GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Episode Summary: "The Politics of Polarization in America, with Steven Law"

Date: October 18, 2025
Guest: Steven Law (former Chief of Staff to Mitch McConnell, Republican strategist, super PAC leader)

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Ian Bremmer sits down with Steven Law to analyze the increasingly polarized state of American politics ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. They discuss the current positions and challenges facing both major parties in the wake of Republicans’ national consolidation under Donald Trump and Democrats’ ongoing struggle to redefine themselves after their 2024 presidential defeat. The conversation broadly examines party dynamics, voter sentiment, major wedge issues, and the risks that extreme political rhetoric poses to American governance.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current State of the Parties

• Republican Party:

  • Steven Law describes the GOP as the “party of Donald Trump,” with its direction and messaging almost entirely shaped by Trump's persona and priorities.

    “It’s pretty clear where the party is. And it’s the party of Donald Trump. He has an incredible grip … over its voting base, over donors… everything that he’s doing, I think, defines the party pretty substantially.” (Steven Law, 01:58)

  • Donald Trump’s leadership style and ability to command party loyalty is emphasized, with little room for dissent.

• Democratic Party:

  • Described as entering “a period of massive redefinition” after their 2024 defeat, with internal debates reminiscent of the GOP’s post-2012 “PTSD” after Mitt Romney’s loss.
  • Law notes “roiling conflict” over the party’s future vision, driven by tensions between centrist pragmatism and an energized activist, union-backed left wing.

    “There’s a little bit of PTSD involved because Republicans went through the same thing after Mitt Romney failed to defeat Barack Obama in 2012…” (Steven Law, 01:58)

  • Democrats are said to be focused on not being Trump, rather than developing a clearly defined policy agenda.

2. Midterm Elections and Lessons from the Past

• 2026 Midterms as ‘Report Card’: The upcoming elections will be a critical test both for Trump’s administration and the Democrats’ ability to present an alternative.
• Law recalls Republicans’ overconfidence in 2022, expecting a referendum on Biden, but being undermined by their own divisive primaries and Trump’s early re-entry into the spotlight.

  “Republicans thought [2022] was going to be all about [Biden]... But what ended up happening was that Republicans became mired in bad primaries that produced even worse candidates…” (Steven Law, 04:36)

• Warns Democrats could fall prey to similar traps if they put forward far-left candidates or lack a concise message.

3. Democratic Energy, Candidates, and the ‘Leftward Pull’

• Noting the grassroots excitement around progressive figures such as Mamdani and Bernie Sanders, Law questions if their national relevance will reach past blue-state strongholds.

  “Obviously, everybody in the Republican Party is very focused on Mamdani. I don’t know ... The question is whether he’s still newsworthy [outside NY].” (Steven Law, 06:22)

• Trump’s megaphone and his ability to spotlight opposition figures is cited as a significant factor in narrative shaping:

  “President Trump can own the megaphone like no other… If he wants to make Mamdani the focus of attention, Mamdani will be…” (Steven Law, 07:47)

4. What Should Democrats Run On?

• Law identifies healthcare and the economy as perennial winning issues—but warns that elections largely hinge on kitchen-table economics: inflation, jobs, living costs.

  “Most elections turn on how people view the economy… that's one that... either they're gonna be able to take advantage of because it seems like the economy's slowing down… or as the White House is saying, you just wait, it's gonna be great…” (Steven Law, 08:44)

• Corruption is seen as a less effective message, as voters generally “price in” a certain degree of it.

  “A lot of voters price in a certain amount of corruption… Most voters assume if you’re up in Washington, you must be up to some no good.” (Steven Law, 10:42)

5. Media Environment & Public Perceptions

• Law underscores the role of a fragmented, cynical media ecosystem in driving polarization—with both sides quick to delegitimize the other regardless of actual policy or evidence.

  “People look at Washington and they look at politics with just derision and what they see is a completely dysfunctional, broken system.” (Steven Law, 12:41)

• Trump’s decisive action (regardless of substance) is described as appealing to voters tired of Washington gridlock.

  “Here’s a guy who’s constantly doing things… may not like the points… but he’s a guy who’s getting stuff done. And that is something that I think people have longed to see.” (Steven Law, 12:41)

6. Republican Policy—Substance & Strategy

• Trump-era GOP focus: Tariffs, economic populism, America-first trade, anti-war positioning, border security, and immigration.
  • There’s bipartisan hesitation to undo tariffs, both for revenue and political reasons.

    “It’s a source of revenue and it’s a talking point for how you’re protecting American jobs.” (Steven Law, 17:07)

  • Law notes the Republican economic program now actively borrows from traditional Democratic themes—raising questions about “who owns” working-class and protectionist rhetoric.
  • Impact of border security and immigration moves is discussed, though Law notes uncertainty about how far-reaching and electorally effective more draconian deportations will be.

    “Securing the border ... is undeniably immensely popular even among Democrats... But then the next step ... is to find people who are simply here illegally ... that's going to be uglier, that's going to be messier.” (Steven Law, 18:39)

7. Polarization & Rhetoric—The ‘Enemy Within’

• Both parties’ bases increasingly see the other side as existential threats—a dynamic Law and Bremmer agree is corrosive and dangerous.

• Law expresses concern over overly broad demonization:

  “[Trump] doesn’t speak like a politician… But obviously this is an area where you really have to speak with great care. … you can’t simply, with a broad brush, say every judge who issues a negative ruling, every Democrat who opposes what we want to do is somehow an enemy. And I don’t think the president believes that. I really don’t. But again, you have to be very careful…” (Steven Law, 21:05)

• The episode highlights extreme rhetoric from both fringes, citing the Virginia attorney general’s race and the societal hunger for leaders who will lower the temperature.

  “At some point between now and next year there's going to be a dividend that the voters will pay to a public leader who stands up and says, we just need to turn the temperature down here.” (Steven Law, 25:06)

• Law and Bremmer agree most Americans do not truly see the other party as traitors or extremists:

  “I can’t think of many people in those groups who consider the opposition to be fascist or traitors. But I do think that’s the way the leaders are framing it.” (Ian Bremmer, 26:51)

8. Party Loyalty, Dissent, and Internal Debate

• Discussion of the challenge for Republican leaders—having policy disagreements or expressing discomfort with Trump’s words/approach is mostly managed internally, not in public.

  “Republicans and others who wish the success of this administration do find avenues to express concerns about particular policy issues and they just do it inside the tent. … with this president, that’s an especially preferred approach than doing it publicly.” (Steven Law, 23:43)

• Law emphasizes this is not unique to Republicans, noting similar behavior among Democrats during Obama and Biden’s presidencies.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the role of polarization:

  "Both bases want to fight. They want to fight. They are mistrustful of the other side... that's the energy underneath it all."
  —Steven Law, 26:03

• On leadership and responsibility:

  “At some point ... there’s going to be a dividend that the voters will pay to a public leader who stands up and says, we just need to turn the temperature down...”
  —Steven Law, 25:06

• On what drives elections:

  “Most elections turn on how people view the economy and how that's going...”
  —Steven Law, 08:44

• On Trump’s grip on the GOP:

  “He has an incredible grip over the party, influence over its voting base, influence over donors.”
  —Steven Law, 01:58

Key Timestamps

• 01:36: Introduction of Steven Law and state of both parties
• 04:36: Lessons from the 2022 midterms
• 07:47: Trump’s megaphone and shaping the narrative
• 08:44: What issues Democrats should focus on
• 10:42: Discussion about corruption as a political issue
• 12:41: Dysfunction in Washington and why Trump’s “action” appeals
• 15:41: Substance of GOP economic policy post-Trump
• 18:39: Immigration, crime, and political risk
• 20:14: Polarization—“enemy within” rhetoric
• 23:43: Party discipline and the scope for dissent
• 25:06: Need for leaders to “turn the temperature down”

Tone & Final Thoughts

The conversation is candid, pragmatic, and avoids partisanship even while speaking plainly about each party’s weaknesses and base instincts. Law is particularly forthright (and occasionally self-deprecating) about past Republican missteps and expresses hope that America will eventually reward leaders who pursue unity rather than division—though neither he nor Bremmer is optimistic about an imminent change.

For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode provides a nuanced, insider’s perspective on the pivotal factors shaping America’s contentious political climate as the country heads toward another consequential election.