CNBC Halftime Report — “Analyzing the Huge Week Ahead for the Markets”

Date: January 26, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests/Investment Committee: Joe Terranova, Steve Weiss, Jim Lebenthal
Episode Theme: A pivotal week ahead featuring mega-cap tech earnings, a Fed decision, volatile global market dynamics, and a looming government shutdown.

Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report dives into the highly anticipated week for markets with the upcoming Federal Reserve decision, major tech company earnings (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple), and a potential government shutdown. Scott Wapner leads the panel in examining what’s at stake, how big tech’s quarterly results could drive investor sentiment, and the signals coming from gold, bonds, and international markets. The conversation is fast-paced and occasionally contentious, providing valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: An Unusually Volatile Week

• Market Backdrop: Markets are mostly up, except the Russell, which is pulling back after a strong run. Gold climbs above $5,100 for the first time and is now larger than the dollar as a global reserve asset.
• Key Events This Week:
  • Fed meeting/decision (Wednesday): Markets expect no rate movement.
  • Mega-cap tech earnings: Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla (Wednesday); Apple (Thursday).
  • Government shutdown deadline (Friday): Prediction markets estimate a 78–90% risk of shutdown.
• Quote:
  “The critical week ahead for the markets as big tech earnings and the Fed meeting are looming…Gold has overtaken the dollar as the largest global reserve asset. That’s certainly notable.”
  — Scott Wapner [01:02]

2. Gold, Currencies, and International Trends

• Gold’s Rally: Seen both as a speculative momentum trade and a hedge against currency risk. Central banks (e.g., Poland) are buying gold, diversifying away from the dollar and bonds.
• Emerging Markets Outperforming: EEM at all-time highs; average country ETF up 6.5% YTD vs. the S&P 500’s 1%.
• Sell America Trade?: Panel discusses the resurgence of global and emerging markets, some questioning if “Sell America” is back in vogue.
• Quote:
  “Volatility is giving you opportunity.”
  — Joe Terranova [02:31]
  “There’s vestiges of the ‘Sell America’ trade…But for me, longer term, to me it’s always Buy America.”
  — Steve Weiss [04:01]

3. The US Market: Risks and Rotation

• Risks for a Pullback: Panelists see elevated market risk for a ~5% correction, driven by either a surprisingly hawkish Fed or disappointing earnings, especially in sectors beyond big tech.
• Tech vs. The Rest: Recent lackluster trading in Microsoft, Meta, and Apple raises questions about whether investors will buy dips or use rallies to sell.
• Quote:
  “I do think in the near term there is risk to the market of a drawdown. 5% maybe…The S&P was down for the last two weeks.”
  — Steve Weiss [05:28]

4. Big Tech Earnings: Make-or-Break Catalyst?

• Debate Over Mega-Cap Earnings: Will strong results re-invigorate the Mag 7 and spark a new tech rally, or are investors more likely to rotate elsewhere even on beats?
• Differing Viewpoints:
  • Jim Lebenthal: Earnings will be good but share price responses could remain muted; investors might use any “pop” to exit positions where they’ve been underwater.
  • Joe Terranova: Believes good enough results will reignite the Mag 7’s leadership, pushing equal-weight and small-cap outperformance back into the shadows.
• Quote:
  “Let me just state it again. Earnings reports are going to be good for those three [Microsoft, Meta, Apple]. I would not expect a robust share price response.”
  — Jim Lebenthal [08:59]
  “If these stocks are good enough…Here goes Mag 7 taking the lead once again.”
  — Joe Terranova [11:48]

5. The Underlying Tensions: Trapped Investors, Capex Dilemmas, and Sector Bets

• Capex and Hyper-scalers: Continued debate on whether increased capital spending (especially in AI/cloud) helps or hinders tech stock prices.
• Software vs. Semiconductors: Market sees a persistent divergence. Some expect mean reversion if Microsoft surprises, while consensus expects semis to outperform software in the long-run.
• Notable Trend: Investors may be “trapped” (underwater) in mega-cap names after recent highs but remain divided on whether exits are imminent.
• Quote:
  “The divergence is likely to persist as AI moves beyond the narrow ‘SaaS disruption’ and opens an entirely new total addressable market…”
  — Scott Wapner reading Melius note [17:57]
  “That’s the consensus…But going against the consensus is probably the more profitable thing to do.”
  — Joe Terranova [18:43]

6. Portfolio Moves & Sector Calls

Financials: JPMorgan vs. Goldman Sachs

• Joe Terranova: Sells out of JPMorgan, citing underperformance and the dangers of consensus trades; holds Goldman Sachs instead.
  • “But it goes back to consensus—and consensus has been the wrong move over the last 18 months.” [22:00]
• Jim Lebenthal: Agrees that there is no such thing as a “forever stock.”
  • “There is no such thing as a forever stock... that can lock you into things that you wish you got out of.” [24:29]

Energy & Materials

• Joe Terranova: Adds to OIH (oilfield services ETF) due to strong sector momentum and belief in diversified exposure.
  • “Energy is starting off the year as one of the strongest sectors…The OIH I think is the right way to get some diversified exposure to the oil names.” [28:52]
• Jim Lebenthal: Sees stabilization in oil prices, with opportunity created by negative sentiment and recent winter storms.
  • “There was just all the bad news priced in. And it left room for oil and natural gas to move up… These companies make a lot of money, particularly with natural gas at $6.” [30:22]

Defense Stocks

• Steve Weiss: Highlights negative reaction in defense space after Booz Allen contract cancellation; sees opportunity in Leidos post-acquisition.
  • “Leidos made a great acquisition today, immediately accretive… By the time the company reports or after reports, it’s going to be over 200.” [44:46]
• Jim Lebenthal: Stresses geopolitical tailwinds keep defense sector attractive.
  • “He is saying that in the defense spending that he wants to project… this will all inure to the benefit of the defense companies across the board.” [45:07]

7. Midday Word with Mike Santoli (Senior Markets Commentator) [40:13]

• Observations: Despite sharp moves in gold, currencies, and commodities, both bond and stock volatility remain low. Potential for “unrecognized linkages” to spark volatility elsewhere.
• Quote:
  “What’s striking to me too is the way that you have these massive wild, spring-loaded moves in parts of the asset complex and bond and stock volatility are just asleep.” — Mike Santoli [40:21]
• Late Cycle?
  • Joe asks if we are late cycle, referencing 2007.
  • Santoli: “Could stay late for a long time…unemployment seems to have bottomed…the Fed’s terminal rate is probably in sight…market thinks less than 2 cuts this year and you’re probably done.” [41:52]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market Rotation & 'Sell America':
  • “If you’re a portfolio manager…sure, you should have [emerging markets] allocation. If you’re pure alpha…fine. But for me, longer term…Buy America.” — Steve Weiss [04:01]
• On Emotional Investing:
  • “That’s like blasphemy on trading desks. Why did you [sell JPM]? I don’t get emotional about this.” — Scott Wapner & Joe Terranova [21:49–21:52]
• On No-Forever Stocks:
  • “Nothing is a forever stock…look at Berkshire Hathaway. Imagine if I had sold it a year ago. It would have been the right thing to do.” — Jim Lebenthal [24:08]
• On Energy Sector Surge:
  • “Materials and energy…that really has been the story so far year to date. Kudos to Tom Lee on that by the way.” — Joe Terranova [29:34]
• On Cycles and Calm Markets:
  • “It could stay late for a long time. I think we've all learned that in past cycles.” — Mike Santoli [42:16]

Key Timestamps

• 00:55: Scott Wapner opens, frames the critical market week ahead.
• 02:31: Joe Terranova: Gold’s rally, volatility, implications for hedging.
• 04:01: Steve Weiss: “Sell America” trade and international allocation views.
• 08:00: Jim Lebenthal: Expectations for tech earnings and investor reactions.
• 11:48: Joe Terranova & Jim push back on post-earnings selling thesis.
• 22:00: Joe Terranova: Selling JPMorgan, the fallibility of consensus trades.
• 28:52: Joe Terranova: Rationale for buying OIH (oilfield services ETF).
• 30:22: Jim Lebenthal: View on crude oil and natural gas post-winter storm.
• 40:21: Mike Santoli: Midday Word—unusual asset volatility and late cycle risks.
• 44:46: Steve Weiss: Booz Allen/defense stock volatility and Leidos deal.

Panel’s Final Trades [46:13]

• Jim Lebenthal: BlackRock (“going to benefit as everything rallies”)
• Steve Weiss: GLD (“momentum continues in gold”)
• Joe Terranova: Thermo Fisher

Segment Summaries

International Markets & Gold

• International stock markets, gold, and emerging markets outpace the US so far in 2026—panelists discuss the underlying causes and durability.

Mega-Cap Tech’s Tipping Point

• The team debates whether upcoming mega-cap earnings will revive tech leadership or continue the drift toward equal-weight, small-cap, and international outperformance.

Energy & Materials Ascendance

• Ongoing strength in oil and materials stocks, with some benefiting from weather-driven price spikes and reversion of negative sentiment.

Financial Sector Positioning

• Shift away from JPMorgan reflects both tactical sector rotation and skepticism about the “forever stock” mentality.

Defense Sector Under Pressure

• News-driven volatility (Booz Allen contracts, Leidos deal) considered more “noise” than a true fundamental issue for the sector.

Market Structure & Volatility

• Despite pockets of extreme moves (e.g. gold, yen, natural gas), broad equity and bond volatility indexes remain low; late cycle caution noted.

Conclusion

This episode sets the tone for a week brimming with potential catalysts: central bank policy, tech behemoth earnings, and fiscal brinksmanship in Washington. The discussion balances the tactical (positions in banks, oil, defense) with the strategic (market cycle, sector rotation, global leadership), giving listeners a nuanced picture of risks and opportunities as volatility rises and consensus gets challenged.

For listeners or readers, this summary recaps the essential insights and quotable moments—offering a clear view of where leading investors are positioning as one of 2026’s pivotal weeks unfolds.