A Critical Stretch for your Money 7/23/25

Summary

Halftime Report: A Critical Stretch for Your Money (July 23, 2025)

Hosted by Scott Wapner and featuring CNBC’s top investors, including Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss, and Bryn Talkington, this episode delves into the current market dynamics amid a record-setting rally and the impending mega cap earnings season.

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1. Market Overview and Rally Dynamics

Scott Wapner opened the discussion by highlighting the robust performance of the stock market, noting, “dow up near 1%. There's the S and P getting a lift” ([02:28]). The conversation set the stage for examining what fuels this rally and what might sustain it in the coming weeks.

2. Mega Cap Earnings and Market Implications

As mega cap earnings season approached, the panel debated its potential impact on the ongoing market rally.

• Steve Weiss emphasized the importance of mega cap earnings, stating, “They're going to be critically important because what you want to pay attention to is the reaction” ([02:55]). He underscored that investor reactions to earnings reports would indicate whether the rally has momentum or is showing signs of exhaustion.

• Bryn Talkington observed, “Not a lot of exhaustion. It doesn't look like, not anywhere, anywhere” ([03:09]), suggesting that the rally remains strong despite high valuations.

3. Alphabet's Performance and AI Integration

A significant portion of the discussion centered around Alphabet (Google) and its integration of artificial intelligence.

• Jenny Harrington presented a nuanced view, stating, “The biggest question for Alphabet is whether its artificial intelligence push will cannibalize its highly lucrative search business” ([09:05]). She highlighted the balance Alphabet must maintain between AI innovation and sustaining its core revenue streams.

• Scott Wapner added depth by discussing Gartner’s forecast, “Gartner is forecasting a 25% drop in 2026 in single search engine queries” ([06:30]), raising concerns about Alphabet’s long-term earnings potential.

4. US-EU Tariff Deal Update

The panel addressed the potential resolution of US and EU tariff disputes, which had been a source of market uncertainty.

• Joe Terranova reported, “The FTSE is citing three people familiar with the discussion saying that the US and EU are closing in on a deal that would lead to 15% tariffs on all imports coming in from the European Union” ([10:31]). This proposed deal was seen as a positive step from the previously threatened 25-30% tariffs.

• Mackenzie Segalos cautioned about the timeline, noting, “These deals are very, very complicated... Here we're trying to do what's ever done typically takes multiple years” ([13:38]).

5. Market Rotation and the Russell Index

The performance of the Russell Index was scrutinized as a barometer for potential market rotation.

• Steve Weiss highlighted, “Russell's up 4% so far, month to date” ([12:10]), indicating strength in areas like materials, real estate, utilities, and industrials.

• Mackenzie Segalos provided realism, stating, “These deals are very, very complicated... Regardless of the result, it removes the uncertainty” ([14:02]).

6. Stock Highlights and Investment Insights

a. Berkshire Hathaway

• Bryn Talkington observed, “Berkshire Hathaway shares have underperformed since Warren Buffett's retirement announcement in May... down 11% since then” ([35:07]).

• Steve Weiss analyzed the decline, explaining, “...insurers have experienced catastrophic losses, impacting the portfolio overall” ([36:54]).

• Scott Wapner concluded, “I see this just as the Buffett premium fading and it's multiple contraction” ([38:16]).

b. Alphabet (GOOGL)

• Jenny Harrington forecasted growth, “Expectations are for 11 and 16% revenue and earnings growth” ([07:31]).

• Scott Wapner expressed caution about AI monetization, “I don't think their ability to actually monetize their AI has been clear” ([06:30]).

c. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)

• Jenny Harrington discussed the stock hitting a new 52-week low, yet she remains bullish, saying, “I'd be selling calls here” ([32:28]).

• Scott Wapner countered with a fundamental perspective, “If copper stays above $5, they produce $9 billion of free cash flow” ([32:57]).

d. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) & Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

• Steve Weiss highlighted Thermo Fisher’s political uncertainties as a deterrent to increasing holdings, “[...] too much ambiguity for us to want to increase thermo” ([30:14]).

• Intuitive Surgical faced challenges with declining procedure growth, “In 2023, we're talking about greater than 20%... this quarter, about 15%” ([31:19]).

7. PGA Tour Coverage

Shifting gears, the podcast included a segment on the PGA Tour’s 3M Open, discussing its significance for players vying for FedEx Cup points and Ryder Cup qualification.

• Joe Terranova detailed the competitive landscape: “Players will have to successfully navigate this week's venue here for the 3M Open” ([42:24]).

• Amy Rodgers provided insights on course conditions, anticipating “low scoring this weekend” ([40:51]).

8. Upcoming Earnings and Market Expectations

Anticipation was high for upcoming earnings reports, particularly from technology and construction sectors.

• Scott Wapner and Joe Terranova signaled cautious optimism, expecting some companies to beat earnings despite challenges posed by tariffs and economic uncertainty.

• Jenny Harrington advocated for a broad market participation strategy, emphasizing sectors outside the Mega Cap 7 (Mag 7) to capitalize on robust economic stimulus and clarity from recent trade deals.

9. Headlines and News Bits

The episode concluded with brief news updates, including:

• State Department investigation into Harvard’s visa program.
• Protests in Kyiv over anti-corruption agency autonomy.
• Health Secretary’s approval to remove thimerosal from flu shots.

10. Closing Trades and Final Insights

Before wrapping up, the panelists shared their final trades and investment considerations:

• Jenny Harrington recommended AbbVie (ABBV), anticipating a breakout post-earnings.
• Scott Wapner favored Western Union (WU) for its steady earnings and dividends, likening it to “owning a bond with an 11% yield” ([44:34]).
• Steve Weiss pointed to Live Nation as a potential breakout candidate ahead of its earnings report.

Scott Wapner summed up the overall sentiment, “I'm significantly more positive on those areas right now” ([18:35]), reflecting a balanced outlook amidst a complex market environment.

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Notable Quotes:

• Steve Weiss ([02:55]): “What you want to pay attention to is the reaction. Do we get a continuation of a lot of good news and good price action or do we finally signal that there's exhaustion in the market?”

• Jenny Harrington ([09:05]): “The biggest question for Alphabet is whether its artificial intelligence push will cannibalize its highly lucrative search business.”

• Scott Wapner ([38:16]): “I see this just as the Buffett premium fading and it's multiple contraction.”

• Jenny Harrington ([07:31]): “Expectations are for 11 and 16% revenue and earnings growth.”

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Conclusion:

The episode underscored the critical nature of the upcoming earnings season and its potential to either bolster the current market rally or introduce signs of fatigue. With mega cap companies at the forefront, the panel emphasized the importance of monitoring investor reactions and the broader economic indicators influenced by recent trade agreements. Additionally, diversification beyond the Mag 7 was advocated to navigate the evolving market landscape effectively.

Transcript

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[Steve Weiss]

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[Bryn Talkington]

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[Steve Weiss]

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[Bryn Talkington]

And you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, a critical stretch for your money as mega cap earnings begin. In a matter of hours, we'll debate what's at stake for this record setting rally. Joining me for the hour today, Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss and Bryn Talkington. We'll take you to the markets. Carl, just set the table for you with that news from the ftse. It's given a little bit more of a bump to stocks as you see dow up near 1%. There's the S and P getting a lift. We can show you intraday too because it really does tell the story as these trade headlines continue to come in. There you go. There's your S and P midday. Joe, we have a very big stretch that now begins over the next couple of weeks because mega cap earnings, as I said, kick off in a couple hours. We can show you the calendar which really lays it out mostly next week, but some important ones are this week, too. What's at stake?

[Steve Weiss]

Well, first of all, that stretch begins with you coming back. Great to see you.

[Bryn Talkington]

He behave himself while I was gone. And he, he being Weiss modestly.

[Steve Weiss]

But I know now that you will rein him in and keep him under control.

[Bryn Talkington]

I've been unleashed, rested.

[Steve Weiss]

You are well rested.

[Bryn Talkington]

He was unleashed when I was.

[Steve Weiss]

Look, Scott, I mean, while you were away. And even today, it's just a continuation of really, really good news for the market to cheer and applaud. And several weeks ago I told you I expected that the third quarter, this was the potential quarter where you get a little sideways to lower action. I still think the leading Indicator for that is going to be the semiconductors and going to be the technology names. So here we are, we're stepping into earnings. Alph, bet, Tesla, IBM next week. Obviously we know the rest of the Mag 7 and they're going to be critically important. They're going to be critically important because what you want to pay attention to is the reaction. What is the reaction? Do we get a continuation of a lot of good news and good price action or do we finally signal that there's exhaustion in the market, the need to pull back, good performance? Kind of you get the good earnings but you don't get the performance.

[Bryn Talkington]

Not a lot of exhaustion. It doesn't look like, not anywhere, anywhere. Joe T's at A, @ a record high. That gives you an idea of the momentum that remains behind this record setting rally. Jenny. So you have a lot on the line for a lot of stocks that have done unbelievably well over the last three months from the mega cap space. That is where the epicenter of this whole thing is. Nvidia is up 65% in three months. Meta 36, Microsoft 34, Tesla 33, Amazon 26. Alphabet's up only 22%. Only 22% and no one owns it today. Why? Why did people write this company off and their position within AI? Too much too soon. What do you think?

[Mackenzie Segalos]

I think this is a welcome back to you which is that I own such a small, small piece of Google Alphabet that I sold 95% of the position but said, you know, it's pretty cheap. I do have my concerns. So I am participating not in anything, any meaningful way. If stock doubled from here, it really wouldn't matter. I think the issue is still there and I think why people bought it is that Waymo is number one. If you take a look at what happened after, after we had Tesla have their Robotaxi announcement, it started moving up and people focused on that. And I also think that they're looking for companies that are cheaper, you know, that are left behind. So they may have enough meta, they may have enough Microsoft, they may have enough the other Mac 7 to say, look, you know, they stand a really good chance of definitely being in the conversation with AI. And right now that's more important to me as is Waymo, than perhaps losing share in search.

[Bryn Talkington]

Your pal Farmer Jim made a good call on this name.

[Steve Weiss]

Sure did.

[Bryn Talkington]

On the day of the Eddy Q. Yep. Sell off. Yeah, right. He's in the courtroom, he's talking about, well, first time ever, you know, we see a drop off in search. And the stocks are, oh, stock goes down, everybody, including many on this desk.

[Steve Weiss]

Josh and I pushed back on him. Sorry, Jenny Step. Well, we push back.

[Bryn Talkington]

Maybe this is existential now because this is what they are, this is at their core. And the stock's up 25% since that day.

[Scott Wapner]

Since that day.

[Bryn Talkington]

25% since these quote unquote Eddy Q. Sell off.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, but that's a small time period. So maybe if you're a trader and.

[Bryn Talkington]

You know, stocks up 25% since the like a tremor, okay.

[Scott Wapner]

And it's up went through the valley year to date and up 5% over the last 52 weeks. But I'll tell you why we don't own it, because this is one that I've been telling you. Amazon and Alphabet have been kind of pecking at the edges of our screen every week for our discipline growth strategy where we're looking for a high free cash flow yield and the free cash flow yield is getting there. But here's why we haven't bought it. And it really boils down to just this. Gartner is forecasting a 25% drop in 2026 in single search engine queries. At the same time, you look at, you look at Metta and they've got 90% margins in their single search engine queries, right? So however you look at it, even if they do great in AI, even if they do great with Gemini, it is not as profitable as the main business and that keeps us at bay. So you look at it and you're like, okay, 19 times decent earnings growth ahead. But compared to all the other mag sevens, I think that their earnings are more at risk. I know me personally, I am borderline not using Google to search anymore. I'm using ChatGPT, I'm using Claude, I'm using Grok. I look at Gemini complexity, it's on.

[Bryn Talkington]

And on and on and on. But.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

And you can maybe that's why the mobiles had a 40% discount.

[Steve Weiss]

That's why it's the cheapest max.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

I mean, that's right.

[Bryn Talkington]

Let me tell you something. It's always been, no, the cheapest of the Mag 7.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

But because you're buying an ad company, right? I mean that's basically what it is. That's where they made the money. But this may all turn around. It may be down 15% tomorrow.

[Steve Weiss]

You also have the DOJ ruling that is, is ultimately we're going to learn in August what the resolve resolution of that is going to be. Do they need to be broken up? That's important as well. But this quarter, but that's 50 if.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

If the sum of the parts.

[Steve Weiss]

But why has it gone up 10 straight days? It's about this quarter. It's about Google cloud being really strong. It's about digital ad sales coming back very strong in the quarter and I think tonight they're going to report a really good quarter.

[Bryn Talkington]

Yeah, Brian, we almost buried the lead. It's, it's coming off 10 days in a row up. It's trying for the longest winning streak ever today and now it gets added to the top picks list at Oppenheimer. What are your expectations for this evening?

[Jenny Harrington]

Well, I think that with Google you're the expectations are for 11 and 16% revenue and earnings growth. But I think where as everyone's talking about whether It's Claude, Gemini, etc. All of these are going to look more and more the same. And so I think where Google long term has a challenge, you look at these companies, Google is actually the most vertically integrated to win. And if you think about Gmail, Google Calendar, Google search, you have YouTube. Google has all of our data. They could easily flip that on and make a really powerful AI assistant. But I think it would freak everybody out because at the end of the day, guess what, they still sell our data. And so I think that where you have, you know, Mark Zuckerberg is just like full force coaching talent. They can get their AI in Instagram and Facebook and monetize that. I just still feel that with Google it will remain a cheaper name because I don't think their ability to actually monetize their AI has been clear. And I don't think we'll get any clarity of the ability to monetize which is the key thing, monetize AI whereas with Meta, you know, they're going to monetize it via Instagram and, and Facebook because we all buy stuff every time we go on there.

[Bryn Talkington]

That is the key. Can they maximize their monetization model? It's unproven. Mackenzie Segallos is following that for us from San Francisco today because that's the key question. Mackenzie isn't absolutely is Scott.

[Jenny Harrington]

The biggest question for Alphabet is whether its artificial intelligence push will cannibalize its highly lucrative search business.

[Joe Terranova]

So investors are really watching to see.

[Jenny Harrington]

If this AI pivot can power growth without destabilizing Google's core. The company rolled out AI overviews and a new AI mode tab this quarter, but there's still no clear monetization model. Analysts expect softer click volumes but better conversion rates. Still, some signs of resilience. You've got Raymond James noting that impressions are rising as advertisers boost paid search budgets to offset lost organic traffic. Cloud remains another key focus. Alphabet spending $75 billion to expand data centers for Gemini and its enterprise tools as it tries to catch up to us. And app Azure shares are lower today, snapping that 10 day win streak, its.

[Scott Wapner]

Longest in nearly 15 years.

[Joe Terranova]

Alphabet is up just 4% over the.

[Jenny Harrington]

Past year, trailing the Nasdaq 100 and all Mag 7 names except Apple.

[Bryn Talkington]

Scott we'll get more questions. I don't know to what degree we'll get the answers we want fully at least the skeptics. Mackenzie, thank you for that. Mackenzie Segalis in San Francisco. We'll continue the conversation in a moment, but we do have the highs of the day for stocks. Let's go to Megan casella down in D.C. now with a news alert. More perhaps on that FTSE headline that the United States and the European Union are reportedly close to a tariff deal. What do we know?

[Joe Terranova]

That's absolutely right, Scott. The FTSE is citing three people familiar with the discussion saying that the US And EU are closing in on a deal that would lead to 15% tariffs on all imports coming in from the European Union. Now stocks are up on this because that would be a big step down from the 25% threats, 25 and 30% threats I should say, that we've seen against the EU so far. Now the FT does use some interesting wording here saying Brussels could agree to these tariff rates. So there's nothing set in stone. And I want to highlight that I talked to a White House official just a few minutes ago about this and the official said to me that it's very fluid and close is relative. So this is a very fast moving situation and nothing has been finalized yet, but they are looking at a 15% tariff deal here. Now the FT also reports that both sides would waive tariffs on some products, including aircraft, spirits and medical devices. So more to come on all of this, Scott. But we do know this headline comes just after European officials have continued to meet with their US Counterparts this week, including Commerce Secretary Lutnick earlier today. And we do know they were briefing EU member states today, leading now to this headline about 15% tariffs.

[Bryn Talkington]

Scott all right, good stuff, Megan. Thanks. Keep us updated please. Megat Hasella down in D.C. we said stocks at the high show the Russell too, because the Russell is the best of the bunch today. It also has the most ground by far to make up year to date. There's no Question about that. It's barely up 2% relative to everything else, which has pretty much done well. Obviously the market over the past few months has ripped in general year to date. It's a little bit of different story. When you look at the full scorecard.

[Steve Weiss]

Russell's up 4% so far, month to date.

[Bryn Talkington]

You start to get more of these deals where you start talking about tariffs in the past tense rather than what's still to come. Is that the thing that ignites the broader rotation? Because there are some today like JP Morgan says, investors should still be on the lookout for a market rotation.

[Steve Weiss]

So here's the interesting thing about that. I think that the, the overall investment bias from money managers is going to be skepticism because so many times over the last several years we have believed that this is the moment that the Russell is finally going to have its mean reversion and begin to outperform. Now what I could tell you, and just purely looking at my strategies, looking at momentum so far, month to date, it is the Russell that is leading higher, up 4% relative to the S&P, up 4 too. Underneath the surface you have materials, real estate, utilities, industrials that are kind of moving that and advancing it forward and even to a certain extent some of the financial companies. So to your point, there is something building here. Fundamentally what's really left is in terms of the tariff resolutions, a deal with the Chinese. Yes, that's still something that needs to be resolved. Mexico, Canada, India. India. But we're getting there. We're getting there and I think we're getting there a little bit faster than we expected. And if we do that, then you can expect that you are going to see that mean reversion catch up.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

You know, I'm not going to nitpick with faster than expected because the markets already assumed it's going to happen. Given that it's trading at highs. These deals are very, very complicated. In closing, a normal transaction is a six month process. Here we're trying to do what's ever done typically takes multiple years. So regardless of what the result is, whether it's 15, which I think is very reasonable and actually a great tariff, or whether it's 25, heck, a lot.

[Bryn Talkington]

Better than what the alternative could be.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

Yep. And it removes the uncertainty and you could move on. So this will to me obscure any poor earnings from the Mag 7, although we're seeing today that the, that NASDAQ is decidingly lagging and actually sold off on the news. So it's the broader, it's the Russell as you Point out. And it's. It's the S and P. Well, the.

[Bryn Talkington]

More deals you get, the more clarity you get. And here we are in earnings season, as we just said. Forget about the notion that CEOs can't give guidance because they don't know what the environment is going to look like in the months ahead. The more deals you get, you cross those off the list and you're like, well, I have a better idea of what my capex is going to look like. I have a better idea of what my margins are going to look like. That's the whole game.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

And equally important. Or perhaps.

[Jenny Harrington]

And you also. Oh, yeah, but you also get with the bill that was passed, clarity from a tax perspective of I can write off R and D, I can write off this, I can't write off that. And so I think between the huge amount of stimulus that the economy, not equally, but the economy, parts of the economy, economy Are going to get from the bill that was passed, plus the clarity plus, we saw a budget surplus last month. If that can continue, we'll see. I think that all of a sudden it wasn't that CEOs knew that things were going to be bad last quarter. There was uncertainty. And so I think as the economy is doing fine and I think the economy is going to pick up, it has to pick up. You can't pass this multitrillion dollar bill and not have it be stimulative. That creates problems. And so I think it does set up for a back half that just continues to be robust. I mean, our way to play the broadening has been. We've owned it since January of 2024 has been RSP. So although it's equal by company, it's not equal by sector. And so financials and industrials are the two largest sectors. And so that's where I think is important to start getting these other areas. I think small caps are a little bit different, but other areas outside of the Mag 7, having those areas be dragged along with the Mag 7, it's not that there's going to be a rotation. It's that a broadening out where there's more participation, I think would make sense with the narrative that we have between trade deals. But I think the budget, the trade. The budget deal more important.

[Bryn Talkington]

Mm.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

The critical point here, if I just. If I could, is that it gives the Fed visibility on inflation.

[Bryn Talkington]

Things remain the same minutes.

[Steve Weiss]

And here we go.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

Well, it's critical. You know, when you have information, everybody needs to.

[Bryn Talkington]

I hear you.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

Inflation, the Fed is the primary objective.

[Bryn Talkington]

Here, but you need the, you need the, for the real broadening to take effect. I'm not talking about small caps, whatever. You need the fog to dissipate and you need the muck to stay off the windshield. Right. That's been the story the. Thus far.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah. And so for, if I, if I get like really granular at the stock level and try and go exactly there, I look at my portfolio and you see things like Whirlpool and Stanley and Lyondale Basel that have had enormous relief in the past couple of days. And you could say, okay, the uncertainty is dissipating. But to me it almost just feels like relief, which is this isn't going to be quite as bad. So these stocks traded down tremendously in the immediate aftermath of Liberation Day. And then they didn't have the bounce that the rest of the market had because there was exactly, as you said, Scott, too much muck on the windshield. And so now there's more clarity. There's just straight up relief that they know what, they know what their input costs are going to be. They know, they know how things are going to play out in that. So it's just, it's a healthier consumer, it's a healthier cog, you know, cogs cost of goods sold for them. It's a, it's just a healthier environment. And you see crazy relief. Like those stocks are up 4 and 5% yesterday, they're up almost 3% today. That's not, that's not anything changed at the exact company. It's just the environment taking.

[Bryn Talkington]

Are you more positive? Hold on, Joe. Are you more positive than you've been in months?

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, still not necessarily on the broader market. And it's the same reason over and over, which is 22 times for the broader market. To me, just prices to perfection and a perfect economy and a perfect growth scenario. But you step back from that and you look at, at strategies that aren't trading at 22 times, right? So you can look at value, you can look at mid cap, you can look at the dividend stocks and they're trading at a fraction, they're 15 times earnings, 13 times earnings. They have decent growth head. So I'm significantly more positive on those areas right now.

[Bryn Talkington]

So if we were trading at 22 times prior to the tax cuts getting extended and prior to the tax, the tariff deals getting done, then why can't we justify that, if not more? If you think that the growth that all of that is going to stimulate is actually going to be strong enough to justify.

[Scott Wapner]

Because here's the thing. You said tax cuts extended.

[Bryn Talkington]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

So nothing actually improves on any corporate balance sheet because their tax rate isn't suddenly lower. So they're not actually making any more money. They're just not going to make less money because taxes were, went back to what they were. So I think that was incorporated in. And then with tariffs they're still significantly worse. So prior to April 4, prior to April 3. Right. Second whatever day it was, the historic tariff on average in the United States was 3% on April 8th. It was 30% today even after what we've just seen, it's about 15%. So tariffs today are five times more than they've been for the past 25 years. Yeah, but the level of better.

[Bryn Talkington]

But what happens the level of economic growth, the potential of it is so much greater than it. What than it has been.

[Scott Wapner]

Why, why is it so much greater than it was?

[Bryn Talkington]

I mean I don't know. So you got, so you got, you got the tax thing done.

[Scott Wapner]

You're going to have a status quo now.

[Bryn Talkington]

Is it deregulate? Is deregulation status quo?

[Scott Wapner]

We haven't seen a lot of that coming. So for my, for the banks, for the midstream energy like I'm psychedelic. Right. And we, and the deregulation should be really great in those areas that's really.

[Bryn Talkington]

Going to impact rates coming down like.

[Scott Wapner]

Housing market getting argue with you on rates rates. The Fed cut 100 basis points last year. The, the interest rates actually matter. The ten year, the five year didn't move.

[Steve Weiss]

What's the impact on the most important tailwind in the market? Earnings. What's the damage to earnings from what you're talking about? Because we're, we're looking at.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, here's the answer Joe. Nobody knows.

[Steve Weiss]

Well wait a second. We are 20% in for the current earnings. The EPS beats are close to 90%. One year ago there 80 hold on.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

There was still major advanced buying in front of the tariffs in front of the tariffs coming into effect. You saw a major advance buying. So tariffs have had no effect. The effects still have good earnings after this quarter.

[Steve Weiss]

But you don't have that. You don't financial sectors where things on.

[Scott Wapner]

Stale economic, on a stale economic environment and even Jay Powell said before he's like look I really can't cut rates right now. Especially with the tariffs being kicked.

[Bryn Talkington]

Especially not especially with the tariffs. He, he, they would have cut rates if not for the tariffs and the.

[Scott Wapner]

Tariffs being kicked down to August 1st. He said now it's even further before we can see there's going to be.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

A negative impact from the tariffs, unquestionably because you're raising costs, you don't know what. But as far as the market's concerned, the base case has shifted and been accepted at a much higher level than 5%. So while I agree with you in terms of where it was was versus where it is, I also don't believe it matters right now. Could it matter in earnings in subsequent quarters? Absolutely, and I think it will. That's very clear.

[Bryn Talkington]

Let's talk about clarity, Muck, whatever you want to say about Tesla and whether you get Brin any more clarity today with the earnings after the bell, because we need answers. Investors do. Bulls like you, although that's. Your enthusiasm has been more tempered, I think of late. You've articulated that well in the, in the shows that we've discussed. This stock, whether it's regarding EV sales in general, whether it is regarding whatever brand damage was done by the founder as a result of the foray into the political arena as, as dramatically as, as Elon Musk did. Do we get any answers? Do we get any clarity tonight?

[Jenny Harrington]

No, I don't. I don't think on the, you know, where I've been, I think really clear is like the fundamental business today is in decline. So the Expectations are like negative 13, negative 22% revenue and earnings. So going in the wrong direction. But I think on top of robotics, you know, they opened that really cool spot in Hollywood which has just been packed, which is very positive, I think with robotics, with electricity, you know, with Robotaxi, with fsd, these things the market has said we will give this company the benefit of the doubt. And as I said the other day, you know, I bought it at 293 the other day when the market had a panic attack because he's going to give some money to politicians like everybody other everyone else does. And look, the stock is already at 333. And so I think as an investor, know where you are. I think the stock continues to trade in the two 60s to 70 to three 50s and so three 60s. And so I think we're at the top end of that range. So I would be selling calls up here because I don't think it's going to go through that until you actually start seeing new revenue streams actually even remotely begin to monetize. So I just still say trade the channel in the company because you can make a ton of money selling calls on the stock.

[Bryn Talkington]

So Joe, in the most recent rebalance. Rebalance right you didn't bounce Tesla.

[Steve Weiss]

Well, we're going to. At the end of the month, we're going to rebalance once again. The end of July, we rebalance. So we'll take a look at it. To Brent's point, though, the momentum, it has bounced from earlier in the month when we came in and we, we had that weekend where it was below $300. But from a fundamental perspective, nothing has changed.

[Bryn Talkington]

Roth says going to 395.

[Steve Weiss]

Well, look, fundamentally, this company has challenges and in front of it, I don't think Britain would disagree with that. When you have a quarter in which you're down 20% on your revenue growth, and you're down 9% rather 20% on, on earnings growth, 9% on your revenue growth, and now you're going to do that again in the current quarter, there's a growth challenge in front of you. And you have to question from a fundamental perspective, where do you see that turn in growth? And I'm not sure there's anything in front of us other than Elon Musk getting on the call tonight saying, hey, I'm back and I'm paying attention and I'm driving the train.

[Bryn Talkington]

Talk a lot about.

[Steve Weiss]

Enough.

[Bryn Talkington]

You can talk a lot about autonomous.

[Steve Weiss]

You could talk about.

[Bryn Talkington]

That's the obvious future.

[Steve Weiss]

Well, we know about the rollout of the Robo taxi in Austin. We know that, but we also know Bryn's waving her hand over there. We also know that Waymo's got some really good technology and Waymo has a nice partnership with Uber. It's one of the reasons why I own Uber.

[Bryn Talkington]

Bryn, you wave now you.

[Jenny Harrington]

Well, yeah. Okay, well, two things on Waymo, doesn't the Waymo cost $200,000 per car? Okay, so it's just like, realistically, this company, I don't, I don't know how that's revenue positive. I think, though, where from an earnings perspective, we need to talk about China. And they actually just, I think they're just starting to sell, are going to start selling the Y xl. So they're making in China a third row and slightly longer models. Why? I think it's going to have really good reception. But ultimately, you know, US Sales, European sales, the issue is like, what's happening in China. So from a fundamental perspective, I do still think that's the biggest risk. I don't know what these numbers will be because China just continues to flood their own market with these EV companies. And so but once again, this, this, there's no better innovator of our time. And so I think this is where the market is. Like Jensen Huang has said ad nauseam, it is impossible to see how they stood up xi in what, 30 days. And so I just think that's why the market will continue to give the benefit of the doubt with this company. It's going to continue to be one of the most valuable companies in the world.

[Bryn Talkington]

Okay, we will take a quick break. We come back. We have a stock hitting a new 52 week low today and Jenny's buying more of it. We're going to tell you what it is next.

[Jenny Harrington]

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[Joe Terranova]

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[Jenny Harrington]

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[Steve Weiss]

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[Joe Terranova]

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[Bryn Talkington]

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[Steve Weiss]

Register [e-mail] Personal Brand we are back.

[Bryn Talkington]

Can we take a look at a one year of Fiserv, please? There's a stock today, it's down 17%. They cut their sales guidance. Let's look at the 52 week chart because the stock hit a new 52 week low. Jenny owns it. Jenny's buying more. Why?

[Scott Wapner]

Right. So this is a stock that we originally bought 12 years ago. In 2013 we paid $25 a share for it. We're up 400 plus percent. We actually and this is really critical to why we added More today we actually trimmed this in February when the stock was trading at $230 a share. And the reason we trimmed it was because it had grown so much that it was a 6% position trading at 23 times earnings. And we thought at 23 times earnings it's really pricing in perfection. And perfection in that case case were was really high future growth rates that we thought were a little too ambitious. So here we are. They reported today, stocks down a bunch. It's now trading at 12 times earnings. When you said they reduced sales guidance, it's to 10% from the range of 10 to 10 to 12% they still reaffirmed earnings guidance which is still 15 to 17%. So you can buy a stock that's trading at 12 times earnings, 15 to 17 times EPS guidance. All their businesses, Zelle Clover have huge growth. Clover is growing at like 30%. Zelle is growing at 19% as a 7% free cash flow yield. It's just kind of perfect. By the way, earnings growth next year. So I told you it's like 15 to 17% this year 26 is supposed to be 17%. The year after that 27 is still expected to be 15%. So yeah, that's not the huge growth that it used to be, but it's still amazing. And here's another fun fact on this. They've delivered double digit earnings growth for 40 years straight. So you know how Steve always talks about permanent compounders, like this is the definition of a permanent compounder. And this also when you ask me why I don't love the market.

[Bryn Talkington]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

And I say it's trading at too rich a multiple and I think it's expecting too much growth. Like this is, this is the microcosm of that. At 23 times it was just expecting too high growth rates than it could actually deliver. But we love it. Still holding it and happy to bump it up.

[Bryn Talkington]

Okay, what do you think about Thermo Fisher, which you also own, which is going in the opposite direction today? We can take a look at that. They beat, they raise their guide and the CFO is retiring early. But there's the stock, it's up 12 and a third percent today.

[Scott Wapner]

So thermo is another long term holding, not quite as long, but we've had it for five and a half years. It's up 70% and with. And it is a fantastic company, fantastic management, fantastic businesses. But what they do is like medical device testing. All of that with all of the budget cuts and the cuts from the NIH and the cuts to Universities. This has too much, too much ambiguity for us to add to it now. We actually did a really deep dive on it last week, thinking is now the time to add, should we bump the position up? And there's just too much kind of political uncertainty out there for us to want to increase thermo. So we're comfortable holding, but we don't want it to be a bigger position than it is is right now.

[Bryn Talkington]

Boston Scientific record high today after they beat. They raised their guide Joe as well.

[Steve Weiss]

Organic sales growth 19%. You have to love that. Cardio division remarkably strong. There are names in health care that could work.

[Bryn Talkington]

Intuitive Surgical, one of those that raise their gross profit margin guidance range. Gross profit margin guidance range.

[Steve Weiss]

So in the health care sector, this has been a momentum favorite name for the last several years for sure. Now it's struggling.

[Bryn Talkington]

Why are you looking at Weiss?

[Steve Weiss]

It was high. Well, Steve knows because he owns a Joe Ta. He does, and it's been in the Jotifan.

[Bryn Talkington]

Steve doesn't give you as much props as you deserve. The guy as an investor in your. Your ETF hitting a record high today. What the heck is the matter with you?

[Mackenzie Segalos]

He's my only external manager.

[Steve Weiss]

He is discreet. He does it off air, which he does it the right way. Let's talk about Intuitive Surgical because there's a problem here. The problem is the development Vinci procedures. The growth in it continue to decline. In 2023, you're talking about greater than 20%. Last year it declined down to about 17%. They guided today about 15%. That's the challenge. Growth and procedures not there.

[Bryn Talkington]

Okay. Capital One, record high.

[Steve Weiss]

Capital One, you got that? Net interest income 32%. Discover deal closed.

[Bryn Talkington]

General Dynamics record high.

[Steve Weiss]

I never thought that I would would have to pay so much attention, do so much work on the defense names that we own. Jenny, yesterday, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman. One's up 8%, the other's down 8% is a completely idiosyncratic story. Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, they have momentum right now. General Dynamics was strong. The marine segment was strong yesterday. Northrop Grumman benefiting from the Sentinel missile program and the procurement obviously impacting Lockheed Martin. That's the one that has lost all of its momentum.

[Bryn Talkington]

Well, Morgan Stanley makes Northrop a new top pick in defense today. Morgan Stanley also says that Lockheed is too cheap to ignore. There was a call on the other side of that name, but that's just a look at that since you brought it up. Freeport. Jenny, you own Freeport. Bryn, you own Freeport too. Let's go to you on that. They, they beat as well. What's that stock doing there? It is, it's down about 2%.

[Jenny Harrington]

So this stock, and I've talked about this before, has had really, really hard time getting above that 4546. I thought it was going to break out last week when they announced the copper, the copper tariffs and so, but it hasn't. And so I think you're still at the upper side of the channel. So I'd be selling calls heel here. But I mean, once again, as you know, copper there is their main business. They had really, really nice numbers. So. But I do think from a stock perspective that 4546 does seem to be a very strong ceiling that it can't get over.

[Bryn Talkington]

Jenny, you have a thought on that?

[Scott Wapner]

I don't know from, you know, Britain's looking at it from a technical perspective. I'm looking at it more from a fundamental perspective and I actually use this as my final trade last week because basically if copper stays above $5 a share, sorry, $5, whatever, if it stays above about $5, they produce $9 billion of free cash flow, which is just tremendous. I think there's amazing upside here. It's not that cheap. It trades at 20 times earnings but earnings growth is like 20%, 40%. It's just huge. So I'm all in. I don't like that. I don't like the technical 45 top, but I think from a fundamental perspective it should be way higher.

[Bryn Talkington]

All right, let's get the headlines now with Silvana now. Hi, Silvana.

[Joe Terranova]

Hey, Scott. Good afternoon. The State Department is opening an investigation into Harvard's use of international visas. Secretary of State Marco Rubio today gave the university one week to produce records in relation the program, the visa program, and said the department plans to interview staff associated with the program. And it comes as the institution and the administration have been battling in the courts for months. Harvard has yet to respond for comment. Protests erupted on the streets of Kyiv Wednesday over a law Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed that limits the autonomy of the country's top two anti corruption agencies. And it comes after the country's domestic security agency arrested two anti corruption officials on suspicion of having ties to Russia. And Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Today approved a vaccine panel's recommendation to remove the mercury based preservatives thimerosal from all flu shots in the U.S. the panel chosen by Kennedy made the recommendation last month and the lone dissenter noted that no study has ever indicated any harm from femarocell. Scott, I'll send it back to you.

[Bryn Talkington]

All right, Silvana. Thank you, Silvana. Now coming up next, we have calls of the day. We have a bullish call on Berkshire Hathaway stock that hasn't done anything since Mr. Buffett made that big announcement announcement at that meeting back in May. Shares are down double digits since then. Joe owns it. What gets that stock moving again? Joe will tell you next.

[Scott Wapner]

Ben hadn't had a decent night's sleep in a month.

[Bryn Talkington]

So during one of his restless nights.

[Steve Weiss]

He booked a package trip abroad on Expedia.

[Scott Wapner]

When he arrived at his beachside hotel, he discovered a miraculous bed slam between.

[Bryn Talkington]

Two trees and fell into the best sleep of his life.

[Joe Terranova]

You were made to be rechargeable.

[Bryn Talkington]

We were made to package flights and.

[Joe Terranova]

Hotels and hammocks for less.

[Steve Weiss]

Expedia made to travel a huge hour of earnings after The Bell Alphabet, IBM, Tesla, Chipotle, T Mobile. Plus break down the numbers with the CEOs of Chipotle and T Mobile. Closing Bell overtime today for 4 Eastern and streaming on CNBC. Plus.

[Bryn Talkington]

We'Re back. Berkshire Hathaway shares have underperformed since Warren Buffett's retirement announcement in May at the annual meeting. We're down 11% since then. And Berkshire had been on a really hot streak. Right. Is this just because we're trying to figure out what life without Warren Buffett and as CEO is going to look like? What's the story here? People love him. They love this stock. What do they think now?

[Steve Weiss]

A little bit of a cult following. I think that some of the stuff a little bit for good reason. Let's break it down. A little bit of a cult following. So I think some of the sell off is attributable to people that saying, okay, Warren Buffett no longer in control, therefore I'm going to take my capital and move it elsewhere. But I also think you have to look at what the company owns. The company has significant ownership of companies in Japan. The company obviously has a significant stake in Apple. They also have insurance positions are big.

[Bryn Talkington]

Wow.

[Steve Weiss]

We mind melded there. It's amazing. You come back and immediately. Yeah. So insurance companies and we'll talk about the earnings from Chubb later on. But a lot of these insurance companies which we on the desk over the last 12 to 18 months, I'll raise my hand. I was one of them. We were just enamored with the strength of insurance company and property and casualty. Well now you're seeing the effect of Catastrophic losses. So that is impacting his portfolio overall. I think they also increased their stake in dominoes, which really hasn't performed as you would expect relative to maybe something like a shake shack. So underneath the hood, some, some of the holdings and he also has energy holdings, Occidental and Chevron. Underneath the hood, those holdings maybe haven't performed as expected at the same time that you had some of that cult following capital move away because he is stepping down.

[Scott Wapner]

Can I put a little a similar but different spin on it? Which is I frequently hear clients say oh, rather than just buying spiders, I'm going to buy Berkshire. Right. And to many people it's kind of equated with an investment in the US stock market, but maybe a little more curated. So if you look at the multiple of 22 times on them on the market and over 30 times on Berkshire, I think you could say that differential is the Buffett premium. So to me I see this just as the Buffett premium fading and it's multiple contraction. I'm sure you're right.

[Steve Weiss]

Look at the holdings of the holdings.

[Scott Wapner]

If you look at the holdings of The S&P 500 you have the same mishmash of some things working. Something's not working.

[Steve Weiss]

Far more diversified, he's more concentrated.

[Scott Wapner]

Fair enough. I'm just saying some things work, some things don't. So I see it, I see that as a valuation premium fading. With Buffett leaving, it's going to take a long time for anyone who replaces him to get a premium valuation based on the cachet of their name. Like maybe, I don't know, decades.

[Bryn Talkington]

Well, we'll see about that. Let's talk about some other calls. App loven top pick BTIG target 483 from 480 they bump it up a.

[Steve Weiss]

Few bucks sideways momentum in the stock. It's been that way now for several months. They report earnings in August. I believe it's August 6th. I think you really have to wait to see what the earnings are going to look like and what the revenue growth slowdown is going to look like because the market is anticipating that revenue growth is going to begin to slow obviously from a much higher level, plus 50% but it is going to be begin to slow.

[Bryn Talkington]

You could you consider this a high beta name?

[Steve Weiss]

Yes.

[Bryn Talkington]

So it's peculiar to me hearing you talk about that when the high beta ETF has been crushing it so called lower quality stocks have been hitting new highs repeatedly. Whether I was pre vacation during vacation or now.

[Steve Weiss]

Yeah.

[Bryn Talkington]

So what's wrong with this one so this, this one fall out of favor from the batch?

[Steve Weiss]

No, I think, I think I'd call it a little bit of a misstep. And that's what happened in February. And it had a, I'm looking at it has significant decline from five and a quarter. It was literally cut in half. That's a powerful decline that you have to recover from. And I think it's in the process of recovering. It got above 400. It sits at 350 now. But you go through a process, I often say stocks go in the penalty box. I think you go through a process where it takes time to recover from such a calamitous effect on a stock.

[Bryn Talkington]

Maybe this one got a game misconduct. Not, not just in the penalty box. Well, it's, it's certainly other ones have taken the ice. How far do you want to run with this?

[Steve Weiss]

As far as you want.

[Bryn Talkington]

All right. Still ahead, we do have the earnings set up on a few more committee stocks to discuss. We'll do that after the break. Welcome back. Our friends at Golf Channel. Following the tour and the latest stop this week on the PGA Tour is the 3M Open report. Amy Rodgers joins us live from Minnesota with what to expect. And what is, Amy, one of the last chances for those who think they have a spot up for grabs on the Ryder cup to make their mark?

[Joe Terranova]

That's right. There's so much on the line here in this closing stretch of the season and this week's 3M Open, one of just two regular season events left on the PGA Tour schedule. And that means it's also an opportunity for players to pick up some much needed FedEx cup points. The top 70 in the point standings will qualify for that first playoff event. That's in mid August. And the standings will be finalized. Who gets into that first playoff event after next week's Wyndham Championship? And you mentioned those Ryder cup points. Those are also up for grabs here this week. The US Team will be finalized in mid August and the European team will be finalized later that same month. But in order to make a move up the leaderboard and pick up those valuable points, players will have to successfully navigate this week's venue here for the 3M Open, and that is TPC Twin Cities. I had a chance to speak with the course superintendent yesterday who told me they have received a lot of rain here in the area recently. He said the course is a little bit softer than they would like it to be. The rough a little bit thicker than it has been in past years for this tournament. But for players who can keep it in the short grass. There should be plenty of birdie opportunities as all that rain has made for some some soft greens, which is going to allow some players to be able to attack those pins. So expect some low scoring here this weekend. Now, the player who was best able to navigate TPC Twin Cities last year was Jonathan Vegas. He won here for his first victory in nearly seven years on the PGA Tour. He has two top 10 so far this season, including the season opener at the Century and a tie for fifth at the PGA Championship.

[Bryn Talkington]

We will look forward to all of that. Amy Rogers in Blaine, Minnesota, thank you so much. And by the way, you can follow Golf Channel's coverage of the 3M Open beginning tomorrow with round one 4pm Eastern Time. Coming up next, we do the setup. We're doing the setup. ServiceNow, that's on earnings in the next 24 hours. By the way, ServiceNow is today after the bell down roughly 10% this year, 20% from its January high. Joe, you on that name in the.

[Steve Weiss]

Jyoti get a glimpse into IT spending. Going to see if we're past the concerns related to doge cuts and tariffs. Bill McDermott does an excellent job managing margins. Let's see if margins can remain strong here. That would put him in a position to begin a little bit of a rebound. I will say one thing, though, S and P SAP the earnings and the reaction to that, not good at all.

[Bryn Talkington]

All right. United Rentals, that's after the Bell. Jenny on that, too.

[Scott Wapner]

You know, it's funny, it's almost the exact same as what Joe just said about ServiceNow, which is on the call. We're going to be listening to see if any of the cuts from D.C. or the tariffs have actually had an impact on the construction market. So that's what we're listening to with respect to the actual earnings. They usually they usually are pretty guide pretty low and then beat. So we expect that again.

[Bryn Talkington]

Okay. We expect to do final trades after this break, track this market right into earnings from Alphabet and Tesla. Today on closing bell, we've got Lauren Goodwin, we have Dan Ives, we have Jason Snipe and we just added the professor Jeremy Siegel to the Wharton School. So I hope you'll join me then. Bryn, what is Your final trade?

[Jenny Harrington]

AbbVie. I like the stock technically going into earnings at the end of the month. I think we'd see a breakout after earnings July 31st.

[Steve Weiss]

All right.

[Bryn Talkington]

Weiss is a heck of a coming back present but I'll take it. Yeah, I was times you have no choice.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

You don't. Hey, neither do I. Uber Look, I've been thinking about buying this for a while, getting back into it, and I'm still considering. I think they will have a good quarter. So I'll let you know if I do buy it on a timely basis this time.

[Bryn Talkington]

Okay, good. That'd be helpful. Yeah, that would be helpful. Jenny.

[Scott Wapner]

Western Union if you look at the steadiness of the earnings and the dividends and can tune out the political noise, it's like owning a bond with an 11% yield.

[Steve Weiss]

Joe T. Live Nation appears to be breaking out ahead of earnings.

[Bryn Talkington]

All right. Stock of about 1%. Thank you. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

[Joe Terranova]

All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal, their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, Internet or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer, please visit cnbc.comhalftimereportdisclaimer.

[Steve Weiss]

Squawk box tomorrow Former NFL quarterback turned businessman Eli Manning, the two time Super bowl champion, discusses his latest investment stay ahead of the market. Squawk Box tomorrow 6aM Eastern and streaming on CNBC Plus.