GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Episode Summary: "Trump hits oil states"

Date: November 2, 2025
Host: Ian Bremmer (GZERO Media)
Guests/Contributors: Riley & Zach

Overview

In this episode, the hosts dissect the latest US sanctions targeting Russia's top oil firms under the Trump administration and examine the ripple effects on global politics and energy markets. The discussion also covers escalating tensions between the US and Venezuela, recent political shifts in Argentina, local US political quirks, and even New York City's rat czar saga. Throughout, Riley and Zach blend sharp political analysis with well-timed humor.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. New US Oil Sanctions on Russia

[00:13 — 06:23]

• Shift in US Policy:
  • The Trump administration sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.
    • Quote: “These are the two largest Russian oil firms… the Biden administration wasn’t even willing to go this far.” — Zach [00:45]
• Reason for Biden’s Previous Caution:
  • Fears sanctions on major oil firms would spike global oil prices and worsen inflation.
    • Quote: “They were very concerned that by putting these sanctions on it would increase the price of oil significantly and that would increase inflation…” — Zach [01:10]
  • Current markets are less volatile, perhaps due to higher Gulf production and generally lower prices.
• Impact on Russia, China, and India:
  • Russia’s budget is heavily reliant on oil/gas (30–50% of government revenue).
  • China and India are the two largest buyers of Russian oil; if they comply with sanctions, Russia could lose critical revenue.
  • Risk for refiners: “If you’re an Indian oil refiner… it’s possible, if the US enforces it, that you’ll lose access to international payment systems. And that could be really, really bad for business.” — Zach [03:04]
• Potential Changes in Russian War Policy:
  • Russia unlikely to change its Ukraine posture in the short term, but protracted revenue loss could force changes.
    • Quote: “Putin has a very high threshold for pain…but can’t finance a war effort if your economy is crashing.” — Riley [06:16]
  • If China and India withdraw as buyers, “the ramifications are huge.” — Zach [04:49]

2. US Military Pressure on Venezuela

[06:23 — 11:43]

• Escalating Actions:
  • US military strikes against alleged drug smuggling ships; significant naval presence near Venezuela.
    • Quote: “One of the US’s largest warships is off the coast of Venezuela…the presence of the US military is encroaching sharply upon Venezuela and the leader, Nicolas Maduro, was getting very nervous.” — Riley [07:20]
  • Trump administration claims the actions target drug smuggling, but scale suggests possible moves to oust Maduro.
  • Trump confirmed a “covert CIA mission” in Venezuela, though “not very covert.” — Riley [08:15]
• Possible Outcomes and Risks:
  • Two scenarios:
    1. Actual covert operation ousts Maduro.
    2. Military pressure fractures Maduro’s military support.
  • Even if Maduro falls, the power vacuum could be filled by another military figure, not necessarily leading to democracy.
    • Quote: “If the US isn’t prepared to actually usher in democracy…they could be breaking a political system and not being willing to buy the consequences, which could be catastrophic.” — Riley [09:56]
• Opposition Leader Machado’s Role:
  • Maria Karina Machado (Nobel Peace Prize winner), now allied with the Trump administration, is in hiding.
  • Advocates that ousting Maduro could allow 8 million exiles to return, an aim in line with Trump’s anti-immigration stance.
    • “She’s good at finding common ground with Trump…as of what I’ve seen, there isn’t a plan in place to fully oust the military dictatorship…” — Riley [11:13]

3. Political Change in Argentina

[13:11 — 16:28]

• Turnaround for President Milei:
  • Javier Milei’s party had significant wins, even in the opposition’s stronghold (Buenos Aires province).
    • Quote: “He swept. He basically swept…” — Zach [13:57]
  • Despite previous doubts about his radical libertarian economics, voters rewarded him for slashing Argentina’s rampant inflation.
    • “They clearly gave him a lot of credit for significantly lowering the inflation rate in Argentina, which was a massive issue.” — Zach [15:43]
  • Voter turnout dropped to 68%, low for a country with compulsory voting—possibly indicating apathy or protest.
• Congressional Power Shift:
  • Milei’s bloc now controls over a third of the Chamber of Deputies, making it harder for the opposition to override presidential vetoes.
  • Prospects for further consolidation of power in the next election.

4. Local US Politics and Quirky Moments

[16:28 — 21:25]

• New York Election Vibes:
  • Deep divisions noted even in Democratic strongholds; raucous rally moments including “Tax the Rich” chants at Governor Kathy Hochul.
• Colorful Candidates:
  • Curtis Sliwa of the Guardian Angels invoked for his “true New Yorker” personality.
    • Quote: “When he said that all parades should be legal, I’ve never felt more represented by a candidate.” — Riley [17:16]
  • Humorous speculation about write-in candidates and the “Pro Parade Party” (PPP).
• Eric Adams and the Rat Czar:
  • Discussion on the legacy of NYC’s “rat czar,” who recently stepped down.
  • The outgoing rat czar was highly paid and uniquely knowledgeable, creating both admiration and citywide curiosity about her successor.
    • “She knew everything about rats and she also had such a reverence for the rats... she really understood her enemy...” — Riley [20:46]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “Putin has a very high threshold for pain, but can’t finance a war effort if your economy is crashing.” — Riley [06:16]
• “If you’re an Indian oil refiner… you’ll lose access to international payment systems. And that could be really, really bad for business.” — Zach [03:04]
• On covert ops: “Yes, which makes it kind of not very covert. But that is a, quote, covert CIA mission is currently going on in Venezuela. But you didn’t hear it from me.” — Riley [08:15]
• On the Nobel Peace Prize:
  • “I am also a Nobel Peace Prize winner.” — Zach [12:06]
  • “You don’t want our euro. You don’t get our peace prizes.” — Riley [12:42]
• Curtis Sliwa: “When he said that all parades should be legal, I’ve never felt more represented by a candidate.” — Riley [17:16]
• On NYC’s rats: “She knew everything about rats and she also had such a reverence for the rats that like you like she really understood her enemy...” — Riley [20:46]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:13 — 06:23: US sanctions on Russian oil & their implications
• 06:23 — 11:43: US military pressure on Venezuela & covert operations
• 13:11 — 16:28: Argentina’s political and economic landscape under Milei
• 16:28 — 21:25: New York City politics, colorful candidates, and the rat czar

Tone and Style

The episode blends rigorous geopolitical analysis with tongue-in-cheek asides, irreverent humor, and rapport between the hosts. While the headlines are serious—confronting the global fallout of US actions—the delivery remains conversational and accessible.

Conclusion

This wide-ranging episode offers insight into the shifting global order through the lens of US policy—whether it’s clamping down on Russian and Venezuelan oil, backing regime change, or navigating democratic discontent abroad and at home. The interplay between hard politics and cultural quirks makes for an informative and highly engaging listen, giving context to headlines and bringing lesser-noted stories, like New York’s war on rats, into the fold.