Halftime Report – “Assessing the Rally” (January 8, 2026)

Host: Scott Wapner (CNBC)
Panel: Josh Brown, Jenny Harrington, Bill Baruch, Surat Sethi

Overview

This CNB Halftime Report episode dives into the evolving landscape of the 2026 stock market rally—specifically, the notable outperformance of everything except tech so far this year. Host Scott Wapner leads a spirited conversation with top investors, dissecting the rotation into small caps, financials, and industrials; rebalancing strategies; the prospects for mega-cap tech and key individual names; and broader structural factors underpinning market performance.

Key debates include the difference between major small-cap indices, the outlook for Alphabet and Meta, metal and materials positioning, and a special guest segment on prediction markets with Interactive Brokers founder Thomas Peterffy. The team closes with sector spotlights, technicals, and their top stock ideas for the rest of the day.

Major Themes and Insights

1. Market Breadth and the “Everything-But-Tech” Rally

(Segment starts ~01:01)

• Scott Wapner: Opens by highlighting the strong start to 2026 for the Dow, S&P, and Russell (small caps), but with the Nasdaq lagging. The Russell 2000 hits a new all-time high, up nearly 4% to start the year.

• Bill Baruch: Shares their increased and now partially-rebalanced small cap (IJR ETF) position. Notes recent profit-taking and maintenance of flexibility for first-quarter opportunities and possible volatility related to upcoming jobs data and Supreme Court rulings.

  “You need to make your money in the first quarter. I think the year could really level out from April to November..." – Bill Baruch (02:05)

Discussion:

• Rotation away from mega-cap tech is viewed positively for market health and opportunity.

2. Small Cap Index Nuances and Market Risk Appetite

(~05:41)

• Jenny Harrington: Appreciates the broadening market and notes that different small cap indexes (S&P 600 vs. Russell 2000) have very different make-ups and require careful homework.

  “You can't just say I want to own small cap and choose any old index. You have to do the work…” – Jenny Harrington (06:26)

• Josh Brown: Expounds on how the S&P 600 only includes profitable companies, creating a safer profile compared to the “junkier” Russell 2000 with its higher concentration of unprofitable biotechs and startups. Suggests the “alpha” opportunity is shifting beyond tech leadership.

  “Most investors would have to conclude...do I have enough on the other side of the barbell? Most would have to say, no, I actually don’t.” – Josh Brown (07:59)

3. Seasonality and 2026 Outlooks

(~08:21)

• Scott Wapner: Relays market outlooks referencing historical trends and the possibility of a non-linear year with possible mid-year correction.

• Surat Sethi: Emphasizes the rising importance of quality and earnings growth, barbell strategies, and selectivity.

  “You want to be in the areas where it's not just multiple expansion, it's earnings growth and its company being recognized as we go through this period of a little more uncertainty globally.” – Surat Sethi (10:27)

• Panel consensus: This will be a tactical, stock-picker’s market—buy-and-hold S&P 500 as a strategy may not be enough after recent years’ strong index performance.

4. Earnings, Valuations, and Internal Logic

(~11:07)

• Josh Brown: Explains last year’s multiple contraction for large caps despite stellar earnings growth, contrasting with overseas markets where sentiment, not earnings, drove multiples higher. Points to current margin differences explaining small/mid/large cap rerating potential.

  “We’re not just willy nilly putting a 22 multiple on the S&P 500 for no reason. Those companies have the best earnings growth and the biggest profit margins…” – Josh Brown (11:54)

5. Alphabet (Google) vs Meta (Facebook): Comeback Stories and AI Dynamics

(~12:59)

• Scott Wapner: Notes Alphabet surpassing Apple in market cap for the first time since 2019. Discusses upgrades based on Gemini AI advances.

• Surat Sethi & Bill Baruch: Both own Alphabet as a top holding but warn about valuation after a big run. Bill recounts buying last May despite skepticism from others on the desk.

  “At some point the valuation that it is seeing right here could be a little headwind to continued growth.” – Bill Baruch (14:47)

• Jenny Harrington: Cautions that despite Gemini’s promise, it’s too early to judge how AI will affect monetization and search profitability. Still prefers Meta for “assurance in earnings growth.”

  “I really do still worry about the profitability of search in the future with AI...it’s way too early for anything regarding AI to be proven out yet.” – Jenny Harrington (16:45)

• Panel: Debates Meta vs Alphabet, noting that Meta has reliable ad monetization through Reels, but skepticism remains about Zuckerberg’s spending and new projects catching on.

6. Policy, Real Estate, and Regulatory Risk

(~21:15)

• Scott Wapner: Reacts to social media speculation about banning institutional investors from buying single-family homes. Invitation Homes, Blackstone drop sharply.

• Josh Brown: Stresses the difference between political “tweets” and real policy changes, but acknowledges the risk of regulatory shifts in public housing.

  “We have to differentiate between tweets and policy...Any time that becomes a political issue in the headlines, we absolutely see a reaction in any of the institutions...” – Josh Brown (21:52)

7. Metals, Commodities, and Materials: Rebalancing Moves

(~25:15)

• Bill Baruch: Notes trimming gold/silver/miners after sharp runs, citing signs of froth and exchange margin hikes. Still bullish long-term but wants dry powder for future moves.

• Jenny Harrington: Sells Anglo American in income portfolios due to dividend cut and strategic uncertainty, holding onto Freeport and Rio Tinto for diversified exposure.

  “The cash flow is going to continue to increase and be an amazing driver of margins going forward. But...if you’re not locking in monetizing some of the move that you saw last year, you’re probably doing it wrong.” – Bill Baruch (25:29)

8. Prediction Markets: Debate with Thomas Peterffy (Interactive Brokers)

(~31:32)

• Topic: Growth of markets to bet on real-world events (polls, economic indicators, climate, even wars).

• Thomas Peterffy: Defends prediction markets as serious, efficient ways to aggregate consensus on critical future questions; acknowledges risk of frivolous bets and the need for ongoing regulation.

  “These markets will be much, much larger than the securities market because...it’s all the questions about our future.” – Thomas Peterffy (38:55)

• Josh Brown: Agrees prediction markets have a place, especially as indicators, but draws a clear line between long-term investment and frequent, zero-sum betting.

  “There’s a distinction that should be drawn.” – Josh Brown (39:10)

9. Best Stocks in the Market: Energy Sector Spotlight

(~41:16)

• Josh Brown: Highlights Valero (refiner), Baker Hughes (services), and sector stalwarts like SLB as top technical setups amidst recent volatility. Cautions against knee-jerk trades on news-driven pops (e.g. Chevron).

  “Let’s give it a couple of days...because Judge, you raised the right point.” – Josh Brown (42:23)

• Surat Sethi & Bill Baruch: Like integrated names (Chevron, Exxon) and select service providers for diversification and cash flow; energy’s defensive position is noted.

10. Stock Moves: Uber and Market Structure

(~44:23)

• Panel: All panelists currently own Uber. Debate centers on continued revenue growth, free cash flow, platform’s value regardless of autonomous technology disruptions, and risk of crowding/valuation.

  “For as far future as I can see—the next two or three, four years—there is tremendous earnings growth. There is tremendous, tremendous free cash flow generation.” – Jenny Harrington (46:04)

  “Nothing would be better for Uber than an autonomous future where a quarter to a third to half the rides on their platform are being driven by Nvidia powered machines...They are the demand aggregator.” – Josh Brown (47:25)

11. Final Trades

(~48:57)

• Surat Sethi: Morgan Stanley – “Great tailwinds in the wealth management business.”
• Bill Baruch: Leidos – “Chart is almost as beautiful as the balance sheet. Look out above 200.”
• Jenny Harrington: Enterprise Products Partners (EPD) – “If you like energy but don’t want commodity price exposure. 6.9% yield.”
• Josh Brown: Amazon – “Bucking the tech trend, going higher. Stock looks great.”

Notable Quotes & Time Stamps

• “You need to make your money in the first quarter. I think the year could really level out from April to November...”
  Bill Baruch (02:05)

• “There is going to be a much more tactical kind of year than...just look at [the S&P] at the end of the year and you’re up 15–20%.”
  Scott Wapner (10:01)

• “Most investors would have to conclude...do I have enough on the other side of the barbell? Most would have to say, no, I actually don’t.”
  Josh Brown (07:59)

• “You can't just say I want to own small cap and choose any old index. You have to do the work…”
  Jenny Harrington (06:26)

• “Nothing would be better for Uber than an autonomous future where a quarter to a third to half the rides...are being driven by Nvidia powered machines. Doesn’t matter who owns them...What matters is Uber’s ticket rate goes up because there’s not a human driver necessarily doing every ride.”
  Josh Brown (47:25)

• “These markets will be much, much larger than the securities market because...it’s all the questions about our future.”
  Thomas Peterffy (38:55)

Key Timestamps

• 01:01 – Show open; “everything but tech rally”
• 02:05 – Small cap ETF positioning (Baruch and Harrington analysis)
• 05:41 – Small cap index differences (Brown, Harrington)
• 08:21 – 2026 market outlooks, seasonality, “tactical year” theme
• 12:59 – Alphabet’s comeback, AI debate, Meta vs Google showdown
• 21:15 – Institutional home buying and political risk
• 25:15 – Metals/materials: rebalancing and sector trims
• 31:32 – Prediction markets: Peterffy vs. Brown
• 41:16 – Energy sector spotlights (Valero, Baker Hughes)
• 44:23 – Uber: growth, valuation, crowding, platform value
• 48:57 – Final trades roundup

Tone & Language

The episode is analytical, candid, and fast-paced, marked by good-natured panelist banter but serious underlying debates on positioning, risk, and sector rotation. The prevailing tone is pragmatic: data-driven tactical awareness is repeatedly stressed over simplistic “buy the index” optimism.

Summary Takeaway

The 2026 market is opening with a broadening rally, spearheaded by sectors outside of big tech. The panel agrees: selection, valuation discipline, and adaptive strategies trump broad bets. Key debates about risk (small cap index construction), rebalancing (metals, tech giants), and disruptive market structures (prediction markets, policy risk) frame the agenda for investors looking for above-market returns in a shifting landscape.