Podcast Summary: GZERO World with Ian Bremmer

Episode: Venezuela after Maduro with Senator Gallego and Frank Fukuyama
Date: January 10, 2026
Host: Ian Bremmer
Guests: Senator Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Frank Fukuyama (Stanford University)

Overview

In this episode, Ian Bremmer explores the fallout from the recent U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, discusses the future of Venezuela, American power in the Western Hemisphere, and the implications for the so-called "Don Roe Doctrine." Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego offers insight from Capitol Hill, and political scientist Frank Fukuyama weighs in on the broader geopolitical consequences.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The U.S. Military Operation in Venezuela

• Decisive Action against Maduro

  • The Trump administration orchestrated a surprise military operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his wife, extraditing them to New York City.
  • The operation was a "striking demonstration of American power" and a display of military and intelligence capability unmatched globally.

    "This was an operation only the United States could have carried out." – Ian Bremmer (00:28)

  • Little international outcry due to the humanitarian devastation under Maduro, but significant uncertainty remains about what happens next.

• Immediate Political Consequences

  • Trump frames the event as a signature of his “Don Roe Doctrine,” signaling a return to assertive American dominance in its sphere of influence.
  • The show of force is seen as a political win for Trump at a moment of domestic challenge.

2. Uncertain Path Forward: U.S. Policy and Venezuelan Future

Insights from Senator Ruben Gallego

• GOP Response and Congressional Dynamics

  • Most Republican lawmakers publicly back Trump, but privately many are “waiting to see” if this escalates, especially if more U.S. troops are involved.

    "They're both fighting for the president's ear...the outcome would be entirely different." – Ruben Gallego (04:53)

• Lack of a Clear Plan

  • Gallego is critical of the administration’s lack of post-operation planning:

    "They're kind of just, you know, playing this as it goes, which is very scary." – Ruben Gallego (03:32)

  • The U.S. appears to hope that interim president Del C. Rodriguez, a Maduro ally, will both keep control and negotiate with Washington—an unlikely outcome.
  • The Venezuelan diaspora is left disappointed; the American public is confused or disengaged.

• Internal White House Divisions

  • Tensions exist between isolationist advisers (Stephen Miller, JD Vance) and those favoring democracy promotion (Marco Rubio).
  • There is no coherent strategy; messages out of the White House remain mixed.

• What Should Come Next?

  • Prioritize steps toward stable democracy: call for elections, release political prisoners, begin economic reform.

    "Release political prisoners to prove that you're willing to go down that road." – Ruben Gallego (07:22)

  • Suggests bipartisan Senate action using War Powers Resolutions, restricting funding for further military action, and diplomatic outreach to regional allies and Denmark regarding related U.S. ambitions in Greenland.

• Risks of Executive Overreach

  • Concerned that Trump might act unilaterally in Greenland and elsewhere, risking U.S. credibility and global stability.

    "Most important is for us to have a unified focus as a Senate to make sure we send that message to the White House." – Ruben Gallego (10:01)

3. Geopolitical Implications: Fukuyama’s Analysis

The “Don Roe Doctrine” and U.S. Strategy

• Spheres of Influence Return
  • Fukuyama expresses deep concern about the U.S. signaling raw dominance in the Western Hemisphere, neglecting interests elsewhere and endangering global order:

    "Even if [U.S. interests] were [only in the hemisphere], the assertion of dominance...is not a good look for American foreign policy." – Frank Fukuyama (12:22)

• Downgrading of Other Global Commitments
  • Despite arms sales to Taiwan and engagement in the Middle East, the administration’s strategy has largely deprioritized Russia and China.
  • Trump’s foreign policy is seen as driven by personal interests rather than strategic coherence.

The “One and Done” Problem & Nation Building

• Maduro’s Removal: Insufficient for Lasting Change

  • Removing Maduro doesn’t dismantle the regime’s corrupt apparatus:

    "The Venezuelan authoritarian regime does not revolve around Nicolas Maduro...he was just a frontman for a broader, in a way, criminal conspiracy." – Frank Fukuyama (15:10)

  • Drug trafficking, human rights abuses, and support for U.S. adversaries likely to continue.

• Refugee Issue

  • Without enabling conditions for return, millions of Venezuelan refugees—including many in the U.S.—will remain displaced.

• Path Forward: Difficult and Long-term

  • In the short run, stability may require engaging with interim leader Rodriguez, but U.S. oil blockade will further destabilize the Venezuelan economy.
  • Genuine nation-building and democratic legitimacy require patience and preparation—past failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere testify to this.

    "You have to have a government...people are willing to obey whose laws mean something to people." – Frank Fukuyama (17:12)

• Necessity for Pragmatism and Realism

  • Over-engineered plans are unrealistic in such chaos; improvisation is necessary.

The U.S. Military vs. Civilian Capacity

• Operational Excellence, Policy Failure
  • U.S. excels in military operations but lacks structures for post-conflict stabilization.

    “The military...is a really good institution that really learns...the civilian side, they don't.” – Frank Fukuyama (21:29)

4. Spillover Risks Across the Hemisphere

• Potential for Further “One and Done” Operations

  • Concerns Trump may target other states, such as Colombia (over narco-gangs) or Cuba, with quick military strikes.

    “I sort of liken it to a 10 year old boy with a...flamethrower in his backyard...” – Frank Fukuyama (24:07)

• Cuba’s Uncertain Future

  • Cuban regime now functions as a criminal enterprise; an imminent oil blockade may catalyze economic collapse, risking regional refugee crises.

• Mission Creep Warning

  • Quick interventions may morph into messy, open-ended entanglements:

    “You always have mission creep...you decide, well, we have to stabilize Cuba, and we can't really do that without putting people there.” – Frank Fukuyama (27:15)

5. Global Reactions and Norm Erosion

• International Response

  • Russia and China are critical but inactive; Europe is passive and cautious.
  • Global stability threatened as U.S. demonstrates willingness to ignore norms.

• Implications for Alliances

  • U.S. aggression in Greenland could fatally undermine NATO.

    “It can really kill NATO if the dominant NATO ally...becomes a major threat to other NATO allies.” – Frank Fukuyama (29:42)

• Norms in Free Fall

  • The erosion of longstanding democratic and international norms has been dramatic.
  • Fukuyama outlines a scenario where U.S. disregard for norms could shift global balance:

    "If you have a United States, the world’s most powerful country, that simply rips up norms...where do you think the world is likely to be geopolitically in five years time?" – Ian Bremmer (32:36)

Notable Quotes

• Ian Bremmer on American action:

  "This is the law of the jungle, where the biggest stick sets the rules and others adjust accordingly." (00:55)

• Senator Gallego on White House planning:

  "There really isn’t a plan. They're kind of just, you know, playing this as it goes, which is, you know, very scary that they’re doing that." (03:32)

• Frank Fukuyama on the problem with military “success”:

  "You cannot plan these things terribly well in advance because they always go sideways at some point in ways that you’re not expecting. The expectation that you can plan these things is a danger." (19:50)

• Fukuyama on norms and the future:

  “This is the problem that a spheres of influence kind of worldview allows... That’s not good for world peace.” (31:47)

Important Timestamps

• 00:28 – Ian Bremmer: "This was an operation only the United States could have carried out."
• 02:35 – Senator Ruben Gallego joins.
• 04:53 – Gallego on internal White House divisions.
• 07:22 – Gallego on releasing political prisoners.
• 10:01 – Gallego on Senate’s role in constraining executive action.
• 12:22 – Fukuyama on the “Don Roe Doctrine.”
• 15:10 – Fukuyama on the limits of removing Maduro.
• 17:12 – Fukuyama on the importance of legitimacy.
• 21:29 – Fukuyama on differences between U.S. military and State Department.
• 24:07 – Fukuyama’s “flamethrower” metaphor for Trump’s new military confidence.
• 27:15 – Mission creep danger: interventions rarely remain “limited.”
• 29:42 – Greenland, NATO, and the risk of U.S. actions destroying alliances.
• 32:54 – Fukuyama’s perspective on the world in five years.
• 36:01 – Fukuyama’s final reflection on Trump’s evolving use of power.

Tone and Language

• The tone of the episode is urgent, candid, and at times critical, reflecting deep unease about U.S. unilateralism and executive overreach.
• Both Gallego and Fukuyama balance harsh criticism with pragmatic suggestions, occasionally deploying vivid analogies (e.g., Fukuyama's flamethrower).
• The discussion blends sharp political insight with warnings about repeating historical mistakes and the fragility of global norms.

Conclusion

This episode illuminates the complexities and perils of U.S. intervention in Venezuela after Maduro’s removal, the dangerous allure of military success without diplomatic planning, and the broader hazards posed by an America willing to upend international norms. Guests warn that without careful, collaborative post-conflict engagement, the region—and the world—could see heightened instability and a profound reordering of the geopolitical landscape.