CNBC Halftime Report: "Alphabet’s Mega Move"

Date: September 3, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Panel: Joe Terranova, Liz Thomas, Steve Weiss, Jim Lebenthal
Summary by Segment and Key Takeaways

Overview

This episode focuses on Alphabet's (Google's) dramatic stock move following a favorable antitrust court ruling, examining its impact on broader mega-cap tech, related sectors, and the overall market narrative. The panel discusses whether this news closes the longstanding valuation gap with other tech giants, implications for AI, regulatory overhangs, and sector rotation. Other topics include the outlook for Broadcom, the latest interest rate expectations, positioning within tech, and commentary on the NFL’s TV viewership measurement dispute.

Main Theme: Alphabet’s Antitrust Relief and Its Market Fallout

(00:46–03:19)

Alphabet’s Big Win: Court Ruling Fallout

• Scott Wapner opens with the day’s central theme: Alphabet’s sharp rally after a judge ruled it won’t have to be broken up, eliminating a major regulatory overhang.
• Jim Lebenthal highlights the stock’s recovery:
  "A meaningful overhang has been taken out of the name … Now the overhang’s gone and what you’ve got is a stock that’s trading at the low 20s ... this is going to be an AI beneficiary." (02:09)
• Alphabet is now up 39.5% since the "Eddy Q sell off" in May.
• The panel agrees the risk of draconian regulatory action proved overblown.

(03:19–06:43)

Debate: Does Alphabet's Valuation Discount Close Now?

• Scott: With Alphabet’s forward PE lower than Amazon and Microsoft, does the relief on antitrust risk narrow the valuation gap?
• Joe Terranova:
  "This is removing a significant obstacle ... I believe there’s further upside potential here ... You look at the sum of the parts ... you can easily see this as a $3 trillion company." (04:25)
• Steve Weiss: Notes Alphabet has historically traded at a discount but the end of regulatory scrutiny gives it "multiple levers to drive revenue" (06:43), suggesting possible Gmail price hikes now that antitrust glare has faded.

(06:43–10:09)

Value Comparisons; AI, Competition, & Search

• Google’s size and deep AI history cited as long-term competitive advantages.
• Jim: Compares Alphabet's situation to Meta’s past, noting the potential for both multiple expansion and earnings growth, albeit the situations are “apples and oranges” since their business issues differ. (09:15)

(10:09–11:16)

Impact on Mega Cap Tech and Broader Trade

• Liz Thomas:
  "It removes one of the skepticisms that people might have had about current valuation levels ... but what’s happening in the rest of the market, especially with yields, is probably pressuring them as well." (10:09)
• She sees the recent shakeout as “pretty healthy,” rationalizing tech valuations amid shifting yields and inflation expectations.

Other Key Market Topics and Segments

(11:16–12:44)

Apple’s Windfall from the Google Ruling

• Apple benefits as the court ruling allows Google to keep paying billions to be the default search engine.
• Scott: "Morgan Stanley today says it’s the near best case scenario for Apple and should be a clearing event for that stock."
• Joe: "I think you will see that valuation spread narrow because I do Believe Alphabet will catch up to Apple... Apple is going to be more of a staircase, move higher..." (12:04)

(12:44–16:51)

The Next Test for the AI Trade: Broadcom Earnings Preview

• Focus shifts to whether Broadcom's upcoming earnings will reinforce or weaken confidence in the ongoing AI rally.
• Joe: "I think this one’s a coin toss ... they are vital, delivering the integrated circuits that allow the chips collaboratively to work together. And that is vital." (13:24)
• Weiss: Broadcom’s valuation seems “excessive” from a cash flow perspective, noting it’s as much a commodity business as a growth stock. He prefers Taiwan Semi given recent trade policy uncertainties. (14:45–16:51)

(16:51–22:52)

Sector Rotation: Rebalance from Semis to Software/Cyber?

• UBS urges "rebalancing tech exposure away from large cap semiconductors and towards AI laggards" such as defensive software/cybersecurity.
• Liz: "I happen to agree with this statement. ... software, when compared to semiconductors, was left behind or at least trailed last year ... this was the time when software could shine; it was time for all these promises for AI to be put into action. That hasn’t really materialized..." (18:09–19:04)
• Weiss: Disagrees on cyber, calling most names expensive ("makes Broadcom look like it’s being given away" 20:17). Points to crowdstrike and Zscaler’s lofty multiples.
• Discussion of Salesforce and Adobe as potentially undervalued, "truly defensive" software laggards.

(22:52–25:16)

China Tech: Are Investors Missing the Opportunity?

• UBS: Investment case for China tech remains intact despite U.S. export restrictions; Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu all up dramatically over past month.
• Weiss: "Baba is the cheapest. ... they could be a leader in AI for sure, you know, because they’ve got the balance sheet to do it and that’s what it takes, balance sheet." (24:02)
• Joe: Laments selling Alibaba, suggests the valuation could stretch to $150.

(25:28–28:12)

Breaking News: Presidential Comments on Tariff Authority

• Eamon Javers covers President’s statements on using tariffs as a tool, pending Supreme Court decision, and potential rollback of trade agreements.
• President: "If we didn’t have the power, prestige and dignity of tariffs ... people respect America again ... money coming in is incredible." (25:58–26:09)
• Unilateral authority on tariffs central to President’s agenda; if lost, would need to rely on Congress or convoluted executive authority.

(31:12–34:34)

Citi’s Turnaround: Still Cheap Versus Peers?

• Jim Lebenthal: "The stock now trades just a hair under tangible book value ... There is really no reason that there should be any discount to tangible book value at Citigroup. They've been right sizing ... there's a catalyst coming up in the soon to be spun out Ban AMEX IPO..." (31:12)
• Record of Jane Fraser as CEO discussed: Citigroup now the best performing major bank year to date, up 52% over 12 months.

(36:07–39:15)

ETF Edge: Reallocating for the AI and Rate Cut Cycles

• ETF Edge (Leslie Picker & Bryant VanCronkhite):
  VanCronkhite is not convinced the Fed will cut immediately, but expects it soon, sees the "next leg" for winners in industrials and materials as money moves from "very narrow set of companies" (mega-cap tech) to CapEx beneficiaries:
  "We want to begin to move capital from tech into industrials, into materials and let that be the next leg of our winter trade." (38:06)

(40:03–42:23)

NFL vs. Nielsen: TV Ratings Under Fire

• NFL claims Nielsen undercounts its TV audience, which could have significant implications for future rights deals.
• Julia Boorstin:
  "The NFL wants to make sure its rights are accurately valued, and the way to know that is to have really specific data ... people are now watching broadcast tv ... on so many different platforms." (41:18)

(43:38–45:09)

Mike Santoli: Market Holds Up While Tech Leads

• "Alphabet and Apple holding up the S&P and the Nasdaq, light pressure on the rest of the market ..." (43:38)
• Bond market reacts to labor data; Fed rate cut expectations remain central: "It feels as if the bar is pretty high for steering away from a September quarter point cut..." (44:35)

Notable Quotes

• Jim Lebenthal:
  "This is Google, a multitrillion dollar company that has been at AI for a long, long time ... They have a viable product that's showing up, by the way, in their quarterly results." (02:09)
• Joe Terranova:
  "I believe there’s further upside ... one can think about this company trading with a market cap exceeding $3 trillion very easily." (04:25)
• Liz Thomas:
  "Software, when compared to semiconductors, was left behind ... this was the time when software could shine ... That hasn't really materialized." (18:09–19:04)
• Steve Weiss on cyber stocks:
  "When you get Crowdstrike trading at over 100 times earnings ... I don't know how you put new money in there." (20:17)
• Scott Wapner on Apple:
  "Morgan Stanley today says it's the near best case scenario for Apple and should be a clearing event for that stock." (11:16)
• President (on tariffs):
  "If we didn't have the power, prestige and dignity of tariffs ... we'd be a third world nation." (26:04–26:21)

Key Timestamps

• 00:46–03:19: Opening; Alphabet court decision analysis
• 03:19–06:43: Valuation gap discussion
• 10:09–11:16: Broader mega-cap tech implications
• 12:44–14:45: Broadcom earnings & AI outlook
• 16:51–20:08: Sector rotation: software, cyber vs. semis debate
• 22:52–25:16: China tech as AI play
• 25:28–28:12: Presidential tariff news
• 31:12–34:34: Citi's turnaround and value
• 36:07–39:15: ETF Edge: investing for rate cut/AI cycle
• 40:03–42:23: NFL rating dispute
• 43:38–45:09: Market overview & Fed expectations

Tone and Style Notes

• Language is lively, direct, and occasionally combative—consistent with the show’s energetic, fast-paced exchanges.
• The panel isn’t shy about disagreeing or pointing out shortcomings in consensus narratives.
• Frequent references to recent trading history and valuation metrics, keeping the discussion anchored in real-time market action.

Conclusion

Alphabet’s victory over breakup demands has reinvigorated the mega-cap tech narrative, potentially narrowing valuation discounts and providing room for further AI-driven expansion. Yet, panelists caution that sectoral shifts, high valuations in semis and cyber, and global macro-policy issues require caution. Apple rides Alphabet’s win, while sector rotation and international opportunities (especially in China tech) are gaining renewed attention. The stage is set for a high-stakes fall, with all eyes on rate cuts, earnings, and the ever-complex AI trade.