Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: AI Trade Intact?
Date: September 4, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Josh Brown, Bryn Talkington, Bill Baruch, Brian Belsky

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report dives deep into the state of the market’s AI trade, the driving forces behind explosive moves in top tech names, shifting investor sentiment, and the evolving tech landscape amid economic and policy developments. The panel scrutinizes key earnings, mega cap tech, software, chip stocks, and the broader macro narrative as Wall Street positions for the end of 2025.

Key Discussion Points

1. Current State of the AI Trade & Tech Mega Caps

• Market Overview [01:01]: Stocks are green despite weak ADP and a beat in ISM services; gold hits another record as yields drop.
• Big Movers: Amazon and Meta lead the day with major gains; Amazon is expanding data centers for Anthropic, which renews optimism in capex increases fueling further stock upside.

Liquidity vs. Fundamentals

• Brian Belsky [02:20]:
  “Near term, fundamentally based? Probably not. Longer term? Yes, Scott. … Investors that have missed the move, they go into these big liquidity names one at a time.”
  • Short-term moves are liquidity-driven; but secular strength in mega caps remains.
  • Caution advised on chasing; longer term, many of these names remain “exquisite, tactical, and secular.”
• Josh Brown [03:21]:
  “I think you build more, you spend more, these specific stocks will then go higher until they don’t...”
  • The market is rewarding big techs for aggressive CapEx in AI/cloud, especially Amazon.

Tech CEOs at White House—Policy & Regulation

• Top tech CEOs (Tim Cook, Zuckerberg, Gates, Altman, Brin, Pichai, Nadella) attend a White House summit on AI.
• Josh Brown [04:48]:
  “... the more we strangle this thing in the crib, the more likely it is that we’ll end up looking like Europe did after the first rise of the ...dotcom companies ... As a result there are no mag sevens based in Europe.”
  • US policy must preserve scale and competition to ensure tech leadership.

Amazon’s Setup

• Technical momentum: Amazon recovers from post-earnings dip, now challenging highs, with upside targets as high as $275.
• Josh Brown [05:58]:
  “This is one of my highest conviction positions for this year. Hasn’t been great so far but I think the best is yet to come.”

2. Macro: Fed Rate Cuts & Market Sentiment

• John Williams, NY Fed [07:09]: Leans toward neutral policy if progress continues; notes inflation risks from tariffs but also highlights a cooling labor market.
• Steve Liesman [08:29]:
  “... it’s very much a done deal ... 96% on the probability of a rate cut ... two built in pretty much for this year, 50 basis points.”
  • Rate cuts are widely expected; any surprise to the contrary could upset markets.

3. Portfolio Moves: Managing Exposure to the AI Trade

• Bill Baruch [09:17]:
  • Investors more comfortable with higher tech valuations, particularly Amazon.
  • Portfolio managers underperforming the market are being forced to chase the “Mag Seven”.
• On raising cash:
  • Baruch trims Nvidia, Broadcom to increase cash to 8%:
    • Nvidia: Still top holding at just under 6%.
    • Broadcom: Cut to 4%, still double the benchmark.
    • Cites seasonally weaker period and possible rotation.
  • Plans to redeploy into Apple and Amazon if opportunity arises.
• Bill Baruch [12:04]:
  “I'd rather raise cash, get us to 8% cash kind of watch and wait a couple rounds. … we're outperforming the benchmark significantly right now. So it gives us that moment and flexibility.”

4. Apple: Upgrade, Valuation, and AI Narrative

• Upgrade by MoffettNathanson: From Sell to Neutral, noting worst-case risks are off the table but valuation remains high.
• Josh Brown [13:18]:
  “Apple has this super premium embedded into its valuation ... I just don’t see how this is going to be one of the better performing names of the Mag 7 unless there’s some like unbelievable product launch...”
• Bryn Talkington [15:24]:
  • Sees upgrade cycles as inevitable due to the massive user base.
  • Next year’s planned AI integration (via Google partnership) could provide upside surprises.
• Brian Belsky [17:04]:
  “If you look at the standard deviation of earnings growth of Apple, it is the most stable in the entire tech sector. ... It's really dangerous to be underweight Apple for the next couple [years].”
• Bill Baruch [17:53]:
  Praises Apple's flexibility to integrate external AI services if their own offerings lag.

5. Chip Stocks: Rotation and Rebalancing

• Texas Instruments: Brian Belsky exits from dividend portfolio, reallocates into Qualcomm due to fundamental concerns with TXN [19:05].

6. Software Shakedown: Salesforce, SaaS, and the AI Paradox

• Salesforce (CRM):
  • Notably underperforms; down 29% YTD.
  • Earnings not bad; weak guidance. Mark Benioff positions AI as an “extension” not “elimination” of SaaS.
• Panel Debate:
  • Bryn: CRM agent force not monetizing yet; names like Palantir saw better monetization from AI.
  • Josh Brown [21:23]:
    “This company, it’s a great company, I think it’s in trouble ... [because clientele] are starting to get by with fewer workers ... Less workers means less seats ... the biggest winners this year are the companies in the opposite direction, the AI enablers and cybersecurity ...”
    • Investors are shunning legacy SaaS needing headcount growth, and favoring AI “enablers.”
  • Further Deliberation:
    Not all SaaS/software is equally impacted (Snowflake and MongoDB outperform), but commoditization risk and moat disruption are existential issues.
  • Bryn [24:27]:
    “On Salesforce, their margins went up … 40% of their bookings with data, cloud and AI were from existing companies ... I just think there’s a floor here.”
  • Bill Baruch [25:35]:
    Links CRM and Adobe: both old software names relying on acquisitions, while newer names (MongoDB, Snowflake) grow organically.

7. Cybersecurity: Strategic Rotation

• Brian Belsky [29:42]:
  • Sells CyberArk; reallocates half to Palo Alto Networks, half to Check Point, favoring cheaper valuation.
  • Missed CrowdStrike but willing to reconsider.

8. Streaming Wars: Disney vs. Netflix

• Disney’s profitability in streaming is a game-changer, signaling durability alongside Netflix.
  • Josh Brown [31:14]:
    “...getting to profitability is something that only like three or four streaming companies probably will ever be able to do ... if you’re Disney, it puts you in a power position unlike anything ... in a really long time.”
  • Belsky prefers to “straddle” with Google/Netflix as growth plays, Disney as the value play.

9. Notable Stock Calls & Moves

Electronic Arts (EA) [36:11]

• Josh Brown's “Best Stocks” Spotlight:
  • Praises Bryn’s Roblox call; sees EA emulating Roblox’s developer-driven monetization model.
  • Upcoming Battlefield 6 is a major platform pivot—a blend of Call of Duty and Fortnite, opening a new era for user-generated content.
  • Technical setup: Support at $160, targets up to $200 if the launch is a hit.
  • Josh Brown [37:18]:
    “For the first time ever, EA is going to have creators and individual players be able to contribute to the game, make their own content inside of the game, expand the universe ... So think of a combination of Call of Duty and Fortnite...”

Other Calls

• Leidos (LDOS) [32:51]: Upgraded for growth and undervaluation, especially with health care expansion.
• 3M (MMM) [33:18]: Seen as a turnaround play, breaking out after consolidation.
• Lululemon (LULU) [45:12]: Belsky trims after recent buy, citing operational uncertainty but sees value over next 24 months.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Tech Valuations:
  “It’s like a frog in boiling water right now. Everybody’s very comfortable with the higher valuations.” — Bill Baruch [09:17]
• On Apple’s Staying Power:
  “It is the most stable in the entire tech sector. ... I think it’s really, really dangerous to be underweight Apple for the next couple (years).” — Brian Belsky [17:04]
• On AI Policy Risks:
  “The more we strangle this thing in the crib, the more likely it is that we’ll end up looking like Europe did [with tech].” — Josh Brown [04:48]
• On SaaS Disruption:
  “Less workers means less seats, less seats means less [revenue].” — Josh Brown [21:23]
• On Platform Shifts in Gaming:
  “Think of a combination of Call of Duty and Fortnite to give you an idea of what's about to happen here.” — Josh Brown [37:18]

Important Timestamps

• 01:01 – Show main theme, tech and markets overview
• 02:09 – Analysis of recent mega-cap tech moves (Brian Belsky)
• 03:21 – Capex, Amazon, and AI trade insights (Josh Brown)
• 04:03 – 06:59 – Tech CEOs at White House, AI policy, Amazon technicals
• 07:09 – 08:29 – Fed commentary and rate cut expectations
• 09:17 – 12:48 – Portfolio adjustments: trimming Nvidia, Broadcom, cash buildup
• 13:18 – 17:53 – Apple debate: upgrades, valuation, impact of AI partnerships
• 18:28 – Texas Instruments rotation to Qualcomm
• 19:25 – 27:29 – Deep dive into Salesforce, SaaS, and AI disruption
• 29:42 – 30:55 – Cybersecurity stocks: Palo Alto, Check Point, CrowdStrike rotation
• 31:14 – 32:47 – Disney vs. Netflix streaming profitability
• 36:11 – 39:27 – Electronic Arts: platform pivot, technical levels, Roblox comparison
• 45:12 – 45:39 – Lululemon trim and value thesis

Final Trades [46:07]

• Brian Belsky: Raymond James Financial (RJF)
• Bill Baruch: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)
• Bryn Talkington: Apollo Global Management (APO)
• Josh Brown: Amazon (AMZN)

Overall Flow & Tone

The panel expertly balances bullish conviction in the AI and tech mega cap trade with pragmatic caution about valuations, positioning, and portfolio flexibility. The tone is lively and frequently irreverent, with robust debate on fast-evolving AI narratives, software disruption, and stock-specific catalysts. Listeners are guided through direct, actionable opinions and real-life portfolio moves in real time—backed by sharp analysis, technical insight, and sector expertise.

For those who missed the episode:
This session distills the market’s current obsession with AI-driven capex, mega tech leadership, and the ripple effects on everything from semis and software to streaming and gaming. The conversation avoids empty hype and spotlights both the promise and perils ahead—as investors face a complex end-of-year setup in both markets and policy.