CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary
Episode: Awaiting the Fed Decision 9/17/25
Date: September 17, 2025
Host: Frank Holland (in for Scott Wapner)
Panel: Joe Terranova, Liz Thomas, Steve Weiss, Jim Lebenthal
Featured Reporter: Steve Liesman
Overview
This episode centers on the markets’ anticipation of a pivotal Federal Reserve interest rate decision scheduled for later in the day. With stocks near record highs and speculation rife, the Halftime investment committee and CNBC’s senior economics reporter Steve Liesman dissect expectations for the Fed, potential dissents, implications for sectors, and broader market reactions. The discussion also covers recent IPO activity, earnings momentum, sector leadership, and notable stock calls.
Key Discussion Points
1. Fed Decision: Possible Scenarios & Market Expectations
(01:07–06:06)
- Consensus Expectation: The committee overwhelmingly anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, with little chance of a more aggressive (50 bps) move.
- Dissents Are Likely:
- Joe Terranova (02:27): “We potentially could get three dissents. That’s the first time since 1988…the dissents will be regarding…a 50 basis point cut.”
- Market Confidence:
- Steve Liesman highlights the market’s “confidence in the cut today and two more this year” (03:19).
- Fed Signaling Channels:
Liesman identifies three:- Level of concern for weak jobs vs. sticky inflation (04:16).
- Changes to the “dot plot” (members’ rate projections).
- Noting potential dissents, both dovish and hawkish (04:28).
2. Fed Chair Powell’s Messaging: Hawkish or Dovish?
(04:49–06:06)
- Liesman expects Jay Powell to “try to be measured” and deliver “the minimum of what [markets] want” while maintaining flexibility.
- Inflation concerns, especially regarding tariffs, limit the Fed’s willingness to promise further cuts—a tension highlighted by strong retail sales data and conflicting GDP projections.
3. Dot Plot & Market Signal Analysis
(06:25–07:34)
- Liz Thomas: The dot plot is likely to look “more dovish,” signaling more cuts in 2025. The crucial market-moving event would be if projections show more rate cuts in 2026 or higher expected unemployment.
4. Sector & Market Reactions to Fed Policy
(07:34–13:54)
- Market Psychology & “Don’t Fight the Fed”:
- Steve Weiss (07:59): “This market...is only concerned with direction and feeds off direction…You don’t fight the Fed, pure and simple.”
- Possibility of a ‘Sell-The-News’ Reaction:
- Jim Lebenthal (09:59): “I have never been more bored in advance of a Fed meeting than this one.”
- Broadening the Rally:
- Committee debates whether rate cuts will catalyze movement into cyclicals, small caps, and equal-weighted indices.
- Joe: “You get the broadening out in large cap financials and industrials…” but doesn’t see small caps leading just yet (11:22).
- Liz: “Small caps don’t start shining until you’re…200 basis points into a rate cut cycle, because that’s usually paired with a recession.” (15:27)
5. Fed Independence Concerns
(15:48–19:32)
- Concerns raised by Ken Griffin and Roger Ferguson about the risk to Fed independence and possible market impacts.
- Joe Terranova (18:19): “As a citizen, you look at it and there’s an obvious, obvious concern about Fed independence. Then you look at it from the market’s perspective…the market’s telling you right now it doesn’t really seem concerned.”
6. Earnings Momentum & IPO Activity
(19:32–25:06)
- Strong earnings estimates for 2026 (Bank of America forecasting 10% growth).
- Jim Lebenthal (19:46): “Not if you’re getting 14% earnings growth. Now the question is, will you really get that?”
- Capital markets and IPO activity reviving, but new listings fall back after initial pops.
- Liz Thomas (23:33): “Maybe we get a little ahead of ourselves…We should be happy that there’s a revival. But maybe we get a little ahead of ourselves just because we have hype around an IPO.”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On the Fed Meeting’s Predictability:
- Jim Lebenthal (09:59): “I have never been more bored in advance of a Fed meeting than this one…this is the most telegraphed 25 basis point rate cut that I’ve ever known.”
- On Market Breadth & Concentration:
- Steve Weiss (12:54): “If you take a look at the Mag 7 you don’t really need the broadening. That’s where the performance has been.”
- On IPO Mania:
- Jim Lebenthal (24:21): “IPOs are not my cup of tea as an investor…there are fundamental reasons that certain investors will like these companies.”
Sector & Stock Highlights
1. Robo-Taxi Wars: Lyft vs. Uber
(27:43–32:32)
- Waymo (Alphabet) partners with Lyft to launch robo-taxi in Nashville, sending Lyft shares up ~13%, Uber down ~5%.
- Joe Terranova (28:02): “There’s an opportunity here, I believe, for a trade with Lyft…This partnership is good. It kind of puts them back in a headline which they were not participating in.”
- Steve Weiss (29:24): "This is at this point, nothing more than competitive tension…Lyft is slightly ahead in this news."
- Weiss and Terranova agree Uber is still the sector leader, but Lyft’s news is “a good story” for traders.
2. Streaming Stocks: Netflix & Disney
(38:04–39:55)
- Lube Capital upgrades Netflix; stock rallies on live event bets.
- Steve Weiss (38:04): “Netflix is most product. I think stock is reasonably valued here and is upside…a permanent compounder.”
- Disney also gets bullish attention; ESPN’s streaming expansion cited.
- Jim Lebenthal (39:06): “Streaming is profitable…Earnings estimates already creeping up higher. I think that will continue.”
3. Retail & Healthcare Calls: Walmart, AbbVie
- Walmart hits all-time highs, praised for AI and e-commerce strategy.
- Joe Terranova (40:23): “They are a clear leader in a magnetic AI e-commerce…Walmart is on its way to a trillion dollar market cap.”
- AbbVie upgraded, highlighting sector selectivity in healthcare.
- Liz Thomas (41:54): “If you’re a value investor, this [healthcare] has to have hit your triggers at some point…Dollars looking to diversify away from mega cap tech.”
4. Record Highs & Gold
- Alphabet: Multiple panelists call it undervalued vs. rest of Mag 7, see opportunity to add on pullbacks.
- Citi: Still undervalued compared to peers, ripe for further upside (45:51).
- Gold: Record highs driven by central bank demand and falling real yields; retail traders energized (45:54).
Market Sentiment & Strategy
- Rotation View:
- Small cap and cyclical rally debated; skepticism that true outperformance comes this early in a rate cut cycle.
- Caution Amid Euphoria:
- While optimism prevails, panelists (notably Weiss) caution that unforeseen “shock” events can derail rallies.
- Steve Weiss (22:24): “Something always happens and generally it’s a surprise shock…that’s what does it.”
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Fed Rate Cut Odds & Dissents: 02:07–03:19
- Liesman on Fed Signaling: 03:19–04:49
- Dot Plot & Market Implications: 06:25–07:34
- IPO Activity & Capital Markets: 16:57–25:06
- Robo-Taxi: Lyft vs. Uber Reaction: 27:43–32:32
- Netflix/Disney Calls: 38:04–39:55
- Walmart & Healthcare Calls: 40:09–42:31
- Closing: Record Highs and Gold: 44:01–46:20
Conclusion
The committee sees the Fed’s move as well-signaled with few surprises expected. Any market volatility will flow more from Powell’s language than the act itself. Earnings strength and IPO activity are bullish signals, though caution is warranted with overhyped debuts and potential shocks. Key sectors—financials, tech, and health care—each have advocates based on valuation and earnings momentum. The broader implication is a market still “riding the current,” confident for now, but alert to signs of change, especially as the Fed enters an easing cycle and election year politics loom.
Final Trades (46:52–47:23)
- Jim: Qualcomm
- Weiss: Vertiv ("high test beta")
- Liz: China-focused equities (stimulus prospects)
- Joe: Northern Trust (expected breakout)
“You don’t fight the Fed, pure and simple.” — Steve Weiss (07:59)
“Not if you’re getting 14% earnings growth.” — Jim Lebenthal (19:46)