations of the United States and Western Europe have decided that globalist values just don’t work for them. And I think that’s what’s led to the Trump phenomenon, to the AfD phenomenon… that has led to the greatest risks we’re seeing now on the deepest level.”

4. The Overpowered Race: U.S.–China Energy Rivalry

• [24:37–27:44]

  • China is betting on “the electron”—investing heavily in advanced electrical infrastructure, while the U.S. emphasizes traditional fossil energy.

    • Quote (Gerard Butts, 24:37):
      “China is the first electrostate in the history of the world… what you’re seeing in Venezuela and through the Don Roe doctrine is the American response to that.”

  • U.S.–China competition is increasingly about control of energy systems, AI, and infrastructure.

5. U.S. Political Revolution: Top Risk for 2026

• [31:21–37:43]

  • The erosion of checks, balances, and norms in the U.S. is now considered a full-blown political revolution, with Trump and allies weaponizing the state and bypassing established constraints.

    • Quote (Ian Bremmer, 31:55):
      “They all underestimated what would happen over the course of the year… how does this reflect a political revolution? An ability and willingness to fundamentally change the political system, to weaponize the political system… the most powerful [country] is by far the most politically dysfunctional, advanced industrial economy in the world.”

  • Comparison made to prior revolutions: China’s (Deng Xiaoping), Soviet Union (Gorbachev), and now Trump’s attempted U.S. revolution.

6. European Fragility: Besieged from Without and Within

• [38:36–49:04]

  • Europe’s three major economies (Germany, France, UK) face internal political turmoil, populist surges, and external pressure from Russia and the U.S.

    • Quote (Mitch Rahman, 38:36):
      “Where are the Europeans? They’re totally exhausted… being besieged both from without… and also from within, given the massive populist challenge… the far right is in the ascendancy in Germany and France and indeed the UK.”

  • Support for Ukraine persists, but is threatened by American disengagement and transactional demands (like defense tariffs), and internal populist pressures.

  • The Russia-Ukraine war risks dangerous escalation as NATO allies expand asymmetrical responses amid declining U.S. support.

7. China’s Deflation Trap

• [49:42–51:24]
  • Persistent deflation and economic woes in China are increasing social unrest and exporting deindustrialization globally.
    • Quote (Cliff Kupchin, 49:42):
      “It’s overcompetition… declining wages, increased debt load… The youth are really getting whacked. The first sort of global import is one of the two largest economies in the world is under increasing stress…”

8. AI, Water, Climate, and More — The Remaining Risks

• [51:24–57:09]

  • Water scarcity (#10 on the list) is a slow-burning but severe risk, driving unrest and state conflict.

    • Quote (Gerard Butts, 51:52):
      “Almost 2 billion people can’t have reliable access to daily water… If you don’t have it, you don’t have an economy because you don’t have people around to conduct one.”

  • AI “Eating Its Users”:

    • AI’s unchecked advance is transforming society faster than regulators can keep up. The pressure to monetize may cause companies to “program people” rather than the other way around.
    • Quote (Ian Bremmer, 53:20):
      “The most extraordinary transformation of revolutionary technology in our lifetimes is happening in an environment of basically no governance… They are experimenting real time on society. We would never do this with a vaccine… yet we’re doing it with large language models and chatbots on societies and on our kids.”

  • Tariffs as a 'red herring':

    • Trump is constrained in enacting broad tariffs for now, focusing instead on military and security levers.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Bremmer on the Don Roe Doctrine
  “It’s not regime change, it’s regime roulette.” – Ian Bremmer, [13:34]

• Kupchin on a new US interventionism
  “Offshore coercive governance… not nation building. That’s kind of extractive coercion.” – Cliff Kupchin, [07:39]

• Bremmer on America’s shift from stabilizer to risk generator
  “The United States has gone from being the world’s most important shock absorber of political risk to its most significant generator of political risk.” – Gerald Butts, [30:29]

• Rahman on Europe’s exhaustion
  “The Europeans… are totally exhausted, frankly. They’re fatigued, they’re weak, they’re vulnerable.” – Mitch Rahman, [38:36]

• Bremmer on U.S. dysfunction
  “By far the most politically dysfunctional, advanced industrial economy in the world.” – Ian Bremmer, [37:12]

• Final thought
  “You can’t break what’s already broken. And that’s what we’re seeing.” – Julia Chatterley, [61:07]

Key Segment Timestamps

• [00:02] – Introduction, podcast framing, risks overview
• [03:40] – The “Don Roe Doctrine” defined and its implications
• [07:39] – Kupchin on the new face of U.S. interventionism
• [09:31] – Risa Grais-Targow’s analysis: Venezuela post-Maduro
• [13:34] – Bremmer on “regime roulette”
• [18:02] – Macro analysis: the global tipping point
• [22:36] – Kupchin on populism’s role in structural risk increase
• [24:37] – Butts: U.S.-China energy competition and the “electrostate”
• [31:55] – Bremmer on U.S. political norms/breaking and revolution
• [38:36] – Rahman: Europe’s mindset and vulnerabilities
• [49:42] – Kupchin: China’s deflation trap
• [51:52] – Butts: Water scarcity and global risk
• [53:20] – Bremmer: AI’s unchecked societal impact
• [57:59] – Why tariffs are a red herring in 2026's risk landscape

Global Opportunities (Closing Section)

• AI’s positive potential
  • Promise in healthcare, medicine, and education
• India highlighted
  • Fastest-growing major economy (7% growth), more openness, reforms
• Big picture optimism
  • Long-term trends: fewer childhood deaths, decarbonizing energy, scientific progress
• Critical reset needed for the U.S.
  • Real change may only come from crisis; the “opportunities receive” once the broken system is rebuilt.
  • Quote (Ian Bremmer, 60:05):
    “You have to get through this to get to a new system. And let’s hope that these opportunities receive.”

Summary Table: Top Risks of 2026 (discussed)

| Risk | Main Point | Timestamp | |------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | US Political Revolution| Erosion of norms, rise in unilateral executive power | 31:21–37:43 | | US–China Competition | Clash over energy systems, AI, and global infrastructure | 24:37–27:44 | | Don Roe Doctrine | Aggressive U.S. assertion in the Western Hemisphere | 03:40–15:36 | | Russia/Ukraine/Europe | European fragility, risks of escalation and populism | 38:36–49:04 | | China’s Deflation Trap | Prolonged economic malaise with global spillovers | 49:42–51:24 | | AI Risks | Turbocharged development without regulation, societal experimentation | 53:20–57:09 | | Water Scarcity | Underappreciated but critical driver of instability | 51:24–53:00 | | Climate | Diminished public/policy focus, ongoing physical risks | Throughout | | Opportunities | India’s growth, AI’s upside, slowly improving global human welfare | 59:04–61:07 |

For the full Top Risks report, visit GZERO Media’s website.
This episode is a must-listen for those seeking a brutally honest map of today’s unstable and transitional world order.