GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Episode: "Trump's second term—a year in, with Stephen Walt"

Date: January 17, 2026
Guest: Stephen Walt, Professor of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

Episode Overview

Ian Bremmer is joined by international relations scholar Stephen Walt to examine the dramatic changes during the first year of Donald Trump’s second term as President of the United States. The core discussion revolves around the swift expansion of presidential power, shifts in U.S. foreign policy—especially the "predatory" dynamics of U.S. behavior toward allies and adversaries—and what these changes mean for the global order. The conversation explores both the speed and implications of the Trump administration's strategies, how the world is responding, and which policies will have lasting effects beyond Trump’s presidency.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Scale and Speed of Change Under Trump’s Second Term

• Trump’s approach is notably less constrained, more confident, and more explicit compared to his first term.
  • “He returned with fewer constraints, more confidence, and a much more explicit view of how government and the world should work.” (00:17, Ian Bremmer)
• Expansion of executive power: Independent agencies under executive control, ethics watchdogs and inspectors general fired, political use of the Justice Department and FBI, sweeping tariffs, and a sharp retreat from multilateralism.

2. Foreign Policy Realignment and Use of Force

• Stephen Walt highlights not the direction, but the speed and scope of policy changes as most surprising.
  • “I think I’m surprised not by the direction things have gone, but by the sort of speed and scope by which things have changed.” (02:22, Stephen Walt)
• Predictable: Tough on tariffs, harsh on Europe, soft on Russia.
• Unexpected: Moves on Greenland, direct intervention in Venezuela.
• Shift in military posture:
  • More frequent, short and sharp military actions, primarily air power, targeting weaker states.
  • "He likes these short, sharp, discreet uses of force, primarily air power." (03:17, Stephen Walt)
• Reluctance to put American troops in harm’s way persists; avoids protracted wars.
  • "He doesn’t like forever wars. I don’t think that’s been disproven…He likes to pick on weak countries that really have no prospect of retaliating against the United States.” (03:39, 03:51, Walt).

3. Predatory Hegemony—New U.S. Approach to Allies and Adversaries

• Allies are now treated with the same predatory logic as adversaries.
  • "I've been taking to calling it predatory hegemony...What Trump has done is he's applying that to our allies as well." (06:05, Walt)
• In all bilateral interactions, Trump seeks maximum advantage—even at allies’ expense.
  • “His view is what’s mine is mine, what’s yours is negotiable.” (06:24, Walt)
• "He’s engaged in acts of predation against everyone. And of course, he’s got more leverage when he’s dealing with American allies…" (06:44, Walt)
• In the long term, allies are adapting by seeking new partners, diversifying, and reducing U.S. reliance.
  • “Because other countries will start to adjust, they’ll start to adapt.” (07:28, Walt)
  • Example: Canada and Europe (Mercosur trade deal).

4. Limits and Backlash to Predation

• Short-term gains risk long-term losses.
  • “Over time, I think that we’re pushing them to have no choice but to do that [push back].” (08:24, Walt)
• Allies may eventually respond collectively, especially as they realize U.S. demands keep escalating.

5. Security vs. Economic Leverage

• Economic interdependence provides allies more leverage to push back than the security realm.
  • "The countries that have pushed back, like Brazil, have tended to do better. China being the most obvious case...the Trump administration basically caved." (08:24, Walt)
• Security arrangements, such as U.S. bases in Europe, are still a powerful American card, but overreach could push even staunch allies to recalibrate.
  • "If the Europeans are sufficiently alarmed by the United States, they simply say the United States has to leave Europe..." (10:46, Walt)
• Trump’s insistence on controlling Greenland cited as a symbolic overreach that could alarm NATO allies.

6. Hybrid Warfare and Potential For U.S. Overreach

• The U.S. could use "asymmetric" tools (cyber, drones, economic coercion) to pressure allies short of traditional military force, but not without cost to the U.S. itself.
  • "...these are not without cost to the United States...It’s not like the United States has complete impunity to impose various forms of soft punishments..." (12:01, Walt)

7. Venezuela—A Case Study in Assertive Intervention

• The kidnapping and rendition of Maduro and his wife considered an unprecedented use of hard power.
  • "That was a very explicit use of hard power that would not have been considered by a previous administration, certainly not under Biden, really not under Trump the first time either." (13:35, Bremmer)
• Motives seen as primarily asserting U.S. primacy in the Western Hemisphere and limiting Chinese influence, not oil or democracy promotion.
  • “What it’s really about is trying to put all of Latin America on notice that this is our hemisphere and we’re going to run it...” (15:18, Walt)
• Warning: Trying to control Latin American economic/political decisions is a "long-term loser" for the U.S.
  • “Those consumers are not going to be very happy and those governments aren’t going to be very happy as well. So, again, I think if the idea here is trying to exert almost total control...this is a long-term loser.” (16:41, Walt)

8. Prospects for Collective Action & U.S. Policy Limits

• Real challenge for countries—especially Europe—is organizing collective resistance to U.S. leverage.
  • “It’s hard to organize a lot of collective opposition…getting their act together, to work together to put limits on what the United States can do has proven to be difficult.” (17:58, Walt)
• European "wishful thinking" that flattery would buy benevolence has failed—may shift to more assertive resistance.
  • “They thought if they could play nice with Trump…they could get benevolent treatment. Of course, if that doesn’t work… now we’re going to have to play hardball.” (18:40, Walt)

9. Domestic Factors: U.S. Economy and Politics

• Outcomes of midterm elections could constrain Trump’s freedom; economic downturn could provoke further foreign activism.
  • “If the American economy starts to show real signs of strain...That may, of course, encourage greater Trumpian activism on the global stage as a distraction from things at home…” (19:25, Walt)

10. Legacy Policies Likely to Outlast Trump

• The most profound, enduring damage: erosion of U.S. research & development, and the assault on universities.
  • “The Trump administration has been significantly undermining America’s ability to stay at the cutting edge...Subsequent presidents are going to look back on this and think it was absolutely insane.” (21:02, 21:47, Walt)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s approach:

  • “What’s mine is mine, what’s yours is negotiable.” (06:24, Walt)

• On long-term consequences:

  • “The damage there won’t be felt for another five or 10 years, but it’s the kind of thing that you don’t recover from in a year or two.” (21:47, Walt)

• On the nature of the Trump news cycle:

  • “If you keep the news cycle constantly buzzing with the latest thing you’ve done, even if it’s just something as trivial as putting your name on the Kennedy Center…that takes over the news cycle for 48 hours and people forget about whatever it is you were doing last week.” (20:08, Walt)

Important Timestamps

• 00:17–Addressing Trump’s new approach to governance and foreign policy
• 02:22–Walt discusses the speed and surprise of recent changes
• 06:05–Introduction of the term ‘predatory hegemony’
• 08:24–Limits and risks of the U.S. predatory approach
• 10:46–Greenland as a symbolic flashpoint with allies
• 12:01–Costs and limits of asymmetric/hybrid warfare
• 13:35–Discussion of the Venezuela intervention
• 15:18–Broader motives behind the Venezuela operation
• 17:58–Limits of collective opposition to the U.S.
• 19:25–How the U.S. economy may affect foreign policy
• 21:02–Lasting impact of undermining U.S. research and development
• 21:47–Irreparable damage to universities and R&D

Conclusion

Stephen Walt’s diagnosis of Trump’s second-term foreign policy is that while none of the trends are shocking on their own, their rapid acceleration and disregard for traditional alliances and institutions is upending the global order. The administration’s “predatory” stance—even toward historic allies—may yield short-term gains but is already provoking adaptation and potential pushback. The erosion of America’s long-term scientific and educational foundations is highlighted as the most worrying legacy.

This episode offers a sobering assessment not only of Trump’s second term, but also of the durability of U.S. influence and soft power in a rapidly shifting GZERO world.