CNBC Halftime Report Podcast Summary

Episode: Can Stocks Rally to Year-End?
Airdate: December 3, 2025
Host: Dominic Chu (in for Scott Wapner)
Guests/Committee Members: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Jim Lebenthal, Bryn Talkington

Episode Overview

In this episode of Halftime Report, the panel examines the outlook for stocks as the year-end approaches. With the S&P 500 holding strong and the market relatively calm, the investment committee debates whether this resilience can last, discusses notable stock moves among tech, cybersecurity, energy, and retail, and shares their top underperforming picks and final trades heading into 2026. The conversation is lively, candid, and occasionally contrarian, grounded in fundamental analysis but with a real-world pulse check on recent earnings, sector sentiment, and macro signals.

Markets Check-In

(01:16–01:45)

• Dow up almost 0.5% (47,686), S&P 500 at 6836 (+1.1%), Nasdaq flat, Russell 2000 up 1%.
• The panel sets the stage: Can the market maintain momentum through year-end?

Major Discussion Segments

1. Tech & Software: Salesforce, Adobe & AI Fears

Brynn throws in the towel on Salesforce
(02:21–06:09)

• Bryn Talkington: Sells Salesforce before earnings, citing its lack of upward momentum.

  • “I feel that Salesforce right now... is stuck in the mud... The stock price is telling me what’s happening.” (02:21)
  • Points out peculiar AI moves, noting, “Marc Benioff goes and tweets about Gemini when I believe Salesforce works with OpenAI.” (05:07)

• Jim Lebenthal: Understands Bryn’s exit, faces similar issues with Adobe.

  • “There are periods of times where the fundamentals disconnect from the share price. And if you believe the fundamentals are going to stay intact... you’d want to be there for the rebound.” (03:42)
  • Sticks with Adobe, believing in an eventual turnaround.

• Joe Terranova: On “Team Brin”—software as a sector is flat vs. chips up 45%+ this year.

  • “The remaining software names that we have... don’t look good except maybe Palantir.” (06:40)
  • Raises concerns over U.S. software export restrictions and software valuation excess.

2. Software Earnings Preview: Snowflake, CrowdStrike, Cybersecurity

(07:47–14:27)

• Stephanie Link: Snowflake’s strong growth (product revenue +29–30%) is impressive but priced in.

  • “Whereas I would say that Salesforce and Adobe are expensive for the growth that you’re getting. Snowflake is expensive... but they have real growth and the operating margin opportunity.” (08:13)

• On CrowdStrike:

  • “They’re the best [in cybersecurity]... but I think they’re priced to be the best.” (11:02)
  • Prefers Palo Alto Networks as a better value now (“stock is only up 3% year to date”).

• Joe Terranova: Stays bullish on Palo Alto and CrowdStrike, wary of Okta and Fortinet.

  • “In cybersecurity, [serial acquisition] is not such a bad thing... CrowdStrike is well positioned.” (12:55)

• Bryn Talkington: Owns BUG ETF for broad cyber exposure, bets on ongoing sector tailwinds.

  • “Cybersecurity will continue to grow, I think, well above... S&P earnings. Corporations are just going to have to spend more and more.” (14:27)

3. Megacap Tech Under the Microscope: Microsoft, Oracle

Microsoft Quota Rumors & AI Reality
(15:16–20:10)

• Steve Kovac (CNBC Reporter): Microsoft disputes a report about AI product quota cuts, highlighting confusion over growth targets vs. quotas.

  • “They told me... aggregate sales quotas for AI products have not been lowered.” (15:33)

• Stephanie Link: Recently added MSFT on post-earnings weakness. Sees Azure (up 39%) and margin expansion as overlooked strengths.

  • “For a company of this size, that’s ridiculous. There’s the growth.” (18:34)

• Jim Lebenthal: Likes Microsoft but won’t add more at its current high multiple (“If this stock goes below 25x [forward earnings], then I get more interested... Not just the AI”). (20:35)

Oracle’s Big CapEx Bet
(21:40–25:17)

• Jim Lebenthal: Long Oracle, calls it a “battleground stock” due to split analyst opinions and big debt-funded data center investments. Wants management to ease spending and improve free cash flow.

  • “It’s Larry Ellison’s company, he knows what he’s doing.” (23:28)

• Joe Terranova: Concerned about high debt levels (“debt to equity ratio of 500+%”) but sees technical entry point around $185/share. (23:49)

• Bryn Talkington: Skeptical—“How do you actually pull this off and not just destroy the balance sheet in the meantime?” (25:17)

4. Retail Roundup: Winners, Losers, and the Consumer

(28:25–32:52)

• Jim Lebenthal: The macro picture is mixed but retail commentary is generally positive.

  • “I think the consumer is in better shape than it’s being given credit for.” (28:57)

• Stephanie Link: Focused on company-specific thesis; prefers Dick’s Sporting Goods and Starbucks. Trimming Target (“problem child”) for better opportunities.

  • “I love [Dick’s management]... They’re comping the comp. They have products, traffic, transactions.” (30:02)

• Joe Terranova: Off-price sector is split—Burlington struggles, but TJX and Ross are strong. Ulta is a standout for youth-driven beauty spending.

  • “Ulta... is attractive from a valuation standpoint, but the growth is also there. They have limited online promotions and... are engaging that younger generation.” (31:49)

5. Committee Moves: New Buys in Energy

(35:47–38:13)

• Stephanie Link: Buys SLB (Schlumberger), citing compelling valuation and global leadership.

  • “You get a 3% yield. Stock’s still down 3% on the year... a special situation.” (35:57)

• Bryn Talkington: Likes SLB, prefers pipeline and royalty plays—“Hard space. But if we can get oil to stabilize... EMP players are cheap.” (36:59)

• Jim Lebenthal: Bullish on energy, emphasizes diversification benefits even with weak crude thanks to natural gas strength.

  • “Energy is a good product place to be right now.” (37:33)

6. Other Notable Trades & Segments

• Uber (38:41):

  • Stephanie Link: Perplexed by post-earnings dip. “I think the fundamentals are very much, very strong... news is very positive.”
  • Joe Terranova: “10 cities autonomous by the end of 2026... This is a company that has grown into its valuation and it’s maturing.” (39:25)

• Vertex Pharmaceuticals (40:43):

  • Jim Lebenthal: “Very strongly believe in it. Most often we talk about the cystic fibrosis franchise... they have multiple shots on goal.” (40:43)

• GE Vernova (41:29):

  • Stephanie Link: Ongoing electrification theme; sees underappreciated margin and free cash flow upside.

• Midday Word: Mike Santoli (42:09):

  • “Very cyclical character to leadership today... the market is really locked into this idea that growth is troughing and we’re going to reaccelerate.” (42:21)
  • Noted seasonal tailwinds and rotation, but sees the Fed as a near-term cap. (43:16)

Most Memorable Quotes

• Bryn Talkington (on Salesforce/Adobe sentiment):
  “What makes a stock go higher, there’s more buyers than sellers... I don’t need to wait to get confirmation. The market is telling me it’s not doing anything.” (02:21)

• Jim Lebenthal (on value vs. price action):
  "There are periods where the fundamentals disconnect from the share price... Sometimes we stick with these stocks... because the rebound is imminent." (03:42, 06:09)

• Stephanie Link (on Microsoft):
  “For a company of this size, that’s ridiculous. There’s the growth.” (18:34)

• Joe Terranova (on cybersecurity ETF):
  “It’s about Palo Alto and CrowdStrike. The Street is concerned about Palo Alto as a serial acquirer—I’m not sure that’s bad in this space.” (12:55)

Top Underperforming Picks for a Bounce in 2026

(44:11–46:12)

• Bryn: Apollo (APO) – “Fee-related earnings to grow 20%, insurance annuity business, long-duration capital base.”
• Jim: Lockheed Martin (LMT) – “Horrible year, but the F-35 is still in demand. Valuation is very forgiving.”
• Stephanie: Starbucks (SBUX) – “Turnaround is happening faster than expected. Stores are working.”
• Joe: Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) – Outperforming peers in a robust chip environment.

Final Trades

(46:26–47:08)

• Bryn: iShares Ethereum Trust (33% off its high)
• Jim: Citigroup (cheapest among big banks)
• Stephanie: Bank of America (better NII ahead, capital markets strength)
• Joe: Equitrans (natural gas play, sees a technical breakout)

Tone and Panel Dynamics

Engaging and unplugged, with participants debating (and sometimes agreeing to disagree) on tactical moves, long-term value, and what it takes for a stock to lead a portfolio into year-end. Practical, data-driven, yet also shaped by market sentiment and “gut feel” about sector rotations.

Useful Timestamps for Key Segments

• Salesforce/Adobe Software Talk: 02:21–06:40
• Cybersecurity (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) Deep Dive: 10:14–14:27
• Microsoft/Oracle/AI & CapEx in Focus: 15:16–25:17
• Retail Roundup, Consumer Health: 28:25–32:52
• Energy/SLB New Buy: 35:47–38:13
• Uber, Vertex, GE Vernova: 38:41–41:44
• Mike Santoli’s Midday Market Take: 42:09–43:50
• Top Picks for 2026: 44:11–46:12
• Final Trades: 46:26–47:20

In Summary

“Can Stocks Rally to Year-End?” packed in actionable perspectives on software, cybersecurity, megacap tech, retail, energy, and value opportunities, reflecting both healthy skepticism and optimism. The committee leaned toward selectivity, looking for resilience and rebound plays, while recognizing the seasonality and rotational dynamics that might propel or restrain different parts of the market going into 2026.

Ideal For:
Listeners who want portfolio insight, sector debates, and discussions that balance fundamentals with real-world market pulse.
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