CNBC Halftime Report: "Can the Rally Find New Footing?" – March 17, 2026
Host: Mike Santoli (guest-hosting for Scott Wapner)
Panel: Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Brian Belski, Josh Brown
Special Guests: Donald Trump (President), Marco Rubio (Secretary of State/official), Irish Prime Minister/Official
Main Theme:
Assessing the resilience of the current market rally amid geopolitical unrest (US-Iran conflict), higher oil prices, shifting investor strategies, and areas of opportunity, with live breaking news from the political frontlines.
1. Episode Overview
This Halftime Report episode offers front-line market analysis as the US continues military operations in Iran, global oil prices jump, and Wall Street seeks clarity on the path forward. The show includes an extended segment with President Donald Trump, officials, and international counterparts—offering geopolitical context directly impacting markets. The investment panel then debates the market's technicals, sector rotations, the impact of oil, private credit concerns, and actionable stock ideas for the volatile environment.
2. Key Discussion Points and Insights
A. Geopolitical Update: Trump on Iran, NATO, and Global Partnerships (00:54–29:22)
- Iran Conflict: President Trump claims rapid military successes, touts US capability to quickly decimate Iranian military and infrastructure:
"Iran is just a military operation. To me, Iran is something that was essentially largely over in two or three days because the Navy was wiped out almost immediately." – Donald Trump (06:18)
- NATO Fractures: Trump repeatedly criticizes NATO allies for lack of cooperation, specifically in the Iran operation and previous dealings in Ukraine. He threatens to reconsider US commitment:
"We spend trillions of dollars on NATO...I mean, it's certainly something that we should think about. I don't need Congress for that decision, as you probably know. I can make that decision myself." – Donald Trump (05:17)
- Partnerships and Trade:
- Good relations with China; next summit with President Xi planned for five–six weeks out.
- Frustration with the UK and PM Keir Starmer for only offering support after-the-fact and for "disastrous" energy and immigration policies (20:56)
- Cuba/Venezuela: Plans for Cuba policy changes; lauds US–Venezuela relations.
- Analogy & History: Trump invokes Churchill and WWII analogies regarding the moral imperative of blocking Iran’s nuclear ambition.
B. International Reactions: Irish Prime Minister’s View (12:15–15:31; 23:47–25:21)
- Stresses importance of transatlantic partnership, need for peace, and Europe’s sanctions against Iran.
- Acknowledges Iran’s suppression and role as regional agitator but emphasizes learning peace from Ireland’s own history.
- Pushes back on Trump/EU immigration narratives, citing robust legal pathways and economic benefits from migration.
C. Market Macro: Oil, the War, and the Market’s Resilience (29:22–36:28)
- Market Attempts a Rally: S&P 500 up ~0.33% at midday, oil at $94.55, rally attempt after a 5% recent pullback.
- Oil & Equities Relationship:
- Market can withstand oil in the $85–$100 range; >$100–$105 is the pain threshold.
"The equity market does not like oil prices above 100, above $105. That seems as though to be the breaking point." – Joe Terranova (30:48)
- Market can withstand oil in the $85–$100 range; >$100–$105 is the pain threshold.
- Economic Fundamentals Resilient:
- Atlanta Fed GDP tracker solid at 2.7%.
- Weekly jobless claims strong; retail sales, industrial production trending up.
- AI as a continuing tailwind; consumer spending robust—"consumer is doing just fine." – Stephanie Link (32:05)
D. Sector Rotation and Modern Investor Behavior (36:28–39:43)
- Rotation Into Cyclicals, Energy, Financials:
- Value stocks outperforming growth; energy, banks, and industrials strong.
- Investors are "rotating" rather than fleeing during downturns.
"I'm going to use the word rotation for the millionth time, but I think it's the most important concept." – Josh Brown (34:19)
- Private Market Panic vs Public Market Stability:
- Most panic is in private credit, not showing up in junk bond ETFs.
E. Financials Debate (37:04–44:55)
- Transition to Earnings-Driven Market: Shift from multiple expansion, now focusing on sector earnings quality—2026 outlook strong.
- Disagreement on Financial Sector Positioning:
- Debate on whether financials were over- or under-owned.
- Small-cap financials highlighted as underappreciated area:
"No, everyone's missed the move in the small cap financials which has been actually quite good." – Marco Rubio (39:03)
F. Private Credit Concerns—Systemic or Not? (40:55–46:13)
- 66–69% of respondents worried private credit stress could reduce growth or create systemic risk, but not the top concern (oil and war in Middle East ranked higher).
- Panel not overly alarmed—see it more as an ongoing risk to be monitored.
G. AI, Tech, and Key Stocks: Nvidia Spotlight (46:13–51:18)
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (audio clip): $1T+ in Blackwell and Rubin order visibility ("baseline, baseline, baseline").
- Panel Views:
- Nvidia praised for fundamental consistency and must-have core position despite recent sideways trading.
"You can’t expect the company to have an 800 plus percent gain over a 24 month period...you’re going to see a degree of maturity." – Joe Terranova (48:57)
- Stephanie Link voices concerns about opportunity cost if the stock doesn't move up on strong news (50:21); also equally wary about Broadcom.
- Nvidia praised for fundamental consistency and must-have core position despite recent sideways trading.
H. Actionable Stock Ideas & Final Trades (53:11–58:44)
- ServiceNow (NOW): Stephanie Link’s new buy. Down 44% from highs, attractive valuation and strong growth metrics; upcoming analyst day seen as a catalyst (53:19).
- Delta Airlines (DAL): Joe Terranova sees defenses against rising costs, pull-forward in travel bookings.
- Uber (UBER): Game-changer with autonomous driving partnerships; expanding into 28 cities.
"I think they're checkmating the game...they are going to have the broadest network of partners who are offering autonomous rides." – Josh Brown (55:52)
- Final Trades:
- Josh Brown: "Remain long Uber." (58:26)
- Brian Belski (as Marco Rubio): "We like the small cap banks. Pinnacle Financial." (58:32)
- Stephanie Link: "Bank of America. 1.2 times book value, still down 14% from its highs." (58:38)
- Joe Terranova: "eBay, bought at $81 last October. Up 4% today." (58:44)
3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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On NATO/EU Relations:
"I'm disappointed in NATO...it's certainly something we should think about. I don't need Congress for that decision." – Donald Trump (05:17)
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On Market Sentiment:
"If you sell when the S&P falls 5%, I'm going to look like an imbecile in like three weeks. So I'm not going to do it." – Josh Brown (34:19)
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On Oil’s Market Impact:
"The equity market does not like oil prices above 100, above $105." – Joe Terranova (30:48)
-
On Immigration and Europe:
"You've allowed millions and millions and millions of people to come into your country that shouldn't be there...Europe is a different place." – Donald Trump (20:56) "But fundamentally, I think sometimes Europe gets characterized wrongly in terms of it being overrun...It's much more robust now, much more stronger mechanism in place." – Irish Prime Minister (23:55)
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On AI and Jobs:
"Everybody seems to want to believe that there's going to be less jobs. I could build your case there are actually going to be more jobs." – Marco Rubio (as Brian Belski) (54:19)
4. Timestamps for Key Segments
| Timestamp | Topic / Segment | |------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:54–29:22 | Special segment with President Trump, UK/China/Iran/NATO/cabinet | | 29:22 | Mike Santoli recaps: Market & geopolitical takeaways | | 30:48 | Oil/equities correlation (Joe Terranova) | | 32:05 | Economic resilience data (Stephanie Link) | | 34:19 | Investor behavior & rotations (Josh Brown) | | 37:04–39:43 | Financial sector earnings & positioning debate | | 40:55 | Private credit concerns (Steve Liesman) | | 46:13–51:18 | Nvidia & tech sector discussion (Jensen Huang audio, panel) | | 53:11–53:98 | Steph’s new buy: ServiceNow | | 55:11 | Delta Airlines, Uber’s robotaxi plans (Josh Brown) | | 58:26–58:44 | Final Trades |
5. Tone & Style
- Conversational, lively back-and-forth
- Real-time analysis/takes on fast-moving events
- Equally focused on market mechanics and macro/political developments
6. Summary Table – Panel’s Stock Picks
| Panelist | Stock Pick(s) | Thesis | Timestamp | |---------------------|-----------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------| | Josh Brown | Uber | Autonomous ride partnerships, long-term growth game-changer | 58:26 | | Brian Belski (Rubio)| Pinnacle Financial (Small cap banks) | Underappreciated rally, hidden value | 58:32 | | Stephanie Link | Bank of America | Attractive valuation, earnings/credit quality, down from highs | 58:38 | | Joe Terranova | eBay | Value realized post-purchase, momentum stock | 58:44 |
7. Conclusion: Rally vs. Resistance
The Halftime Panel sees today's environment as one where investor rotation and sector strength help the market withstand repeated geopolitical shocks—oil is a risk, private credit a watch item, but economic and earnings fundamentals remain robust. The consensus: wait for certainty and you’ll miss the rally. But selectivity in sectors and stocks, with a tactical lens, will be key as the year unfolds.
End of Summary