CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: Big Tech's Concentration Situation
Air Date: February 18, 2026
Host: Scott Wapner
Panelists: Joe Terranovic, Kerry Firestone, Liz Thomas, Jason Snipe, plus guest Bryn Talkington

Overview

This episode centers on the current state of Big Tech stocks, exploring the increasing concentration among mega-cap tech names, investor sentiment, and what upcoming earnings—particularly from Nvidia—may mean for the sector and broader market. The conversation also covers themes like capital expenditure (CapEx) in tech, rotation into and out of key sectors, sentiment differences between institutional and retail investors, and how issues of portfolio diversity are manifesting in today’s equity market. Other major topics include key stock moves, the societal impact of tech (with reference to Meta’s legal challenges), and tactical ETF strategies for income.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tech Sector Turnaround: Are We Turning a Corner?

• Market Overview
  • Nasdaq up over 1% (01:14); stabilization and possible turnaround discussed.
  • Noted participation outside mega-cap tech: Analog Devices, Micron, ON Semi at 52-week highs. (01:51)
• Quote:
  • Joe Terranovic (01:51): “Every turn begins with stabilization … you had some stabilization yesterday in a lot of the software names.”

2. Nvidia's Critical Earnings and CapEx Narrative

• Anticipation of Nvidia’s Earnings
  • Nvidia up 2.5% after a $50 billion multiyear Meta deal. (03:21)
  • Concerns about whether Nvidia's earnings could "make or break" Big Tech for the season per Barclays.
• CapEx and Spending Discipline
  • Discussion of AI-driven CapEx, ROI, and industry prudence after OpenAI’s cutback on chip spending.
• Quote:
  • Jason Snipe (04:37): “There’s been prudence with their spending and I think that's important with the whole CapEx narrative.”

3. Mega Cap Concentration & Portfolio Construction

• Under-ownership of Nvidia?
  • Morgan Stanley report claims Nvidia is under-owned vs. S&P 500 historical averages; panel questions methodology and cites industry wariness of concentration risk.
• Active Manager Dilemma
  • Active managers still desire diversity, despite outperformance of concentrated tech bets. (10:00–10:55)
• Quote:
  • Liz Thomas (10:26): “...if you had followed a policy of just owning the weight, the index, or even more concentrated over the last 15 years, you would have done better because those concentrations really paid off…”

4. Amazon, Meta & Other Key Earnings Stories

• Amazon
  • Rebounds after a losing streak; big CapEx debated, AWS and cost controls noted. (12:49)
• Meta
  • Mark Zuckerberg testifies in court case addressing product design’s impact on teens; panel expects minimal short-term stock impact. (15:06)
• Quote:
  • Liz Thomas (16:23): "Is anything going to come of this? Probably not in the near term… Does it matter to the stock price? I would say not particularly."

5. Cloud & Cybersecurity Software: Overdone Sell-off?

• Palo Alto Networks
  • Recent M&A activity and AI as a future driver; panel split on whether the cyber sell-off is justified given the underlying bullish sentiment. (17:59–19:42)
• Quote:
  • Jason Snipe (19:04): “AI is going to serve as a catalyst for a lot of these things. I think the market is kind of misunderstanding what's going on here.”

6. Cadence, Corporate Margins, and Earnings Season

• Cadence Design Systems
  • Strong earnings and perceived immunity to AI disruption. (20:12–21:48)
• Overall Earnings Strength
  • Despite market volatility, S&P profit margins at all-time highs; fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. (21:48–23:43)
• Quote:
  • Scott Wapner (22:43): “Are we underappreciating how good earnings have been? Absolutely we are. And double digit earnings growth, not to mention revenue growth at 9%...”

7. Institutional vs. Retail Flows Amid Strong Earnings

• Report from Bank of America
  • Strong outflows from institutional equity clients, even as retail investors buy the dip. (23:43–25:39)
• Quote:
  • Joe Terranovic (24:23): “The volatility in the market this year on an individual basis is far more extreme than … the last couple of years.”

Stock Moves & Sector Rotations

Bryn Talkington’s Trades

• CBRE Group: Bought post-earnings, citing cost-saving and operational efficiency from AI. (28:20)
  • Memorable quote: "Listen to these earnings reports because there's a lot of opportunity to be found when these CTAs short these stocks for really dumb reasons." (29:25)
• Software Upset: Opportunities in names like ServiceNow; sees recent dips as overdone.

Kerry Firestone’s Portfolio Moves (31:06)

• American Express: Trimmed after run-up from 11x to 19x earnings.
• S&P Global: Adding on software sell-off for exposure to resilient ratings and debt markets.
• American Water Works: New buy—utility, lower multiple, 2.5% dividend.
• Flowserve: New buy—diversification, exposure to engineering, oil/gas, and chemicals.

ETF & Income Strategies

• ETF Edge Segment (37:27):
  • Discusses strategies for generating income via high-quality dividend stocks and actively managed covered calls.
  • Christian Magoon (Amplify ETFs): Two-pronged approach—dividends and option income, with mention of preferential tax treatment.
• International Opportunities:
  • International dividend-paying stocks, with global covered call strategies highlighted for yield and upside participation.

Notable Calls of the Day (40:31+)

• First Solar: Baird reiterates outperform but remains cautious due to challenging comps.
• AbbVie: Pipeline updates positive; Skyrizi/Rimbo growth outpacing Humira declines. (41:00)
• Amgen: Piper bumps price target; rotation favoring large-cap biotech.
• Ulta Beauty: Added to top ideas list, not seen as disruptable by AI. (42:20)
• Costco: Off a top ideas list after a bounce; long-term "membership runway" still attractive.
• Chevron, Financials, Amazon, Baker Hughes: Panel’s final “fast fire” trade ideas.

Market Technicals & Sentiment

Are We at the Start of a Tech Turnaround?

• Mike Santoli:
  • Tech has “plenty to prove” despite some stabilization and hardware momentum. Nvidia remains a sentiment bellwether, but not always the clearing event some hope for. (43:35–45:09)
• Consumer Resilience:
  • Consumer staples, restaurants, airlines, and discretionary leading sector resilience—making it “hard to get really negative on this market" (46:13).

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• Joe Terranovic (01:51):
  “Every turn begins with stabilization. I think that's what happened… Excellent earnings from Cadence Design… not just software that's powering us higher today.”

• Kerry Firestone (03:16):
  "Nvidia could make or break big tech so far mediocre season."

• Jason Snipe (04:37):
  “If I look at this deal with OpenAI... they actually pulled back that spend... so I think there's been prudence with their spending…”

• Liz Thomas (10:26):
  "...if you had followed a policy of just owning the weight, the index... those concentrations really paid off with technology stocks..."

• Joe Terranovic (11:46):
  “Concentration the last five years has actually outperformed being diversified for sure.”

• Liz Thomas (16:23):
  “Is anything going to come of this? Probably not in the near term… Does it matter to the stock price? I would say not particularly.”

• Jason Snipe (19:04):
  “AI is going to serve as a catalyst for a lot of these things. I think the market is kind of misunderstanding what's going on here.”

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Stabilization in Tech / Nvidia Discussion: 01:01–06:59
• Mega Cap Concentration Risks: 07:57–11:22
• Amazon & Meta Updates: 12:11–16:55
• Cybersecurity Sell-off analysis: 17:22–20:12
• Earnings Season & Margins: 21:48–23:43
• Flow of Funds / Institutional vs. Retail: 23:43–25:39
• Stock Moves / Bryn Talkington & Kerry Portfolio: 28:20–34:00
• ETF Income Strategies: 37:27–39:54
• Final Calls & Tech Turnaround Debates: 40:31–47:20

In Closing

This episode offered a wide-ranging look at the crosscurrents in tech and market sentiment: the anticipation and importance of Nvidia’s earnings, the paradox of strong fundamentals and outflows, the resilience of consumer stocks, and ongoing debates about diversification versus concentration. The tone was analytical and candid, with panelists openly questioning Wall Street narratives and emphasizing discipline amid market volatility.

End of Summary