GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Episode Summary: "The State of the World in 2025"

Release Date: October 31, 2025
Host: Ian Bremmer

Overview

Ian Bremmer delivers his annual "State of the World" address, fresh from Tokyo, outlining the tectonic shifts in global power and the new realities of a "GZERO world"—a geopolitical landscape where the United States has intentionally abdicated its postwar leadership role, and no nation is willing or able to fill the void. He explores the roots of American withdrawal, the consequences for global institutions and alliances, and the repercussions for both domestic and international politics, including the deepening unpredictability and unreliability of the U.S. on the world stage.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The End of American Global Leadership

• U.S. Withdrawal by Choice

  • The U.S. is not receding in influence out of weakness, but "because it wants to." There is no historical precedent for the most powerful nation stepping away by choice from the system it built.
  • Quote:

    “The United States, still, today the world’s most powerful nation, has chosen to walk away from the international system that the United States built and led for three quarters of a century. Not because it’s weak, not because it has to, because it wants to. There is no historic precedent for this. It's never happened before.”
    — Ian Bremmer, [03:10]

• Alliances and Institutions Suffer

  • Allies such as Japan and Europe have become increasingly dependent, lagged in defense spending, innovation, and productivity, just as Americans want their government to “do less, not more” for others.
  • Quote:

    "The European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, and, yes, Japan are lagging in productivity...they've underspent on their own defense...producing fewer genuine technological breakthroughs, and this makes their security and their prosperity more dependent on the United States precisely at the moment than Americans want their government to do. Less, not more."
    — Ian Bremmer, [06:08]

• Rise of U.S. Unreliability

  • Allies now see the U.S. as both "unpredictable and unreliable," reversing longstanding expectations of American behavior.
  • Examples include abrupt reversals on major agreements: Iran nuclear deal, Paris Climate Accord, Trans-Pacific Partnership, WHO, UNESCO.
  • Quote:

    "Governments sign trade deals, and Washington unilaterally changes the terms. The U.S. suspends intelligence sharing, cuts foreign aid, intervenes...even threatens the territorial integrity of allies like Canada and Denmark...At the global level, the United States has backed away from countless institutional commitments."
    — Ian Bremmer, [07:34]

2. The U.S.-China Dynamic

• From Confrontation to Pragmatic Bargaining

  • Despite "lurching from mini crisis to mini crisis," the U.S. and China are moving toward pragmatic stability—China leveraging dominance in key supply chains (minerals/rare earths) to deter U.S. escalation.
  • Recent easing of export controls on semiconductor chips in exchange for Chinese concessions signals a new pragmatic (if still contentious) era.
  • Quote:

    “Beijing has forced Trump to climb down from threats of a full trade war by using its own dominance...They’ve also used a healthy dose of Chinese strategic patience.”
    — Ian Bremmer, [13:08]

• A New Bargaining Model

  • Xi's willingness to engage Trump without a deal in hand marks a shift in China's approach.
  • Both leaders want a deal, though the process will be rocky.

3. America’s Weaponization of Economic Power

• Expansion of Tariffs and Economic Leverage

  • Trump’s administration imposed tariffs on over 90 countries (highest since 1930s) citing "national security"—from steel and semiconductors to bathroom vanities.
  • He used an obscure "economic emergency" law to bypass Congress—an unprecedented power grab.

• Direct Political Interference Abroad

  • U.S. tariffs and economic carrots (e.g., Argentina bailout, Brazil tariffs) are being openly used to sway internal politics of other democracies—a break from past norms.
  • Quote:

    “President Trump is using tariffs and other tools of economic leverage to directly interfere in the domestic politics of friendly democracies.”
    — Ian Bremmer, [18:44]

• De-globalization as Policy

  • The U.S. is actively de-globalizing its economy and, by extension, the world system.

4. The U.S. Political Revolution

• Rise of Executive Power

  • Trump’s second term is marked by the consolidation of executive power: purging the bureaucracy, replacing career officials with loyalists, using legal and regulatory tools against political adversaries.

• Retribution as Governance

  • Political retribution and "revenge" against perceived enemies, from Democrats to media to civil servants, underpins policy moves.
  • Quote:

    "In short, President Trump is replacing rule of law with rule of the jungle, where the powerful, the strong, do what they will and the weak suffer what they must."
    — Ian Bremmer, [25:40]

• Transforming Institutions & Checks on Power

  • Congress and the judiciary are increasingly sidelined or pressured. Media ownership and social platforms fall more under pro-Trump control.
  • The military, states, and some technocratic city governments retain some autonomy.

• Erosion of Structural Advantages

  • America’s post-war strengths (infrastructure, demographics, tolerance for inequality and debt) are now eroding.
  • AI is a game changer—U.S. is still a global leader, but these changes threaten future competitiveness.

5. What Should Allies and Other Countries Do?

• Defense, then Hedge

  • Allies should avoid direct confrontations with Trump, make swift concessions where necessary, and focus internally on economic dynamism and technological investment.
  • Seek multilateral deals, invest in regulatory reform, and deepen regional partnerships.
  • Models for hedging include Draghi’s EU competitiveness reforms and Canada’s economic strategy.

• China Steps Up (Where It Can)

  • Beijing doubles down on support for international institutions, calculating a larger say as U.S. influence wanes.

• No One Is Filling the Vacuum

  • "We’re now living in a post-American order and no one is willing or able to fill the vacuum. China has its own problems and is not prepared to bite off more than it can chew. Very cautious."
    — Ian Bremmer, [40:35]

6. The GZERO World and the New Instability

• More Conflict, More Chaos

  • The absence of a reliable global leader means more transactional geopolitics, more volatility, and longer-lasting damage from crises.

• A Call for New Leadership, Empathy, and Community

  • Bremmer closes by urging a bottoms-up renewal: more empathy, local leadership, and investment in truth-based communities—not waiting for political or corporate leadership.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |-----------|---------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:10 | Ian Bremmer | "The United States...has chosen to walk away from the international system...Not because it's weak...there is no historic precedent for this." | | 06:08 | Ian Bremmer | "...their security and their prosperity more dependent on the United States precisely at the moment than Americans want their government to do. Less, not more." | | 07:34 | Ian Bremmer | "Governments sign trade deals, and Washington unilaterally changes the terms..." | | 13:08 | Ian Bremmer | "Beijing has forced Trump to climb down from threats of a full trade war by using its own dominance..." | | 18:44 | Ian Bremmer | "President Trump is using tariffs and other tools of economic leverage to directly interfere in the domestic politics of friendly democracies." | | 25:40 | Ian Bremmer | "In short, President Trump is replacing rule of law with rule of the jungle, where the powerful, the strong, do what they will and the weak suffer what they must." | | 40:35 | Ian Bremmer | "We’re now living in a post-American order and no one is willing or able to fill the vacuum." | | 41:04 | Ian Bremmer | "...the old rules don’t apply anymore and the new rules haven’t been written yet. The next few years are going to be painful...history isn’t deterministic...We need a lot more empathy, more leadership. We need more cooperation and trust—not just from world leaders...I’m actually talking about us, the people in this room." |

Memorable Moments

• The Churchill Reference ([06:23]):

  "Winston Churchill once said, you can count on the Americans to always do the right thing after they have exhausted all other available options...But today, most leaders...see the United States as both unpredictable and unreliable."

• Biting Sarcasm on Tariffs ([18:00]):

  “Because nothing says national security vulnerability like an insufficiently domestic supply of bathroom cabinetry.”

• On U.S. Political Revolution ([25:40]):

  • Comparing U.S. internal turmoil to the great revolutions of 20th-century Russia and China—implying the gravity of change.

• Protest and Social Upheaval ([22:44]):

  • Noting “7 million Americans” in nationwide “no king” protests, the largest dissent since Vietnam.

Important Timestamps

• [00:02] – Introduction and statement of episode purpose
• [03:10] – Main address: the U.S. willfully stepping back from global leadership
• [06:08] – Critique of weak allies and their growing dependence
• [07:34] – Specifics on U.S. unreliability and reversals on international deals
• [13:08] – Analysis of U.S.–China trade and strategic brinkmanship
• [18:44] – The use of tariffs and economic tools for political goals
• [21:55] – The political revolution and executive power in the U.S.
• [25:40] – The replacement of rule of law with “rule of the jungle”
• [33:00] – Strategic advice for America’s allies (defense/hedging)
• [40:35] – Final prognosis: more conflict, impunity, and the search for new leadership

Conclusion

Ian Bremmer paints a sobering picture of a world reeling from America’s conscious retreat from global leadership; an international system rendered more volatile by U.S. unreliability and transactional politics; a domestic political landscape increasingly unmoored from democratic norms. Allies must adapt to a world where the U.S. is not the dependable anchor it once was, doubling down on domestic competitiveness and against relying on any single power. While the future is unstable, Bremmer maintains that history is not predetermined—and that a new, better political order can emerge if global citizens, rather than just leaders, take responsibility for shaping their communities and values.