AI Anxiety and Cut Concerns Hit Stocks 11/14/25

Summary

CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: AI Anxiety and Cut Concerns Hit Stocks
Date: November 14, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Stephanie Link, Malcolm Etheridge, Brian Belsky, Steve Liesman (Economics Correspondent), Mackenzie Segalos (Crypto), Mike Santoli (Market Commentator)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on "market anxiety" stemming from major AI-led tech selloffs, debates over whether AI is in a bubble, and the shifting prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Host Scott Wapner and the investment committee analyze reasons behind recent market volatility—including spending and valuations in AI, debt concerns (notably Oracle and Meta), and rate cut uncertainty—while also zooming in on crypto turbulence and upcoming retail earnings. The tone is energetic and, at times, sharply opinionated, with a clear focus on actionable investment strategies.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. AI Spending, Valuations, and 'Anxiety': Is This a Bubble?

[01:01–13:42]

• Scott Wapner sets the stage: The markets have been volatile, with the Dow red but Nasdaq and S&P up. Two big issues loom: "anxiety" over AI spending/debt and doubts about a December rate cut.
  • Notable recent worries:
    • Meta's heavy spending post-earnings
    • Oracle giving up all its earning gains (debt worries)
    • OpenAI's CFO "backstop" comments
    • Michael Burry winding up his hedge fund
  • "What do I do with all of that as I think about where we are in the market…?" — Scott Wapner [02:48]

Stephanie Link’s Bullish Take

• "I think it's totally overblown. You know, I've been buying, adding on weakness...We're in the early innings in AI. You're going to have volatility though." [03:10]
• Notes massive Capex across tech ($400B this year by MAG7), industrials ($200B), and utilities ($250B), describing enduring themes in power infrastructure.
• Cites stellar earnings/revenue growth across tech leaders (Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom), framing pullbacks as buying opportunities.
• "I added to Meta and I added to Microsoft." [04:55]
• On Meta: Down 19% in two weeks, but growing earnings 20%, revenue 26%; big buyback.
• On Microsoft: "I haven't owned Microsoft in a long time...their growth is exciting, so I'm looking for opportunity." [07:04]

Is AI a Bubble? The Committee Debates

• Mary Erdoes (JP Morgan Asset Management, via clip): "AI itself is not a bubble. That’s a crazy concept. That’s like saying ‘are computers a bubble?’" [05:38]
• Brian Belsky: Strongly agrees, citing lack of speculative hallmarks (i.e., crazy M&A, IPO frenzies) from the dot-com bubble era. "I think it’s bunk… I think we’re in the second or third inning of this whole AI thing." [11:19]
• "It’s a stock-picker’s type market in that area." [11:57]
• Volatility called "very, very healthy" and a necessary check on over-bullish sentiment. "These bears have done their job and shook things up a little bit and afford an opportunity for Steph to swoop in." [13:20]

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2. Meta’s Spending and Monetization

[07:51–09:39]

• Malcolm Etheridge challenges Meta optimism: "How much advertising can I create that Meta can sell that justifies the spend in the next two to three years?" [07:51]
• Stephanie counters: Massive install base, early signs of monetization via ad price and impressions. Admits she doesn’t like the excess spending, but expects ROI over time.
  • "They are starting to monetize it, which is why I talked about the price per ad up 10%. They are monetizing it." — Stephanie Link [08:32]

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3. Oracle, Stock Rotations, and ‘Healthy’ Corrections

[13:42–17:24]

• Scott Wapner: Notes big selloffs in recent winner names (Palantir, Broadcom, Vistra, Reddit, Oracle) and highlights Oracle's parabolic move/collapse.
• Brian Belsky: Sees Oracle’s correction as "very, very healthy," discourages chasing earnings pops. Stays put due to already large position.
• Malcolm Etheridge: Sold half his Oracle at the peak; now looking to buy back at lower levels. "The market got way too euphoric… Now is the place where a rational investor should be looking..." [16:38]

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4. Rate Cut Prospects and the Fed’s Influence

[17:24–24:26]

• Wapner pivots to shifting rate cut expectations—no longer a lock for December; yields have risen sharply.
• Steve Liesman (CNBC Economics): Rate cut probability for December falls to 41%—lowest since September. "Powell doesn’t have the votes now for a cut." [18:13]
• Market has been "over its skis," didn't listen to the Fed’s skepticism as inflation stuck at ~3%, labor market still strong.
• Stephanie Link: "GDP is running at three and a half to four percent and that's probably one of the reasons why you’re seeing above-trend inflation to begin with." [23:15]
• Brian Belsky: Biotech surge and financials’ strength suggest market is not wholly dependent on cuts; commercial lending poised for a comeback. "A lot of these biotechs have amazing balance sheets…financials win by that [GDP]." [24:26]

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5. Crypto Breakdown: Bitcoin and Exchanges (Coinbase)

[27:50–32:24]

• Mackenzie Segalos:
  • Bitcoin hits lowest since May, down 24% from record highs, suffering fifth negative week in six.
  • Over $1.3B in leveraged crypto wiped out in 24 hours; spot ETF flows flip negative, outflows highest since their launch.
  • Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy reportedly cut holdings (disputed by Saylor); other proxy bets hammered.
  • "With momentum rolling over, technical sellers stepping in, and then the pro-crypto regulatory tailwind fading, this is still a real departure from November norms." [28:10]
• Bitcoin’s increased volatility linked to flows moving from spot ETFs to levered/proxy trades; thinning liquidity.
• Stephanie Link on Coinbase: Small (2%) position, sees exchange business benefiting from any volatility, not just higher prices. "All I need is a buyer and a seller." Would add on weakness but keep position right-sized. [31:00, 31:57]

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6. Stock Calls: Disney, Progressive, Industrials

[35:00–38:32]

• Disney: Target cut to $152; Belsky shrinks position, says operational performance under Iger disappointing. "We've whittled it down to only one portfolio in the value portfolio." [36:22]
• Progressive (PGR): Downgraded, but Belsky remains confident—good market share, strong product.
• Waste Management: Long-term holding, but position may be reduced in favor of more cyclical industrial names (Parker-Hannifin, Caterpillar, Deere, Honeywell).
• Rockwell Automation/Capex: Stephanie Link highlights Rockwell’s new CFO and operating leverage; both Link and Belsky note that industrials are set for another Capex-driven phase (automation, robotics).

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7. Market Sentiment and Broader Outlook

[38:53–41:01]

• Mike Santoli’s "Midday Word":

  • "It’s the third 3 to 4% pullback in the S&P 500 in the last five weeks."
  • Action reflects "draining some of the excess oil from the high beta, high momentum, overcrowded stuff in the market."
  • Little evidence of panic despite unease about the economy—a "reality check," not a crisis.
  • Earnings have generally been positive; strong year-end seasonality in play.

• Scott Wapner: Reiterates Fed’s role is important, but not the sole prop for the rally; would help but not necessary. "It would be the cherry on top of what is an already tasty looking Sunday." [40:05]

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8. Retail Earnings Preview

[41:01–45:16]

• Big Week Ahead: Retailers reporting include Home Depot, Target, TJX, Lowe’s, Walmart, Ross, Gap, Bath & Body, BJ’s.
• Belsky:
  • Walmart praised, doesn’t expect transition to new CEO to be disruptive.
  • Target held only in value portfolio—waiting multiple quarters for a measurable turn.
  • TJX called the star; Ross more defensive.
• Malcolm Etheridge: Prefers B2B over retail at this stage, "B2B over B2C right now."
• Stephanie Link: Likes housing and auto stocks more than retailers; sees potential in Active, regrets selling Deckers and Gap. On Target: too risky, small position, would likely sell after any big move; more interested in Gap and Deckers as turnaround stories.

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9. Final Trades & Closing Thoughts

[45:46–46:06]

• Brian Belsky: Raymond James Financial — "one of the last standalone brokerage firms…wonderful shop."
• Malcolm Etheridge: Zscaler — expects strong earnings despite recent drop.
• Stephanie Link: Palo Alto Networks; bullish on the exchanges.

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Notable Quotes and Moments

• "AI itself is not a bubble. That's a crazy concept. That's like saying are computers a bubble." — Mary Erdoes [05:38]
• "I think it's totally overblown... we're in the early innings in AI." — Stephanie Link [03:10]
• "We're not seeing these massive M&A deals in frivolous, seeing a lot of debt deals... That was the essence of 99, 2000. We're not seeing that." — Brian Belsky [10:23]
• "When you think they're not coming in, that's when they're coming in. This is called a correction. And this is very, very healthy." — Brian Belsky [13:08]
• "Powell doesn't have the votes now for a cut? I don't think he does. I reported this a couple days ago… when you look at the sum total of what people are saying, the votes are not there." — Steve Liesman [18:13]
• "Bitcoin has now erased all its gains since President Trump's inauguration as forced liquidations accelerate, volatility spikes and risk appetite fades..." — Mackenzie Segalos [28:10]
• "All I need is a buyer and a seller. So I don't necessarily need the price to be so much higher or it could be lower and this company can still be profitable." — Stephanie Link on Coinbase [31:02]
• "It's the third 3 to 4% pullback in the S&P 500 in the last five weeks... most of the action still qualifies as draining some of the excess oil from the high beta, high momentum, overcrowded stuff." — Mike Santoli [38:53]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• AI Market Anxiety & Bubble Debate: 01:01–13:42
• Meta Spending/Advertising Debate: 07:51–09:39
• Oracle & Rotation/Corrections: 13:42–17:24
• Rate Cut Odds & Fed Impact: 17:24–24:26
• Crypto/Bitcoin Volatility: 27:50–32:24
• Disney & Stock Calls: 35:00–38:32
• Market Outlook w/ Santoli: 38:53–41:01
• Retail Earnings Preview: 41:01–45:16
• Final Trades: 45:46–46:06

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Overall Tone & Structure

• Fast-paced, lively, at moments combative but always expert.
• Strong emphasis on real-time actionable strategies and "buying the dip" amid volatility.
• Panelists challenge each other's convictions while consistently returning to fundamentals, earnings trends, and macro data.

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Summary designed for listeners who missed the episode: This edition of Halftime Report is a deep dive into whether the AI-driven bull market is overblown, how to play tech pullbacks, what to expect on the Fed/rate cut front, how crypto contagion is impacting markets, and where the next retail winners might come from. The consensus: volatility in leaders like Meta, Oracle, and Bitcoin is healthy—not the harbinger of a bubble—while a selective, fundamentals-first approach remains crucial. The market is repricing expectations, but underlying growth and spending trends in both tech and industrials are robust, and there’s plenty of room for smart stock pickers to thrive.

Transcript

[Edward Jones Narrator]

A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones, Member, SIPC hey there, it's.

[Dr. Sanjay Gupta]

Dr. Sanjay Gupta with some exciting news to share. CNN is now streaming. That means you can read, watch and stream everything in one subscription. You can watch news live 24.

[Stephanie Link]

7.

[Dr. Sanjay Gupta]

You can also explore catch up videos and explainer videos. And you can also watch the library of CNN's originals, including my latest documentary, it doesn't have to hurt, just go to CNN.com AllAccess.

[Scott Wapner]

I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thank you very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wagner. Front and center this hour, high anxiety in the markets, the trade extending its sell off. Today we will discuss and debate that and much more with the investment committee. As always, joining me for the hour, Stephanie Link, Malcolm Etheridge and Brian Belsky. Let's go check the markets today. We are red on the Dow S and P and the Nasdaq though, are green. And that is good to see because it has been, as you know, a very volatile trade within the nasdaq. We have really two issues at hand, which I think you probably all know of by now. Anxiety, that's a critical issue. Spending, valuations, debt raises. And then you also have a rate cut. Rollback is what we're calling it. Real doubts now about whether the Fed is going to cut rates again in December. What was a formality almost has backed off, that rates have been up. And those are the issues that we are facing. Steph, we'll start, though, with anxiety because I do think the market has a case of that. It really started with Metta, Metta spending related to their earnings report on October 29th. Oracle's debt concerns have sort of become more acute. That stock has given everything back from its big earnings bump and then some. You had Sarah Fryer of OpenAI, the CFO, make those backstop comments which said everybody sort of sat back and said, oh, that, well, that's interesting. Why are we talking about that kind of stuff? And then Michael Burry, who has been posting on Social media almost every day for the last week. Finally winding that up yesterday with his hedge fund being deregistered. That lays it out for you. What do I do with all of that? As I think about where we are in the market and what seemed like a pretty good Runway between now and the end of the year, I don't think it's over.

[Stephanie Link]

I think it's totally overblown. You know, I've been buying, adding on weakness first and foremost. We're in the early innings in AI. You're going to have volatility though. These stocks have all had enormous runs. So it's totally normal to see volatility and to see pullbacks. Remember Deep Seek back in February. That was a buying opportunity of a lifetime. So we're going to get these things, these cautious commentary. I get it. The capex is actually not just in the technology space, Scott, it's in the industrial space. Listen to Dave Cody today, two hours ago on CNBC at Vertif talking about how they cannot meet demand and they have to spend. So you have technology companies spending 400 billion this year, the MAG7, you have the industrial companies that are going to be spending about 200 billion. Utility companies to upgrade the grid, they're going to be spending about 250 billion this year and then some next year. And of course power, we're so undersupplied in power. That is two decade long theme because it takes a really long time to actually get power. So there's that. But then as a technology investor, I want to see companies invest to grow profitably. So Amazon grew earnings 36% in their last quarter. Revenues up 13%. Meta Grid, their earnings 20%. Revenues up 26%. Microsoft grew earnings 12%. Revenues up 18% percent go to Nvidia. I don't own it, but they grew earnings 54% and total revenues of 55%. And the one I do own in the semiconductor world is Broadcom, up 36% in earnings and up 22% in total revenues. To me, when you see companies that are making money and they're pulling back and they're trading at a lot more healthier multiples, they're still rich, but I see that growth and that tailwind. I want to be buying and that's what I've been doing. I added to Meta and I added to Microsoft.

[Scott Wapner]

Oh, Steph, let me get there, let me get there. That was like a whole dissertation that ends well.

[Stephanie Link]

It's exciting.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, it is exciting. You know what, let's take the Plan.

[Stephanie Link]

All right, go for it and throw.

[Scott Wapner]

The plan in the can and we'll just go there now. So you bought more Meta in Microsoft?

[Stephanie Link]

Yes.

[Scott Wapner]

We had this little event called Delivering Alpha yesterday that we've had for, like, 14 years. Okay. Mary Erdos was there, JP Morgan. She runs asset management and wealth management. She's the CEO. She was asked a question by Leslie Picker about a bubble. It's going to lead me to you. And here's what she had to say about where we are.

[Stephanie Link]

AI itself is not a bubble. That's a crazy concept. That's like saying our computers. A bubble. Like, we are on the precipice of a major, major revolution in the way that companies operate. Efficiencies are found and reaching your client in a whole different paradigm. The valuations of certain companies are reflecting what they think.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

You know, what the markets think are.

[Stephanie Link]

Going to be the winners and the losers.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. That was my biggest takeaway immediately when Mary said that on the stage yesterday. This is not a bubble, Dan. I've says it's a buying opportunity, not the time to head for the elevators. You obviously agree because as you said, you bought more Meta and Microsoft. Now please tell us more, Steph.

[Stephanie Link]

Well, I just look at Meta and it's down 19% in two weeks. And it's trading at 19 times forward estimates, and I think those estimates are too low. The historical average is about 21 times. As I just mentioned, they're growing earnings 20% and revenue is 26%. Their impression growth was up 14% in the quarter. So AI is working on the advertising business. Time spent up 5% and in videos up 30% and price per ad up 10%. So to me, oh, by the way, a $31 billion buyback. So to me, I think there's real value there. The stock is only up 5% in the past year, and they're at the forefront in terms of AI and in advertising, especially Microsoft. I haven't owned Microsoft in a long time.

[Scott Wapner]

This is a new buy for you.

[Stephanie Link]

It is.

[Scott Wapner]

So.

[Stephanie Link]

So, you know, it's down 6% from its high, so it's not crazy. But they beat in all three of their divisions. Commercial bookings up 111% and RPOs up 51%. That's great visibility. So it's not cheap. I get it at 29 times forward estimates, but for so long, Scott, it was trading at like 35 times, and I couldn't get my arms around it. When I see this kind of growth, I think that's exciting and so I'm looking for opportunity. By the way, I'm still underweight relative to my benchmark in Microsoft, so I'm just going to continue to add on these real ugly days, especially since they also have a $45 billion buyback.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. All right. All right, we got done now for.

[Stephanie Link]

The A block, right?

[Scott Wapner]

Well, you do the whole A block.

[Stephanie Link]

I'm there. Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

Six minutes, ladies and gentlemen, after this, when we come back. No, I'm just kidding. Malcolm, what do you got?

[Malcolm Etheridge]

I'm just curious. As a person who doesn't own Meta, I have no interest in owning it for the long term. When I hear you talk about the buying opportunity in Meta because of the investments that they are making, I share the concerns of the market, which are to what end? Right, so all the other companies that you've named, there's obviously a path to profitability while we're waiting on that big payoff. Right. So you talk about the cloud services that are able to. They sell cloud credits and they generate tens of billion, tens of billions of dollars in revenue on the way there. How much advertising can I create that Metta can sell that justifies the spend in the next two to three years? Because that's the bet that the market is making sort of against that name. Right now.

[Stephanie Link]

The install base is huge. 60% of people around the globe are using some sort of form of Meta products. And I think that they. Without AI, though, without yet. Look at, look at what? They are starting to monetize it, which is why I talked about the price per ad of up 10%. They are monetizing it. And the last time they went on the spending spree, by the way, Malcolm, I don't like that they're spending a ton. I was not happy when I saw that number. However, I like that they are going to see the return on investments over time. They did this when they did the whole Metaverse nightmare, right? And they overspent. Then they got religion and then they actually saw the benefits of their investments elsewhere. So I think it's on sale.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

So I agree with the premise that for Amazon and Metta specifically, AI is going to improve their ability to target ads to the perfect right person at the perfect right time. I just am concerned that 70, 80, $90 billion a year in investment to no end is where it's reasonable for shareholders to say, you know, wait a.

[Scott Wapner]

Minute, no, but they are right. That's part of the point of why we are where we are. In this increased volatility, meta is 23% off its 52 week high. To some it's a sign of caution, to some it's a sign of opportunity. That's what makes a market. That's the whole point of what we're trying to do here is have a debate and then leave it out there for you to decide what to do. Mary Erdos, no bubble. Do you agree?

[Brian Belsky]

I do agree. Thanks. Good to be here on the Q block by the way. So I want to go over.

[Scott Wapner]

It's already Monday but go ahead.

[Brian Belsky]

It is Monday. Let's talk about AI first and then I really want to.

[Scott Wapner]

Do you think it's a bubble?

[Brian Belsky]

No, no. Where near a bubble. Here's why. Two facts. Number one, the man's not making money. Who's the man? Investment banks and bankers. We're not seeing these massive M and A deals in frivolous, seeing a lot of debt deals. I'm talking companies buying other companies with stock. That was the essence of 99, 2000 and you had lots of IPOs and lots of secondaries. We're not seeing that.

[Edward Jones Narrator]

Right.

[Scott Wapner]

And those were. We're talking about two completely different phenomenons at different times. You're talking about nascent stage, no revenue, no earning, E commerce minuscule companies that the market placed massive bets on of getting to some promised land in the future. We're talking about trillion dollar companies today trying to make a comparison between the two. I know, I think it's tough.

[Brian Belsky]

That's why, why I have been making a living here the last couple of the last six months with everyone trying to compare the current valuation and price performance of tech stocks like 99, 2000. I think it's bunk and I don't think, I think we're in the second or third inning of this whole AI thing. That's number one number. Number two in terms of how these companies are trading there's so much differentiation. The standard deviation environment in terms of price performance and fundamentals is all over the place. They're not aligned and that's really a stock pickers type market in that area. The other thing I want to talk about is we glossed over it too quickly is the whole Capex thing. Why is Capex so important on a sectoral basis? Scotty, look at sectors in the S&P 500. The majority of sectors in the S&P 500 are at or near all time lows in terms of debt to equity. In terms of price to free cash flow, they're at all time highs. They've got cash to be put to work. And Stephanie spot on, on the industrial, it's not just about tech. It's industrials, it's energy, it's utilities. There's going to be massive, massive reinvestment there over the next three to five years. And I think that's what's also ultimately, on a fundamental basis, going to lead us into more broadening out in general.

[Scott Wapner]

So you don't think that what's been happening in these names is anything more than just a typical rotation out of big time winners into some areas of the market? I had suspected anyway, and you know, I think I said as much in some of the conversations that we had around delivering Alpha yesterday that I didn't think that the market or investors would let these kinds of stocks fall that far. They're going to come in at some point, probably soon, and say enough is enough. And maybe today is representative in many ways of that.

[Brian Belsky]

When you think they're not coming in, that's when they're coming in. And this is called a correction. And this is very, very healthy. I was worried a couple of weeks ago. We had too many bulls. Everybody was way too, way too bullish. Now we've had the bears come out and that's fantastic news as far as I'm concerned. You don't want everybody on the same page. And so these bears have done their job and shook things up a little bit and afford an opportunity for Steph to swoop in and talk about Microsoft and for Malcolm. Maybe I share Malcolm's discontent with Meta. I'm not going to buy that, but you nailed it, man. This is what makes a market and the market is acting the way it should.

[Scott Wapner]

You had a lot of air coming out of the momentum trade. The MTUM ETF had its worst day since October 10th. This is yesterday. Of course we are on track now, though. Why we bring it up today, looking forward rather than back. We're on track for the third straight down week. Okay, coming into today, rocket lab down 26%. Axon down 23. We mentioned Oracle and what's been happening there. Robinhood's down 14. Brian Palantir has had its worst month since December of 2023. Very popular name among people I know who watch this program. Broadcom down seven and a half percent month to date. That's the worst month since March. Okay. Vistra down 6%. I get the hype and the reality of powering AI. Vistra's worst month since August. You have Vistra, you got Reddit, you got Palantir. I know you have Oracle, but what about those kinds of stocks?

[Brian Belsky]

Vistra is one of those stocks that was up on stilts, clearly, so was Reddit. You know, the reason why we own Reddit is it's a longer term alternative to some other media sides of things. So I think that obviously you had a lot of people chasing that. Palantir is the one that is interesting because obviously with its connectivity and how important it is to the whole AI cycle, it really stands apart relative to all the other stocks. And clearly, clearly it's expensive and it has come back down to reality. Oracle is the one that they have this war chest of cash. Traditionally, this is a company that has done an amazing job on their balance sheet. What they're doing in the marketplace in terms of the credit, it is a little bit worrisome, but at the end of the day, this is a longer term core position with us. And the stock went up on stilts and it's kind of come back down to reality.

[Scott Wapner]

It's this. Leave this chart up, please. Yep. Because this is what I referenced at the very top of the program. Right. The euphoria around their earnings report and their, their outlook lifts the stock. It goes parabolic in September and then it gives it all back and then some in November. Is it a warning sign of what else might be out there? If you're sitting in Oracle and you felt great on that day of the massive bump and you feel like garbage today because it's given it all back now what, what do you do?

[Brian Belsky]

Well, I think that's really healthy. When he sees a stock like that pull back and oh, by the way, we've always advised investors, you're not going to be chasing earnings reports anyway. And everyone was really excited about AI, so they came out with great numbers and they chased the stock up. So this actually is very, very healthy. Why aren't you buying, why aren't you.

[Scott Wapner]

Buying more if it's a core long term position as you just described?

[Brian Belsky]

Because we have a very big position already and what we do in our portfolio is that we rebalance quarterly. So I think we feel very, very comfortable with our positions in that.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

Could I, could I jump in there real quick? Because this is actually where I want to buy Oracle back. I'm sitting here with you, so obviously I can at the moment, but.

[Scott Wapner]

Oh, you can do that.

[Brian Belsky]

He's got a phone.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's go right here.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

But I was literally on the desk making the call a month ago, maybe in October, when I said from 230 up to about 340, the stock basically ran up on all of the News that got stuffed out there from its earnings period and the market reacted in a major way. So all the way back down to 230 is why I sold half of our position in it. And I'll be looking to buy it back now at that same level because all the good stuff about Oracle and the relationships that it's created with OpenAI and others, its relationship to the Stargate project and everything else that still exists, it's just that the market got way too euphoric to use your word for us to invest in it at that 340 level. And I think now is the place where a rational investor should be looking at this and saying, okay, I think this is a place to buy this thing.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay, so the other issue, let's pivot to the other major issue that we've been dealing with this week and that is a move higher in yields. If you look at a 10 year, 10 years, like 413. Right. We're below 4 now, we're back moving higher now we're at 414. Why? Because there are doubts about December. Steve Liesman, our senior economics correspondent, joins us now. It is remarkable how we went from 100% because I remember the day we had the conversation and you showed October 100, December 100 and then 60 some odd for the next one into 2026. October 17, we are at 100% for December. We got way over our skis, obviously. Right?

[Steve Liesman]

Yeah. Scott, I just don't want you to hold me responsible for the data from the market that I present. It's not my data, it's the market data. So. But let me just tell you right now, Scott, the reason I was looking down on my computer when you're talking to me is we have now hit a new low probability for this December contract at 41%. And I was just checking when the last time it was that low. And you'd have to go back to September, but. But this is a new low and it's ratcheted higher or the probability the yield itself is ratcheted higher. The probability ratcheting lower for that December rate cut. You're looking there, by the way, that's October 17th. Right now, the current just changed in the past couple of minutes, which is why I was double checking that it's at 47 was earlier this morning in the wake of Jeff Schmidt's comments this morning. Pardon me, and the move higher in yields on the 10 year, that tends to push down that probability. And so look, Scott Powell doesn't have the votes now for A cut? I don't think he does. I reported this a couple days ago on Fast Money, and it looks like the market now understands this, that when you look at the sum total of what people are saying, the votes are not there at the moment for a rate cut in December.

[Scott Wapner]

He said it himself, basically. I mean, he tried to speak directly to the market in a way, and I think I said this to you, and we discussed it the very day of the Fed decision and the news conference that he spoke so frankly to and directly to the market that you're over your skis. December is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it. The market got the message.

[Steve Liesman]

I mean, I was trying to point out the market was over its skis going into the October meeting with its bet on December. I mean, I guess that's water under the bridge at this point. But the market has not been listening to what the Fed has been saying, and I'll give you an example of that. The September forecast came out and it said the median was 3%. Well, great. But you look at the numbers, and there were 10 guys for three or 10 folks for three and nine for two or the other for two or less. So the market hears this median amidst the froth of all the trade. The market says, oh, we're getting to get a rate cut. We got high stocks and we're going to have a great economy. And we got the rate cut, too. So I just don't think they're listening to the Fed's growing concern here about the inflation numbers remaining stuck at 3% and not seeing any sort of clear sign or evidence, Scott, of weakness in the labor market that's animating their ideas about policy.

[Scott Wapner]

Well, because most of what they're thinking about remains anecdotal because the government shut down, they couldn't get actual data. And we may never know where we currently stand. Based on the rhetoric out of the administration regarding the most recent data, we just may never see it. Which means the Fed may never know it. Yeah, which means we'll have to just push down the Runway of when they can make a more thoughtful decision based on actual numbers.

[Steve Liesman]

Yeah, I mean, it's not. It's not all that bad. October will now and forever more likely be a data black hole. But we'll get the November. We get the November data in December will probably see that September data. I think they have that report ready. We've had a bunch of alternative data, some of which shows weakness. But the jobless claims data, which is pretty good, that we have been Getting during the shutdown has, has been pretty steady. So I will note, Scott, in this extended a block that Stephanie clearly dominated. You were joking about. Yeah, I got to listen to all of it and I enjoyed all of that of it. But I did not hear the fed funds come up a single time. So when you guys were talking about what may or may not be bothering AI and the tech stocks, I would just like to point out my observation. It wasn't the Fed. Whatever is going on with their. Maybe the Fed would help but, but it doesn't seem like Federal Reserve interest rates are something that's troubling. The thing that looks like it's most troubling the stock market right now.

[Scott Wapner]

I think you very perceptively and accurately point out where we are in the market. It's a cherry on top of what already had looked like a pretty good Sunday. So we're not wholly reliant on it. But we also, you know, there's a limit to where we want to see we as the market and an investing community want to see rates go. And that's why it becomes relevant if you have to dial back your expectations from 100% to 41. So that's why it's brought up. But I appreciate you making that observation because it sets up the next leg of our conversation. Steve, thank you so much. That's Steve Liesman, our senior economics correspondent. Right. It, it's nice. But none of you think we need it of a rate cut. Am I accurately saying that GDP is.

[Stephanie Link]

Running at three and a half to four percent and that's probably one of the reasons why you're seeing above trend inflation to begin with. But I've said it many times that I would much rather have faster growth in the economy and a little bit elevated inflation from an earnings perspective.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's put it this way. If you look at what's working okay and what has been working. Brian.

[Brian Belsky]

Yeah.

[Scott Wapner]

The biotech story has been helped by the expectation of lower rates. Those companies, the smaller ones are more susceptible to the cost of capital. Right. So what's happening today? The ibb, the biotech etf, it's up. It's up one and a half percent. There is a trend that the market believes in behind that sector. It's up as rates are up as rate expect rate cut. Expectations have come down. Financials have been doing quite well. Gold Goldman hit a record high yesterday. Rate expectations come down, financials stay up. There is a trend here in this market that speaks to why Steve Liesman can accurately say we're not wholly dependent on rate cuts. There are too many other things that are working to the market's advantage.

[Brian Belsky]

Right. And part of the reason why too that biotechs have done so well, Scott, is because a lot of these biotechs have amazing balance sheets and have been able to, to build that war chest of cash and they're out of the whole vaccine game. In a lot of the, a lot of the worrisome stuff going on in big pharma that's kind of number one on the financials. You think about what Steph said about I will take a three and a half percent gdp, I will take double digit earnings growth all day long and financials win by that. It's not just about where the stock market is going and what advisors are doing. But think about the commercial banking that is coming on. Not enough people talk about commercial banking is going to be huge. If we talked about in, in the prior a block a little bit about Capex, a lot of these companies are still going to go to the banks and take out loans. We haven't talked about a commercial banking loan cycle for years and no one's talking about that. And I think that's private credit. They went private credit but now, but now look at now what's happening to the private credit.

[Scott Wapner]

Can we also say that the market right now, despite what, what was, you know, an ugly looking day yesterday, we're still on track for a positive week out of the s and P500. Okay, so that puts into perspective what's happened both in the trade and then everything else, financials and health care and what have you to financials. Real quick before we, we take a break. You did take some profits in Wells Fargo, which I think was your largest position.

[Stephanie Link]

It still wasn't it.

[Scott Wapner]

It still is, still is.

[Stephanie Link]

But it ran so much that it got to be a 7% position. And so I just, just took off 2%. Still like it very much. Still think it's the asset cap story, the lift of the asset cap story which will lead to better profitability. And they've already raised guidance. I think they're still lowballing on that front.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, so let's take a break. When we come back, we'll talk about the bitcoin breakdown. Some very interesting moves are happening there. Mackenzie Segalos is going to join us with the very latest. You're not going to want to miss that. Calls of the day, stocks on the move. Santoli, the setup. It's all ahead.

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[Stephanie Link]

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[Dr. Sanjay Gupta]

Book [e-mail] hey there, it's Dr. Sanjay Gupta with some exciting news to share. CNN is now streaming. That means you can read, watch and stream everything in one subscription. You can watch News Live 24.

[Steve Liesman]

7.

[Dr. Sanjay Gupta]

You can also explore catch up videos and explainer videos. And you can also watch the library of CNN's originals, including my latest documentary it doesn't have to hurt. Just go to CNN.com allaccess the heaviest.

[Scott Wapner]

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[Brian Belsky]

All right, welcome back.

[Scott Wapner]

A lot of you are watching Bitcoin. I know that 96,594. It's the lowest level since May, okay, below 95,000 earlier today. That's what it hit. It's down 24% from its record high, its fifth negative week in the past six. What's going on? Mackenzie Segalos is following that money for us has some answers.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

Mackenzie hey Scott. Bitcoin has now erased all of its gains since since President Trump's inauguration as forced liquidations accelerate, volatility spikes and risk appetite fades across the market. More than $1.3 billion in leveraged crypto bets were wiped out in the past 24 hours alone, pushing those funding rates negative and thinning out market depth. Liquidity has dropped sharply and traders are rushing to hedge, driving short term volatility even higher. Meanwhile, a key support for bitcoin, those spot ETFs demand is starting to show signs of strain. Flows flipped negative this week with Thursday marking the second worst day of outflows since they launched nearly two years ago. The stress is also hitting those crypto treasury plays. Arkham intelligence data showing that Michael Saylor's strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, cut its bitcoin holdings by 47,000 coins. Though Saylor refuted that sale on our air earlier today, those shares down around 17% so far this week. Tom Lee's Bit Mine immersion along with Eth Zilla and Sharply Gaming are all sharply lower, exposing pressure in ether proxy trades as well. And Crypto I will say it remains tightly correlated to the Nasdaq and it tracked the indexes drawdown throughout the week. And we have seen bitcoin recover from this morning's lows in tandem with the rebound in tech. But with momentum rolling over, technical sellers stepping in, and then the pro crypto regulatory tailwind fading. This is still a real departure from November norms with digital assets taking an uncharacteristic breather this month.

[Scott Wapner]

Scott, do you, do you have a view or, you know, do the people that you speak to about this on the notion that as, as popularity for crypto treasuries increases, the volatility around bitcoin also increases, or as more money starts going towards crypto treasuries, maybe money comes out of bitcoin as a pure play.

[Mackenzie Segalos]

Precisely. And so much of where we saw bitcoin breaking from moves in the NASDAQ came from this inflow, all these institutional inflows into the spot Bitcoin ETFs. And then this summer you saw this surge in the digital asset trade, those dax. And then that's what's led to more of this volatility as people move from spot trading and from the spot Bitcoin ETFs, which really gave a comfortable floor to the trade, into these more volatile plays where you're seeing these proxy trades for bitcoin, for Ether, for Salon and other altcoins introduce a lot more volatility into the market. And it's also not helping that we're seeing this more, you know, liquid and thinning out of the spot market in general.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, Mac, thank you. Mackenzie Seagallis out at one market in San Francisco, obviously setting it up well for us. So you own Coinbase?

[Stephanie Link]

I do.

[Scott Wapner]

Which has been in this pullback mix to China, down like 17% in a month.

[Stephanie Link]

Sure.

[Scott Wapner]

Concerned about these, this position.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah. I mean, look, it's a very small position. It's about 2% in terms of weighting. It's a. Look, bitcoin crypto is a risk on asset and it trades with technology. So it's not surprising that bitcoin has corrected what I don't, I don't. I can't predict the price of bitcoin or crypto. But what I like about the exchanges is that all I need is a buyer and a seller. So I don't necessarily need the price to be so much higher or it could be lower and this company can still be profitable. I do think deregulation is important tailwind. I do think all of the ETFs that have been started is important and a tailwind. And they are expanding their product offerings and getting more competitive. So and by the way, they had a great quarter and the stock did rally right after I, right after I bought it. Obviously, it's giving it back, but it's one that I would absolutely add to, but I want to keep it kind of right sized.

[Scott Wapner]

Do you think that bitcoin volatility is good for you in this position?

[Stephanie Link]

I do. I do. For any exchange, volatility is pretty good, but it's beyond that. I mean, these guys have size and scale. They have 200 different offerings in crypto alone. And so if you want to go and trade, you're going to go to Coinbase and they've got a great management team and a great strategy in terms of expanding beyond. So again, I would right. Size it. You know, I don't want to, I don't want this thing to be a Wells Fargo size. Okay. I want it to be 2 to 3% and it will be volatile. And I can live with that.

[Steve Liesman]

All right.

[Scott Wapner]

Let's get the headlines now with Dominic Chu Domino.

[Dr. Sanjay Gupta]

All right. Happy Friday here, Scott. JPMorgan Chase, the country's largest bank, is down about 1% so far today. This is after President Trump posted on Truth Social this morning that he is asking the Justice Department to investigate Jeffrey Epstein's alleged ties with the bank and several prominent Democrats, including former President Bill Clinton, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, amongst others. More than 24 million people across California are under flood alerts today as Los Angeles could get a month's worth of rain in a single day. The National Weather Service is warning of dangerous flooding and debris flows, especially in areas burned during the Palisades and Eaton fires earlier this year. Some evacuation orders have been issued in some of those areas. And Redbird Capital, the buyout firm led by Goldman Sachs, Jerry Cardinale, dropping its $660 million bid today for Britain's Daily Telegraph, saying it will work to help secure an alternate solution for the 170 year old newspaper. Redbird says it dropped the bid over concerns about getting regulatory approvals and because of backlash from staff at the conservative newspaper. Scott, I'll send things back over to you.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, Dom, thank you, Don Chu. Coming up next, our calls, the day one firm sees this struggling stock rallying 15%. Belsky owns it, the reveal and the trade.

[Dr. Sanjay Gupta]

Hey there. It's Dr. Sanjay Gupta with some exciting news to share. CNN is now streaming. That means you can read, watch and stream everything in one subscription. You can watch news live 24.

[Stephanie Link]

7.

[Dr. Sanjay Gupta]

You can also explore catch up videos and explainer videos. And you can also watch the library of CNN's originals, including my latest documentary, it doesn't have to hurt, just go to CNN.com AllAccess.

[Edward Jones Narrator]

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[Scott Wapner]

We are back. We're going to start with Disney. Let's look at shares stocks coming off its worst day since April 3rd, that being Liberation Day. It's been a rough week. Let's take a look at the week leads. There he is. Look at that. That says a pretty good story there, Belsky. The target cut to 152. I'm sorry to 152 from 159 at 150 Wells Fargo today. What do you think about this stock? What do you think about where we are? What's going on?

[Brian Belsky]

What's going on? Well, we've will back our position in the stock across all portfolios. I think we own it in one value. And you know, I'm not going to come on air and say it's becoming more of a value stock. It's becoming more of a concern, especially considering all the other entertainment companies with respect to streaming and communication services. There are, there are the clear leaders are coming forward, Scott. So it's for us again, I know you hate when I say this, but it is a relatively small position. In our value. In our value. But it is, you know, when I.

[Scott Wapner]

When a stock is like surging, right. How come when I go to people, they don't say, well, you know, the stock's a very small position, but this is great.

[Brian Belsky]

I do, I've said that like, no.

[Scott Wapner]

It only happens on the downside. It does, dude. Dude, it does.

[Brian Belsky]

I've said that.

[Scott Wapner]

I've been, don't make me go back and find it.

[Brian Belsky]

I've been too small in Palantir. Now it's actually.

[Scott Wapner]

A really small position.

[Brian Belsky]

But you know, given the whole reason why, the premise of why we bought Disney was because of Iger when he came back. And on the operation side, Scott, it has not operated the way that we thought it had. And so that's why we've whittled it down to only one portfolio in the value portfolio.

[Scott Wapner]

Okay. All right, Progressive, you want to talk about that one that got downgraded to hold From Buy Target 232@ Jefferies Stocks having a pretty good intraday move here. Two thirds of 1% in a mixed tape. What about, I mean, insurance stocks haven't been all that great lately either.

[Brian Belsky]

They haven't, but we got through, you know, we got through the hurricane season actually without a big issue in the United States. That's a big deal. Progressive has picked up a lot, lot of market share the last two years and their PNC product is still very, very competitive. So when you're looking at a diversified portfolio within financials, this is, this is one of those insurance companies that we wanted to own and we're going to continue to own it.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, I said you've been. I was going to say, I was going to say something about the Waste management. What you've been shoveling me for the past couple minutes. I know this one was initiated overweight with 238 at Wells Fargo. What do you think?

[Brian Belsky]

We've owned the stock in portfolios for 20 plus years. I mean, Waste management is the stock in industrials you want to own when you're worried about the economy.

[Scott Wapner]

Yeah, so.

[Brian Belsky]

So what we think going forward is we're still going to own it. We'll probably lessen our position going forward because we want to get actually more cyclical in industrials. And this is not a cyclical stock with an industrials. It throws off dividends, got great cash flow. It's a steady Eddie.

[Scott Wapner]

Like what? Like what? Give me a name that you think is part the of. Parker.

[Brian Belsky]

Hannifan.

[Scott Wapner]

Cat. Caterpillar.

[Brian Belsky]

Deer, Honeywell.

[Scott Wapner]

Those types of names speak in Stephanie Link's language.

[Stephanie Link]

Yes, you are. You didn't mention any of those that we. I know you own some of these, like Quanta Services, Verde, Rockwell, Rockwell Automation is really quite interesting. They have a new CFO and they had a blowout quarter because the CFO is focused on margins. And so you're now starting to see operating leverage at the company. You haven't seen it in many, many years. That one is.

[Brian Belsky]

Those companies have all benefited from this Capex. Now there's going to be the next thing, the next phase, right, Automation Robotics. Yep.

[Scott Wapner]

Santoli. He's next. The one and only Mike Santoli, our senior markets commentator here at Prison Post 9 for his midday word. What are your observations on this interesting week?

[Mike Santoli]

We've very Interesting. So first it's the third 3 to 4% pullback in the S&P 500 in the last five weeks. That's a little bit of a change of tone. I don't know that that means it's foreboding. It just shows you we're in a different spot. After six months going straight up, most of the action still qualifies as draining some of the excess oil from the high beta, high momentum, overcrowded stuff in the market. Nothing that really happened this week really refutes the idea that it's largely positioning. I don't think the market loves, you know, kind of a jump ball Fed decision in a few weeks when there's still unease about the economy but it's not panicking about it. I would expect if it was really going to rush to the position of this is a policy mistake, I think you'd see 10 year yields lower. Like you'd have a buying panic in the long and that's not happening. So all that being put together, the S and P peak to trough Intraday where it was bought this morning minus 3.95%. So clearly there's a sense out there that, you know, we don't want to let this get to 5% because there is still the performance imperatives of the end of the year. You still have the strong seasonals, earnings have been going in the right direction. You know, in video next week. I don't think it's determinative of how the whole market goes, but how negative do you want to get on AI.

[Scott Wapner]

But before that, I think those are good points. I mean I don't, I don't think the market is necessarily worried about a policy mistake by, by the Fed. It's, it's just a reality check. Yeah, it's just a reality check. And as Steve Liesman I think just perfectly put it, it's not like we're solely reliant on this, that there's nothing else going on. So we need it so badly to keep this rally going. It would be the cherry on top of what is an already tasty looking Sunday.

[Mike Santoli]

That's what we think we're hoping, hoping that the real economic data don't tell us otherwise, that things have really softened up. I think that the idea that you're going to get a first quarter bump because of tax refunds and all the other provisions and everything has gone from a month ago being kind of like nobody's talking about this to now, everybody's banking on it. I mean, I do think that's really getting in the, in the attitudes, in the price. It's not that it's not plausible, it's probably going to happen, but it's it interesting that we are all of a sudden are saying that's an important piece of the story.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, so you'll see, you'll see me at 3 o' clock closing bell. Look forward to our conversation then. That's Mike Santoli. The setup. It's a big week ahead for retail. We will debate many of the names that are reporting, some that aren't, some that these folks own up here. We'll do it next. Big setup ahead of some big retail earnings next week. Going to be a pivotal week and there's a lot of focus on retail. Let's show you the calendar, show you what's coming. It starts with Home Depot on Tuesday, but then you get Target, TJX and Lowe's on Wednesday. Walmart, Ross, Gap, bath and body, BJ's. Finally on Friday, Brian Belsky. You own Home Depot, you own Lowe's, you own Walmart. Doug McMillan retiring, he's the CEO retiring at the end of January of 2026. What's your take here?

[Brian Belsky]

Yeah, let's start there. Walmart's been doing an amazing job in this transition and talking about that and they're not going to miss a, miss a step here with respect to Walmart versus Target. You know, Target's got their operational issues. We only own it in our value portfolio. Been waiting for the turnaround, got the new CEO. You got to give it a few quarters to see what they can do. Lowe's is your value stock relative to Home Depot is kind of a core position. Quite frankly, Ross is a more defensive area. I think the star there of all of those is TJ Maxx in terms of what they've been able to do in the home goods side of things. Then also their traditional store. So that's a long term core holding.

[Scott Wapner]

If you own Target only in your value portfolio, like even Stephanie Link made the case, she doesn't like the stock that much. She owns it but still thinks it's oversold. Right. Or it's still down, down way too much. A lot of value. Do you see more value there? Would you, would you buy what would make you buy more? That was a long and convoluted way.

[Mike Santoli]

Of getting to run.

[Brian Belsky]

We want two quarters, we want at least two or three quarters to see from the operational basis. We start to see some real turns and return on equity in that company and how they're spending their cash. I want to see how they're handling their inventory going forward and what kind of leadership we're going to come out of that. So I can live with the stock where it is in a value portfolio and see if they can turn around.

[Scott Wapner]

Malcolm, how come you don't own any of these names?

[Malcolm Etheridge]

I much prefer B2B than B2C right now when you got 50% of spending attributable to 10% in US households, what's your take?

[Scott Wapner]

I mean you sort of said your, your target position. I don't think you love a lot in this group. No, but you keep defending the consumer though, which is. Which is interesting to me. But you don't own that many stocks.

[Stephanie Link]

There's different parts of the consumer. I mean I think housing is more attractive, better valuations and I think it sets up well for next year. I think auto, Auto parts. I own Active. I think that's primed to move higher, especially given the spin. I have sellers remorse and Deckers. I have Sellers remorse and Gap to be honest with you. And I told you that I might buy Deckers next year because I took the loss tax loss gap. There's nothing wrong with that. That company other than Athleta and everybody in that space is hurting. So that's one that if it were to be weak on the report, which I don't think it will, but if it were to be, I would definitely buy that back. Richard Dixon is doing a masterful job at turning that company around in that brand around round. So that's the one I find very interesting is trading at 12 times earnings target. I mean they better not do a negative four comp because that's the whisper number. If they do, this thing is going down even further. I don't think they will. This is Brian Cornell's last.

[Scott Wapner]

But there's like a big risk if there's even a risk that they might. You have one of the reasons I trim you. I know. But you take the risk of still holding into what could be an even lower position.

[Stephanie Link]

Very small. It is and I say that now ahead of the. And this thing, if it goes up 20% is still a very small position. It goes down 20%. It's a small position because I don't have conviction in it. It's very hard for me to sell out the whole thing at 12 times earnings with a 5% yield with new management coming on Brian Cornell's last quarter.

[Scott Wapner]

So if it went up 20% or down 20%, would you sell it under?

[Stephanie Link]

Probably. Probably.

[Scott Wapner]

I probably would buy it the pop and sell it. Or if it drops 20%, you just sell it because, I mean, you can't deal with that anymore.

[Stephanie Link]

Yeah, absolutely. And I would probably look to Gap and Deckers.

[Scott Wapner]

All right, we'll do finals next. We got a good one in closing bell today as we finish up this week. A volatile week, no doubt. Tom Lee, Dan Greenhouse, Courtney Garcia, Eric Woodring, Morgan Stanley, the Apple analyst. So we got a lot to talk about before we wrap this week up. Before we wrap this show up, we got to do final trades. I turn to Brian Belsky. Scott, we're going Humble Humorless Capital Management.

[Brian Belsky]

Thank you.

[Stephanie Link]

Thank you.

[Brian Belsky]

We're going with Raymond James Financial, one of the last standalone brokerage firms. It's a wonderful shop with both a broker dealer and an asset management business.

[Malcolm Etheridge]

I'm going Zscaler. It's been falling this week, but earnings are in a couple of weeks. I expect them to be strong.

[Scott Wapner]

Linkster Palo Alto all right, good stuff the exchanges.

[Stephanie Link]

Now.

[Scott Wapner]

You'Ve been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast. You can always catch us live, weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.

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[Scott Wapner]

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