CNBC Halftime Report — Episode Summary

Title: Can Stocks Rally to Year-End?
Date: December 2, 2025
Host: Scott Wapner
Guests/Contributors: Joe Terranova, Shannon Saccocia, Jim Lebenthal, Josh Brown, Steve Kovach, Mackenzie Sigalos, Robert Frank, Mike Santoli

Episode Overview

This episode of CNBC's Halftime Report zeroes in on whether stocks can rally through the final weeks of 2025. The panel debates the themes that have defined the year, with special focus on the AI arms race among tech giants (Apple, OpenAI, Alphabet, Amazon), the performance and expectations around the “Mag 7” mega-cap stocks, as well as insights into the market’s breadth, liquidity, and upcoming catalysts.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The “Mag 7” Mega-Cap Stocks and Year-End Rally

• Momentum and Quality Remain Central Themes:

  • Josh Brown stresses that the “Mag 7”—Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Nvidia—remain dominant as we close out 2025. Despite calls for market “broadening,” these remain the most liquid and fundamentally attractive stocks.
    • “These are the biggest, most liquid stocks and contra the bubble narrative they’re not even expensive… Nvidia’s the second cheapest stock in the Mag 7. It’s got a forward P/E now at 24…” (04:05)
  • Joe Terranova agrees on the dominance of Mag 7, arguing 2026 will remain about quality over just momentum:
    • “The Mag 7 is the essence of quality. … I think it’s going to look very similar to what it did in ‘23 and ‘24.” (06:58)

• Year-End Outlook (December 2025):

  • Panelists highlight performance chasing by fund managers but express some caution.
    • Joe Terranova hedges on a definitive call:
      • “I have no idea what’s going to happen here in the final three weeks of the year where liquidity is coming out of the market… but I am more focused on how do I want to think about investing in 26.” (10:40)
    • Josh Brown underscores strong sector momentum and points to a record number of stocks above technical benchmarks.
    • Shannon Saccocia notes broader sector strength beyond AI and tech, but expects tech to lead the rally through year-end.

Market Breadth & Internal Rotation

• Evidence for Market Broadening:
  • Jim Lebenthal and Shannon Saccocia observe improved performance outside of mega-cap tech, pointing to names like Delta Airlines and Wynn Resorts, and citing a healthier consumer outlook.
    • “The areas that are starting to perform a little bit better are around the consumer... We’re seeing this expectation of stronger growth next year.” — Shannon (19:44)
  • Josh Brown refers to the S&P 500 Equal Weight (RSP) index hitting fresh highs:
    • “This is the equal weight S&P500. ... This is back at a record high. ... So, me coming on here and saying, ‘Hey, guess what’s going to happen yet again? They’re going to buy the same 10 stocks...’ I am saying that, but not to the exclusion of broader trade.’’ (24:00–25:40)

Apple’s AI Shake-Up and Stock Outlook

• Leadership Changes at Apple:
  • Steve Kovach reports on a significant leadership shift—John Giannandrea stepping down as Apple’s AI chief, replaced by Amar Subramania, signaling a demotion in internal structure.
    • “Giannandrea is actually the third member of Tim Cook’s leadership team to step down in just the past year… Apple has to get this one right. ... They are framing it as a reset.” (32:25)
  • Concerns remain about Apple’s ability to execute in the AI space, especially as key AI executives have departed for competitors.
• Valuation Debate:
  • Jim Lebenthal notes Apple’s high forward P/E and PEG ratios, expressing caution about adding to positions without substantial upward earnings revisions:
    • “I own it. I find it hard to put new money to work in the name right now at 33 times forward earnings… these estimates need to go up by a lot.” (36:34)

The AI Arms Race: OpenAI, Google, Amazon

• OpenAI’s “Code Red” and Gemini Challenge:

  • Mackenzie Sigalos reports that Sam Altman declared a “code red” at OpenAI, shifting resources away from ads and back to core chatbot development as Google’s Gemini surpasses ChatGPT on certain benchmarks.
    • “The memo makes clear that OpenAI’s moat is under real pressure here… This leaderboard in AI is shifting in the course of weeks, not years, not even months.” (39:36)
  • Discussion suggests fierce competition, rapid model advancement, and shifting leadership in AI.

• Amazon’s AI Traction and Anthropic:

  • Josh Brown elevates Amazon as a top-3 AI company due to its strong position in enterprise AI through Anthropic and AWS.
    • “Anthropic is the biggest enterprise AI player... they’re very quietly entrenching themselves among corporate America… I think the Anthropic share price would be rising right now and the OpenAI share price would be falling.” (47:48)

Spotlight: Best Stocks & New Buys

• Josh Brown reviews his “best stocks in the market” (57:18–01:03:45):

  • Morgan Stanley: Benefiting from asset management, trading, and an investment banking renaissance.
  • Ciena: Telecom infrastructure (AI “darling”), well positioned on AI buildout; high-growth mid-cap alternative to Cisco.
  • Baker Hughes: Oilfield services—under-owned, with upside if the rig count turns and oil surprises like gold did in 2025.

• Joe Terranova announces a new buy: Twilio

  • Sees technical breakout potential, improved profitability, and diversified growth beyond messaging.
    • “There is a very strong runway for this stock to move toward $200 as we go into 2026. ... The forward P/E at about 26, 27 is a reasonable valuation.” (01:11:10)

• Cybersecurity:

  • Emphasis on CrowdStrike (expected strong report imminent), also mentions Okta and Fortinet.
  • Shannon Saccocia likens cybersecurity space to biotech—always evolving, with innovation and constant necessity.

Private Lending Risks

• Overview of Asset-Backed Finance (ABF):
  • Robert Frank details private credit’s rise, especially ABF (asset-backed finance), which is expected to top $9 trillion by 2029.
  • Recent bankruptcies (e.g., First Brands Group) highlight risks as more capital chases these loans and underwriting is tested.
  • Shannon Saccocia stresses the importance of diversification and strong underwriting:
    • “You still have to have strong underwriting and you have to be diversified regardless of what you’re doing… We do acknowledge there likely are going to be some of these situations.” (01:25:30)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Josh Brown (04:05):
  “Meta is at 22 times forward P/E. … Nvidia’s the second cheapest stock in the Mag 7… This is the best company on earth and it’s 24 times forward earnings, a multiple you have never been able to pay for a name with execution at this level.”

• Joe Terranova on December outlook (10:40):
  “I have no idea what’s going to happen here in the final three weeks of the year... I am more focused on how do I want to think about investing in 26.”

• Shannon Saccocia on market broadening (19:44):
  “If you want to look for other pockets of strength outside of AI, we’re seeing this expectation of stronger growth next year… I think going into 2026, if you aren’t trying to figure out where the next leg of this trade is, you’re going to be behind.”

• Steve Kovach on Apple AI shakeup (32:25):
  “Apple has to get this one right… They’re framing it as a reset, saying ‘we have all the pieces in place’ and Apple is poised to accelerate its work on AI.”

• Mackenzie Sigalos on OpenAI crisis (39:36):
  “All of this is coming as OpenAI is committed to $1.4 trillion in long term AI infrastructure spending—a sell that was a lot easier when ChatGPT was comfortably ahead.”

• Josh Brown on AI stock leadership cycles (47:48):
  “This idea that it’s OpenAI versus Google... If we had Anthropic trading, I think its share price would be rising right now and OpenAI’s would be falling. Leadership is shifting from one month to the next.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Timestamp | |----------------------------------------------|--------------:| | Mag 7 dominance & valuation debate | 03:00–08:00 | | Year-end 2025 market outlook & December view | 09:00–14:00 | | Market liquidity & broadening | 15:00–20:00 | | S&P 500 Equal Weight & market breadth | 24:30–26:00 | | Apple AI leadership shake-up | 32:20–36:40 | | OpenAI’s “code red” / Gemini vs ChatGPT | 39:30–43:00 | | Amazon, Anthropic, and AI enterprise race | 47:40–50:00 | | Best stocks in the market review | 57:18–01:03:45| | Joe’s new buy: Twilio | 01:11:10 | | Cybersecurity “mini-bubble” conversation | 01:14:40 | | Private lending / ABF risk profile | 01:25:00 | | Final trades (Netflix, Oracle, Semis, etc.) | 01:39:20 |

Episode Tone and Takeaways

The panel remains bullish on broader markets into the end of 2025, especially on large-cap tech. However, discussions reflect a healthy skepticism about calling the very short-term, and a nuanced view that both mega-cap leadership and increased sector breadth can coexist. The AI race is intensifying—with Google’s Gemini, OpenAI’s urgency, and Amazon’s quiet strength through Anthropic each front and center—while Apple’s latest management shift garners debate on whether it can regain AI momentum.

Investors are encouraged to watch for potential performance chases, remain vigilant on valuation (especially with already expensive stocks), and keep an eye on underappreciated areas like energy and telecom infrastructure. Risks are rising in private lending, emphasizing the need for underwriting discipline and portfolio diversification.

Final Trades

• Josh Brown: Netflix (“watch the M&A noise on Warner Brothers”), Oracle (“potential rally into earnings”)
• Jim Lebenthal: Financials, especially private equity firms and money center banks
• Joe Terranova: Semiconductor equipment (Teradyne), plus new position in Twilio
• Shannon Saccocia: Energy—potential tailwind from AI infrastructure needs

For further detail, tune in to the full episode or consult the show’s daily summary at CNBC.com.