CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: AI Anxiety and Cut Concerns Hit Stocks
Date: November 14, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Stephanie Link, Malcolm Etheridge, Brian Belsky, Steve Liesman (Economics Correspondent), Mackenzie Segalos (Crypto), Mike Santoli (Market Commentator)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on "market anxiety" stemming from major AI-led tech selloffs, debates over whether AI is in a bubble, and the shifting prospects for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Host Scott Wapner and the investment committee analyze reasons behind recent market volatility—including spending and valuations in AI, debt concerns (notably Oracle and Meta), and rate cut uncertainty—while also zooming in on crypto turbulence and upcoming retail earnings. The tone is energetic and, at times, sharply opinionated, with a clear focus on actionable investment strategies.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. AI Spending, Valuations, and 'Anxiety': Is This a Bubble?

[01:01–13:42]

• Scott Wapner sets the stage: The markets have been volatile, with the Dow red but Nasdaq and S&P up. Two big issues loom: "anxiety" over AI spending/debt and doubts about a December rate cut.
  • Notable recent worries:
    • Meta's heavy spending post-earnings
    • Oracle giving up all its earning gains (debt worries)
    • OpenAI's CFO "backstop" comments
    • Michael Burry winding up his hedge fund
  • "What do I do with all of that as I think about where we are in the market…?" — Scott Wapner [02:48]

Stephanie Link’s Bullish Take

• "I think it's totally overblown. You know, I've been buying, adding on weakness...We're in the early innings in AI. You're going to have volatility though." [03:10]
• Notes massive Capex across tech ($400B this year by MAG7), industrials ($200B), and utilities ($250B), describing enduring themes in power infrastructure.
• Cites stellar earnings/revenue growth across tech leaders (Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom), framing pullbacks as buying opportunities.
• "I added to Meta and I added to Microsoft." [04:55]
• On Meta: Down 19% in two weeks, but growing earnings 20%, revenue 26%; big buyback.
• On Microsoft: "I haven't owned Microsoft in a long time...their growth is exciting, so I'm looking for opportunity." [07:04]

Is AI a Bubble? The Committee Debates

• Mary Erdoes (JP Morgan Asset Management, via clip): "AI itself is not a bubble. That’s a crazy concept. That’s like saying ‘are computers a bubble?’" [05:38]
• Brian Belsky: Strongly agrees, citing lack of speculative hallmarks (i.e., crazy M&A, IPO frenzies) from the dot-com bubble era. "I think it’s bunk… I think we’re in the second or third inning of this whole AI thing." [11:19]
• "It’s a stock-picker’s type market in that area." [11:57]
• Volatility called "very, very healthy" and a necessary check on over-bullish sentiment. "These bears have done their job and shook things up a little bit and afford an opportunity for Steph to swoop in." [13:20]

2. Meta’s Spending and Monetization

[07:51–09:39]

• Malcolm Etheridge challenges Meta optimism: "How much advertising can I create that Meta can sell that justifies the spend in the next two to three years?" [07:51]
• Stephanie counters: Massive install base, early signs of monetization via ad price and impressions. Admits she doesn’t like the excess spending, but expects ROI over time.
  • "They are starting to monetize it, which is why I talked about the price per ad up 10%. They are monetizing it." — Stephanie Link [08:32]

3. Oracle, Stock Rotations, and ‘Healthy’ Corrections

[13:42–17:24]

• Scott Wapner: Notes big selloffs in recent winner names (Palantir, Broadcom, Vistra, Reddit, Oracle) and highlights Oracle's parabolic move/collapse.
• Brian Belsky: Sees Oracle’s correction as "very, very healthy," discourages chasing earnings pops. Stays put due to already large position.
• Malcolm Etheridge: Sold half his Oracle at the peak; now looking to buy back at lower levels. "The market got way too euphoric… Now is the place where a rational investor should be looking..." [16:38]

4. Rate Cut Prospects and the Fed’s Influence

[17:24–24:26]

• Wapner pivots to shifting rate cut expectations—no longer a lock for December; yields have risen sharply.
• Steve Liesman (CNBC Economics): Rate cut probability for December falls to 41%—lowest since September. "Powell doesn’t have the votes now for a cut." [18:13]
• Market has been "over its skis," didn't listen to the Fed’s skepticism as inflation stuck at ~3%, labor market still strong.
• Stephanie Link: "GDP is running at three and a half to four percent and that's probably one of the reasons why you’re seeing above-trend inflation to begin with." [23:15]
• Brian Belsky: Biotech surge and financials’ strength suggest market is not wholly dependent on cuts; commercial lending poised for a comeback. "A lot of these biotechs have amazing balance sheets…financials win by that [GDP]." [24:26]

5. Crypto Breakdown: Bitcoin and Exchanges (Coinbase)

[27:50–32:24]

• Mackenzie Segalos:
  • Bitcoin hits lowest since May, down 24% from record highs, suffering fifth negative week in six.
  • Over $1.3B in leveraged crypto wiped out in 24 hours; spot ETF flows flip negative, outflows highest since their launch.
  • Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy reportedly cut holdings (disputed by Saylor); other proxy bets hammered.
  • "With momentum rolling over, technical sellers stepping in, and then the pro-crypto regulatory tailwind fading, this is still a real departure from November norms." [28:10]
• Bitcoin’s increased volatility linked to flows moving from spot ETFs to levered/proxy trades; thinning liquidity.
• Stephanie Link on Coinbase: Small (2%) position, sees exchange business benefiting from any volatility, not just higher prices. "All I need is a buyer and a seller." Would add on weakness but keep position right-sized. [31:00, 31:57]

6. Stock Calls: Disney, Progressive, Industrials

[35:00–38:32]

• Disney: Target cut to $152; Belsky shrinks position, says operational performance under Iger disappointing. "We've whittled it down to only one portfolio in the value portfolio." [36:22]
• Progressive (PGR): Downgraded, but Belsky remains confident—good market share, strong product.
• Waste Management: Long-term holding, but position may be reduced in favor of more cyclical industrial names (Parker-Hannifin, Caterpillar, Deere, Honeywell).
• Rockwell Automation/Capex: Stephanie Link highlights Rockwell’s new CFO and operating leverage; both Link and Belsky note that industrials are set for another Capex-driven phase (automation, robotics).

7. Market Sentiment and Broader Outlook

[38:53–41:01]

• Mike Santoli’s "Midday Word":

  • "It’s the third 3 to 4% pullback in the S&P 500 in the last five weeks."
  • Action reflects "draining some of the excess oil from the high beta, high momentum, overcrowded stuff in the market."
  • Little evidence of panic despite unease about the economy—a "reality check," not a crisis.
  • Earnings have generally been positive; strong year-end seasonality in play.

• Scott Wapner: Reiterates Fed’s role is important, but not the sole prop for the rally; would help but not necessary. "It would be the cherry on top of what is an already tasty looking Sunday." [40:05]

8. Retail Earnings Preview

[41:01–45:16]

• Big Week Ahead: Retailers reporting include Home Depot, Target, TJX, Lowe’s, Walmart, Ross, Gap, Bath & Body, BJ’s.
• Belsky:
  • Walmart praised, doesn’t expect transition to new CEO to be disruptive.
  • Target held only in value portfolio—waiting multiple quarters for a measurable turn.
  • TJX called the star; Ross more defensive.
• Malcolm Etheridge: Prefers B2B over retail at this stage, "B2B over B2C right now."
• Stephanie Link: Likes housing and auto stocks more than retailers; sees potential in Active, regrets selling Deckers and Gap. On Target: too risky, small position, would likely sell after any big move; more interested in Gap and Deckers as turnaround stories.

9. Final Trades & Closing Thoughts

[45:46–46:06]

• Brian Belsky: Raymond James Financial — "one of the last standalone brokerage firms…wonderful shop."
• Malcolm Etheridge: Zscaler — expects strong earnings despite recent drop.
• Stephanie Link: Palo Alto Networks; bullish on the exchanges.

Notable Quotes and Moments

• "AI itself is not a bubble. That's a crazy concept. That's like saying are computers a bubble." — Mary Erdoes [05:38]
• "I think it's totally overblown... we're in the early innings in AI." — Stephanie Link [03:10]
• "We're not seeing these massive M&A deals in frivolous, seeing a lot of debt deals... That was the essence of 99, 2000. We're not seeing that." — Brian Belsky [10:23]
• "When you think they're not coming in, that's when they're coming in. This is called a correction. And this is very, very healthy." — Brian Belsky [13:08]
• "Powell doesn't have the votes now for a cut? I don't think he does. I reported this a couple days ago… when you look at the sum total of what people are saying, the votes are not there." — Steve Liesman [18:13]
• "Bitcoin has now erased all its gains since President Trump's inauguration as forced liquidations accelerate, volatility spikes and risk appetite fades..." — Mackenzie Segalos [28:10]
• "All I need is a buyer and a seller. So I don't necessarily need the price to be so much higher or it could be lower and this company can still be profitable." — Stephanie Link on Coinbase [31:02]
• "It's the third 3 to 4% pullback in the S&P 500 in the last five weeks... most of the action still qualifies as draining some of the excess oil from the high beta, high momentum, overcrowded stuff." — Mike Santoli [38:53]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• AI Market Anxiety & Bubble Debate: 01:01–13:42
• Meta Spending/Advertising Debate: 07:51–09:39
• Oracle & Rotation/Corrections: 13:42–17:24
• Rate Cut Odds & Fed Impact: 17:24–24:26
• Crypto/Bitcoin Volatility: 27:50–32:24
• Disney & Stock Calls: 35:00–38:32
• Market Outlook w/ Santoli: 38:53–41:01
• Retail Earnings Preview: 41:01–45:16
• Final Trades: 45:46–46:06

Overall Tone & Structure

• Fast-paced, lively, at moments combative but always expert.
• Strong emphasis on real-time actionable strategies and "buying the dip" amid volatility.
• Panelists challenge each other's convictions while consistently returning to fundamentals, earnings trends, and macro data.

Summary designed for listeners who missed the episode: This edition of Halftime Report is a deep dive into whether the AI-driven bull market is overblown, how to play tech pullbacks, what to expect on the Fed/rate cut front, how crypto contagion is impacting markets, and where the next retail winners might come from. The consensus: volatility in leaders like Meta, Oracle, and Bitcoin is healthy—not the harbinger of a bubble—while a selective, fundamentals-first approach remains crucial. The market is repricing expectations, but underlying growth and spending trends in both tech and industrials are robust, and there’s plenty of room for smart stock pickers to thrive.