Halftime Report: A Critical Stretch for Your Money (July 23, 2025)

Hosted by Scott Wapner and featuring CNBC’s top investors, including Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Steve Weiss, and Bryn Talkington, this episode delves into the current market dynamics amid a record-setting rally and the impending mega cap earnings season.

1. Market Overview and Rally Dynamics

Scott Wapner opened the discussion by highlighting the robust performance of the stock market, noting, “dow up near 1%. There's the S and P getting a lift” ([02:28]). The conversation set the stage for examining what fuels this rally and what might sustain it in the coming weeks.

2. Mega Cap Earnings and Market Implications

As mega cap earnings season approached, the panel debated its potential impact on the ongoing market rally.

• Steve Weiss emphasized the importance of mega cap earnings, stating, “They're going to be critically important because what you want to pay attention to is the reaction” ([02:55]). He underscored that investor reactions to earnings reports would indicate whether the rally has momentum or is showing signs of exhaustion.

• Bryn Talkington observed, “Not a lot of exhaustion. It doesn't look like, not anywhere, anywhere” ([03:09]), suggesting that the rally remains strong despite high valuations.

3. Alphabet's Performance and AI Integration

A significant portion of the discussion centered around Alphabet (Google) and its integration of artificial intelligence.

• Jenny Harrington presented a nuanced view, stating, “The biggest question for Alphabet is whether its artificial intelligence push will cannibalize its highly lucrative search business” ([09:05]). She highlighted the balance Alphabet must maintain between AI innovation and sustaining its core revenue streams.

• Scott Wapner added depth by discussing Gartner’s forecast, “Gartner is forecasting a 25% drop in 2026 in single search engine queries” ([06:30]), raising concerns about Alphabet’s long-term earnings potential.

4. US-EU Tariff Deal Update

The panel addressed the potential resolution of US and EU tariff disputes, which had been a source of market uncertainty.

• Joe Terranova reported, “The FTSE is citing three people familiar with the discussion saying that the US and EU are closing in on a deal that would lead to 15% tariffs on all imports coming in from the European Union” ([10:31]). This proposed deal was seen as a positive step from the previously threatened 25-30% tariffs.

• Mackenzie Segalos cautioned about the timeline, noting, “These deals are very, very complicated... Here we're trying to do what's ever done typically takes multiple years” ([13:38]).

5. Market Rotation and the Russell Index

The performance of the Russell Index was scrutinized as a barometer for potential market rotation.

• Steve Weiss highlighted, “Russell's up 4% so far, month to date” ([12:10]), indicating strength in areas like materials, real estate, utilities, and industrials.

• Mackenzie Segalos provided realism, stating, “These deals are very, very complicated... Regardless of the result, it removes the uncertainty” ([14:02]).

6. Stock Highlights and Investment Insights

a. Berkshire Hathaway

• Bryn Talkington observed, “Berkshire Hathaway shares have underperformed since Warren Buffett's retirement announcement in May... down 11% since then” ([35:07]).

• Steve Weiss analyzed the decline, explaining, “...insurers have experienced catastrophic losses, impacting the portfolio overall” ([36:54]).

• Scott Wapner concluded, “I see this just as the Buffett premium fading and it's multiple contraction” ([38:16]).

b. Alphabet (GOOGL)

• Jenny Harrington forecasted growth, “Expectations are for 11 and 16% revenue and earnings growth” ([07:31]).

• Scott Wapner expressed caution about AI monetization, “I don't think their ability to actually monetize their AI has been clear” ([06:30]).

c. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX)

• Jenny Harrington discussed the stock hitting a new 52-week low, yet she remains bullish, saying, “I'd be selling calls here” ([32:28]).

• Scott Wapner countered with a fundamental perspective, “If copper stays above $5, they produce $9 billion of free cash flow” ([32:57]).

d. Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) & Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

• Steve Weiss highlighted Thermo Fisher’s political uncertainties as a deterrent to increasing holdings, “[...] too much ambiguity for us to want to increase thermo” ([30:14]).

• Intuitive Surgical faced challenges with declining procedure growth, “In 2023, we're talking about greater than 20%... this quarter, about 15%” ([31:19]).

7. PGA Tour Coverage

Shifting gears, the podcast included a segment on the PGA Tour’s 3M Open, discussing its significance for players vying for FedEx Cup points and Ryder Cup qualification.

• Joe Terranova detailed the competitive landscape: “Players will have to successfully navigate this week's venue here for the 3M Open” ([42:24]).

• Amy Rodgers provided insights on course conditions, anticipating “low scoring this weekend” ([40:51]).

8. Upcoming Earnings and Market Expectations

Anticipation was high for upcoming earnings reports, particularly from technology and construction sectors.

• Scott Wapner and Joe Terranova signaled cautious optimism, expecting some companies to beat earnings despite challenges posed by tariffs and economic uncertainty.

• Jenny Harrington advocated for a broad market participation strategy, emphasizing sectors outside the Mega Cap 7 (Mag 7) to capitalize on robust economic stimulus and clarity from recent trade deals.

9. Headlines and News Bits

The episode concluded with brief news updates, including:

• State Department investigation into Harvard’s visa program.
• Protests in Kyiv over anti-corruption agency autonomy.
• Health Secretary’s approval to remove thimerosal from flu shots.

10. Closing Trades and Final Insights

Before wrapping up, the panelists shared their final trades and investment considerations:

• Jenny Harrington recommended AbbVie (ABBV), anticipating a breakout post-earnings.
• Scott Wapner favored Western Union (WU) for its steady earnings and dividends, likening it to “owning a bond with an 11% yield” ([44:34]).
• Steve Weiss pointed to Live Nation as a potential breakout candidate ahead of its earnings report.

Scott Wapner summed up the overall sentiment, “I'm significantly more positive on those areas right now” ([18:35]), reflecting a balanced outlook amidst a complex market environment.

Notable Quotes:

• Steve Weiss ([02:55]): “What you want to pay attention to is the reaction. Do we get a continuation of a lot of good news and good price action or do we finally signal that there's exhaustion in the market?”

• Jenny Harrington ([09:05]): “The biggest question for Alphabet is whether its artificial intelligence push will cannibalize its highly lucrative search business.”

• Scott Wapner ([38:16]): “I see this just as the Buffett premium fading and it's multiple contraction.”

• Jenny Harrington ([07:31]): “Expectations are for 11 and 16% revenue and earnings growth.”

Conclusion:

The episode underscored the critical nature of the upcoming earnings season and its potential to either bolster the current market rally or introduce signs of fatigue. With mega cap companies at the forefront, the panel emphasized the importance of monitoring investor reactions and the broader economic indicators influenced by recent trade agreements. Additionally, diversification beyond the Mag 7 was advocated to navigate the evolving market landscape effectively.