CNBC Halftime Report Podcast: "Buy the Bounce?" — March 5, 2026
Episode Overview
In this episode, host Scott Wapner leads a lively roundtable with top investors Joe Terranova, Liz Thomas, Bill Baruch, and Steve Weiss, as they analyze the day’s bounce-back in the U.S. equity markets following a turbulent week. The panel discusses whether we've seen a market bottom, the resilience of mega-cap tech, sector rotation, the outcome of the Middle East tensions, and the evolving narratives around software, energy, semiconductors, and more. With real-time market insights, notable quotes, and a timely interview from the Morgan Stanley TMT conference, this episode provides an in-depth look at how seasoned investors are making calls in a volatile environment.
Key Themes and Discussion Points
1. Market Sentiment: Correction, Bounce, or Bear?
Timestamps: [02:00]–[09:30]
- Scott Wapner opens, citing Goldman and Deutsche Bank notes: equities remain vulnerable to correction, but not a bear market. The panel broadly concurs, viewing recent selling as a potential shakeout rather than a harbinger of deeper trouble.
- Joe Terranova: "You have the buildings of a bottoming process. Let's see where we go from here." [03:00]
- Mechanisms for market bottoms: volatility and correlations rise, leverage and position sizing come down; some see recent action as sufficient "washout" ([04:51], Liz Thomas).
- Liz Thomas explains metrics for "capitulation," warning some indicators are still unresolved, particularly geopolitical risk: “We do need to see de-escalation in the tension in the Middle East in order to really feel like it's done.” [05:15]
- Bill Baruch highlights recent flows and sector rotations as signals that risk appetite may be returning: “We're seeing tech come out of that…to me those are risk-on thrusts that point us higher.” [06:46]
2. Mega-Caps, Safe Havens, and Software Shakeout
Timestamps: [10:44]–[15:56]
- Scott notes investor moves out of small caps and into large, “safe haven” equities; “when in doubt, go big or go home.” [08:47]
- Microsoft as case study: Both Steve Weiss and Bill Baruch add to their positions, seeing value after the software sector’s correction.
- Weiss: “Now it's back to being a full size corporation… I think that there is a lot of panic in it. So I added to it.” [11:30]
- Baruch: “You wait until things test the 200-week moving average, it's going to prove to be a long-term buying opportunity. That's what Microsoft did.” [12:35]
- Joe Terranova calls Microsoft “a proxy for OpenAI, just like SoftBank is.”
- Software ETF IGV: Liz Thomas reiterates her call, “I'm going to cover my eyes for this one, but I'm doing IGV again. I hope I don't have to apologize for it again. I think we bottomed.” [46:30]
3. Semiconductor Sector: Positioning and Risks
Timestamps: [18:00]–[21:48]
- Broadcom is in focus ahead of earnings, highlighting software-revenue exposure and chip secular trends ([18:47], Terranova).
- Nvidia remains a top holding for Baruch: “It's our largest holding… I think it is time to put it past right now… The one thing that we're really looking at...is the Capex AI spending.” [19:47]
- Taiwan Semi: Weiss trimmed to manage overweight, but remains “by far my largest position… Of course the risk always is what happens with China.” [20:46]
4. Energy: Monetizing Strength and Geopolitical Watch
Timestamps: [21:48]–[25:51]
- Bill Baruch reduces SLB (Schlumberger), citing sector profits and lack of further acceleration amid tempered oil price spikes. Still positive on LNG, Exxon, Kinder Morgan.
- “SLB has been sort of trading sideways for the last maybe a couple of weeks... we felt the need to monetize something out of that move.” [22:27]
- Geopolitics: Panel discusses how Iranian oil is largely off the market already; broad consensus that even with increased volatility, spikes in energy tend to be short-lived.
- Weiss: “These contract spikes in oil have always been short and reset much lower. So everybody thinks they're getting in early. They're all getting in late.” [25:39]
- Joe Terranova: Expresses intent to exit more of his energy exposure, but to keep refiners (“Valero, Marathon, and Philips 6”) through summer. [25:01]
5. Rotation and Resilience: Sector Winners and Losers
Timestamps: [28:06]–[32:16]
- Netflix: Weiss adds back after previous exit, citing strength vs. competition: “I'm looking at stocks… I've already been through the fires. I've already been through the battles. And that's Netflix.” [28:19]
- Tesla: Baruch supports recent support levels and self-driving headlines, thinks now is “where you may want to think about adding.” [29:31]
- Ross Stores/TJX: Discount retail remains hot, with consumers hunting bargains across demographics. “They've already expressed that it's a strong start to the spring season.” [30:04]
- Caterpillar & Corning: Machinery and tech suppliers both called out for strength linked to infrastructure/capex and data center demand.
- Corning: “It's all about fiber optics… participating in the build out after Nvidia reported.” [31:49]
6. Global Markets: Emerging Markets and Asia Volatility
Timestamps: [40:06]–[44:15]
- South Korea’s Stock Market records worst day ever (down 12%); seen as momentary correction after major run-up since early 2025. [40:46]
- Liz Thomas is bullish on emerging markets: “They are insulated from a lot of this geopolitics volatility... I do believe that the dollar stays weak after some of this de-escalates.” [41:34]
- Bill Baruch recommends EEM ETF for diversified exposure; warns that “EWY” (pure South Korea) is too concentrated/risky. [42:27]
- Terranova highlights Mexico and Brazil (EWW, EWZ) as oil-exporting EMs with relative safety, as well as Norway, Malaysia as less-accessible ETF plays. [43:32]
7. Exclusive Interview: Morgan Stanley on the State of Tech and Capital Markets
Timestamps: [35:16]–[40:03]
- Deirdre Bosa interviews Mo Asimal, Co-Head of Investment Banking at Morgan Stanley, live from the TMT conference.
- Mood among software CEOs has improved—less panic, more talk of adaptation versus disruption. “There are going to be some winners, they're going to be some laggards.” [35:45, Mo Asimal]
- On software: “If you cannot adapt, you’re probably in trouble.”
- M&A environment is healthy; “Cash balances are very strong. Earnings in this country, very, very strong… Now is the right time to do M&A if it’s the right thing for your business.” [37:57]
- IPO pipeline expected to improve, public markets can handle large deals: “My answer is yes… there’ll be plenty of capacity…” [38:47]
8. Market Technicals & Outlook
Timestamps: [44:15]–[46:03]
- Mike Santoli (CNBC Markets Commentator) weighs in:
- The recent shock prompted “chase liquidation out of globally crowded areas… culminating in the near term. I still want to see the S&P get above 6950 … to say we’re out of the lower end of this range.” [44:26]
- Volatility spike may have marked a turning point, but more constructive evidence needed.
Notable Quotes
- "When the missiles fly, it's time to buy." – Jonathan Krinsky (quoted by Scott Wapner) [10:07]
- “I'm looking at stocks… I've already been through the battles. And that's Netflix.” – Steve Weiss [28:19]
- "It's a proxy for OpenAI, just like SoftBank is. ... If software is going to have a recovery rebound, Microsoft is going higher." – Joe Terranova [13:50]
- "You want to see a stock that's done a lot of nothing? ... This is Microsoft's 'Alphabet spring of last year' moment. Everybody hates it." – Bill Baruch [13:20]
- “The market's actually very smart about [geopolitical risk]... two days later you'd say, what was that about? It was a buying opportunity.” – Steve Weiss [09:27]
Final Trades & Summary Calls
Timestamps: [46:30]–[47:10]
- Liz Thomas: Buying IGV (software ETF), sees a bottom.
- Steve Weiss: Adding to Alibaba, believes it’s extremely cheap after being “kicked” by it.
- Bill Baruch: Likes LNG (Cheniere); US natural gas, says "sitting pretty, maybe a breakout."
Episode Tone & Language
The discussion is lively, confident, and data-driven, with panelists both sharing hard calls and admitting recent misses. Investors are focused on resilience, sector rotation, and tactical positioning amid uncertainty. The energy remains optimistic but realistic—reflecting a market still processing headline risk but eager to spot opportunity.
For full details and ticker discussions, catch the episode’s market hour live weekdays at 12–1PM ET on CNBC.