CNBC’s Halftime Report: Can Stocks Hit New Highs? (June 20, 2025)

Host: Scott Wapner

Introduction

In the June 20, 2025 episode of CNBC’s Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner delves into the pressing question facing investors: Can stocks hit new highs amidst current economic and geopolitical uncertainties? Joined by a panel of financial experts—including Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Jenny Harrington, Jason Snipe, and senior economics correspondent Steve Liesman—the discussion navigates through the complexities of the market’s current state, the impact of Federal Reserve policies, and the influence of geopolitical tensions.

Market Overview

Scott Wapner opens the discussion by highlighting the mixed performance of the markets:

“[01:04] Scott Wapner: Front and center this hour, stocks searching for direction following the Fed meeting and that uncertainty over Iran will trade all of it with the investment committee.”

The panel agrees that the market is currently in a state of flux, influenced by recent Federal Reserve meetings and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The uncertainty surrounding these factors has led to increased volatility, with investors seeking clarity on future market directions.

Federal Reserve Policies and Economic Indicators

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the Federal Reserve's recent actions and statements. Josh Brown provides historical context on stock market recoveries post-drawdown:

“[02:05] Josh Brown: What tends to happen after a 20% drawdown ... you stall out a little bit. ... the average period of time it takes that you have to stall out just below those highs is about 3.6 months.”

Stephanie Link adds insights into current economic indicators, emphasizing the resilience of the economy despite soft consumer confidence:

“[04:12] Stephanie Link: The economy is actually doing just fine. We're running at about 2% in terms of GDP. ... spending inflation is coming down. That's good.”

However, she also points out a new concern regarding weekly jobless claims:

“[04:40] Stephanie Link: That the weekly jobless claims ... are higher now. ... I think 260 and higher will get me more concerned, but for now I feel okay.”

Steve Liesman discusses the differing perspectives within the Fed, particularly between Chair Powell and Governor Waller:

“[06:07] Steve Liesman: Powell is someone who thinks ... he still wants to reduce rates. Waller feels confident that tariffs will be a one-time rise in the price level and is willing to act on it.”

This internal debate highlights the Fed’s cautious approach, balancing between combating inflation and not stifling economic growth prematurely.

Geopolitical Tensions and Market Impact

The ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East remains a critical factor influencing market sentiment. Scott Wapner notes the market’s reaction to potential decisions in the region:

“[01:04] Scott Wapner: ... the uncertainty over Iran will trade all of it with the investment committee.”

With tensions escalating, investors are wary of how geopolitical developments might impact global markets, particularly in sectors sensitive to such events.

Stock-Specific Insights and Sector Performance

The panel shifts focus to specific sectors and stocks, emphasizing the outperformance of mega-cap companies. Josh Brown underscores the dominance of major tech stocks:

“[15:06] Josh Brown: ... the NASDAQ has done better than Most everything else over almost any period of recent time.”

Stephanie Link highlights positive earnings reports from financial institutions:

“[17:28] Stephanie Link: ... Morgan Stanley had a financial services conference and just about every CEO ... had positive things to say about deals, equity capital markets, about bottoming and I net interest income and net interest margins ...”

Key Stock Highlights:

• IBM:

  • Jenny Harrington praises IBM’s strategic shift towards AI and cloud services:

    “[23:36] Stephanie Link: ... diversifying away from being a mainframe company to AI, cloud, data center, blockchain, all of these Things will lead to better growth going forward.”

• CarMax:

  • Demonstrates resilience in the used car market amidst rising new car prices:

    “[29:15] Jenny Harrington: CarMax had a tough time because there were supply production problems during COVID and now we're past that. ... used cars are going to be compelling trades at 16 times earnings and the expected growth is 14 to 18% for the next three years.”

• Netflix:

  • Jason Snipe anticipates continued growth driven by international expansion and new content strategies:

    “[38:31] Jason Snipe: ... operating margins were 32% last quarter. EPS growth was 25%. ... Lots of room to run internationally.”

• Rocket Companies:

  • Positioned to benefit from a potential refinancing boom as interest rates fluctuate:

    “[30:23] Josh Brown: ... when rates come down, demand for refinancing comes back. ... they are in the midst of two massive transactions ... buying a huge mortgage servicing company called Mr. Cooper and Redfin.”

Federal Reserve’s Future Moves and Market Expectations

The panel discusses the Fed’s cautious stance on interest rates, balancing inflation control with economic growth. Steve Liesman emphasizes Powell’s reluctance to risk economic gains:

“[07:45] Steve Liesman: ... Powell does not want to squander [inflation control gains]. ... he doesn't have an emergency. I'm going to wait.”

Conversely, Governor Waller’s more proactive approach suggests potential rate cuts to preempt labor market weaknesses:

“[12:15] Jason Snipe: ... Waller believes this is going to be a pass through event. ... looking to cut interest rates to avoid issues with the labor market.”

This divergence within the Fed signals potential shifts in monetary policy, which could significantly impact market dynamics.

Final Insights and Outlook

As the episode draws to a close, the panel reinforces the importance of focusing on earnings as a key driver for stock performance, rather than solely relying on Fed actions or macroeconomic factors:

“[04:40] Stephanie Link: ... earnings ... drive stocks on the way up and on the way down. Numbers are going, I think the second quarter numbers are going to be pretty good ...”

Josh Brown echoes this sentiment, noting that strong earnings can mitigate concerns over interest rate fluctuations:

“[05:26] Scott Wapner: ... Steve, I'm really struck today, I guess by just a couple of days following Powell, ...”

Overall, while uncertainty persists due to geopolitical tensions and internal debates within the Federal Reserve, strong earnings reports and strategic stock movements in key sectors provide a cautiously optimistic outlook for the market.

Notable Quotes

• Josh Brown [02:05]: “What tends to happen after a 20% drawdown ... you stall out a little bit.”

• Stephanie Link [04:12]: “The economy is actually doing just fine. ... spending inflation is coming down. That's good.”

• Steve Liesman [06:07]: “Powell is somebody who thinks when he says the word modestly restrictive, ... still wants to reduce rates.”

• Jenny Harrington [29:15]: “Used cars are going to be compelling trades at 16 times earnings and the expected growth is 14 to 18% for the next three years.”

• Jason Snipe [38:31]: “Operating margins were 32% last quarter. EPS growth was 25%.”

Conclusion

The June 20, 2025 episode of Halftime Report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current stock market landscape, emphasizing the interplay between Federal Reserve policies, economic indicators, and geopolitical events. Through expert insights and detailed discussions, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the factors influencing whether stocks can attain new highs in the face of ongoing uncertainties.

For those navigating the markets, the episode underscores the importance of focusing on corporate earnings and strategic sector investments as key determinants of stock performance, rather than getting solely swayed by macroeconomic trends or policy shifts.

Note: Advertisements and non-content sections from the transcript have been excluded to focus on the core discussions and insights presented during the episode.