Halftime Report: Can the Bounce Continue? (March 26, 2025)

Introduction In the March 26, 2025 episode of CNBC's Halftime Report, host Scott Wapner, alongside market experts Joe Terranova, Jenny Harrington, Kerry Firestone, and Brian Belsky, delves into the sustainability of the recent stock market bounce. The discussion centers around tariff-related news, sector performance, investment strategies, and economic outlook, providing listeners with comprehensive insights to navigate the volatile trading environment.

Market Overview Scott Wapner opens the discussion by highlighting a significant uptick in the S&P 500, which has risen approximately 5% from its recent low. Despite this positive movement, there are underlying concerns:

• Tariff Announcements: Bloomberg reports indicate that the President is preparing to announce auto tariffs as early as Wednesday, causing intraday fluctuations in major stocks like Ford and GM. This development has introduced uncertainty, impacting investor confidence.

  "President is preparing auto tariff announcement as soon as Wednesday... the market doesn't like anything that looks like tariffs are coming sooner rather than later." ([01:32])

• NASDAQ Performance: The NASDAQ has also seen a 5% rise but is experiencing downward pressure from tech giants like Nvidia and Tesla, which are dragging the index lower due to weaker chip performance and China-related concerns.

  "Tesla down another 5% today. That was dragging the NAS lower." ([02:00])

Tariff News and White House Developments Eamon Jabbers from Bloomberg provides an update on the evolving tariff situation:

• Auto Tariffs: The White House is reportedly preparing to introduce auto tariffs by Wednesday, potentially escalating trade tensions with global partners. This aligns with President Trump's recent statements but suggests a more immediate implementation than previously anticipated.

  "They might dial that back, not take all of that necessarily into account and come up with a lower tariff number next week on April 2nd." ([11:09])

• Policy Adjustments: The administration is signaling a possible reduction in the aggressiveness of tariff calculations, addressing criticisms that earlier proposals were overly punitive.

  "They're saying they might dial that back a little bit as well." ([12:31])

Investment Committee Insights The investment committee provides varied perspectives on the market's trajectory:

• Joe Terranova: Emphasizes the market's reaction to knowns versus unknowns, advocating for consistent stock picking based on fundamentals rather than reacting to market noise.

  "There's always things to buy there's, there will always be stocks, Scott, that outperform the broader market trends, period." ([04:35])

• Jenny Harrington: Cautions against relying solely on the current bounce, likening the market to a roller coaster that may remain within a narrow range without significant upward movement.

  "This market can be flat for the year, up 2%, down 2%, and it can keep doing that all through the year." ([09:24])

• Brian Belsky: Questions the sustainability of the S&P 6600 target, citing challenges like potential broad market corrections and overvalued earnings multiples.

  "6600 seems ambitious to me... uncertainty prevails." ([11:32])

Sector Analysis and Strategic Shifts Kerry Firestone and Dom Chu discuss sector performances and strategic reallocations:

• Shift to Bonds: Kerry Firestone suggests a pivot towards bonds, indicating a potential "year of bonds" due to reversals in fiscal policy and expectations of lower interest rates.

  "The real story underneath the market here is that 2025 is about ownership of bonds." ([06:28])

• Communication Services Sector: Dom Chu highlights mixed performances within the sector, noting successes like Fox Corp. and Netflix, while companies like Disney and Comcast lag behind.

  "One of the sector's biggest wins this year is Netflix, up 12%." ([22:38])

Company Highlights Several companies are spotlighted for their performance and strategic moves:

• Disney and TripAdvisor: Brian Belsky points to Disney as a value play due to its fair valuation and strong consumer base, despite broader sector challenges.

  "You've got a Stock with about 11, 15, 22% earnings growth in the years ahead, trading at 10 times earnings." ([18:13])

• PIMCO Advisory Board: Announcements include Janet Yellen, Raghuram Rajan, and Gordon Brown joining PIMCO’s Global Advisory Board, signaling significant leadership changes.

  "Former U.S. treasury Secretary and Fed Chair Janet Yellen joining the Global Advisory Board of PIMCO." ([26:34])

• Health Equity and Amgen: Jenny Harrington discusses strategic investments in health-related stocks, highlighting Health Equity's resilience post-cyberattack and Amgen's strong pipeline and revenue growth.

  "Health Equity is very attractive... Amgen has an attractive balance sheet and a good profile of its pipeline." ([29:37])

Economic Outlook The panel assesses the broader economic indicators:

• Recession Concerns: Both Joe Terranova and Kerry Firestone agree there are no immediate signs of a recession, although concerns about a potential slowdown persist.

  "There are no signs of recession." ([16:51])

• Consumer Spending: Brian Belsky underscores the robustness of consumer spending, citing strong year-over-year growth rates and positive indicators like PC data ([20:32]).

Dividend Strategies The discussion transitions to dividend-focused investment strategies as a hedge against tariff-induced volatility:

• Dividend Aristocrats: Brian Belsky highlights the stability of Dividend Aristocrats, companies with 25+ years of dividend growth, identifying key picks like Cisco and Medtronic.

  "If you've paid and raised a dividend for 25 years straight, you've got such great control over your business." ([43:10])

• Wolf Research's List: A curated list of dividend stocks including Walmart, Procter & Gamble, and Chevron is presented as potential shelters during tariff storms.

  "They are all just solid, high quality, well managed, you know, take shelter in the storm is exactly the right way to say." ([43:51])

Closing Remarks and Future Outlook As the episode concludes, the committee reflects on the mixed signals in the market. Jenny Harrington notes the potential for sectors like healthcare to sustain growth, while Brian Belsky emphasizes the importance of quality and valuation in investment choices. The looming auto tariff announcement on April 2nd remains a critical factor that could significantly influence market direction.

Notable Quotes:

• "Can the bounce continue? It's been a good bounce. S and P is up 5% or so from the low." – Scott Wapner ([01:32])
• "A slowdown is not a recession. And a 10% correction is not a bear market." – Joe Terranova ([17:02])
• "The only thing good about this is the revenue growth." – Joe Terranova ([22:25])
• "Dividend Aristocrats are stocks that have paid and raised a dividend for 25 years straight." – Brian Belsky ([43:10])

Conclusion The March 26 episode of Halftime Report provides a nuanced exploration of the current market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of strategic investment choices amidst tariff uncertainties and sector-specific performances. While the recent market bounce offers opportunities, the experts caution against complacency, advocating for a disciplined approach focused on quality, valuation, and diversification to navigate the complexities of the trading landscape.