← Halftime Report
Halftime Report
AI Trade Intact? 9/4/25
00:44:27
Scott Wapner and the Investment Committee debate the state of the AI trade. The experts detail their latest portfolio moves. Calls of the Day include Disney, Leidos, and 3M. Josh Brown is back with his Best Stocks in the Market. The earnings setup is on Lululemon. Investment Committee Disclosures
Loading summary
Transcript141 lines
- [00:00]
Josh Brown
What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes, and everything in between. With over 100 years experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life, your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, we'll do all we can to help you keep enjoying it. Edward Jones Member, SIPC and now a.
- [00:32]
Scott Wapner
Next level moment from AT&T business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding. And International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease. So the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. ATT 5G requires a compatible plan and device. Coverage not available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network.
- [01:02]
I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. Carl, thanks very much. Welcome to the Halftime Report. I'm Scott Wapner. Front and center this hour, the state of the AI trade. More big moves to tell you about today. Not all of them are up. We will discuss with the investment committee. Joining me for the hour today, Josh Brown, Bryn Talkington, Bill Baruch, Brian Belsky. Everybody's here at Post nine. We're happy about that. We'll check the markets today. We are green across the board. ADP was weak. ISM services beat, yields are lower. Gold's at a new record yet again. And that is the backdrop. But we are focusing on these continued big moves for some of these tech names. Amazon is the one today along with Metta. Amazon's going to ramp its data center build for anthropic meta's up 1718 bucks. At least it was. I mean, these are the kind of moves that, you know, generally see following Alphabet yesterday. That was extraordinary in its own right. Brian Belsky, it's good to have you, man.
- [02:10]
Brian Belsky
Hey, thanks for having us. Great to see you.
- [02:12]
Scott Wapner
What's a make of the kind of moves that we're seeing fundamentally based? I mean, makes sense to you? I'm not saying it doesn't.
- [02:20]
Brian Belsky
I'm just curious your thoughts near term, fundamentally based? Probably not longer term? Yes, Scott. I mean one of the things we've been talking about through this Year and we've had these massive moves on a stock by stock basis. Remember last time we talked about how Apple was just a juggernaut in August? Right. People were selling Apple early and Apple and these big bank 7 stocks because of the liquidity side. I think investors that have missed the move, they go into these big liquidity names one at a time. And then the whole Google overreaction in the spring. Then we had the great news on Monday. Uh oh, this is for real. We like it. Again, we're gonna go right back into it now we have the Amazon thing. So I think it's the same theme short term, longer term. Fundamentally these names are still in our view exquisite, tactical and longer term secular names to. But on a near term basis we do believe that it's based on liquidity and these big names that you can get into and out of quickly.
- [03:12]
Scott Wapner
Yeah. Bryn, how do you. It's great to have you here in person. Welcome to New York. What do you think, what do you think about this trade that you're right in the middle of with everybody else?
- [03:22]
Josh Brown
I think that you spend more right now and your stock goes higher. I think there was concern that Amazon was not spending enough. They weren't buying enough of Nvidia chips. They were focused too much on their own chips and not spending enough. And they come out to say they're going to work with Anthropic to build more data centers. And so I think you build more, you spend more. These, these specific stocks will then go higher until they don't. Right. And so I think these cap like companies, and not that Amazon's ever been cap cap like they've always been Capex, but these cap like companies in general that have turned into very heavy capex companies, you know the market will reward them until, until it doesn't. But that doesn't seem to be any time that that's going to turn.
- [04:03]
Scott Wapner
Well, they're in the spotlight, these companies and these CEOs. We just showed you video of Tim Cook arriving at the White House ago. We can rack that back and show it to you again because the President is hosting tech CEOs. It's the first event in what was the Rose Garden renovated, of course. But there's Tim Cook arriving for what's an evening event. So he's got many hours to kill and who knows what he's going to do inside the White House. But it's interesting that he is there this early. Zuckerberg, Bill Gates, Sam Altman. Altman, Sergey Brin, Sundar Pichai. Sapper, Katz, Malhotra, Satya Nadella. It is a who's who of tech CEOs at the White House, Josh, where this just remains the game to play in this market.
- [04:48]
Yeah, I think what's very obviously about to happen is a discussion about the importance of the United States leading in AI. And all of these companies have a lot at stake obviously and the case that they'll make is the more we strangle this thing in the crib, the more likely it is that we'll end up looking like Europe did after the first rise of the original dot com companies. They were not big fans of large sprawling enterprises that get into different verticals and use their oligopolistic position to increase users, increase revenue, increase profits. And as a result there are no mag sevens based in Europe. There's nothing that even comes close. There aren't even pretenders. And I think that's probably in the back of everyone's mind. How do we make sure that in this web 3.0 world or whatever we're calling it, the interesting thing is it's not just going to be the incumbents. So you have players like OpenAI and Anthropic and others and we it's still too early to know what will shake out. But the one thing we know for sure, this is going to be a scale business. Like there's no way around it. This is not going to be a business where one niche player is really good at, one type of AI can survive. They're all going to be competing with each other relentlessly. And in the end the more devices you have your software on, the more users you can derive your algorithms information from, the more powerful your service will end up being. Which is why you see the heads of the largest companies paying this much attention to the political aspect of it. One thing on Amazon, very quickly, if you guys don't mind just throwing up a one year chart or whatever, we had a gap fill as of today. So basically you had the end of July company reported earnings. You could see that huge downdraft. People said oh no, this wasn't a good quarter for Amazon. Bounced right off that 200 day moving average at about 212 to 215 in that area. Almost textbook. Now you're back to those highs. If we can take out the pre earnings high, I think this stock can get to new territory where it's never been before. Talking to 50 to 275. This is one of my highest conviction positions for this year. Hasn't been great so far but I think the best is yet to come.
- [06:59]
All right. We'll get back to the conversation in a moment because New York Fed President John Williams speaking at this hour here at the Economic Club of New York. Steve Liesman has the headlines for us.
- [07:10]
Steve Liesman
Scott, thanks. New York Fed President John Williams saying it's appropriate to move interest rates to a more neutral stance if progress towards both sides of the dual mandate continue. He says staying restricted for too long could increase the risk to the employment mandate a little further than he went with me in my interview with him last week. He is not seeing signs of second round effects of tariffs on inflation and he does forecast higher inflation and slower growth, but he says the effects of tariffs have not been the largest expected, noting its early days as well. However, he says price increases for tariff affected items were well above what was expected and there's clear signs affecting consumer prices. On the other hand, he says the labor market is cooling and that is consistent with the slower economic growth that he expects. Lower immigration, he says, and tariffs reduce productive capacity and demand. I'll leave it there, except to say, Scott, we are monitoring the hearing of nominee Fed, Fed governor nominee Stephen Myron, the CEO chair right now to see if perhaps he can take his share before the next fed meeting on September 16th.
- [08:11]
Scott Wapner
Okay, Steve, thank you. I mean, it feels to me as though if the Fed doesn't cut this month that I don't think the market's going to take it very well. Does it feel like a done deal in many respects to you? I mean, I feel like it's going to be a surprise at this point if they don't.
- [08:30]
Steve Liesman
I think so. I think there's a level tomorrow of the jobs number of potential strength that might say, wait a second, why are we cutting here? Like if it's 150,000 people have been writing that essentially that number has been going up given the commentary from Fed officials. So, yeah, it's very much a done deal with a debate right now, Scott. I'll look it up. 95% on the 96% on the probability of a rate cut and come October 51st and after that for December. So you got two built in pretty much for this year, 50 basis points.
- [09:02]
Scott Wapner
All right, good stuff, Steve. We'll see what happens with that jobs report adding to the narrative on where rates are going. Thank you. Senior economics correspondent Bill Baruch. I don't, I want to move off of this topic because I don't want to debate interest rates. I want to discuss sort of of the moment these, these stocks that are Moving what you think about it?
- [09:18]
Bill Baruch
Yeah, I think there's three things in AI arms race. Brent dived into that a little bit. And then the other thing too is if you look back, a lot of investors were uncomfortable with high valuations. It's like a frog in boiling water right now. Everybody's very comfortable with the higher valuations. Not only higher valuations, but they've grown into them. I mean Amazon is actually at a, at a 26 forward right now, which long run average is just shy under, under 31. We really like Amazon and I'm looking at the same levels Josh is looking at potentially breaking out above that earnings and, and that range that we saw at post earnings fallout gives you the 250 to 275 breakout. I think that a lot of these names people are, are, are getting used to that, that, that valuation and they're growing into it, like I said. But thirdly, managers, you know, if they are underperforming the index, which many are, they're going to have to chase and the quarter four ramp up can be this mag seven that leads the way. So these, you know, these are the names that, you know, I think you'll see a lot of, a lot of flow to and it's going to drive the index into the end of the year.
- [10:19]
Scott Wapner
Well, okay, if that's the case and why are you trimming in Video and Broadcom?
- [10:22]
Bill Baruch
This is really of a, of a positioning move portfolio positioning wise, this gets us to 8% cash. In video, we were really just shy under, under the, the benchmark, it takes us our position to just under 6%, still our largest holding. We shaved it by 25 basis points. In the main portfolio, Broadcom, we, we shaved it by 75 basis points, gets it down to a 4% position, which mind you is still nearly twice the benchmark. It gives us some flexibility to get through this earnings report, see what happens. We are in a seasonally weaker time of year, but we are also in a transitional time of year. What is going to move forward from here? Is it going to see a little bit rotation or we see a cyclical rally? It gives us the flexibility to kind of push into that.
- [11:02]
Scott Wapner
Well, it sounds like you're answering the questions that you're asking with a yes, like you're, you're, you're to me gaming out. You think Broadcom may go down off of its earnings tonight following Video, which has been down five days in a row coming into today, and that the market is going to have a rotation. You're posing these questions and throwing them in the ether. But I feel like they're directly impacting your decisions.
- [11:23]
Bill Baruch
I think that seasonally we see a little more soft time of year. The Nasdaq, you know, the NASDAQ 100 is building out a little bit of a head and shoulders which is a negative pattern when it comes to Broadcom. It's a two standard deviation in its multiple right now which typically is a bit of a sell signal. So I think they're priced to perfection in earnings which gives me a little bit of pause. And again this from a portfolio management standpoint, I want to have that.
- [11:49]
Scott Wapner
Everybody always says that portfolio management, I mean of course it's a portfolio management standpoint. You run a portfolio, you're going to manage it. But I mean the moves you're making strike me is looking to just raise some cash almost not wherever you can, but in a lot, in a lot of different places.
- [12:05]
Bill Baruch
It brings us down where our top six names, I mean we, we own in Video, Broadcom, Metta, Alphabet, Apple, all there and they're all between 4% and 6%. I do want to my favorite two right now are Apple and Amazon. And I see some of that cash potentially going there. I mean and you've. I've been on the show over the last couple of years talking about sometimes what I've been negative the market buying put spreads or, or protecting downside in that manner. I think we are in a bull market. I think the year is going to finish very strongly. So I don't want to waste spending premium on insurance. I'd rather raise cash, get us to 8% cash kind of watch and wait a couple rounds. And I mean we are outperforming the benchmark significantly right now. So it gives us that moment and flexibility to be able to take a step back.
- [12:48]
Scott Wapner
Okay, I appreciate the more in depth answer. Speaking of Apple upgraded today at Moffitt Nathanson they had it on sell, they take it to neutral. Quote Apple remains a very expensive stock and its AI challenges remain. But the worst case scenarios are off the table north of 30 times next year's earnings. Still in our view, too rich for any company with good but not great earnings growth. But as risks to fundamentals resolve, we don't believe that a sell thesis solely supported by valuation concerns is justified. Everybody owns this name. What do you make of this call?
- [13:18]
Yeah, what you don't want to pay 38 times earnings for 8% earnings growth next year? Why not? What's wrong with that? Apple has this super premium embedded into its valuation by virtue of the fact that it's been at it for 40 years, most of those years successful. It's got this unbeatable franchise, at least unbeatable up until now franchise on the services side, people that become locked into the ecosystem never leave it's replacement cycle in computers, replacement cycle in phones, a significantly slower replacement cycle in iPads, but so be it. Those things last forever. They're indestructible. But when you look at the way it's being valued, I'm long, I'm bullish. I've been in the name forever in a day. I just, I don't see how this is going to be one of the better performing names of the mag 7 unless there's some like unbelievable product launch that none of us are pricing in, which I submit is possible. They have an event in September. I don't know what that's about. Maybe just another phone upgrade. My friend who's in the business tells me they're going to start making phones out of aluminum so they'll break faster because people are not replacing the titanium phones the way. Sorry, conspiracy, but whatever. Anyway, second highest peg ratio of the mag 7 right behind Tesla at 4.1. So even if you're bullish on Apple's growth story into 26, it's hard to argue that the market already isn't there. So some major product launch is probably the only way I can mentally get to seeing this name go from 237 to 300. And I do see that level of upside for some of the other large caps. So I'm, I'm long but not that excited.
- [15:01]
Brin, the stock's up 17% in a month and a lot of times you have had a sell the news event. When you come into this event, they do the big whatever they do and then the stock sells off. Morgan Stanley's Eric Woodring says may not happen this time, that there are some a number of positive catalysts around which could lead to the stock going up perhaps coming out of the event. What do you think?
- [15:25]
Josh Brown
Well, so I sold half my position in December and then I bought more at 209 after listening to the earnings call which I had said last year when the iPhone 16 came out. I think the iPhone 16 would be incremental, not exponential because there was no need to upgrade if you had a 14 or 15. I think on what's going to happen what I hear is they're going to come out with like an ozempic iPhone. It's like a little bit thinner, a little bit less Bells and whistles, but it's like only going to have one camera. Okay. So I don't think the 17 is going to be exponential either. But I do think their partnership with Google being solidified, they were still able to grow iPhone 16 revenues 2%. When you have a billion and a half user base, and I think the majority of iPhone users are iPhone 13, you're going to get an upgrade cycle whether it comes in the 6, 17 or 18. And you have this one and a half billion user base that I think as they add AI next year, which Tim Cook on the call was really clear about next year. I think there's a floor in the name and I agree with Josh. I don't think it's going to be the best performer, but I think there's upside surprises as they trickle out, what they're going to do with Gemini, Google, etc. On the.
- [16:34]
Scott Wapner
It feels silly to ask, you know, whether 3 trillion or whatever it is now near 3 trillion market cap company is getting its act together, but it feels like kind of they are. I mean for what the criticism had become kind of loud for, are they.
- [16:52]
Answering some of Microsoft? So when we, like when we say getting its act together, it's been a huge home run over the long term. But Microsoft has blown the doors off of Apple in the era so far. So I think that's what we're most.
- [17:05]
Brian Belsky
Yeah, if you're only talking AI, Josh, but if you go back and look at earnings consistency, right, this is a really, really big deal. So those of you that facts that look at this measure called earnings consistency, if you don't do the standard deviation of earnings growth, if you look at the standard deviation of earnings growth of Apple, it is the most stable in the entire tech sector. So guess what? You get what you pay for. And so I think the other thing that Brian nailed it on is this whole thing with Google, people are missed that they've forgotten about that. That's actually a really, really big deal. So I think that's what's really going to drive Apple to be a consistent performer. Not saying massively overweight it, but maintain your position. I think it's really, really dangerous to be underweight Apple for the next couple.
- [17:45]
Scott Wapner
I mean, well, we should, we should mention that's a stabilizing factor not just for earnings but for price. It's a huge buyback.
- [17:54]
Bill Baruch
I agree with Brian. We were underweight significantly on Apple through the middle part of the year after its earnings report, we ramped up our positioning. I've been wanting to buy more. I really like this news out of with Alphabet right now because it does allow other services to be on the iPhone. And you know, they had to, to provide that, that I, I mean, they could work with whoever they want to get on there. And so if they aren't generating the AI, you know, the AI, intel, intel that they want to put out there, I think we'll get something from Apple soon. But if we don't, if they don't get it, then they're going, there's going to be a lot of way to operate it from the devices that Apple provides.
- [18:28]
Scott Wapner
Let me, let me just mention, since we, we were on Nvidia and then Broadcom, which we said reported today after the bell, you made a move in a chip stock. It's Texas Instruments. Yeah. Stock was lower. They gave a business update at cities to TMT conference. There you go. Down 4% today. Did you sell it or trim it after you heard that, or was this just happen by happenstance?
- [18:55]
Brian Belsky
No, you live by the sword, die by the sword in terms of our process because we have to publish everything first and then make the move. So we published all these changes September 2nd and then we made the change that day.
- [19:05]
Scott Wapner
Oh, okay.
- [19:06]
Brian Belsky
And so what we've done is we've been worried about Texas for a long time. We don't own it, any tactical portfolios or any value portfolios. We only own it in our dividend growth portfolio. And we're like, there's an issue fundamentally here that we have to get rid of it. And then we've moved all of our Texas Instruments money from a dividend growth perspective into Qualcomm.
- [19:26]
Scott Wapner
Into Qualcomm. Yep. Let's talk about Salesforce. I don't, I don't see how we can not spend a fair amount of time discussing this and, and the software trademark because of what Salesforce hasn't done. So it's the worst performing large cap tech stock of the year. It's down 29%. The stock's down near 6%. Their earnings, earnings weren't bad. Revenues beat as well. They gave a weak revenue guide. Mark Benioff, the CEO on the call, said, quote, AI is not the fundamental elimination of SAS software as a service, but the fundamental extension of sas. They announced a buyback. Brin, you own the stock. Okay. It's been, as I said, a dramatic underperformer. It got cut today at Bernstein. They reiterate their sell rating, underperform the targets to 21. It was 255. How do you view this in the context of what's really happening with the debate over software and AI.
- [20:21]
Josh Brown
Yeah. So I'm a recent add to this stock. I bought it around 245 and if you listen to the call, which, which I did is that when you, when you bottom line it, why do I think the stock is down today is because their agent force is not monetizing in any, any way so far. And so versus like a Palantir. When Palantir switched from being purely I think government to really reshaping the company and going corporate, you saw just huge ramp up in their earnings and revenue growth. So we're not seeing that push through right now.
- [20:49]
Scott Wapner
How do you know you will?
- [20:50]
Josh Brown
Well, you don't know you will but, but where you, where you are seeing is like there is a narrative out there. When I say narrative there they're like SaaS is dead. You cannot compare Salesforce which if you are Dell or OpenAI or all these companies that have Salesforce, you're not going to take your confidential data and go like plop it into some startup fly by night CRM system or LLM. They're able to take your data and then make it much more efficient from an output. So I think it will happen. But it's incremental. It's incremental, right.
- [21:22]
Scott Wapner
What happened?
- [21:23]
I disagree, I disagree disagree with this. I think this company, it's a great company, I think it's in trouble and I just want to relate to people why I think it's so much bigger than Salesforce. Look at, look at some of the worst big software companies this year. Look at team down 30%, CRM down 28% which you're talking about. Adobe down 24, Asana down 28. They all have in common is they need to sell enterprise licenses to businesses that are starting to get by with fewer workers. Is nothing wrong with Salesforce's products. There's nothing not competitive about what they bring to an organization world customer. The problem is lower headcount in the future. Look at what the jobs number told us today. So I think that that is what Wall street is sniffing out. They're saying, well let me get the straight. Less workers means less seats, less seats means less.
- [22:17]
Look at the.
- [22:18]
Hold on one second. The biggest winners this year are the companies in the opposite direction. The AI enablers and the cybersecurity which I think is immune to this. Palantir up 100% the best software name. Oracle up 33. Crowd and Microsoft both up 20. So I think investors are placing bets on the AI enablers and they're trying to get out of these stocks that require huge headcounts in corporate America.
- [22:43]
I don't think it's. It's even just about headcount. It's, you know, companies that were used to using, let's just for argument's sake, say a Salesforce product. Now many of these businesses are using, you know, products from upstarts, cheaper, different. Maybe the mark. Well, maybe the market. Well, if you look at what's happening, by the way, not all SaaS company. I don't think the question is whether AI is killing SaaS, because not all SaaS companies are created equal. If you look at a Salesforce and Adobe versus a Snowflake and a MongoDB for example, just picking those, it's pretty stark. The performance of some versus the performance of others. It's not a. Across the board. Well, SAS is in trouble. It's just. Is the business somewhat being commoditized? Are margins at risk? Our business models being disrupted? Do moats no longer exist? Are revenue streams being threatened?
- [23:49]
Josh Brown
No.
- [23:49]
Scott Wapner
What do you mean, no?
- [23:50]
Josh Brown
No. Well, if you look at, we're talking About Salesforce, like MongoDB and Salesforce have nothing to do with each other. Okay. So it's like they're just in this basket. Just this basket have literally nothing to do with each other.
- [24:01]
Scott Wapner
I'm not, I'm not comparing them as apples to apples. I'm comparing software companies that are at the. The right spot.
- [24:11]
Josh Brown
Yeah.
- [24:11]
Scott Wapner
Within AI and ones who aren't. And for the reasons the ones are. And then the reasons the ones aren't. What you thought you had a moat around. Did Adobe have a moat? Maybe they thought they did, maybe they don't now.
- [24:23]
Josh Brown
Right.
- [24:23]
Scott Wapner
That's why the stock performance is what it was because AI has disrupted so many different things.
- [24:28]
Josh Brown
And why has I disrupted Adobe and already figma came out. We haven't talked about figma. Their earnings. They talk about, look, there's what's a Canvas Canva, you know, the other, the other company like Figment Adobe, you don't have your data in there. You can easily switch and you want to say the lowest price with the best output. I'm saying specifically on Salesforce, their margins. Margins went up. Okay. Like they're 10 consecutive quarters of margin. Their free cash flow is up 13%. They continue to make small acquisitions. They approved a $20 billion buyback and we'll see if that was a good use of funds. Right. Because you never know. But I think that where you want to look with Salesforce is their AI agentic is not free. Okay? And so 40% of their bookings with data, cloud and AI were from existing companies. So let's say someone cuts off a thousand workers of a hundred thousand workforce, but they're buying more of Salesforce's products. That's a higher revenue, higher margin product. So I just think there's a narrative around Salesforce that's getting lumped in. And so I just think that there's a floor here. I don't think the stock at 241 has much more downside.
- [25:36]
Bill Baruch
Salesforce and Adobe do have something in common. Growth by acquisition. And you know, I think Adobe to that point we did own that stock and I think it was last, early last year when it was overnight they put out the AI generation of a picture and Adobe was down 7% that day. That was the day of reckoning for Adobe. It's really never has looked back. And then from a, from an acquisition standpoint, Figma, that thing fell through. What was the breakup fee? $1 billion that they pay there. So I think that's where the difference is with a Mongo and a Snowflake and then you look back at CRM and in Adobe, you know, it's where old, old software that grew by acquisition and these newer softwares, they're not getting acquired, they're growing on their own.
- [26:14]
Scott Wapner
The elephant in the room is that it's a macro story. Salesforce themselves are bragging about having been able to let go 4,000 customer service employees. This is today. Why are they able to do that? Because their AI turns out to be pretty awesome. So nobody would dispute what you just said. I think you're going to be right, Brin. They should be able to sell more AI software and products because it's going to enable companies to shed users. The fly in the ointment is a lot of these SaaS companies need for there to be overall headcount growth amongst amongst SMB and large enterprise in order to make their numbers the rest this year next and they're not going to get it.
- [26:54]
You just said I think you're going to be right, Brin. But at the outset you said the.
- [26:57]
Profitability on the profitability of their products.
- [27:00]
But you said still disagree on the direction of this.
- [27:02]
I think from a macro perspective are large companies more likely to add headcount which would then lead to higher software sales? My answer is no. They might be more profitable but slower growing. Does Wall street like slower growing in the software space? Not really. Not so much. So I think, I think the company is great. I think the stock is going to be problematic because of this theme. And it's not the only one. There are lots of other companies facing this issue right now.
- [27:30]
All right, up next, Calls of the Day. We have a bold call in the streaming space today. We'll debate that. We do have an update to Josh's best stocks in the market. We have other moves to tell you about as well. We'll do it next.
- [27:44]
Josh Brown
As a salesperson, the search for the right buyer or buying groups can feel like you're endlessly sifting through leads and hoping they're ready to buy. Thankfully, LinkedIn Sales Navigator is more than just a tool. It's your strategic sales partner. LinkedIn Sales Navigator is a sales intelligence platform that helps professionals efficiently effectively prospect and engage high value customers, drive higher revenue and increase sales performance. Sales Navigator helps you target the right buyers, surface key signals such as job changes or which accounts you should prioritize, and shows you hidden allies so you can find those buyers that are most likely to convert. Whether you're looking for new clients or strengthening relationships of current accounts, LinkedIn Sales Navigator has new AI features designed to help sellers find the right people and get right to the right conversations, all at scale. Fueled by LinkedIn's 1 billion-member platform, Sales Navigator gives you the most up to date first party data, enabling you to unlock conversations with the people that matter. Ready to get right to the right conversations? Try LinkedIn Sales Navigator now with a 60 day free trial at LinkedIn.com Halftime Report. That's LinkedIn.com Halftime Report for a 60 day free trial. Terms and conditions apply.
- [28:44]
Scott Wapner
And now a next level moment from ATT Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident, but the vendor isn't responding. And International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. ATT 5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network will the job market bounce back from the recent weakness? Will the White House challenge the accuracy of the data, numbers and analysis of the critical August jobs report? Squawkbox tomorrow 8:30am Eastern streaming on CNBC.
- [29:42]
More moves from Brian Belsky just to get out of the way because they are in the software space. You added to Cyber we were just talking about that. Palo Alto and Checkpoint. You bought more.
- [29:50]
Brian Belsky
Dude, let's get it out of the way. We love Palo Alto.
- [29:53]
Scott Wapner
Love Palo Alto.
- [29:54]
Brian Belsky
Palo Alto. Remember Palo Alto was involved in buying Cyberark. Cyberark's a name in our smidcap portfolio. So we took all of our sold Cyberark, put half of it into Palo Alto, and then put half of it into doubling our size in check point. In our smid. Check point's a little bit cheaper. We missed CrowdStrike. Can't own everything, but during that timeframe, we had a full position in Palo Alto.
- [30:15]
Scott Wapner
We love that. I mean, if you missed CrowdStrike and you were so upset about it, the stocks 21% down this quarter.
- [30:22]
Brian Belsky
Are you giving me an idea? I like that.
- [30:24]
Scott Wapner
Okay, so you need me to give you that idea.
- [30:26]
Brian Belsky
You can't own everything. But, I mean, I think.
- [30:27]
Scott Wapner
How many shares can I put you down for?
- [30:30]
Brian Belsky
It'll be on the list for the end of the month.
- [30:32]
Josh Brown
How's that?
- [30:32]
Scott Wapner
No, seriously, like, look at some of the deeper slot. Palo Alto hasn't traded great. I mean, It's. But it's down 8% in a quarter versus the Fortnet, which is down 29. A crowd strikes down 21. The Zscaler is down 16.
- [30:45]
Brian Belsky
Yeah, we've owned Zscaler in the past. We would go back to CrowdStrike for sure, especially given where its contracts are and where its growth is. But it's definitely on our list. But we doubled down on Checkpoint because it's cheaper.
- [30:55]
Scott Wapner
Okay. Calls a day. Disney, certainly one of them. Outperform @wolf.139 is the target they're talking about. Disney's US streaming engagement could exceed Netflix's. You want to talk about from the Netflix standpoint. And now you could talk about it from the Disney standpoint point.
- [31:14]
Yeah, I don't know about exceeding Netflix, but I like both stocks. I'm long Netflix. I do not have a position in Disney. Technically. This thing's shaping up. Look, I probably should have bought this after this. Not the last earnings report, but the one before that. Because getting to profitability is something that only like three or four streaming companies probably will ever be able to do. And what that does, if you're Disney, is it puts you in a. In a power. In a power position unlike anything that Disney has been in for really a really long time. I think largely we used to cry about the succession issues. Nobody cares anymore. Getting to profitability on streaming was so key, given the billions of dollars that were being spent there. Some would say Fruitlessly. Well, now we're here, and I think the stock can work so long as that's the case. And I don't think it's a, a competition with Netflix. I think both are taking traditional cords and cutting them, and it's working in a huge way.
- [32:13]
Can you get 139 bucks on Disney?
- [32:15]
Brian Belsky
Oh, I think we get 125. 130, but I think we know that's.
- [32:19]
Scott Wapner
Why I see 139. That's what the call is.
- [32:21]
Brian Belsky
Okay, well, I would love 139, but I think the way to think about these stocks are you want to straddle this man. You want to be on this side. You want to be YouTube and Netflix, they're the monsters, they're the winner, they're the huge winners. They're the momentum, they're the fundamentals. Then you got Disney as kind of more your value play that is turning profitable, that has the content and can get it right. So that's the way that we're playing that. But from a positional standpoint, we're way overweight. Google and Netflix, relative to the Disney.
- [32:48]
Scott Wapner
Leidos, got upgraded today. Outperform at RBC.
- [32:52]
Bill Baruch
Yeah, cheap name. It's trading at 12 forward. Grew earnings 22% last quarter. And it gets a lot of revenue from the defense space. But it's starting to see things like health care really grow as well. You walk through the airports, you see them, you know, TSA lines. I mean, they got, they got swept away last year, late last year with the, the government spending crackdown. But they've bounced back really significantly, we like to say a lot.
- [33:15]
Scott Wapner
Give me real quick, Justin. I mean, quick. 3M. You still on the stock?
- [33:19]
Do you still like it?
- [33:19]
177 is the new target at Deutsche.
- [33:21]
This is a turnaround. It's not typically my type of of stock, but I'm in this with a very low cost basis. Stephanie was here first. Full credit to Ms. Link. But I think this is going to break out again. Stock has been consolidating throughout the course of the entire year. Sellers are being cleaned up. Series of higher lows, which is exactly what you want to see. And here you go. You see resistance about 160. I think she eats right through it like a hot knife through butter. I want to stay long here.
- [33:47]
All right, Silvana now has the headlines for us. Hi, Silvana.
- [33:49]
Josh Brown
Hey, Scott. Good afternoon. The Trump administration said today that it will not require airlines to compensate passengers for flight disruptions caused by the carriers. That's a reversal from the Department of Transportation under former President Biden, which launched a rulemaking process in December about whether airlines should be required to pay 200 to $300 for domestic delays. The US Citizenship and Immigration Services says its agents will now be able to arrest people for immigration violations. The US CIS said today the agent will be able to investigate fraud committed in immigration applications and arrest those involved, including lawyers. The agency's director said the move will not, quote, have a chilling effect on applications. And billionaire Julia Koch and members of the Koch family will reportedly buy a 10% stake in the New York Giants at a team valuation of $10 billion. That's according to Sportico. Now the deal would have to be approved by other NFL owners for it to be official. The Mara and Tisch families will continue to serve as the Giants majority owner.
- [34:57]
Scott Wapner
SCOTT all right, Silvana, thank you, Silvana. Now, next, Josh has his best stocks in the market update. We will discuss.
- [35:08]
Will the job market bounce back from the recent weakness? Will the White House challenge the accuracy of the data, numbers and analysis of the critical August jobs report? Squawk box tomorrow, 8:30am Eastern streaming on CNBC. Plus.
- [35:36]
Josh Brown's best stocks in the market list. You have the spotlight on a name we've talked about because it's been on the list. Why are we doing it again? EA Electronic Arts, Right.
- [35:46]
This has not been on the list. Was added on August 8th. Don't think I've mentioned it. I don't know if we do it.
- [35:54]
No, I was thinking of somebody else. I was thinking of Joe. I think Joe T. Owns it.
- [35:57]
Okay. I don't know if you guys, I.
- [36:00]
Don'T know what I'm thinking of, but.
- [36:01]
Video games are a pretty big deal.
- [36:02]
Let's restart this. Hey Josh, So there's best stocks in the market list on CNBC Pro. Your spotlight is on Electronic Arts. It's been on the list, I'm told, since August 6th.
- [36:12]
That's right, Scott. EA Alright. I have to give some credit to the lady sitting next to me. Bryn Talkington absolutely slayed with her call on Roblox and she put up with a lot of pessimism and cynicism throughout the entire time she owned it. Short sellers coming out against it, reports about child safety. Like every bearish thing that you could have thrown at roadblocks came out. She held it, she wrote it. That Stock is up 200% or triple over the last year. What is Roblox do that's so special? They have turned the community into guest developers on the platform. The in app Purchasing. They are the best version of a monetized video game platform that exists. EA looks at that and says, we have a real opportunity here. We have to go bigger. We can't just rely on the Madden franchise and the FIFA franchise, which is like, I don't know, a quarter of their earnings, maybe half their earnings. So they have this new game called Battlefield 6. This is a massive catalyst. On October 10th, they're flying some of the most important gaming influencers. Yes, that's a such thing.
- [37:19]
Bill Baruch
All over the world.
- [37:19]
Scott Wapner
Berlin, London, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, for this huge live launch of the new game. And it's way more than a game, it's a platform. For the first time ever, EA is going to have creators and individual players be able to contribute to the game, make their own content inside of the game, expand the universe that the game is played in. So think of a combination of Call of Duty and Fortnite to give you an idea of what's about to happen here. So the technicals are lining up. The stock has broken out. I think the next point of resistance is about 175, 180. If the name can break through that level, there are no sellers. I can imagine a scenario where over the next year or two it just grinds its way up to 200. It's a really well run company. Negative on this thing has always been its overreliance on Madden. If Battlefield 6 turns out to be a hit, a sustainable hit, this could be, this could be, in my, in my view, maybe not the next Roadblocks, percentage wise, but certainly directionally, people could start thinking about the name in those same terms.
- [38:26]
Josh Brown
I think where Roadblocks was so unique, it cost just a truckload to create a game and most games are unsuccessful. And so the uniqueness of Roadblocks is that the developers are creating the game and if more people go there, then the developers make more money. It's this amazing flywheel. So if EA is able to change the culture of the company because they spend a truckload of money developing games, but actually try to actually do a pivot, I think the market could take advantage. But let's see how much of a developer company it is. But I think it's a great call out of a name that's trying to capture some of that light.
- [38:59]
Scott Wapner
Here's the 11 year chart. You can see this stock pulled back to prior level of resistance at 160, which is now support. I think for traders, 160 is probably your floor. And then if you, if it breaks below, you can sit it out and wait for it to set back up again. I think investors should stand strong here. It's not terribly expensive and they're making an all company in bet on on this platform and I think think it has to work.
- [39:27]
All right. So is Next with his midday word. We're back right after this. All right, we're back. And so is football. CNBC's official NFL team valuations list for 2025 is out. Dallas Cowboys taking the top spot again this year. Look at that, 12 and a half billion dollars. You can go to cnbc.com sport for the whole list. Look, there's the giants on our list. 10 and a half billion dollars just said the state to the Koch family. We're at ten and a half billion. There you go. Our Mike Ozanian, by the way, is live in Philadelphia ahead of the Cowboys Eagles kickoff tonight. The big news around that. What a time to have an interview with Jerry Jones. 4:00 Eastern Time. Cannot wait for that. Now to another big sports event happening this month. Our friends at the Golf Channel following the Ryder cup and one more event to watch this weekend before all of that happens. Reporter Anna Jackson joins us now with the details. Hi, Anna.
- [40:47]
Anna Jackson
Thank you, Scott. Good afternoon. Yeah, Anna Jackson here with you with a preview of some of the big team competitions around the world of golf in the next few weeks. Now, first up, this Saturday will mark the beginning of the 50th Walker Cup. The competition this year is being held at the beautiful Cypress Point Club in California and brings together some of the best amateur golfers in the world, pitting Team USA against team Great Britain and Ireland. Now, one thing to note is the history of the Walker cup has heavily favored Team USA, who holds an all time record of 39, 9 1, which includes victories in the last four competitions. And coverage begins on Saturday at 12:30pm on Peacock. And on the professional circuit, it's the big one. We are just about three weeks away from the highly anticipated Ryder cup at Bethpage Black and over the last two weeks, the two 12 man teams have been finalised. So here is Team USA led by Captain Keegan Bradley. It is a stacked line up headlined by world number one, Scottie Scheffler. Bradley's lineup also featuring four rookies, including U.S. open champion J.J. spawn. And a quick look at the European team they will face in New York. A lot of experience for Team Europe as captain Luke Donald has 11 players returning from the victorious team he led in 2023 in Italy. And with just one, one new addition with Rasmus Hojgaard, who will be playing in his first Ryder Cup. So it is a big deal. Team Europe are all fired up to become the first team to win an away rider cup since 2012, when Europe pulled off a dramatic Sunday comeback at the Miracle at Medina. It should be a really exciting buildup over the next couple of weeks. Scott?
- [42:33]
Scott Wapner
Yeah, Anna, thank you. We're fired up. We're at home. We're in the New York area. By the way, be sure to follow the Ryder cup coverage beginning September 26th on the networks of NBC. By the way, moments ago, Apple CEO Tim Cook, we showed you him going into the White House ahead of tonight's dinner meeting with the president. Well, our cameras caught him leaving the White House just a short time ago. We were wondering what's he going to do for like seven hours at the White House. So maybe he's going to buy his time somewhere else.
- [43:03]
Grill.
- [43:04]
Yeah, I love that place.
- [43:05]
I'm saying that's what you do.
- [43:06]
Go get a crab cake and come back later. Up next, Santoli with his midday work. We're back. Senior markets commentator Mike Santol. He joins us with his midday word. So we had some data today and then the big one tomorrow, John Williams two Talking about Mao feels like he's leaning in the direction of he wants cuts, too.
- [43:34]
Yeah. When the market certainly wants them. And I think for three or four weeks I've been in this mode of saying the market wants a September rate cut. It doesn't want to need it. It wants it to be insurance cuts, wants to be good news cuts. You're mostly staying on the right side of that line, I guess with the underlying economic data. Definitely some slackening in the labor market numbers and that's what's solidifying the expectation for for September. But I think once we got into this period of saying we're likely to get a September cut, we're testing whether it's, you know, if, if it's medicine or it's not. And for now, I think, you know, it's nip and tuck. The bond market is kind of coming around to the idea that there might be genuine softness here. The 10 year yield almost breaking down to, you know, not too far from that April tariff panic trough. So I think it's still okay. I think there's a lot of spring loaded by potential for volatility in the bond and markets coming into tomorrow's numbers. So we'll see if if stocks follow. By the way, the S and P really is plus or minus, not very much from where it reached first on July 31st. So this has been, you know, basically a two month pause.
- [44:37]
Yeah. I'll see you on closing bell, Michael, thank you. That's Mike Santoli. Coming up, Brian Belsky, I think he bought Lululemon not that long ago from. Correct. Is that right? Yep. All right. Well you the value portfolio. We'll talk about that. Well, we will because you're already making a move in it, which is surprising. We'll tell you what it is next. All right. Lulu reports today after the bell portfolio management update, Brian Belsky, so you recently bought it and now you're trimming it in one portfolio.
- [45:12]
Brian Belsky
But overall, you know, the shenanigans off screen are amazing on this show. So we took it out of our any kind of focus money because there's operational issues with the company. We know that and we focused only on value. We think it's a value stock operationally.
- [45:24]
Scott Wapner
It's got a turnaround.
- [45:26]
Brian Belsky
We like it over the next 24 months. But over the next six months we think there's trouble. Barney Rubble.
- [45:31]
Scott Wapner
Okay, well, I like the explanation. See, see, there you go. The shenanigans lead to that.
- [45:35]
Brian Belsky
Yeah, exactly.
- [45:36]
Scott Wapner
It's all part of the process.
- [45:37]
Brian Belsky
It's all value add. It's all, all value add.
- [45:39]
Scott Wapner
Finals are next. The professor, Jeremy Siegel, three Eastern joined me closing bell. Dan Ives will be there. Michael Zanian with our list of updated NFL valuations as the season kicks off tonight. And the chef, Daniel Ballud, he's got a lot going on. New restaurant and he can talk about everything back to work. Inflation, tariffs and good eatin'. Final trades. Brian Belsky, what do you got?
- [46:08]
Brian Belsky
Raymond James, Financial rjf. Great combination of independent channel and company owned brokers is a great shop.
- [46:13]
Bill Baruch
Bill Baruch, Berkshire sentiment is shifting. A lot of support of 490.
- [46:19]
Scott Wapner
Brent Talkington with tennis racket in her bag. She's here for the open and on our set and we're happy about that.
- [46:25]
Josh Brown
Thank you, Apollo. They continue to grow fee related earnings and AUM and high. I like it in the 130.
- [46:31]
Scott Wapner
Josh Brown, Amazon E Commerce is going to be huge.
- [46:35]
All right, I'll see you on the belt. You've been listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast you can always catch us live weekdays at 12 Eastern only on CNBC.
- [46:49]
Josh Brown
All opinions expressed by the Halftime Report.
- [46:51]
Anna Jackson
Participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBCUniversal.
- [46:56]
Josh Brown
Their parent company or affiliates and may.
- [46:58]
Anna Jackson
Have been previously disseminated by them on.
- [47:00]
Josh Brown
Television, radio, Internet or another medium.
- [47:02]
Anna Jackson
You should not treat any opinion expressed.
- [47:04]
Josh Brown
On this podcast as a specific inducement.
- [47:06]
Anna Jackson
To make a particular investment or follow.
- [47:08]
Josh Brown
A particular strategy, but only as an.
- [47:11]
Anna Jackson
Expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information the.
- [47:14]
Josh Brown
Halftime Report participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries.
- [47:19]
Anna Jackson
Warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it.
- [47:21]
Josh Brown
Should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Halftime Report disclaimer.
- [47:24]
Anna Jackson
Please visit cnbc.com halftimereportdisclaimercom.
- [47:29]
Scott Wapner
Ahead of the NFL Season Kickoff Jerry Jones live and in person with Michael Ozanian on the Cowboys Rising valuation State of the NFL and the upcoming season closing bell overtime 4 Eastern today and streaming on CNBC.