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Halftime Report
Can the Rally Find New Footing 3/17/26
00:55:59
Michael Santoli and the Investment Committee debate whether the market can hold this rally and what stocks need to keep going higher. Plus, the desk debates whether private credit concerns are overblown. Steve Liesman joins us with the latest from the space. And later, the Committee share their latest portfolio moves. Investment Committee Disclosures
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Narrator/Commercial Voice
A rich life isn't a straight line to a destination on the horizon. Sometimes it takes an unexpected turn with detours, new possibilities and even another passenger or three. And with 100 years of navigating ups and downs, you can count on Edward Jones to help guide you through it all. Because life is a winding path made rich by the people you walk it with. Let's find your rich together. Edward Jones Member, SIPC before we had
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Marco Rubio
AT&T business wireless coverage, our delivery GPS wasn't the most reliable. Once our driver had to do a 14 point turn to get back on route. A 14 point turn, an influencer even livestream the whole thing. Not good for business. Now with AT&T business wireless, routes are updating on the fly and deliveries are on time. And the influencer did get us 53
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Donald Trump
new followers though at&t business Wireless connecting changes everything. I'm Scott Wapner and you're listening to CNBC's Halftime Report, the podcast the most profitable hour of the trading day. We record this live weekdays at 12 Eastern. Listen in. You're listening to Halftime Report in progress. Further if I didn't terminate the Iran nuclear deal given to us, one of the worst deals ever made by Barack Hussein Obama, remember when they sent Boeing 757s over there loaded with cash, hundreds of millions of dollars, you would have been very happy. This was a wonderful. They said hundreds of millions. People forget that. Does anybody remember? Right? You remember hundreds of millions of dollars in a Boeing 757. I think they had two of them loaded, they took the seats out and they put cash. And it was so much that there wasn't a bank in Virginia, Maryland or D.C. that had any money left. They stripped them of all their money, put it into place, sent it to Iran almost as ransom. That's not going to happen with Trump. And nobody ever did anything about it. Nobody ever said anything. Can you imagine if I did that? So they've been a threat for a long time, but they've really been a threat if, if I didn't terminate Obama's horrible deal that he made, the Iran nuclear deal, you would have had a nuclear war. Four years ago you would have had, you would have had nuclear holocaust and you would have had it again if we didn't bomb the site. So when somebody is working with us that says they didn't think Iran was a threat, we don't want those people because. And there are some people, I guess I would say that, but they're not smart people or they're not savvy people. Iran was a tremendous threat, and virtually every NATO nation. Now, this is the thing. If they told me it wasn't a threat, and therefore they don't want to help. But when they say it was a threat and it was a major threat, every one of them, I think every one of them, I don't know of one that said they're not a threat. But when they say it was a threat but we're not going to help, I think they're very foolish. You know, it's interesting. It's interesting because I could say this, that what's happening in Ukraine, we're probably in there for $400 billion. We don't spend any money anymore. They buy it from us and they pay full price. But Biden gave them between 350 and $400 billion of equipment in cash. Someday they'll have to find out about the cash, and you could say that wasn't a threat. You know, we're helping them, so we helped them and they didn't help us. And I think that's a very bad thing for NATO. Are there any repercussions for NATO? And are you still going to China? Well, yeah, on China, it's a little different story. We're resetting the meeting and it looks like it'll take place in about five weeks. We're working with China. They were fine with it. We're going to. I look forward to seeing President Xi. He looks forward to seeing me, I think. But I do look forward to seeing we have a good relationship with China. China actually is. Has become economically for us, very good. Very good. As you know, it's much different than it was in the past. And we have a very good working relationship with China. So we're making it in about five or six weeks.
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Mike Santoli
Mr. President.
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Donald Trump
Mr. President. Mr. President, for not supporting you on this. Any repercussions? Well, no. I just think that it's not good for a partnership when they say what you're doing is a great thing. But we're not going to help. Mr. President, what you did is a great thing, but we're not going to help.
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Marco Rubio
Mr. President, Iran because the Iranian regime
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Donald Trump
has told Sky News if you put
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Marco Rubio
boots on the ground in Iran, it will be another Vietnam.
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Donald Trump
Are you afraid of that? No, I'm not afraid of. I'm really not afraid of anything.
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Stephanie Link
Are you rethinking the United States relationship with NATO possibly getting out?
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Donald Trump
Well, I'm disappointed in NATO, that we spend trillions of dollars on NATO. Think of it, trillions over the Years, many trillions of dollars. It's one of the reasons we have deficits and we help other countries and when they don't help us, I mean, it's certainly something that we should think about. I don't need Congress for that decision, as you probably know. I can make that decision myself. I'd work with some very smart people and I'd always deal with Congress anyway, but I don't need Congress for that decision. But you know, when you, when you say rethink, I'm not. I have nothing currently in mind. But I will say that I'm not exactly thrilled when we help them with Ukraine. Look, Ukraine would have been over in one day if we didn't help. Frankly, Ukraine would have been over the first day. They had the best equipment in the world. It was our equipment given by sleepy Joe Biden. No charge. No charge. Hundreds. Hundreds of billions of dollars of the best equipment in the world. No charge. I will say that I'm not happy about it. Mr. President. Mr. President, what's your relationship with the question one on Iran and one on Cuba? Is Iran now a bigger foreign policy priority for you than China? And on Cuba, the Cuban government? Iran is just a military operation. To me, Iran is something that was essentially largely over in two or three days because the Navy was wiped out almost immediately. The Air Force came next. The anti aircraft came next. I mean, we're flying over Iran. We could take out their electric capacity in one hour. We have all the. There's nothing they can do right now because everything is knocked out. They have no, again, no radar, no anti aircraft. They have nothing and we don't. And it was a decision I made. We discussed it. Pete, Marco, J.D. all of us, Chris, we discussed it. We can knock out their electricity in a matter of minutes if we wanted to. There's nothing they can do about it. We can knock out their oil in Cargill and the only thing we didn't take down was their oil. Because if we knock out, I call them the pipes, very complex, but if you do that, it'll take them forever to rebuild. Meaning whoever. And hopefully it's a sane group of people, but whoever it is that's going to be running that and we're going to try to get people that are going to run it well and you know, it's going to be a prosperous, wonderful place. It used to be, you know, if you go back, it used to be a very. The people are great, the people are smart and energetic and it used to be very successful. Now it's A country run by fear. It's a country where they tell protesters, don't go outside because if you do, we're going to kill you. Mr. President. Well, Cuba right now is very bad shape. They're talking to Marco and we'll be doing something with Cuba very soon. We're really focused on this, but we're dealing with, dealing with Cuba. Marco, do you want to say a couple of words about it?
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Marco Rubio
Yeah.
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Marco Rubio (continued)
I mean, Cuba has an economy that doesn't work and a political and governmental system they can't fix. Yesterday's not dramatic enough. It's not going to fix it. So they've got some big decisions to make over there.
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Mike Santoli
But Secretary Rubio, do you support, and I know this is up to Congress,
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Donald Trump
but do you support easing the Cuban, the trade embargo if you get more cooperation from Havana?
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Marco Rubio (continued)
Well, I'm not going to discuss what we would talk about or not. Suffice it to say that the embargo is tied to political change on the island. The law, the embargo is codified. But the bottom line is their economy doesn't work. It's a non functional economy. It's an economy that has survived that revolution. It's not even a revolution. That thing they have, has survived on subsidies from the Soviet Union and now from Venezuela, they don't get subsidies anymore. So they're in a lot of trouble. And the people in charge are, they don't know how to fix it. So they have to get new people in charge. That's what.
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Donald Trump
And the relationship we have with Venezuela has been, I think you could almost say incredible. It's been really good. It's been good for Venezuela and it's been good for us. And I congratulate the Venezuelan baseball team because that was a big, that was a big win. And I guess they play another game tonight in the finals. This is the first time they've ever been in the finals and it was pretty exciting.
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Josh Brown
Yes, Iran is just a military operation to you, but do you not have
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Donald Trump
a day after plan?
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Joe Terranova
And if so, what is your day
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Donald Trump
after plan for Iran? Well, we have a lot. Look, if we, if we left right now, it would take 10 years for them to rebuild. But we're not ready to leave yet. But we'll be leaving in the near future. We'll be leaving in pretty much the very near future. But right now they've been decimated from every standpoint. And again, we've had great support from countries in the Middle east. Great support, but we've had no support from Essentially, no support from NATO. Mr. President, what about your relationship, Mr. President, what about your relationship with London? Has it been damaged by the fact that Keir Starmer isn't supporting you in this war? And has your opinion of Keir Starmer changed because of this? Well, he hasn't been support. No. They make a lot of money on trade with the United States. I went out of my way, as you know, they couldn't make a deal with Biden because they had no real administration to make a deal. Biden. But we made a deal. We made a good deal for them and frankly, probably wasn't appreciated. I do look forward to seeing the King. He's going to be coming, as you know, very shortly. But. But no, I was disappointed because Kiir was willing to send two aircraft carriers after we won, because essentially there's no threat for the aircraft carriers right now. And I said, no, no, we want things sent before the war, not after the war is won. So, yeah, I'm disappointed with. I like him. I think he's a nice man, but I'm disappointed. You see that man right there? You know who that is?
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Irish Prime Minister / Irish Official
Churchill.
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Donald Trump
Winston Churchill. The late, great Winston Churchill. And Barack Hussein Obama did not want his bust in his office. Did you know that? And Barack Hussein Obama sent that bus back to England. He didn't. They didn't want it. And when I came in, I was asked if I wanted it. I said, absolutely, I want it. And I put it right there. Winston Churchill. And, you know, unfortunately, Kira is not Winston Churchill. No, no, hold it.
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Irish Prime Minister / Irish Official
Just go ahead, hold it, hold it. Just make a number of points. First of all, I think, notwithstanding what has happened, the transatlantic relationship between Europe and the US is very, very important on a number of fronts. And I think we've had issues over the last year or two where we settled them. And I think many of these leaders engage with you, particularly on trade initially. Remember all the fuss last year, but we got a landing zone between Europe and the US and I think we can get a landing zone again. And I think I just met with Keir Starmer last week. The British Irish relationship was a very important one. Churchill was a great wartime leader, although in Ireland, there was kind of a different perspective in terms of. During our own War of Independence, he created his own bit of difficulties for us. But that said, he was a great wartime hero. Keir Sarmer has done a lot to reset the Irish British relationship. I just want to put that on the record. But I do believe that he's a very earnest, sound person. I think you have a capacity to get on with. You've got on with him before, and you've got on with other European leaders as well. And I think you have that capacity again. And I think everyone exists. I mean, you cannot have a rogue state with a nuclear weapon or the capacity for nuclear weapon. Iran was the sponsor of terrorism. We sanctioned Iran. All European countries did. And the ARGC in particular, it's a terrorist organization. They sponsored Hamas, they sponsored Hezbollah, the Houthis. They created mayhem, a most maligned force in the Middle East. The Irish position has always been ultimately, can we resolve this to, you know, can we get peace? And obviously there's preconditions before you get to that situation. We had our own conflict, which went on for 30 years, and we learned a lot from that in terms of how to try and bring about peace. And I think I've listened to, to you in terms of. You're correct. I mean, our hearts go to the Iranian people who have been repressed and suppressed for so many years, culminating in that savage murder of thousands and thousands of Iranians some months gone. No one was in a position to do anything about that. And likewise with Ukraine. I mean, the Russians did invade Ukraine, have attacked civilian infrastructure and so on like that. And for the people of Ukraine who just want peace and an opportunity to live, I think there is, I think we have to continue to work to see can we bring peace, different regime to Iran, where Iranians can live in peace again and the people in the Middle east can live in peace. And you're doing your bit there in terms of work in Gaza and so on like that. And I think that's what we want, is a peaceful resolution of conflict. That's where we come from as a small nation. We've been peacekeepers all our lives and we're the longest serving nation in terms of provision of peacekeeping forces in the world, as it turns out. But we think ultimately all conflicts come to an end. And I think we have to try and work towards that end. And I'm sure European leaders and the US Administration will engage and hopefully we can get a landing zone.
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Donald Trump
I mean, the only thing, and I agree with everything you said, but we helped with Ukraine.
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Irish Prime Minister / Irish Official
Yes.
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Donald Trump
And they don't help with Iran. And they all acknowledge that Iran can't have a nuclear weapon. You yourself say, you know, these were, these are horrendous people. These are the worst people. And going back to Hitler. Right, Going back to Hitler, these are the worst people. That's a long time ago. And there's been Nothing close. Every problem, every so many deaths. 90% of the people that got blown up by landmines, the land mines, they loved Soleimania. We killed them. If we didn't, it might be a different story because he was a horrible person, but he was a very powerful person and leader, smart, but we killed him. If we didn't, I think he'd have it. I did. But I think we'd have maybe a different situation. It wouldn't have been so easy as it has been because it has been very easy. You know, it's all of their military is there, but you can always have somebody drop a mine in the water. That's like terrorism. And then you have the people that own the billion dollar ship saying, well, let's not move that ship yet because we want. So we thought that Europe would help that because they do have some minesweepers. But it's amazing that, you know, they all said what a great job they would call me congratulating us on the great job we did with respect to Iran. And we knocked the hell out of them. They're no longer the bully of the Middle East. They were known as the bully of the Middle east and they're not the bully anymore. But you would have thought they would have said, we'd love to send a couple of minesweepers. It's not a big deal, it doesn't cost very much money. But they didn't do that. So you know it. I think it's very unfair to the United States. Not to me, but to the United States. Go ahead, please.
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Narrator/Commercial Voice
Keir Starmett isn't making.
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Donald Trump
She's a fantastic reporter, by the way.
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Josh Brown
Go ahead.
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Narrator/Commercial Voice
The Prime Minister isn't making the case to the British public as to why he should be supporting you. Could you do that now and talk to the UK and to GB News viewers about why it's in their interest that we help you?
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Donald Trump
Well, because we have a tremendous long term relationship with the uk. I mean, people would say it's the best. I don't want to get into that. But we've had. It was the longest, the oldest should be the best. Always was the best until Kir came along and now. And I like him, he's a nice man. He says everything beautiful. He's a very nice man with a beautiful family. Everything's perfect. But he doesn't produce and I think it's very inexpensive. I just said, you don't have to send me aircraft carriers, send me a couple of minesweepers. We don't need your aircraft Carriers, but even the aircraft carriers. He would only send them after we essentially won. I mean, he's sending them when there are no planes left. When the missiles are down to 8%. They have like 8% of the missiles. The rest, we demolish the missiles and the factories, largely the factories are going even as we speak to. They just hit another factory. They may have a lot of, they have a lot of missile factories, they have a lot of drone factories. And so he's, you know, wants to send them when we don't need them. But we'd like to have minesweepers because just in case we don't know that there are any mines now because we wiped out. I think 24. They actually have. Think of this for a country. They have 24 boats that do nothing but put mines in the water. This doesn't sound like a great country. This doesn't sound like a friendly country. But we killed all of those boats. They're at the bottom of the sea. But. So we don't even know if there are any mines there. But if there are, you know, we'd like to have a little help in finding them. Most probably, most importantly, would you like to change your mind?
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Josh Brown
Do you have confidence in Keir Starmer?
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Donald Trump
Would you prefer to deal with. Well, it's not for me, it's really for the people of the UK to have confidence, of course, but is he just. I mean I've been very critical of. And I did it in a friendly way. I said if you don't change your energy thing and get away from windmills and go back to oil and gas and you know, you own, you have something that no other country has. Very few countries have anything like it. The North Sea, you have some of the greatest oil and oil deposits in the entire world. The North Sea, they don't use it. You buy a lot of your oil from Norway. You know where they get their oil from? The North Sea. And you pay a. And I tell them and they. You have the better part of the North Sea. So why aren't they taking the oil from the North Sea? Why are they buying oil from Norway? But they have windmills all over the country, destroying those gorgeous Scottish fields and those beautiful fields all over. The windmills which don't work, they're tremendously expensive. And the best testament to that is the windmills are made in China. But China doesn't use them. You know what China uses? Coal. They're building 58 coal fired plants right now and that's up to them. But these foolish countries that are buying windmills, putting them out of business. I'm proudly telling you that we're going to try and have no windmills built in the United States during my. They're very bad. They're very bad environmentally. They kill the birds, they're unsightly, they make a lot of noise. And for some reason, the environmentalists love windmills. Okay.
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Marco Rubio
You say he's a very nice man.
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Donald Trump
I think he's a nice man. I think he's a nice man. But I disagree with him on two things, primarily immigration. His immigration policy is a disaster and his energy policy is a disaster. And they're about the biggest policies you can have. You've allowed millions and millions and millions of people to come into your country that shouldn't be there. And by the way, that's all over Europe. Europe is a different place. It's a different place. And you know, I originate, to put it nicely, I originate, many of us do, from Europe. I love Europe. I spent a lot of time in Europe. It's a different place. Bad things have happened to Europe, very bad things. And you better do something about immigration and you better do something about energy or you won't have a Europe.
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Joe Terranova
What's your time frame, Mr. President, for
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Irish Prime Minister / Irish Official
when cargo ships can safely go through
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Donald Trump
the Strait of the. It won't be, I don't believe, too long. We're knocking the hell out of the coast. It's basically the coast and the water and it won't be too long. And the Middle Eastern states, including Israel, by the way, who has been terrific, the Middle Eastern states have been helping us a lot. Go ahead, Hugh, please. Mr. President, on these prices, what do you have to say to the people in Ireland who are paying sky high
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Josh Brown
prices because of your war in Iran?
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Donald Trump
Well, I think the people in Ireland are very happy that I'm getting rid of. I, I have a lot of friends from Ireland. They're very happy that I'm getting rid of a nuclear power, a nuclear terrorist. And as soon as that war is over, which will be soon, your prices are going to drop like a rock. You watch. I've been very good at projecting.
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Stephanie Link
What do you think about our president's
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Donald Trump
comments that Iran is breaking international law?
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Stephanie Link
What do you think about our president's comment?
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Donald Trump
Can you speak? You speak it right into your phone. Mr. President, how do you respond to
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Josh Brown
the Iraqi militia groups against the US
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Marco Rubio
Embassy and consulate in Kurza region?
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Donald Trump
You want to answer that? You want to.
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Marco Rubio
Yeah, Marco, obviously, Secretary of state has control over the embassy. Look, there have been A lot of militia attacks against our base or our embassy in Iran. I think Marco's done a good job of limiting the number of people who are at that embassy. So we can provide essential functions, but also protect our people.
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Donald Trump
But it goes to show there are
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Marco Rubio
a lot of terrorists in that region of the world, and we've got to eliminate when we find them.
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Donald Trump
And you can't give them nuclear weapons. You can give them rifles, you can give them guns. You can't give them nuclear weapons. I think we agree very strongly. Yes. Excuse me.
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Irish Prime Minister / Irish Official
Just first of all, I would say Europe is still a very good place to.
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Donald Trump
Just to let you know. I'm glad to hear that.
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Irish Prime Minister / Irish Official
And our view is you have to have robust and fair rules around migration. But on the other hand, a lot of people, you know, within the European Union, we have free mobility of people. And in Ireland, our population is growing, but in a very positive way. Our economy is going well because we're attracting a lot of people from Europe and beyond into work legally and validly in our country. In fact, I love if we could develop a legal pathway between the US And Ireland into the future because of our history and so on like that, that we could have a legal pathway because no one is in favor of illegal migration and so forth. So you have to have robust rules for that. But fundamentally, I think sometimes Europe gets characterized wrongly in terms of it being overrun or whatever like that. It's much more robust now, much more stronger mechanism in place to facilitate legal migration. And I think it's important that that understanding is there. We need more economic growth in Europe. It doesn't have the same focus on innovation as you do here in US Discussed that earlier with the vice president. In terms of technology, in terms of AI, we need to pivot more to innovation as opposed to regulation. And I think investing in people, you know, and that's the key to, I think, our collective future. We do take care Lessons.
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Stephanie Link
Has said that your war against Iran is illegal. It's an attack on international law.
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Donald Trump
Who said that?
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Irish Prime Minister / Irish Official
The Irish president.
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Donald Trump
Look, he's lucky I exist. That's all I can say. Because if you're going to allow countries that are sick and demented and they are demented to have nuclear weapons, everybody in the whole world should be very thankful. And I'm disappointed in NATO. Very disappointed. I'm disappointed in a couple of other countries, too. But they should be very thankful that this group of people feels the way we do. Because if a country like Iran was allowed to have the power of a nuclear weapon if we didn't stop them. I stopped them twice. I stopped him my first term. When I terminated the Iran nuclear deal, which was Barack Obama's deal. It was one of the. Maybe the worst deal I've ever seen. It gave everything to Iran, including billions of dollars in green cash. I don't mean cash. I mean green cash flown over by airplanes. I can't to this day believe that was allowed to happen. And come to think of it, it would be a good thing for somebody to look at. How could does the President have the power to hand hundreds of millions of dollars of cash to terrorists? But it began with that. And I terminated that deal. If I didn't terminate that deal, we might not be here right now. If I didn't terminate that deal, unbelievable nuclear holocaust would have taken place. And then I did it a second time. When we hit them with the B2 bombers and we totally obliterated their potential nuclear weapon that they would have had in less than one month. They think two weeks, but in less than one month. And it would have been, I believe it would have been a much different world than it is right now. We have to go. We're going to a lunch. So maybe we'll take one more nice one.
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Marco Rubio
Big Tech.
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Stephanie Link
Can I ask you how you're doing
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Narrator/Commercial Voice
with your legal case against the BBC and their fake news documentary?
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Donald Trump
Well, BBC was incredible. What they did is they had me speaking something I never said and I've never seen anything quite like it. You know, CBS had that. We had the situation on 60 Minutes. And not the current owners, the past owners. The current owners, I think, are good. Ellison. But BBC took it a step further. They actually had. They put words in my mouth and they said I said some pretty bad things. And I didn't say them. It was AI generated. And I said, I never said that. In fact, some of my people said, wow, that was pretty bad stuff you said. I said, what did I say? You know, I'm pretty good at this stuff. I mean, if you can go through years of these press conferences and you're a popular president of the United States that won in a landslide that when all seven swing states that got record numbers of votes, I mean, so I guess I'm okay at this stuff. I said, I never said that. And then we found out it was AI generated and they admit they made a mistake. BBC. But I watched them this morning for some crazy reason, and it was so inaccurate. Their reporting on the war was unbelievable. We have decimated that country. And if you watch BBC, it's almost like they're fighting us to a draw. They're not fighting us to a draw. It was very inaccurate news. It was fake news. So I'm very proud of the term fake news because it was my term. I came up with it. But it's no longer accurate. It really is. It's corrupt, fraudulent news. It really is. It's fraudulent. It's not just fake. It's beyond fake. It's really criminal what they do. But I watched BBC this morning and I don't know much about BBC other than what, what took place because people were calling me saying that was a terrible thing. You said. I said what did I say? And I said I never said that. And we checked it. You agree? They agree it was.
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Mike Santoli
You've been listening to President Trump at an event at the White House with the Irish prime Minister. He's been addressing the reluctance of NATO allies to participate in security operations in the president. Persian Gulf says US And Israel can finish the job in Iran without him. Also a little bit of news perhaps. He says that the meeting between him and President Xi of China will occur a bit later than anticipated. Five to six weeks is what he said. Welcome to Halftime Report. Mike Santoli in today for Scott Wapner with me for the hour, Joe Terranova, Stephanie Link, Brian Belsky and Josh Brown. Let's get a quick check on the markets. Had an attempt to follow through on yesterday's bounce. The s and P500 up about a third of a percent. It was at its highs about twice as much of a gain. The dow is up 111 points. Crude, you see it there, 9455, it's up 1%. It's been above 95. When the S and P was at its low, it's been below 94. So that's been the game continuing there. So let's just talk about this bounce attempt, I guess we could call it. Joe, it's understandable to me why it has begun entering this week in a logical spot, which is a 5% decline in the S&P 500. We got to almost to the 200 day moving average. Seasonal factors start to turn better in the second half of March. And of course you have this residual hope there that we've reached the point of maximum uncertainty. And in Iran maybe oil has seen its highs. Still something to prove I would argue though for the rally itself. What are you looking at?
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Joe Terranova
Well, I think what's most important right now is that we break the correlation between higher oil prices and and lower equity prices. And the appearance over the last several days is that in fact we're doing so. I also believe that we've established where that breaking point for equities is as it relates to oil. So the equity market does not like oil prices above 100, above $105. That seems as though to be the breaking point. It appears as though the equity market is comfortable as it was in 2011, 2012. In 2013 when the average price of oil in each One of those three years was $95. The market was comfortable in that environment with oil. So I think if we, we just basically elevate the range of oil to 85 towards 100, I think we could live in that world. It's when oil spikes well beyond that that the markets don't like it.
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Steve Liesman
Staff.
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Mike Santoli
I mean, arguably in the early 2010s, the S&P was at 13, 14 times earnings. Maybe not as much was expected out of out of stocks. But how are you reading what the market's done this week where it's tried to find a little bit of a foothold? Because you actually have seen some of the laggard groups, you know, try to make a little progress this week.
- [32:06]
Stephanie Link
Yeah, and that's exactly where I want to go, actually. Value outperforming growth today and yesterday. Banks actually finally catching somewhat of a bid. Have to watch that. But they've been a laggard and something that we all have been watching because of the private credit concerns. Energy, oil stocks, some industrials are doing well. So it's more of the cyclical story today and some part of yesterday. And I think, Mike, that's because in the face of uncertainties about war and the timing, the economy is holding up. I mean, you got the Atlanta fed tracker at 2.7%. Weekly jobless claims last week were really good. I expect them to continue to be very low in the 215 range to 220. Retail sales core was up 4% ISE two months in a row, over 50. So that's the first time that's happened in three years. And industrial production now up for the fourth consecutive month. So in the face of all this, the economy is hanging in. A lot of it is AI driven and that's a nice tailwind and that's going to continue. But the consumer also is doing their part. Yes, it's K Shape, but they're doing their part. When you listen to bank of America, when you listen to MasterCard, when you listen to Visa, last week they were at conferences. Every one of them said the consumer is doing just fine and that's a big part of our economy. So I keep a close eye on it. But I like that least the follow through on the cyclicals based on the data that we're seeing.
- [33:27]
Mike Santoli
I guess the question is, is going to be, Josh, whether that good encouraging evidence is, is going to run up against the potential that we have more friction in the story when it comes to what oil prices are doing, some consumer confidence issues. Since we're two plus weeks into this Iran campaign. I do want to get your take though, Josh, on the general set up here because it's hilarious how we always talk about the s and P500 in one of these sideways phases and say, look how resilient it's rotating away from danger. I've seen said it a million times. And then we get to a point when the decline starts to kind of wear on the index and everyone says, oh, but we haven't seen the flush, it's been too resilient. We need to see people give up on this and to create some kind of a slingshot effect. So where are you looking for evidence that the market either has the makings of that kind of a comeback, Josh, or, you know, we're still waiting.
- [34:19]
Josh Brown
I think the modern investor is just different from what a lot of us are used to. Mike, you're a veteran of the markets like I am, so is Stephanie, so is Joe. But we have to acknowledge the fact that today's investor, they sort of get it like, oh, if I sell when the S and P falls 5%, I'm going to look like an imbecile in like three weeks. So I'm not going to do it. And instead what we're seeing is, I'm going to use the word rotation for the millionth time, but I think it's the most important concept. Investors are flocking to the stocks that are going up right now. And you know, look, the best stocks in the market concept is where is the real strength. And think about the stocks that Joe has been talking about. I've been told, Stephanie, Chevron, Exxon making record highs today. Look at the refiner complex, Marathon, Phillips 66 and of course Valero and, and even like the oil services names, those did get hit a little bit harder during the Iran episode. But they're all right back, Baker Hughes, right back. These things are in substantial uptrends. So I think investors are like, all right, I get it. We're not playing the software game this year. We're not playing the data center game as much this Year, maybe in the industrials, but not in the actual Max 7 stocks. But this game, this is a great game and you're seeing it everywhere. And you can't tell me that's just retail. I know the pros are doing it too. The other thing is the only real panic that we're seeing. It's actually funny. It's in the private market. How do you panic in the private market? It's like. It's like a mime. Like, how do I get out of this invisible box? It doesn't even show up in the, in the junk bond ETFs. So, yeah, we have concerns. Yes, there are issues in the market, there are question marks. But. But I think the modern investor, at least for now, has done a great job rotating, moving to where the money is going and ignoring the things that historically would have put them on the sidelines even three and five years ago. And they just don't race to the sidelines.
- [36:29]
Mike Santoli
I mean, did we have a modern investor 11 months ago, Josh, when everybody was liquidating everything at the lows?
- [36:36]
Josh Brown
I don't know that everybody did that. If you look at Vanguard, you could
- [36:39]
Donald Trump
look at the, the floor.
- [36:41]
Josh Brown
Well, if you look at Vanguard Data, Charles Schwab Data, you look at Fidelity data for 1k flows never stopped. And that's the real money. So seeing $20 billion come out of an spy and then go right back in two months later, I don't really think is what the main body of investors are doing. Look at the 401k flows. They never budged. Nobody sold. And I don't think they'll do it this time either.
- [37:05]
Mike Santoli
We magically got 20% down with nobody selling, I guess. Okay, Flash, Brian, you know, what are you thinking about in terms of field position for the market here? And I'm looking at an S and P. We're at the December lows. Yes, we're up off of last week's bottom. But it doesn't seem as if there's a sort of a tentative nature to this comeback, and maybe that's to be expected because there's a pretty wide range of outcomes we're having to entertain here.
- [37:31]
Marco Rubio
No, I think that's right. But I also think too, to double back on what Josh was saying, take it from the guy that's been doing this since the late 80s. We were always looking for the big flush. The big flush rarely happens. And then people typically, especially in this market, don't get in fast enough. I think that's right. In terms of the, of the moves that we've seen so far. But I think what the market's saying is kind of what we teed up and we talked about our year ahead piece for 2026 when we talked about the market is clearly transitioning from a multiple expansion market to an earnings driven market. Stephanie talks about earnings all the time. We always talk about resilient, resilient, resilient. But from a sector by sector basis the quality of earnings in 2026 is very good. The consistency of earnings growth is very good. I think we tend to make too much out of trying to catch the bottom and some of these things themes quite frankly Mike, with respect to software and trying to catch the falling anvil as I learned a long time ago that old saying. But I do think what's happening today is a very constructive day. Very constructive day. Especially considering the broadening out across both small cap stocks are working. Stephanie talked about financials. We think financials from an earnings perspective are really going to be driving things the second half of the year. And we actually continue to believe both institutional and private wealth clients are way underexposed financials. And we really think that's an area where we're going to see a lot of gains.
- [38:58]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, I'm not so sure about that, Brian. I think financials were the favorite sector coming in to 2026.
- [39:04]
Marco Rubio
All the funds the favorite sector. No way was it the favorite sector. Everyone is trying to play health care because health care in the fourth quarter, Joe was the momentum play. I think financials actually were outperforming well before the fourth quarter quarter. Everyone was trying to think more value side of things and yeah, well industrial. If you go back and look at some of the tape and on this show in particular everyone was trying to chase energy, health care, utilities, consumer staples. They were much more defensively positioned financials. I think at the end of the day though I will say the money center banks. But no, everyone's missed the move in the small cap financials which has been actually quite good. So I don't agree with everyone.
- [39:44]
Joe Terranova
We're just going to disagree. It'd be better if you were here disagree in person. But if you look at a lot of the momentum funds at the end of 2025 they were all significantly overweight. I run one of them financials. You had a lot of people that were coming on the shows and talking about financials being the place to be banks themselves and I think fundamentally a lot of those conditions are still in place but you are seeing a recalibration as in terms of sentiment and positioning for that sector itself. I do agree with you on where we were at the end of 2025, where the market did its job in getting in front of the flush in software, the flush into the private equity names and really pivoting towards the health care names, the defensive names, the material names, the rates that so far have exhibited a strong degree of resiliency.
- [40:36]
Mike Santoli
Guys, we want to get further into this, into this financials issue. Actually. Alternative asset managers, they are rebounding today. But private credit concerns of course, continue to weigh on the space. New data shows it's another issue on the minds of respondents to the latest CNBC Fed survey. Senior economics reporter Steve Liesman joins us with more on all that.
- [40:56]
Steve Liesman
Hey, Steve. Hey, Mike. The war in Iran is top mine for respondents to the CNBC Fed survey, but there is concern that about a more far reaching impact from a downturn in the private credit market. Take a look at some of the data here. Yesterday's close, 66.99. This is on the outlook for the S and P. Now that's come down to 70, 16. But they also are pretty optimistic about a rebound from that lower number from 2026 going to 7627 in 2027. That is. But asked about private credit worries, 66% say they're somewhat concerned it could reduce economic growth, 69%. And this is the one that may matter. If it does that it would create broader systemic risk. In fact, our gauge of systemic risk that we have, 75% now saying it's somewhat elevated. That's the highest we've seen since starting to ask this question about credit markets back a couple years ago. And you can see here it's not the top issue tied for number one, higher oil prices in terms of threats to the economy and the war in the Middle east, continued high inflation policy uncertainty and global economic weakness, which is something to think about in terms of what happens overseas to the economies from oil prices ricocheting back on the US So private credit concern, not a leading one, but something being watched closely for whether there are broader implications for the US Economy. Mike.
- [42:22]
Mike Santoli
Steve, thanks so much. Josh. Love for you to weigh in on this. I mean, two thirds of these respondents are saying that this could be systemic when it may be otherwise, can be characterized as just a little bit of a mismatch between liquidity expectations among certain investors.
- [42:37]
Josh Brown
Yeah, look, I think if you, if you pull those five graphics off the board and six months goes by, we'll have five new ones that we can replace them with new these Concerns are, some of them are evergreen. Like you could throw up, like budget deficit. I mean, it's, it's actually very healthy that we've had multiple compression and a lot of things to worry about in the market this year. It's actually a better setup for people putting dollars to work today than when we're in these moments where everything just seems like it's going to be absolutely perfect. So this stuff is obviously food for thought. Worth talking about. The reality for me though, I'm not one of these Wall street guys. Don't let this shirt and tie fool you. I am a man of the people. My text messages are filled with regular investors, people I know in real life, guys that install alarm systems, insurance salesmen, car dealers. You know what they do when the market's down 5% because oil spiking or when Trump says something out of pocket about tariffs. The first text to me is, all right, what should I buy until that flips? And it might, but until that, that mentality flips, I remain steadfast in what I was saying earlier. I think the investor class has gotten a little bit smarter, a little bit more self aware before they panic would, would attempt another 10% down. Change people's attitudes. Yeah, of course, but that's not the situation, situation that we're in. So, you know, that's, that's the way I think you want to think about the market set up today.
- [44:11]
Mike Santoli
No, I'm with you on that in general, because 5% down doesn't necessarily mean everybody should be screaming and running away. In fact, we had a 5% pullback, Steph, in November and I don't think on any of these metrics you saw the panic in the numbers and we did recover it. So it wasn't exactly like, you know, a new bull market launching, but it was recovery back to new highs. So I guess that's just one way to contextualize all this. Just quickly on the financials though, I do wonder if you're concerned that they haven't been able to make much of great earnings. You know, obviously for the fourth quarter, the idea that they have this nice regulatory Runway, they're going to get capital relief and that they're kind of this sort of little bit of a problem child. When you look at the leadership, first
- [44:56]
Stephanie Link
and foremost, if we wait for certainty, Mike, you're going to miss a big, big move, right? I mean, if you sold on Liberation day, you missed 35% growth for the next year. So to me, the market always climbs a wall of worry to Josh's point. And it's whatever flavor of the month it is in terms of what we're worrying about, that's okay. That's why I always focus on the fundamentals and that's why I always focus on the economy and the data points that we're getting, not only from the government data, but also from the companies. They tell you an awful lot of stuff at these conferences. And that's why I felt really good about, about adding to Truist last week and adding to the financials, down 10, 15% on the year, because I'm not concerned about the credit, the private credit issues for them. In fact, I can make an argument that the, the big six banks have taken market share from the private market industry. They have not been able to do that because of the regulations. And now those regulations are starting to ease. And I think these companies, you see it in the H8 data. I mean, the H8 data, we had great numbers, 18 out of the last 21 weeks. I mean, they're talking about record highs for CNI loans. That's what we want to see from the banks and that's what they're doing and that's what they're telling us that they're doing. So I expect the earnings to be good and for the stocks at these valuations, I think you got to be adding to them.
- [46:13]
Mike Santoli
Speaking of things companies tell us at conferences, we really got to get to Nvidia and what Jensen Huang has been saying over the last day plus and also how the stock has reacted to it. I do just want to have his take on what he was talking about when he threw out that $1 trillion backlog number. Let's listen to, to his comments.
- [46:35]
Jensen Huang
We already have high confidence, high confidence visibility of $1 trillion plus of Blackwell and Rubin. Not anything else, just Blackwell and Rubin. And so, you know, we still have 21 more months of new orders coming in. We still have all of the other things that Nvidia sells. And so I just wanted to give everybody a baseline. The ecosystem needs to know directionally where Nvidia is going. Now, of course, we plan with the supply chain. We help everybody with their capacity building, we prepare all the technology partners so that we can support trillion dollars worth of Blackwell and Rubin. And so it's an incredible thing,
- [47:19]
Mike Santoli
certainly an incredible thing. We still have to figure out how we're going to frame this. Brian, this is $1 trillion seemingly in cumulative orders through the end of 2027 for those two product categories. Right now, consensus top line for Nvidia for this fiscal year and Next it's like 830 billion. So who knows when that stuff filters into revenue, who knows how much of an upside guide this might have been. The stock is sort of shrugging. So how are you thinking about it, Brian?
- [47:47]
Marco Rubio
Well, I think the stock is shrugging because people have been worried about technology. I do think that the most important thing that he talked about was the baseline, baseline, baseline and he's being very consistent in his delivery of information. And I think that makes everybody feel better about the other areas of, of, of what's happening in terms of Nvidia's prices. Think of like in video being the core inside an Apple and then the rest of the inside of the apple could be an amd, a Qualcomm and a Broadcom. And then I think that Apple in general has been bruised because the apple fell from the tree. And so now you got to kind of eat around the bruises. But at the, at the core, Nvidia is proving with respect to its fall fundamental consistency on where this is going. So that's why it absolutely positively, in our view has to be a tactical position in S&P 500 product or growth product for the next 12 to 24 months minimum because of what it's doing fundamentally in providing that fundamental consistency with respect to the trade.
- [48:47]
Mike Santoli
Joe. Nvidia. Nvidia has, you know, it's been sideways for half a year but it has also kept its, most of its outperformance relative to like the NASDAQ 100 over that period.
- [48:57]
Joe Terranova
Yeah, I don't understand why people are so frustrated by performance. I think Brian said it elegantly, elegantly when he described the environment fundamentally for Nvidia. You know who Nvidia ultimately is. I made the comparison yesterday to Aaron Judge. Aaron Judge may have a season where he's only going to hit 35 home runs. He's not going to hit 55 or 60 home runs. That's still a really good season. And if you look at Nvidia's performance over the last six months, it's outperforming the S&P 500. It is year to date the best performing MAG7 and it's delivering on all the metrics that we were told were remarkably important for this company. You can expect the company to have an 800 plus percent gain over a 24 month period like it had from the end of December 2022 through 2024. You're going to see a degree of maturity, you're going to see a moderation in performance that doesn't mean it's a bad stock. It's not at all. It's one of the best performing stocks and probably the top stock to own
- [50:01]
Stephanie Link
in the incremental buyer. Joe.
- [50:03]
Joe Terranova
Yeah.
- [50:04]
Stephanie Link
I mean everybody is in this thing. I'm probably the only one judge is
- [50:08]
Mike Santoli
entering his age 34 season in New York knows he's going to decline.
- [50:11]
Stephanie Link
You've got, you've got 94% of the sell side that have buys on this. This well, so it is a very well loved stock. If it does not go up on great data that they did present yesterday. What is going, what is it going
- [50:21]
Joe Terranova
to mean it's going down?
- [50:22]
Stephanie Link
Look, I'm equally as bothered by and worried about Broadcom because it doesn't act well either and that's gotten a lot crowded as well. I think there's so much more opportunity on the software side especially given what we have seen in terms of the declines and now more reasonable valuation.
- [50:36]
Joe Terranova
But my counterpoint to that would be it does not extrapolate that it means it's going down. Running in place. Running in place. I am not from a risk to reward standpoint. I'm not going to move to the sidelines in the stock just because it's running in place. I think that's a foolish endeavor. I'll maintain my exposure there. I'll be thankful for the 800+ percent that it delivered me while I owned it for those two year periods. I'm not going to move to the sideline.
- [51:02]
Stephanie Link
Opportunity cost. It's opportunity cost.
- [51:03]
Steve Liesman
Right.
- [51:04]
Mike Santoli
And everybody who owns the index is maintaining their 7.7% position in it. So it's hanging around there. We have to run for just a minute up. Next step has a new buy. She'll tell us all about that. Plus we'll break down today's top movers including a pop or delta.
- [51:18]
Steve Liesman
Halftime.
- [51:19]
Mike Santoli
Back in two minutes.
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Donald Trump
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- [53:12]
Mike Santoli
Welcome back. Let's get to Steph's new buy. Steph, you bought ServiceNow. Looks like it's in sort of recovery mode to some degree here.
- [53:19]
Stephanie Link
Well, I hope so.
- [53:20]
Donald Trump
Yeah.
- [53:20]
Stephanie Link
I've been adding to software synopsis Palo Alto. This is a new position though ServiceNow. I've never actually owned it. This stock is down 44% from its high. Trades at 27 times for 20% growth, 13 times EBITDA versus 39 times for its average. Is a company that has MAU growth of 25%, a retention of 98%, an excellent pipeline and operating margin expansion. So I think, I don't know if it's. This is the bottom, but this is quality on sales. I define it as. I have this as a definition. And they have an analyst day in May which I think will be a nice catalyst for, you know, just getting comfort that the growth is still there.
- [53:58]
Mike Santoli
Brian, you know, this has been the kind of stock that sort of faces the burden of price proof that they're not going to get displaced by one way or another. Bill McDermott was here with, with me and, and the group on, you know, I think last week on Friday talking about how I can tell you how to do things that can't actually do it for you that ServiceNow does.
- [54:20]
Marco Rubio
I mean, this is a name too that we love a lot as well, I think at these levels. And Stephanie is actually doing an amazing job picking off these great names especially, especially if you believe that the upside is still there and the stock maybe was oversold due to this panic with respect to going on a software in general. And I do think the AI theme that everybody seems to want to believe that there's going to be less jobs. I could build your case. There are actually going to be more jobs with some of the situations with respect to engineers. And I don't think we, we don't talk enough about that on this show in terms of the software engineering help that's going to be needed to interpret some of the data as well, yeah,
- [54:58]
Mike Santoli
that's certainly, I guess, the hope. We do want to get to Delta in particular in the airlines, up 5% today. The company did raise first quarter guidance on some strong demand trends. Joe, you do own this one.
- [55:12]
Donald Trump
Of course.
- [55:12]
Mike Santoli
The whole group got got smacked in the last couple of weeks.
- [55:15]
Joe Terranova
So this is obviously the premium airline and they're able to defend against rising costs, whether that's labor or now it's going to be fuel. Remember, they do have Monroe refineries, so they have the ability to access the oil at better pricing levels. I also think they benefited from a pull forward. I think the pull forward came from the consumer recognizing smartly that prices will be much higher for those summer travel trips. And they said they'll get in front of that and book.
- [55:42]
Mike Santoli
Now let's quickly also mention Uber, also up 5% right now. Planning a robot taxi rollout in 28 cities starting next year. Josh, game changer or no?
- [55:53]
Josh Brown
Yes, this is a game changer. They've just made four announcements in the last five days. One was with Wave and Nissan. Another was with Zoox, which is backed by Amazon for Los Angeles and Las Vegas. There was a third one. It probably wasn't that interesting because I already forgot. And then this, which is a really big deal. Nvidia is going to equip all of the OEMs, every car manufacturer you could think of, with the chipset and software that will enable those cars to become autonomous. And once that happens, all of those cars via Nvidia will be ultimately on this Uber network of autonomous options. I think they're checkmating the game. I think the narrative that's driven the stock down from 100 to 70 that like, somehow they were blockbuster. I think you can laugh at that. At this point, they are going to have the broadest network of partners who are offering autonomous rides on their platform. And they'll be the best at it because they always have been.
- [56:55]
Mike Santoli
All right, Josh, thank you. We got to go for the moment, but final trades are up next.
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Josh Brown
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Mike Santoli
Somehow we're almost done. We're back with final trades. Josh, start us off.
- [58:27]
Josh Brown
Remain long Uber.
- [58:29]
Mike Santoli
All right, you just told us why. Excellent, Brian.
- [58:33]
Marco Rubio
Talking the talking to walking the walk. We like the small cap banks. Pinnacle Financial.
- [58:37]
Mike Santoli
All right, Steph.
- [58:39]
Stephanie Link
Bank of America 1.2 times book value is still down 14% from its highs.
- [58:44]
Joe Terranova
And Joe, the end of October, we bought eBay at 81. I was puzzled why we did it. Now I understand why. That's the final trade.
- [58:50]
Mike Santoli
You were puzzled why you bought it, not why you didn't. Excellent. All right. Up 4% today. That's going to do it for halftime. I will see you at 4. Foreign closing bell overtime. The exchange starts now with Kelly.
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Donald Trump
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Marco Rubio
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Donald Trump
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